Da Yoshihiko Noda var tre år gammel i 1960, så han i fjernsynet, at lederen af Japans

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1 En helt almindelig mand PETER HARMSEN 2. september 2011 Da Yoshihiko Noda var tre år gammel i 1960, så han i fjernsynet, at lederen af Japans Socialistparti, Inejiro Asanuma, var blevet stukket ihjel af en ung højreradikal.»politikere lever livet farligt,«sagde hans mor. Måske er det derfor, at Noda gennem hele sit voksenliv har holdt en lav profil. Selv nu, hvor den i mellemtiden 54 år gamle karrierepolitiker er blevet premierminister og har fået ansvaret for verdens tredjestørste økonomi, gør han en dyd ud af at falde i med tapetet.»jeg er en helt almindelig mand, og jeg har ikke særlig mange penge. Jeg er ikke specielt tjekket, og mit udseende er ikke min stærke side,«siger Noda.»Jeg er ikke nogen guldfisk.«noda, der har været finansminister i 14 måneder, blev valgt til leder af det regerende Demokratiske Parti mandag, og dagen efter fik han så landets højeste politiske post. Han kommer til på et tidspunkt, hvor Japans problemer tårner sig op. Han skal genopbygge Japans nordøstlige del, der blev raseret af jordskælvet og tsunamien i marts, og hvor man stadig forsøger at få et atomkraftværk under kontrol. Samtidig skal han styrke landets konkurrenceevne, som er blevet udhulet af en høj kurs på yen.

2 Det er opgaver her og nu. Når eller hvis de bliver løst, står Noda, eller hvem der måtte sidde i hans stol til den tid, over for langt mere fundamentale udfordringer, inklusive en af verdens største gældsbyrder, en af Asiens laveste vækstrater og en af klodens ældste befolkninger. Alt sammen er det problemer, han skal forsøge at løse i en vanskelig og nogle gange ligefrem fjendtlig politisk atmosfære. Hans eget parti er splittet oven på et konfliktfyldt formandsvalg, og oppositionen kan blokere for ethvert lovforslag, det ikke bryder sig om. Vendepunktet? Samtidig får han kun opbakning fra ni procent af de japanske vælgere, ifølge en meningsmåling offentliggjort mandag. Alligevel er der enkelte optimister. En af dem er Jiro Ushio, vicedirektør for et program for politiske talenter, som Noda deltog i som ung nybagt statskundskabskandidat.»jeg tror, Japan lige nu befinder sig ved et kritisk vendepunkt, som kan bestemme dets fremtid. Jeg håber, at Noda vil opbygge et system, som kan forene Japan og afværge national krise ved at udnytte det japanske folks visdom. Jeg tror, han kan klare det,«siger Ushio til avisen Yomiuri Shimbun.

3 Hvis han ikke klarer det, ser det sort ud for hans parti op til næste parlamentsvalg, som skal holdes inden udgangen af Demokraterne kom til magten i 2009 med et løfte om politisk fornyelse efter et halvt århundrede domineret af det Liberale Demokratiske Parti. I stedet er det blevet mere af det samme - endeløse skænderier uden seriøse forsøg på at tackle Japans mange strukturelle problemer. Noda er oppe imod hårde odds, og måske skruer han med sin beskedne stil bevidst forventningerne ned. Og hvis han så viser sig som en kompetent leder, vil det være en positiv overraskelse. Men selv om det måtte være planen, er der kun ringe chancer for succes, ifølge Tomohito Shinoda, en politolog ved Japans Internationale Universitet i byen Minamiuonuma.»Som finansminister har han intet foretaget sig, der tyder på egentlige lederevner. Han har simpelt hen gjort, hvad embedsmændene i finansministeriet har bedt ham gøre. Det kan han ikke længere nøjes med. Nu må vi så se, hvordan han klarer sit nye job. Det er da muligt, han har nogle talenter, vi ikke kender til,«siger han. Noda roser sig af, at han i 24 år i træk regelmæssigt stillede sig op ved togstationen i sit valgdistrikt nær Tokyo for at komme i dialog med sine vælgere. Det er det lange, seje træk, som er hans varemærke. Desværre er det nok præcis det modsatte, der er brug for lige nu. Nummer seks på fem år

