Mit Job: Handle mine egne penge

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1 Mit Job: Handle mine egne penge

2 What inspired me? Author: Michael Lewis He went from student to trader at Salomon Brothers in London I knew I wanted to trade If he can do it, so can I Worked for JP Morgan for 3 years Quit and isolated myself for 18 months studying markets Ran out of money to live for Went to work in the city

3 Tom Hougaard - Bio 10 years on a trading floor More than 1000 TV interviews More than 1000 seminars Expert in calling end of bull markets and bear markets - as well as traditional technical analysis Called many MAJOR highs and lows on TV well in advance (2002, 2003, 2009)

4 Time Discovery simple example

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6 Tom Hougaard Bio After London Made redundant in 2009 (the whole company was made redundant after huge trading loss (not mine ) Started live trading room, first with trading partner and then alone Went 38 weeks before we had our first losing week Started 2-day workshops with trading partner, teaching what tools we use in the live trading room Closed the room last year for a sabbatical to study up 137% for the year Spent the last 12 months researching and trading for myself Manages accounts and do occasional seminars Write on my websites tomhougaard.dk

7 Trading and the FedEx Enigma

8 YOU ONLY SEE WHAT YOU HAVE TRAINED YOUR EYES TO SEE

9 My Trader Training 1. Books 2. Mentors 3. Courses 4. On-going development

10 My Reading List

11 My Trader Training 1. Books 2. Mentors 3. Courses 4. On-going development

12 My Mentors My first real and only true mentor was Larry Pesavento, a 70- something trader with 48 years of experience. He has taught me more about life than about trading. A remarkable man. His book Fibonacci Ratios is the one I would recommend (he has written 9 others). The book is a superb primer in pattern recognition.

13 My Trader Training 1. Books 2. Mentors 3. Courses 4. On-going development

14 Courses 1. Courses come in all shapes and sizes. Recently in Copenhagen a firm offered a 2,500 2-day course, which teaches very little of value (which you could not get from a book or from searching the internet I saw the course notes). 2. I have never attended a course for beginners, and I only attended one course, with my mentor Larry Pesavento. 3. I don t recommend people attend beginners courses unless they are no more than a few hundred pounds. Anything above that is a waste of money. 4. A book like Edwards & McGee (the bible of technical analysis) will cost only 25 and teach you more than the above I run two-day workshops with my trading partner, but the courses are not for beginners Running one-day seminar in Copenhagen Sunday 17 th March 2013

15 lucky or blessed? natural selection or circumstance? genius or hard work?, talent or training?

16 Mozart Perception: A musical prodigy a marvel of nature a genius with skills way beyond his years a boy wonder!! Reality: Father Leopold was a musical composer, performer and teacher and very domineering He embarked his son on an intensive music schooling journey Researchers have estimated that by the time young Mozart was 6 years old, he had clocked up more than 3000 hours of practise. Source: Genius Explained, Michael Howe, Exeter University

17 Tiger Woods Perception: was born with a golf talent a golfing prodigy a golf genius like no other Reality: Earl Woods started training when Tiger was 1 year old. Earl was obsessed with the idea that PRACTISE CREATES GREATNESS. Tiger got his own coach at age 4. By mid-teens, Tiger had practised more than 10,000 hours.

18 Deliberate Practise Practise or playing: Merely performing like a round of Sunday golf with friends No feedback No program or focus on areas Deliberate Practise leading to expert: Structured training Feedback in place Great vs. Good: min more (extra) deliberate training a day Circumstances

19 No Free No short-cuts Not a fan of the self-help army (Tony Robbins, The Secret etc.) but some good things have come from it, such as setting a goal. I don t believe in short-cuts, but that quality training will cut down the learning time Too many people focus on the next 12 months and over-estimate what they can achieve. Too few people focus on the next 10 years and underestimate what they can accomplish

20 How does Tom Hougaard practise? Program Set aside 1 hour a day for Play-BACK Set aside 2 hours per weekend day for Play-BACK Friendly rivalry with fellow trader/mentor Read biographies for inspiration Play certain computer games to sharpen focus and concentration Motivation Trade bigger, trade better, how good can I be? Why do I carry on trading? You meet some amazing people in this industry. It attracts a certain breed, with whom I resonate well.

21 My Trading Life 1. Preparation 2. Execution 3. Tools

22 Typical Trading Day - preparation and structure of day 1. Make sure I am well rested 2. Prefer to start day with fresh air morning run/jog 3. Eat at scheduled times 4. Check for news announcements for the day 5. Check for holidays that can affect the day 6. Trade from 8am 12pm, then 2pm 4pm, maybe 8pm 7. After the trading day (& during) I practise by printing out charts 8. I do research 9. I write about the markets (articles book material) 10.I read books that inspire me 11.I go to bed early

23 My Trading Life 1. Preparation 2. Execution 3. Tools

24 Execution 1. Execute my trades with ETX Capital very solid and simple platform 2. Charts run on one internet connection 3. Trading platform runs on another 4. Charting package today is E-signal but less and less as ETX Capital s charts are every bit as good for my purpose (save 450 a month!). 5. Currency trades falls into two categories: morning trade (a proprietary trading setup developed by my trading partner David Paul), and Matrix trades (an analytical framework designed to capture the currency pairs most likely to move) 6. Stock Index trades: traded using a simple 1-min and 5-min chart using ETX Capital (but also run tick charts on E-signal)

