Gasmarkedsintegration - og betydningen for Danmark. DG gastekniske dage i Vejle d. 19. Maj, 2009

Transkript

1 Gasmarkedsintegration - og betydningen for Danmark DG gastekniske dage i Vejle d. 19. Maj, 009

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4 De traditionelle naturgasproducerende lande i EU registrerer i disse år store fald i naturgasreserver Forventet udvikling for Europas gasproduktion, import og forbrug Naturgas Forventet forbrug Import øvrige Import Rusland Import Norge 4 %* Produktion Europa 16 %* Differencen på 384 BCM svarer til det samlede forbrug i 007 for følgende lande: *Af totalt forbrug Danmark Sverige Tyskland Storbritannien Holland Belgien Spanien Italien Frankrig Gas EU 7 Baseret på tal fra EU Kommission, (EU Directorate-General for Research og Directorate-General for Energy and Transport) 4

5 aftagende reserver vil blive erstattet af import fra fjerntliggende egne Mia. tønder olieækvivalenter 77 Rusland Gas Olie Europa Nordamerika Norges andel: 5% Norges andel: 47% Asien/Pacific Centralasien* Afrika Syd- og Mellemamerika Australien Mellemøsten (ex. Iran) Iran Kilde: BP World Statistic * Centralasien: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan 5

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7 Den danske naturgasinfrastruktur Det danske transmissionssystem DONG Energys offshore rørledninger Det danske distributionssystem Andre transmissionssystemer Sverige Gaslager Danmark Swedegas Nybro gasbehandlingsanlæg Platforme Ll. Torup Leveringspunkt Harald Nordsøen Leveringspunkt Syd Arne Tyra Vest Leveringspunkt Tyra Nybro Stenlille Partly owned Nogat F/ km Deudan Tyskland 7

8 Det danske naturgasforbrug er aftagende, men vil fortsat spille en central rolle i den danske energiforsyning Udviklingen i det danske naturgasforbrug Forventet vækst 05 p.a.: 0, % 4.33 BCM BCM 05 Den fremtidige danske efterspørgselsudvikling Kilde: Energistyrelsen. Fremskrivninger juni 008, Energistyrelsens nye basisfremskrivning inkl. konsekvenser af Energiaftalen af Feb

9 Den danske gasproduktion udgør i øjeblikket ca milliarder kubikmeter per år. Dermed har Danmark et nettooverskud af naturgas Historisk dansk produktion og forbrug af naturgas BCM mia. m3 Hovedparten af den danske produktion er historisk set blevet importeret fra Nordsøen til det dansk-svenske marked Det har medført et standardiseret udbud af naturgas med en stabil naturgaskvalitet på disse markeder Produktion Forbrug Kilde: Energistyrelsen, "Danmarks olie og gasproduktion", 007 9

10 det overskydende naturgasudbud er indtil videre er blevet eksporteret til Tyskland, Holland og Sverige (DONG Energy 008) North Sea NL SE DE BCM ved 15 grader Celsius Kilde: DONG Annual Report

11 den danske naturgasproduktion er kraftigt aftagende, hvilket efter al sandsynlighed vil føre til en nettoimport af naturgas. Hvornår? Forventet udvikling i dansk produktion og forbrug af naturgas BCM mia. m Produktion Forbrug i Danmark Kilde: Energistyrelsen, "Danmarks olie og gasproduktion",

12 den danske naturgasproduktion er kraftigt aftagende, hvilket efter al sandsynlighed vil føre til en nettoimport af naturgas. Hvornår? Forventet udvikling i dansk produktion og forbrug af naturgas BCM mia. m Produktion 3 Forbrug i Danmark Forbrug i Danmark og Sverige Kilde: Energistyrelsen, "Danmarks olie og gasproduktion", 007 1

13 den danske naturgasproduktion er kraftigt aftagende, hvilket efter al sandsynlighed vil føre til en nettoimport af naturgas. Hvornår? Forventet udvikling i dansk produktion og forbrug af naturgas BCM mia. m Fra og med perioden omkring bliver det nødvendigt at importere naturgas til det dansk-svenske marked 1 Produktion 3 Forbrug i Danmark Forbrug i Danmark og Sverige 4 Energistyrelsens reviderede produktionsprognose Kilde: Energistyrelsen, "Danmarks olie og gasproduktion",

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15 Hvad er markedsintegration? Succesfuld markedsintegration afhænger af velfungerende rammebetingelser: 1. De fysiske rammebetingelser - Infrastruktur: pipelines, LNG terminaler, lagre, osv. Aktiviteter på gasmarkeder. De virtuelle rammebetingelser - De regulatoriske rammebetingelser samt markedsmodeller og adgangsregler Fysiske rammer Virtuelle rammer - Særskilt fokus på grænseoverskridende problemstillinger