4 Noda er premierminister nummer seks siden Og hvis han virkelig er så gennemsnitlig, som han selv siger, og kun når at regere i et års tid ligesom sine forgængere, så er det slet ikke nok til at tage sig af alle de mange udfordringer, der venter.»han er elskværdig og holder en lav profil. Men hans chancer for at gøre det bedre end sine forgængere er ikke særlig store. Han er sårbar. Hans klike er ikke særlig stor. Han har ingen erfaring med diplomati eller sikkerhedspolitik,«siger Takashi Inoguchi, en ekspert i japansk politik ved Tokyos Universitet. Det demonstrerede Noda i sidste måned, da han allerede var på tale som ny premierminister. Direkte adspurgt gentog officerssønnen Noda det synspunkt, at japanske krigsforbrydere henrettet af de allierede efter Anden Verdenskrig egentlig ikke var»rigtige«forbrydere. Det vakte vrede især i Sydkorea, en gammel japansk koloni, men heller ikke Kina var fornøjet.»høg bliver Japans næste premierminister,«skrev det statskontrollerede kinesiske dagblad Global Times tirsdag. Kina har også bidt mærke i, at Noda nægter at tage afstand fra politikere, der aflægger besøg i Yasukunihelligdommen i Tokyo, viet de dræbte i Japans mange krige. Det er muligt, at Noda er drevet af taktiske overvejelser, og simpelthen forsøger at indynde sig hos nationalistiske elementer i sit eget parti. Men samtidig har han også signaleret principiel bekymring over Kinas voksende ambitioner, som blandt andet bliver afspejlet i en ulmende konfrontation om omstridte afsnit af Det Østkinesiske Hav.»Kinas militære formåen vokser hastigt, og det rækker længere og længere ud med sine militære aktiviteter. Kombineret med manglende gennemsigtighed omkring Kinas strategiske hensigter er

5 det en kilde til stor uro ikke bare for Japan, men for hele regionen,«skriver Noda i en artikel i det seneste nummer af månedsmagasinet Bungei Shunju. Økonomisk er Noda konservativ, delvis et resultat af to år i finansministeriet, som først viceminister og derefter minister. Han vil have styr på landets løbske gæld og mener, at første skridt skal være en fordobling af momsen til ti procent. Men kritikere peger på, at en højere skat ville være malplaceret netop nu, hvor Japan har behov for mere forbrug til at sætte økonomien i gang oven på jordskælvet i marts.»han har stædigt holdt fast i at fordoble momsen, selv om vi stadig forsøger at komme os efter en af de værste katastrofer i vores historie. Der står for meget på spil for Japans fremtid til, at en enkelt premierminister skal have lov til at spille hasard med det i løbet af sin kortlivede embedsperiode,«siger Yuki Asaba, der forsker i politik ved Yamaguchi Universitetet. Ikke nogen fighter Nogen poker-spiller er Noda ikke, men han har det sorte bælte i judo og skal efter sigende også være en ynder af professionel brydning. Alligevel har han ikke ry for at være nogen fighter, og mens det kan være en fordel, når der skal bygges bro internt hos Demokraterne og over for oppositionen, kan det også forhindre ham i at opnå resultater i den barske politiske hverdag, der nu vinker forude.

6 »Han taler høfligt, selv til sine assistenter. Det skaber sympati hos de ledende kræfter i hans eget parti og i oppositionen, men det efterlader også det indtryk, at han er nem at manipulere, fordi han er så ydmyg,«siger en anonym lovgiver til dagbladet Asahi Shimbun. Måske ikke den bedste mand til at sætte en kæp i den politiske svingdør, så Japan kan få en premierminister, der holder længe nok til at begynde at danne sig nogle visioner om, hvor landet skal bevæge sig hen. Men det ville måske også kræve mere end et enkelt viljestærkt individ. Snarere ville en reform af hele det politiske system være nødvendig. Iagttagere peger på det i den sammenhæng uhensigtsmæssige i, at parlamentet er opdelt i to kamre. Mens Underhuset kan udnævne premierministeren, har Overhuset mulighed for at blokere for lovforslag. Så hvis oppositionen dominerer Overhuset, sådan som tilfældet er nu, har regeringslederen et stort problem.»jeg tror ikke, at politiske reformer er lige om hjørnet. Den vigtigste opgave i øjeblikket er at genopbygge de ødelagte områder efter jordskælvet i marts. Politisk reform er til gengæld så kontroversielt, at det ville kræve politikernes fulde opmærksomhed og al deres energi. Og det er der simpelthen ikke råd til lige nu,«siger Shinoda fra Japans Internationale Universitet. An ordinary man PETER Harmsen 2nd September 2011

7 Since Yoshihiko Noda was three years old in 1960, he saw in television, the leader of Japan's Socialist Party, Inejiro Asanuma was stabbed by a young radical right. "Politicians live life dangerous," said his mother. Perhaps this is why Noda throughout his adult life has kept a low profile. Even now, when the now 54 years old career politician, has been prime minister and has assumed responsibility for the world's third largest economy, he makes a virtue of falling into the crowd. "I'm an ordinary man, and I have not very much money. I'm not specifically checked, and my appearance is not my strong side, "says Noda. "I'm not a goldfish." Noda, who has been finance minister for 14 months, was elected leader of the ruling Democratic Party on Monday and the day after, he saw the country's highest political post. He comes at a time when Japan's problems are piling up. He must rebuild Japan's north-east, which was ravaged by the earthquake and tsunami in March, where they still try to get a nuclear plant under control. At the same time he must strengthen its competitiveness, which has been eroded by a high rate of the yen. The task here and now. When or if they are solved, says Noda, or who had to sit in his chair to the time of the far more fundamental challenges, including one of the largest debt burdens, one of Asia's lowest growth rates and one of the world's oldest populations. All of this is the problems he must try to resolve a difficult and sometimes downright hostile political atmosphere.

