Kommissionen vurderer ti EU-medlemsstaters stabilitets- og konvergensprogrammer

Transkript

1 IP/10/346 Bruxelles, den 24. marts 2010 Kommissionen vurderer ti EU-medlemsstaters stabilitets- og konvergensprogrammer I dag har Europa-Kommissionen vurderet de opdaterede stabilitets- og konvergensprogrammer 1 for Den Tjekkiske Republik, Danmark, Ungarn, Litauen, Luxembourg, Letland, Malta, Polen, Rumænien og Slovenien. Ligesom Kommissionens vurdering af en første gruppe af 14 medlemsstater i sidste uge (see IP/10/288) skal vurderingen ses på baggrund af den økonomiske og finansielle krise, der siden 2009 har medført en kraftig forværring i de offentlige finanser og udløst Rådets afgørelser om at indlede proceduren i forbindelse med uforholdsmæssigt store underskud over for et stort flertal af medlemsstaterne. Blandt den gruppe af lande, der er blevet vurderet i dag, er det kun Danmark og Luxembourg, der har formået at holde deres offentlige underskud under 3 % i 2009, men også disse landes budgetsituation forventes at blive forværret markant i For de fleste lande vil 2010 være kendetegnet ved en finanspolitisk konsolidering i overensstemmelse med henstillingen under proceduren i forbindelse med uforholdsmæssigt store underskud og, for Letlands, Ungarns og Rumæniens vedkommende, med betingelserne i de internationale finansielle bistandsprogrammer. Hvad angår budgetmålene i programmerne, er de vækstantagelser, der ligger til grund for prognoserne, i en række tilfælde optimistiske, specielt for de sidste år, samtidig med at budgetkonsolideringsstrategien ofte ikke er tilstrækkelig understøttet af konkrete foranstaltninger fra 2011 og fremefter. "Den økonomiske og finansielle krise har været til stor skade for de offentlige finanser. Finanspolitiske stimulerende foranstaltninger var nødvendige for at understøtte den økonomiske genopretning, men de seneste to år har revet tæppet væk under 20 års finanspolitisk konsolidering. Det betyder, at senest næste år må vi gradvis vende tilbage til en stram budgetpolitik", udtalte kommissæren for økonomiske og monetære anliggender, Olli Rehn. 1 Ifølge Rådets forordning (EF) nr. 1466/97 om styrkelse af overvågningen af budgetstillinger samt overvågning og samordning af økonomiske politikker skal medlemsstaterne hvert år forelægge opdaterede makroøkonomiske og budgetmæssige prognoser. Disse opdateringer kaldes stabilitetsprogrammer, når de vedrører lande, der har indført euroen, og konvergensprogrammer, når de vedrører lande, der endnu ikke har indført den. Forordningen omtales også som stabilitets- og vækstpagtens "præventive del".

2 Danmark Som reaktion på den økonomiske krise og i overensstemmelse med den europæiske økonomiske genopretningsplan iværksatte Danmark en omfattende finanspolitisk stimulering i 2009 og agter også i 2010 at fastholde en understøttende finanspolitik. Saldoen på statsbudgettet har således foretaget en kraftig vending til et underskud i 2009 og vil blive yderligere forværret i 2010 til over 5 % af BNP. Underskuddet ventes gradvis at indsnævres til under referenceværdien i 2013, men programmet angiver ikke, hvilke foranstaltninger der er nødvendige for at slå ind på konsolideringskursen. Budgetresultaterne vil kunne blive værre end forventet i programmet på mellemlang sigt på grund af ret så gunstige vækstantagelser for tiden efter For at opnå en holdbar udvikling i de offentlige finanser består hovedudfordringen i gennem fortsatte reformer at øge udbuddet af arbejdskraft. Danmark opfordres til at øge indsatsen for at sikre, at den planlagte overskridelse af referenceværdien på 3 % af BNP holdes under kontrol, og til at angive, hvilke foranstaltninger der vil blive truffet for at understøtte budgetkonsolideringen. Czech Republic The programme foresees a reduction of the headline deficit from 6.6% of GDP in 2009 to 3% of GDP in 2013, in line with the Council recommendation of 2 December The authorities have started implementing a sizeable consolidation package already in 2010, with a planned budgetary adjustment of around 2% of GDP in structural terms. Despite the expected economic recovery, the improvement in the structural balance is however projected to slow down markedly in 2011 and The fiscal adjustment in these years relies on expenditure cuts which however are not supported by concrete measures. Moreover, the programme does not provide information on how to achieve the reduction of the deficit projected for Finally, weaknesses in the fiscal framework and high risks to the long-term sustainability of public finances remain causes for concern. Against this background, the invitations to the Czech Republic refer to the need for the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit to support the consolidation programme for by a more concrete package of measures, improving enforcement of the fiscal framework and implementing reforms with a view of improving the long-term sustainability of public finances. Hungary Hungary's budget balance remained broadly stable in 2009 in comparison with one year earlier. The strong economic deterioration associated with the global economic downturn and its negative effects on fiscal balance were broadly compensated by expenditure cuts. For 2010, the programme targets a similar headline deficit at 3.8% of GDP. For 2011 and 2012, the budget deficit is expected to decline to 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively, although relying on measures that have not been fully specified in the programme. This deficit reduction path would allow the country to abrogate its excessive deficit in 2011, in line with the Council recommendation of 7 July Government debt should peak in 2010 at almost 80% of GDP and then decline to 73% by In the outer years, the budgetary outcomes could be worse than projected, due to slightly optimistic growth projections. Additionally, due to the lack of specific decisions backing the necessary consolidating measures, expenditure targets are also subject to considerable risks. As for the deficit figures, debt developments could be less favourable. Hungary is invited to correct the excessive deficit, to improve the quality of public finances and moderate expenditures through a further reform of public administration and structural reforms addressing loss-making enterprises. 2