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17 Hvad sker der med de danske forsyninger post-01? DONG Energy E&P North 1 Sea Naturgasleverancer til Danmark 1 DONG Energy E&P: Produktion fra den danske Nordsø og andre produktionsområder 17

18 Hvad sker der med de danske forsyninger post-01? DONG Energy E&P Russisk gas North 1 Sea Naturgasleverancer til Danmark 1 DONG Energy E&P Russisk gas: I forbindelse med etableringen af Nord Stream pipelinen over Østersøen vil russisk import komme til at udgøre en større andel af den danske forsyningsportefølje 18

19 Hvad sker der med de danske forsyninger post-01? LNG import DONG Energy E&P Russisk gas Gate Terminal Naturgasleverancer til Danmark North 1 Sea DONG Energy E&P Russisk gas LNG: Flydende naturgas importeret med skib vil blive en vigtig del af DONG Energys portefølje 19

20 Hvad sker der med de danske forsyninger post-01? LNG import DONG Energy E&P Norsk import Russisk gas Nordvesteuropa Naturgasleverancer til Danmark Samlede gasleverancer til det Nordvesteuropæis ke marked 3 4 North 1Sea DONG Energy E&P Russisk gas LNG Norsk produktion: Skanled pipelinen. 0

21 Hvad sker der med de danske forsyninger post-01? LNG import DONG Energy E&P Norsk import Russisk gas Nordvesteuropa Naturgasleverancer til Danmark Samlede gasleverancer til det Nordvesteuropæis ke marked 3 4 North 1Sea? DONG Energy E&P Russisk gas LNG 1 Norsk produktion: Skanled pipelinen. er netop blevet aflyst

22 Hvad sker der med de danske forsyninger post-01? LNG import DONG Energy E&P Norsk import Russisk gas Nordvesteuropa Naturgasleverancer til Danmark Samlede gasleverancer til det Nordvesteuropæis ke marked 3 4 North 1Sea? DONG Energy E&P Russisk gas LNG Norsk produktion: stadigvæk mulighed for norsk gas gennem Tyskland

23 Fremtidens Nordvesteuropæiske naturgasinfrastruktur Dansk naturgaskvalitet NYBRO Russisk naturgaskvalitet Norsk naturgaskvalitet (55 bcm/y) (1 bcm/y) (55,5 bcm/y) Russisk naturgaskvalitet LNG varierende naturgaskvalitet Etzel (011) Nüttermoor (008) Peckensen (010)

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25 Det nuværende tyske markedssystem per 1/ Tyskland har historisk set været inddelt i et utal af L-cal og H-cal markedsområder Transport igennem Tyskland har derfor altid været meget besværligt På grund af Tysklands status som et transitland er denne kompleksitet med til at forringe den danske forsyningssikkerhed Den tyske regering ønsker to markedsområder; Ét for L-cal og ét for H-cal 5

26 Den fremtidige sammensmeltning af de tyske markedsområder Market Area Nord Wingas, Ontras, Gasunie, Dong Energy pipelines og StatoilHydro vil sammenlægge deres markedsområder under navet Market Area H-Nord i slutningen af 009 Det nye marked vil indeholde 10 entry-punkter og en teknisk kapacitet på 69 mio. m3 per dag Markedsintegration kræver: Fælles regler for naturgastransport inklusiv naturgaskvalitet Harmoniserede adgangsregler for naturgastransport Harmoniseret regulering mellem lande Yderligere pres for virtuel integration via EUs tredje energipakke 6

27 Kombinationen af den fysiske og virtuelle markedsintegration vil forårsage skabelsen af et fælles Nordvesteuropæisk markedsområde Opkobling af Danmark til ét Nordvesteuropæisk markedsområde sikrer: En smertefri overgang fra eksport til import Diversificerede fysiske forsyninger Leveringen af naturgas til konkurrencedygtige priser Øget forsyningssikkerhed zaffsas s s s s s s NYBRO Handel via naturgasbørser Etzel (011) Nüttermo or (008) Peckensen (010) Russia ad dd 7

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29 Gastekniske konsekvenser af den nye forsyningssituation Forsyningsdiversiviteten på det dansk-svenske naturgasmarked vil vokse fra én til flere forsyningskilder Omskiftelige handelsmønstre vil afgøre forsyningskilden og dermed gassens kvalitet Yderligere kompleksitet ved øget forbrug af biogas Konkrete opgaver: Måling og afregning Sikkerhed IT systemer Ansvarlighed ad dd 9

30 Thanks for your attention! Kontaktdetaljer: Peter Biltoft-Jensen Senior Manager and Head of Department Infrastructure Assets DONG Energy LAKGR@dongenergy.dk

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