Hvad bringer fremtiden?

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Gudrun Ravn
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1 Hvad bringer fremtiden? 6. November 2006 IFF Ved Carsten Beck

2 Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning En privat og uafhængig tænketank Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil Kristensen Omverdensanalyser Kurser Scenarier Neutralitet 160 medlemmer 25 ansatte Kunder: DR, TDC, PBS, IKEA, Novo, Skanska

Kristensen Omverdensanalyser Kurser Scenarier

5 Investment in product development Sup. Proces Network Business model Product Core proces Service Sales channel Product system Brand Customer exp. Larry Keeley projects examined. As quoted in MM 2004

6 Value Creation due to product development Sup. Proces Network Business model Product Core proces Service Sales channel Product system Brand Customer exp. Larry Keeley projects examined. As quoted in MM 2004

7 Investment in and value creation due to product development High Investment Value creation Product Core proces Sup. Proces Network Business modal Brand Sales Channel Service Product system Customer exp. Larry Keeley projects examined. As quoted in MM 2004

8 The chances of loosing your leadership position has doubled in the last 20 years Source: McKinsey Q Huyett/Vigurie

10 Fremtidens værktøjskasse Prognoser og megatrends Hårdere konkurrence fokus på ROI Nye konkurrenceparametre i Danmark Nye og skærpede forbrugerkrav Færre rutinefunktioner sfa. større kompleksitet Globalisering Scenarier Sourcing Medarbejderes holdning til nye måder at arbejde på Globale markedsregler eller nationale? Wild-cards Muren og Internettet E-bay, Open Source og Wikipedia overtager verden

større kompleksitet Globalisering Scenarier Sourcing Medarbejderes holdning til nye måder at

11 Growth factors according to global CEOs Mergers Global strategy Technology Public trust Stability in markets Ec.Growth Unique products Qualified coworkers Vision Innovation Deloitte & Touche 6 th annual Global CEO Survey

Growth Unique products Qualified coworkers Vision

12 As a global director I would like to know more about Market Health (Customer prof., satisfaction, suppliers, competitors, brand) Organizational Health (Employee retention, satisfaction, skills, org. Structure, culture, values) Network Health (regulatory changes, gov. Policies, public opinion, community view) Financial Performance (cash, costs, EBITDA, ROI) Operational Health (buildings, inventories, patents, pipeline, production rates) Do not need more information Pct Yes 70% 56% 40% 31% 28% 14% McKinsey responses. CEOs. Public Companies. 68% developed markets, 32% emerging markets

Structure, culture, values) Network Health (regulatory changes, gov.

13 How important are the following factors when evaluating your CEO? How important should they be? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% How important are they? How important should they be? Short term goals Companys long term health People leadership Management of stakeholders Prof. Behavior Other McKinsey responses from CEOs. Public Companies. 68% developed markets, 32% emerging markets

14 Globalisation some trends Wages as % of GDP in G : 62,8 2006: 58,8 The global work force: Before Russia, India and China: 1,5 billion After: 3,0 billion Job destruction per year in US: 30 million Total number of US jobs lost due to outsourcing in services: 1 million In the future: 30% of all US jobs might be at risk US middle income groups have taken the hardest hits Yearly net effect of globalisation per american family: USD Sources: Various studies all reported by the Economist. Sep 2006

outsourcing in services: 1 million In the future: 30% of all US jobs might be at risk US middle income groups have taken the

15 What single factor contributes most to the accelerating pace of change? Innovation in products, services and business models Greater ease of obtaining information Plentiful, cheap, mobile capital Reduction in trade barriers Expanded access to talent and labor pools Rate of technological change More capable competitors Rising consumer awareness and activism Source: McK.Q Number 3 Note: 3453 resp. All saying that pace of change is acc. Note: Global survey of business exc

Reduction in trade barriers Expanded access to talent and labor pools Rate of technological change More capable competitors

16 Trend impact on global business Growth of public sector Social backlash against businesses Shifting industry structure Increasing communication Constraints from natural resources Globalisation of labour markets Greater ease of obtaining information Geographical shift of ec. activity Growing number of consumers/changing tastes Source: McK.Q Number 3 Note: Impact on 5 year scale Note: Global survey of business exc Very important/important Neither or Somwhat important/not important Application of sc. Tech. In business management

of ec. activity Growing number of consumers/changing tastes Source: McK.Q. 2006.

18 Which elements contribute most to an organisations agility and speed 57

20 What does your companys long term strategic planning process do most effectively? Identifies new opportunities for growth Ensure that all managers have the same goals Carries out annual budgeting process Identifies external risks % Source: McK.Q Number 3 Note: 2976 resp. Note: Global survey of business exc.

goals Carries out annual budgeting process Identifies external risks 0 20 40 60 %

21 Management tools: A survey Average number of management tools used per company: 11,34 82% of managers feels that tools promise more than they deliever Little obvious relation exists between specific tools and succesful companies Key factors for succesful use of tools: 1. Major initiative not a limited effort 2. Top-down support And also: Communication, commitment and morale Tool winners (use and satisfaction) from the 1990s: Strategic planning Mission and Vision Statements, Management tools and Techniques: A Survey. Darrell Rigby. Cal. Man. Rev. Vol 43.No US numbers. 300 US managers

22 Forandringsvilje Fortidsorienterede Nutidsorienterede Fremtidsorienterede

23 10 Business Trends 1. The return of the long term 2. Abundance of everything but lack of great ideas 3. The return of CSR 4. Global value chains 5. Polarisation 6. Prosumers 7. Does your work matter? 8. The return of the new economy 9. Goodbye Europe 10. Goodbye youth

24 Your work should matter!

25 Everybody wants to be strategic Marketing Back office Brand owners HR F&A Procurement Supply chain managers COO Art buyers!

26 What happens when you have 96 key performance indicators?

27 New metrics Short Term Long Term Soft Relations to politicians and press Quality of earnings E-communities Values and beliefs Hard Financial stats. Motivation Capabilities

28 Hvordan understøtter man netværk i organisationen Netværk bliver vigtigere ¾ af virksomhederne mener at de er dårlige til at understøtte tværgående netværk De fleste instrumenter er for person eller silo orienterede Fremtid: Identificer de værdiskabende netværk Identificer key drivere eller key persons som bidrager mest til værdiskabelsen Også de skjulte som unddrager sig gængse målemetoder Find dem hvis projektgrupper altid leverer gode resultater Copy/Paste (Og husk at Paste altid er det vanskelige)

29 Hvad indebærer hjemmearbejde? Går ud over privatliv Arbejder mere end ellers Bedre sammenhæng mellem job/privat Bedre overkomme job Djøf 2006 I nogen grad I høj grad

30 Fire værditilvækstlogikker Emotionelle DreamSociety logik Standardisering Automatisering Specialisering Servicering Industrisamfundslogik Mangfoldighed Man-made Skab det selv Involvering Creative Mans logik Vidensamfundslogik Rationelle

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