3 Latvia Following a period of economic overheating, the global financial crisis compounded a sharp reversal of the domestic cycle and financial sector difficulties, prompting a request for international financial assistance. After years of pro-cyclical policy, a strong fiscal adjustment was needed: the 2009 supplementary budget implied a consolidation effort of 4.4% of GDP, and the 2010 budget entails a further effort of over 4.2%. This last step is consistent with the 2010 deficit target previously agreed with international lenders, as are the 2011 and 2012 deficits planned in the programme. Risks for the programme, related to economic developments and the size of the remaining consolidation appear sizeable but overall balanced. Against this assessment, Latvia is invited to take necessary steps to correct the excessive deficit in compliance with both the Council recommendation of 7 July 2009 and with the conditions attached to EU balance of payments assistance, by fully implementing the 2010 budget and preparing options for consolidation measures to be included in the 2011 budget. Other policy invitations relate to fiscal governance and transparency, reform of the social benefits and measures to foster economic growth. Lithuania Lithuania envisages a continuation of sizeable fiscal consolidation measures with a view to bringing the deficit from 9.1% of GDP in 2009 to 3% of GDP by 2012, as recommended by the Council on 16 February Yet, the budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected, given the reliance on favourable growth assumptions for 2010 and the limited information on measures to underpin the achievement of the targets in outer years. The Lithuanian economy is currently emerging from a severe recession. Average growth is projected to remain considerably lower over the mediumterm than in the upswing of the previous cycle. The current economic challenge is to restore sustainable growth while avoiding any relapse into significant internal and external imbalances. Ambitious structural reforms that aim to strengthen the sustainability of public finances and to underpin the economic recovery are needed, as foreseen in the programme. Against this background, the invitations to Lithuania refer to strengthening the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and backing up the consolidation path with specific measures, implementing structural reforms, and improving the medium-term fiscal framework. Luxembourg The general government balance turned into a deficit in 2009, reflecting the working of automatic stabilisers as well as the impact of fiscal stimulus measures in line with the EERP. According to the programme, the deficit will increase from 1.1% of GDP in 2009 to 3.9% of GDP in 2010, while the debt to GDP ratio will remain low. The deficit will be slowly returning to 3.1% of GDP in 2014 under a no-policy-change scenario. This pace of consolidation does not represent a sufficient progress towards the medium-term objective of 0.5% of GDP surplus in structural terms. In view of the projected deficit path under the no-policy-change scenario and the large increase in age-related public spending projected for the coming decades, the invitations to Luxembourg refer to the need to start fiscal consolidation as from 2011, to specify the consolidation measures, and to reform its pension system with the aim of improving the long-term sustainability of its public finances. 3