25 My Trading Life 1. Preparation 2. Execution 3. Tools

26 Framework of Trading 1. I scalp trade/day trade FTSE and DAX stock indices 2. I swing trade Forex NOTES: I may execute as much as trades in a day when I am trading the FTSE and the DAX. This is due to my aggressive trading style. For example, if I have bought the DAX at 7606 and the market is now trading at 7609, I may buy again, adding to the winning trade, and then close the whole lot at I put swing in brackets because I doubt I truly swing trade, but I tend to hold a Forex trade a lot longer than an index trade due to trade size.

27 Framework of Intra-Day Indices 1. The screens come handy as I run both tick charts and normal time charts. 2. FTSE and DAX: 89ticks with a 62 MA and a prop Osc or 3min chart for direction 4. I use support and resistance to place trades (Lost Motion) 5. When market strongly trending, I use harmonics to get into the market 6. I use pattern recognition 7. VERY IMPORTANT: I gauge strength across indices (see next chart) 8. The training aspect (having looked at thousands of intra-day charts) is what I draw my trading decisions on

28 Framework of Forex Swing Trade 1. In preparation phase I go through the Matrix see article on 2. Use a top-down approach step by step 3. I use 3 major trading setups

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31 Framework of Forex Swing Trade 1. In preparation phase I go through the Matrix see article on 2. Use a top-down approach step by step 3. I use 3 major trading setups

32 Framework of Top-Down Approach- Weekly Chart 1. Is the market trending higher or lower? Consolidating? 2. Is it consolidating after a move higher or a move lower? 3. Is the market overbought or oversold (using Stochastics)? 4. What is the high and the low of last week? 5. Has a major low been hit (support double bottom)? 6. Has a major high been hit (resistance double top)? 7. Are there any obvious levels to look out for such as Fibonacci levels? 8. Are there any obvious pattern or candle formations? This process may seem lengthy, but with experience it only takes a few minutes and it can be done just once a week, usually on Sunday night.

33 Framework of Top-Down Approach- Daily Chart 1. Is the market trending up or down according to 89EMA? 2. Is market below or above the MA? 3. What is the 3-day Trend? (see next slide) 4. Are there any major news out today? What about tomorrow?

34 Framework of Top-Down Approach- 3 Day Trend

35 Framework of Forex Swing Trade 1. In preparation phase I go through the Matrix see article on 2. Use a top-down approach step by step 3. I use 3 major trading setups

36 Details of Trading Set-Ups - 1/ Fractal Approach

37 Details of Trading Set-Ups - 1/ Fractal Approach

38 Details of Trading Set-Ups - 1/ Fractal Approach

39 Details of Trading Set-Ups - 2/ Morning Trades 1. The morning trade is a proprietary tool 2. It brackets the Asian trading session from 10pm until 7am 3. The exact rules is a secret 4. The rules are mechanical

40 Details of Trading Set-Ups - 3/ Reverse Divergence 1. The Reverse Divergence is a proprietary tool 2. It trades in the direction of the prevailing trend 3. It uses Stochastics and an 89 EMA for trend. 4. The rules are discretionary and makes use of 4-bar fractal

41 Details of Trading Set-Ups - 3/ Reverse Divergence

42 What Truths do I trade with? 1. Don t argue with the market it really doesn t care! 2. A market is never so high, it can t go higher! 3. A market is never so low, it can t go lower (although zero is the limit) 4. The odds of the trend continuing are HIGHER than the odds of the trend reversing 5. The Market is occupied by the same people year after year it means the market tend to repeat itself (humans are creatures of habit) 6. There are 3 building blocks: TIME, PRICE, VOLUME PRICE is king

43 Let s do a live trade!

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45 Charts Demo konto Kontakt Kontakt: Konto og demo: Kontakt Jesper for at få adgang til Autochartist, som er gratis for alle ETX Capital kunder, samt oprettelse af demo konto( og for yderligere information om gratis webinars. For tilmelding til seminar d. 17 marts 2013, skal du kontakte Jesper på

46 Questions and Answers Question fra Niels: Hvor mange % af din konto vil du risikere at tabe pr. Handel Svar:Jeg risikere 3% af min konto pr. handel. Hvis handlen er en jeg taber på, vil jeg genberegne min indsats efter den handel jeg taber på, og herefter tage 3% ud fra en ny konto status. hvis jeg så tjener penge vil jeg tage de 3 % og og fratrække til en ny konto status(opgørelse/beregning). Hvis jeg føler at marked ikke viser hvor det skal hen, eller hvis jeg ikke handler særlig overbevisende vil jeg formindske mine handelsindskud. Jeg foreslår ikke nødvendigvis at folk absolut skal følge mine procentsatser. Jeg stoler fuld og fast på mine egne metoder, Som er årsagen til at jeg handler med så høj en procentsats. Mange af mine konkurrenter anbefaler at køre med lavere procentsats. Jeg anbefaler mine elever på mine kursus at bruge en procentsats på mellem 1% 1½ % i risiko. Det tal er baseret på det beregningsgrundlag som min handelspartner er nået frem til ved at han har beregnet det antal af gange han forventer på at tage fejl i marked til at være ud fra en 50/50 strategi. Argumentet er at et vilkårligt afkast er lig med én. Men, ved en lang række afkast resulterer dette i den perfekte strukturelle orden. Det illustreres bedst ved at kaste en mønt du ved ikke om det bliver plat eller krone men hvis du kaster den 100 gange vil det ca. blive 50/50