8 His own party is split on top of a conflictual chairman election, and the opposition can block any bill it dislikes. The turning point? While he gets backing from only nine percent of Japanese voters, according to a poll published Monday. Yet there are few optimists. One of them is Jiro Ushio, deputy director of a program for political talents Noda attended as a young fresh-baked political science graduate. "I think that Japan currently finds itself at a critical turning point that could determine its future. I hope that Noda would build a system that can unite Japan and avert national crisis by taking advantage of the Japanese people's wisdom. I think he can handle it, "said Ushio to the newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun. If he is not doing it, it looks bleak for his party in the forthcoming parliamentary elections to be held before the end of The Democrats came to power in 2009 with a promise of political renewal after half a century dominated by the Liberal Democratic Party. Instead it has become more of the same - endless quarrels without serious attempts to tackle Japan's many structural problems.

9 Noda is up against tough odds, and maybe he screws with his modest style conscious expectations down. And if he shows himself as a competent leader, it will be a positive surprise. But although it might be the plan, there is little chance of success, according Tomohito Shinoda, a political scientist at the Japan International University in the city Minamiuonuma. "As finance minister he has done nothing to suggest actual leadership skills. He has simply done what officials at the Finance Ministry has asked him to do. He can no longer enough. Now we see how he does his new job. It's possible he has some talent, we do not know, "he says. Noda boasts that he is 24 years in a row regularly stood up at the train station in his election district near Tokyo to enter into dialogue with its constituents. It's the long haul, which is his trademark. Unfortunately, it's probably exactly the opposite that is needed right now. Number six in five years Noda's sixth prime minister since And if he really is as mean as he himself says, and only when to reign in a year's time, like its predecessors, so it's not enough to take care of all the many challenges that await. "He is amiable and keeps a low profile. But his chances of making it better than its predecessors is not very large.

10 He is vulnerable. His faction is not very large. He has no experience in diplomacy or security, "said Takashi Inoguchi, an expert on Japanese politics at Tokyo University. It demonstrated Noda last month when he was already considered as new prime minister. When asked directly repeated officer son Noda view that Japanese war criminals executed by the Allies after World War II really were not 'real' criminals. This aroused anger especially in South Korea, an ancient Japanese colony, but not China was delighted. "Hawk becomes Japan's next prime minister," wrote the state-controlled Chinese newspaper Global Times on Tuesday. China is also extremely aware that Noda refuses to distance themselves from politicians who are visiting the Yasukunihelligdommen in Tokyo dedicated those killed in Japan's many wars. It is possible that Noda is driven by tactical considerations, and simply trying to ingratiate itself with nationalist elements in his own party. But while he has also signaled fundamental concern over China's growing ambitions, among other things are reflected in a simmering confrontation on controversial section of the East China Sea. "China's military capability is growing rapidly and it goes further and further out of its military activities. Combined with a lack of transparency about China's strategic intentions are a source of great anxiety not only for Japan but for the entire region, "writes Noda in an article in the latest issue of the monthly magazine Bungei Shunju. Economically, Noda conservative, partly a result of two years in Finance, first deputy minister and then minister.

11 He will be in control of the country's runaway debt, and believes that the first step should be a doubling of the VAT to ten percent. But critics point out that higher taxation would be misplaced just when Japan needs more consumption to put the economy in time on the earthquake in March. "He has stubbornly stuck to a doubling of the VAT, although we are still trying to get us after one of the worst disasters in our history. There is too much at stake for Japan's future to a single prime minister should be allowed to gamble with it during his short-lived term in office, "says Yuki Asaba, researcher in politics at Yamaguchi University. Not a Fighter Any poker player is not Noda, but he has a black belt in judo and also said to be a guardian of professional wrestling. Yet he has no reputation for being a fighter, and while it may be an advantage when building a bridge internally at the Democrats and against the opposition, it can also prevent him from achieving results in the harsh political life, now beckons ahead. "He speaks politely, even to his assistants. It creates sympathy among the leaders in his own party and the opposition, but it also leaves the impression that he is easy to manipulate, because he is so humble, "says an anonymous legislator newspaper Asahi Shimbun. Maybe not the best man to put a stick in the political revolving door so that Japan can get a prime minister who lasts long enough to begin to get some vision about where the country should move

12 forward. But it might also require more than one strong-willed individual. Rather would reform the whole political system may be necessary. Analysts point to it in the context inappropriateness of the parliament is divided into two chambers. While the House may appoint the Prime Minister, the House of Lords to block the bill. So if the opposition dominates the upper house, as is the case now, the Chief Executive a major problem. "I do not think that political reform is just around the corner. The most important task at present is to rebuild the devastated areas after the earthquake in March. Political reform is to turn so controversial that it would require the full attention of politicians and all their energy. And there is simply not afford right now, "says Shinoda of Japan International University.