4 Malta According to the stability programme the deficit ratio should broadly stabilise in 2010, at 3.9% of GDP, followed by a drop below 3% in 2011, in line with the Council recommendation of 16 February 2010, and stabilising thereafter. The debt ratio is projected to peak at almost 69% in The deficit and debt ratios could be higher than planned throughout the programme period. On the one hand, the programme does not adequately specify the measures needed to achieve the deficit targets, while on the other hand additional consolidation measures could be needed should the economic growth and revenue increases turn out lower than projected or should expenditure slippages materialises. In addition to achieving a sound budgetary position and improving long-term sustainability, Malta faces the challenge of strengthening competitiveness to improve the economy's resilience. Against this background, the invitations addressed to Malta concern the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit and move to a medium-term sustainable position and improvements to long-term sustainability as well as to the budgetary framework. Poland The programme envisages bringing the deficit from 7.2% of GDP in 2009 to 2.9% of GDP by 2012, in line with the Council recommendation of 7 July However, fiscal consolidation is heavily back loaded as most of the deficit reduction is projected to take place in Moreover, the budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected in the programme. The projections are based on favourable macroeconomic assumptions and the planned expenditure savings in 2011 and 2012 are not supported by sufficiently concrete measures. In view of the recovery projected by the authorities from 2010, and of the large structural government deficit, a more front loaded fiscal consolidation strategy would be appropriate. The programme sets out measures to strengthen the current fiscal framework, but more ambitious reforms are needed. The invitations to Poland address the need to correct the excessive deficit by front loading the fiscal adjustment, back up the consolidation path with specific measures and seek more ambitious reforms to improve the fiscal framework. Romania Romania aims at the reduction of the general government deficit form 8% of GDP in 2009 to 3% of GDP in 2012, in line with the Council Recommendation of 16 February The planned fiscal adjustment is front loaded with a greater consolidation effort envisaged for 2010 and 2011 than for A full implementation of the consolidation measures foreseen for 2010 is essential to reach the 6.3% of GDP deficit target set for that year. However, the convergence programme does not sufficiently specify the consolidation measures to be taken in 2011 and 2012 although additional information is expected to be included in the forthcoming Medium-Term Budgetary Framework. Moreover, implementation of the fiscal governance reforms decided upon within the context of the EU balance of payments assistance programme to Romania should help in achieving the budgetary targets for these years. Adoption and implementation of the draft pension reform will be crucial in improving the long-term sustainability of public finances. The invitations to Romania concern the specification and implementation of fiscal consolidation measures to correct the excessive deficit, improvements of the fiscal framework, and the adoption and implementation of the draft pension law. 4

5 Slovenia The programme estimates the general government deficit to have increased from 1.8% of GDP in 2008 to 5.7% in 2009, and that it will stabilise in The deficit ratio is then targeted to return below the 3% of GDP threshold in 2013, in line with the 2 December 2009 Council recommendation, thanks to an expenditure-based consolidation effort. From 34.4% of GDP in 2009, the gross debt ratio is planned to increase further until 2011 to then broadly stabilise at some 42% of GDP. The deficit and debt ratios could turn out higher than targeted in light of the optimistic revenue projections in 2010 followed by favourable growth assumptions after 2011, the possibility of expenditure overruns and the fact that the measures underpinning the envisaged consolidation have not yet been fully specified and adopted. There remain high risks with regard to the longterm sustainability of public finances as a result of a high projected increase in pension expenditure over the coming decades. Invitations to Slovenia concern the budgetary strategy to correct the excessive deficit, improvements to the fiscal framework and quality of public finances as well as a further reform of the pension system and a more ambitious medium-term budgetary strategy. The country-specific Commission recommendations for a Council opinion on each programme are available at: 5

6 Czech Republic CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. CP Feb General government revenue COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. General government expenditure General government balance Cyclically-adjusted balance 1 CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Oct n.a. 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 2.4%, 2.0%, 2.0% and 2.2% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.2% of GDP in 2009 (deficit reducing) and -0.1% in 2010 and 2011 (deficitincreasing) according to the most recent programme and 0.3% of GDP in 2009, 0.2% of GDP in 2010 and 0.1% of GDP in 2011(all deficit-reducing) in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast. Convergence programme (CP); Commission services autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations 6

7 Denmark CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct n.a. n.a. n.a. n Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct General government revenue CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct General government CP Feb expenditure COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct General government balance Cyclically-adjusted balance 1 CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Feb COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n CP Oct Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.4%, 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.9% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 1.4% of GDP in 2009, 1.7% in 2010, 1.1% in 2011, 0.9% in 2012, 0.8% in 2013 and 0.0% in 2015; all deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2009 and 0.6% in 2010; all deficit-reducing according to the Commission services' autumn forecast. Due to differencees in methodology, the one-offs reported in the programme does not qualify as one-offs according to the Commission Services' definition. Using this definition, the one-offs would be 0.3%-of-GDP deficit reducing in 2010 and zero in the remaining years. Convergence programme (CP); Commission services autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations. 7

