IT-solutions for energy systems with a large penetration of renewable energy. Henrik Madsen

Transkript

1 IT-solutions for energy systems with a large penetration of renewable energy Henrik Madsen

2 First 8 weeks of 2007 Consequence of MW wind power ~50 pct. of power load Impossible with existing system Already today: Negative prices on North Pool. Plan: 50 pct in 2020! Calls for IT solutions! Demand Wind power To day MW Demand (Figure from Energinet.dk) Wind power

3 Residual need and overflow

4 Power Prices

5 Celle project - Energinet.dk Skjern Syd Hadrup Skerris Tarm Tarm Vest Skodbjerge Knaplund Ådum Kollemorten Give Sdr Omme Hauge Lindbjerg Lummerbæk Nollund Malle Grindsted Horne Jelling Ansager KNABBERUP Hejnsvig Jerlev Bindeballe Nordenskov Nybro Rugstedlund Oksbøl Varde Vorbasse Jegsmark Tobøl Vr Nebel Endrup Gjesing Lilballe Estrupvej Rindby Nygårdsvej Tjæreborg Edelsborg Holsted Bramminge Brørup Vejen Vest Svineryggen Ålegård Vonsild ANDST Nagbøl Vejen Askov Bramminge Øst Føvling Lykkegård Sdr Bjert Vamdrup Skudstrup Skodborg Hjortvad Åstorp Kongeå Gredstedbro Rødding Nord Ribe Nord Brøstrup Ribe Centrum Ribe Revsø Jels Fjelstrup Sommersted Thomashus Gram Vojens Øst Vojens Nord Vojens Vest Frifelt Haderslev Vest Åstrupbro Hammelev Haderslev Øst Vandling Langkær Øsby Hejsager Bevtoft Over Jerstal Tislund Åved Magstrup Nustrup Jegerup Spandet Brøns Tyrstrup Christiansfeld Rødding Syd Sønder Hygum Hviding Rømø SVS Harte Brogård Holsted Syd Gørding BRAMDRUP Højrup Gejsing Surhave Hedelund Vibevej LANDERUPGÅRD Bække Brøndumdam Sædding Egeskovvej FAF Sdr BredstrupvejTreldevej Vilstrup Stovstrup Søbjerg Oldenborggade Børup Sandal Erritsø Taulov Snoghøj Alminde Glejbjerg Juelsminde Præstemarken RYTTERGÅRDEN Lindknud Årre Oksby Barrit Gårslev Egtved Agerbæk Varde Øst Bjerge Grejs Hedensted Lysholt Nr Marken Bredballe Sandegraven Skelvangen Ørumgård Vejle Elværk Sydkajen Vejle Ibæk Strandvej Havn Ulvehaven Vinding Sdr Marken Gauerslund Ollerup Billund Syd Krogager Karlsgårde Mørup Billund Billund Nord Tistrup Glud Årup Grindsted Øst Henne Outrup Lund Bygholm Fussingvej Åboulevarden Horsens Kraftvarmeværk Torsvang Ternevej Løsning Lindved Stilbjerg Grindsted Nord Lerdrup Blirup Krollerup Farre Uhe Elbæk Drosselbo Sønderhov Korning Filskov Ølgod Nr Nebel HATTING Honum Hemmet Østergårde Ås Egebjerg Barslund Nymindegab Gosmer Lille Gedved THYREGOD STOUSTRUP Hoptrup Toftlund Hyrup Skærbæk Øst Skærbæk Syd Agerskov Nr Løgum Løjt Bredebro Ballum Hellevad Løgumkloster Mårbæk Rejsby Hede Kassø Visby Abild Højer Lendemark Rosinfelt Tved Tønder Vest Tønder Nord Tønder Øst Bredevad RødekroBrunde Rise-Hjarup Vest Åbenrå Nord Vennelyst Rødekro Øst Søst Åbenrå Vest Åbenråværket Åbenrå Syd Nordborg Enstedværket Lundsbjerg Bolderslev Jejsing Kliplev Kværs Tinglev Syd Vester Sottrup Alnor Egernsund Rens Guderup Avnbøl Tinglev Nord Gråsten Bajstrup Øster Gejl Bov Frøslev Stevning Blans Felsted Lund Lunden Ballebro 60 k V Havnbjerg Danfoss Mjels Hardeshøj Varnæs Blåkrog Hjordkær Bro QSØ Augustenborg Ragebøl Broager Nord Asserballe Mjang Sønderborg Rojumvej Kastanie Allé Broager Syd Tandslet Sarup Kruså Padborg Stadtwerke Uw-Nord Kort & matrikelstyrelsen (G ) Copyright

6 Celle project (Energinet.dk)

7 Integration - status and alternatives Celle project (ensure stability of the power grid): Planed until 2012 Price: approx. 100 mill kr (Holsted experiment) Focus on hardware Better alternative Use IT solutions: Varying tarifs Flexible consumption Prediction of power prices Prediction of wind power District heating systems Family houses optimization and energy storages

8 Integration - using IT solutions IT solutions implies: DK will benefit from wind power Negative power prices will be avoided Stable power systems using IT Huge savings Improvements of the energy performance of buildings Buildings must take part of the integration of renewable energy Industrial focus on future solutions new possibilities for export of technologies

9 IT tools for forecasting Tools for Predicting the Nord Pool Price About 80 pct of the variation of the price of tomorrow can be predicted today! Tools for Wind Power Prediction WPPT (Wind Power Prediction Tool) is used worldwide Provides reliable forecasts of the uncertainty of the forecast Large variations in the uncertainty Tools for Solar Power Prediction Large variation in the uncertainty Tools for Predicting the Power Load Rather easy task

10 WPPT Wind Power Prediction Tool

11 Prediction of power prices

12 District Heating - Potentials Until now the focus has been on the user not the district heating operation Consequence CHP plants are selling new windows, etc IT possibilities (demonstrated): Predictions of heat load better production planning Control of the supply temperature 4-10 pct savings! Automatic identification of bottle-necks guide on where to improve the net

13 Potentials using Smart Meters Energy labeling (Automatically) Recommendations like Replace the windows Insulation of the roof The house is not tight... Automatic verification of savings Better control Tools for utilization of renewable energy

14 Model for the Energy Dynamics of Buildings Measurements: (Indoor air temperature) Heat supply Ambient air temperature Solar radiation Physical Model

15 MinBolig - Elsparefonden

16 Power Consumption and Smart Meters Economist June 6th, 2009: Studies indicates 7 pct reduction in power use if the price is varying and visible. Studies indicates 15 pct or more during peak hours with added incentives. However, power companies are reluctant to invest in technologies that will reduce consumption of the product they sell. Intelligent household appliances. (CECED is prepared) Standby consumption Monitored by a new system offered by the Electricity Saving Thrust

17 Standby consumption detection

18 What is the potential for renewable energy? Assume that the total power consumption in the world must be covered by wind power How large an area should then be covered by wind turbines? HOWEVER: IT solutions must be utilized and further developed. Total power consumption in the world Total power consumption in the world

19 Conclusion A large potential for renewable energy. In DK we have a unique starting point Introduce variable tarifs Allow for flexible use of different energy sources (eg. natural gas and power) Install smart meters and use dynamic methods In general Use IT solutions! Potential for export of know-how and solutions Why not eg 85 pct renewable energy?