8 Hungary Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis General government revenue General government expenditure General government balance Cyclically-adjusted balance CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 0.8%, 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.4% of GDP in 2008, 0.1% in 2009 both deficit-reducing and 0.2% of GDP in 2010 deficit increasing according to the most recent programme and 0.3% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1% in 2009, all deficit-reducing, in the Commission services' November 2009 forecast. Convergence programme (CP); Commission services November 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations 8

9 Latvia Net lending/borrowing visà-vis CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. General government CP Jan revenue COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. General government CP Jan expenditure COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. General government CP Jan balance COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. Cyclically-adjusted CP Jan balance 1 COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.6%, -1.4%, -2.3% and -2.1% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. Convergence programme (CP); Commission services autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations 9

10 Lithuania Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis General government revenue General government expenditure General government balance Cyclically-adjusted balance CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. CP Jan COM Nov n.a. CP Jan n.a. 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 3.0%, -0.2%, -1.2% and -0.3% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.5% of GDP in 2008, 0.2% of GDP in 2009 and 0.3% in 2010; all deficitimproving; and 0.3% of GDP in 2011 and 0.3% of GDP in 2012; all deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2008, 0.6% in 2009 and 0.7% in 2010; all deficitreducing in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast. Convergence programme (CP); Commission services autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations 10

11 Luxembourg Net lending/borrowing visà-vis SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n SP Jan n.a. n COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n.a. n SP Jan 2010 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n COM Nov n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. SP Oct 2008 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n General government SP Jan revenue COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n General government SP Jan expenditure COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n General government SP Jan balance COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. Cyclically-adjusted balance 1 SP Oct n.a. n.a. n.a. n SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n.a. n SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Oct n.a. n.a. n 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 3.6%, 2.0%, 1.9% and 2.2% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off or other temporary measures from year 2010 to year 2014 according to the most recent programme and to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast. Stability programme (SP); Commission services autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations. 11

12 Malta - Output gap 2 Net lending/borrowing visà-vis General government revenue General government expenditure General government balance Cyclically-adjusted balance 2 Structural balance SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. SP Feb COM Nov n.a. SP Dec n.a. 1 The Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast was prepared on a pre-budget basis. 2 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission. services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 3 Based on estimated potential growth of 1.3%, 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.6% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are 0.3% of GDP in 2008, 0.1% in 2009, 0.2% in 2010, 0.1% in both 2011 and 2012, all deficit-reducing according to the most recent programme, and 0.4% of GDP in 2008 deficitincreasing and 0.2% in 2009 deficit-reducing in the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast. Stability programme (SP); Commission services autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations 12

13 Poland Net lending/borrowing visà-vis CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. General government CP Feb revenue COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. General government CP Feb expenditure COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. General government CP Feb balance COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. Cyclically-adjusted CP Feb balance 1 COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. CP Feb COM Nov n.a. CP Dec n.a. 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 5.0%, 4.2%, 3.7% and 3.3% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. There are no one-off measures according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2009, deficit-reducing, in the Commission services' Autumn 2009 forecast. Convergence programme (CP); Commission services autumn forecast (COM); Commission services calculations 13

14 Romania Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis General government revenue General government expenditure General government balance Cyclically-adjusted balance CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. CP Mar COM Nov n.a. CP Jun n.a. 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 5.1%, 3.4%, 2.9% and 2.5% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. Convergence programme (CP); Commission services autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations 14

15 Slovenia Net lending/borrowing visà-vis SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr 2009 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. SP Jan 2010 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr 2009 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. General government SP Jan revenue COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. General government SP Jan expenditure COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. General government SP Jan balance COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. Cyclically-adjusted SP Jan balance 1 COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. SP Jan COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. SP Jan 2010 n.a COM Nov n.a. n.a. SP Apr n.a. n.a. 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances from the programmes as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the information in the programmes. 2 Based on estimated potential growth of 3.3%, 1.2%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in the period Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. One-off and other temporary measures are zero according to the most recent programme and 0.1% of GDP in 2009, deficit-increasing, according to the Commission services' autumn 2009 forecast. 4 CPI instead of projections. Stability programme (SP); Commission services autumn 2009 forecasts (COM); Commission services calculations. 15