47 Questions and Answers Question from Henrik: Tak for en meget inspirerende præsentation. Første gang du deltog i 24/7 nævnte du styrken ved en dybere indsigt i konjunkturcyklerne, men jeg mener ikke, at du har kommenteret det yderligere i de efterfølgende programmer og heller ikke dagens præsentation, desværre! Svar: Det er korrekt at jeg ikke går dybere ind i styrken af de kræfter som der spiller ind. Jeg har her normalt 2 hatte på. Der er den hat jeg er nødt til at tage på når jeg laver radio interview som d. 24/7. På sådan et program giver jeg mit synspunkt på marked og hvad jeg tror og forventer. Det gør jeg selvfølgelig med stor glæde, og jeg bruger de metoder som jeg talte om i dag på webinaret. Den anden hat jeg har på er min Trader Hat, og der er en helt anderledes hat. Jeg går fra at have et fast syn på hvad der vil ske i de kommende uger og måneder, til at være i stand til at handle i et marked som hele tiden bevæger sig op og ned. Det betyder at jeg sagtens kan have en menig om at Guld vil gå imod $2000 indenfor det nærmeste år, men i dag på netop dette tidspunkt vil jeg sælge Guld fordi jeg tror kursen vil falde over de næste par dage, helt og aldeles ud fra hvad jeg ser på chart.

48 Questions and Answers Question from Alex: nu har du fortalt lidt om de værktøjer(bl.a. 4 bar fractal reversal mm.) du bruger for entry. Hvilke strategier har du for exit? Har du på forhånd defineret mål for handlen? Svar: Det er et godt spørgsmål. Jeg bruger mange værktøjer og metoder, men før jeg fortæller dig on hvilke værktøjer jeg benytter vil jeg informere dig om at jeg generelt altid lukker mine handler lidt for tidligt. At lukke handler er i mine øjne meget vanskeligere end at åbne handler/positioner. Jeg benytter mig at tidligere support niveau og modstand (opad) niveauer, som er hvad de fleste dealere bruger. Jeg ser også på daglige højeste og laveste niveau. Imidlertid benytter jeg mig mere og mere af ATR (average true range) som giver mig en ide om hvad jeg kan forvente af marked på en hvilken som helst tid på dagen. ATR er ikke det perfekte redskab men det giver et godt estimat på hvad man kan forvente. Exmple: ATR for Euro Dollar er 130 pips på dette tidspunkt. Hvis marked allerede er oppe med 90 points på dagen så vil jeg gå ind i en lang possition, jeg vil se efter at gå ud af den igen efter en stigning på points, hvis marked giver mig mulighed for det.

49 Questions and Answers Question: Martin: hvad er autochartist? Svar fra JESPER: Det er et automatisk redskab som ETX stille til rådighed for deres kunde som giver nogle automatiske signaler om chartspunkter for køb og salg i de enkelte produkter som vi tilbyder de er produceret over gennemsnitsberegninger. Question from Adam: bruger du også ETX Capital til valutahandel? Og er det en NDD broker? Svar: Jeg bruger ETX Capital handelsplatform til alt hvad jeg handler. Jeg kan handle Indekser, aktier, valuta og råvarer og sågar optioner og jeg betaler ingen handelsomkostninger Question from Hadi: Når du scalper efter FTSE / DAX er det så CFD på firma niveau du handler på eller er det FTSE / DAX du handler på? Svar: ETX Capital følger det underliggende marked tick for tick. Så jeg kan følge de aktuelle Live FTSE eller DAX futures chart og stadig anvende dem 100% ud fra ETX Capital priser. I stedet for at handle på ½ point spread i det åbne marked, Jeg udføre handler med 1 point spread hos ETX fordi jeg IKKE skal betale gebyr eller børsomkostninger. Det er det der betaler sig bedst rent økonomiske og så kan jeg stadig handle med store positioner.

50 Questions and Answers Question from Andreas: Har du et mentor program? Svar: Ja det har jeg det er et 2 dages handle kursus og så køre jeg et LIVE trading room, som er åbent forum for (elever/kunder), her handler jeg hver dag mellem kl. 09:00 13:00 (CET) medens jeg samtidig fortæller og instruerer dem som følger mig i hvad jeg gør og hvorfor jeg gør/handler sådan. Question from Martin: hvor ofte handler du per dag / per uge / per måned? Hvor mange handler ca? Svar: Det hurtige svar er at jeg handler 5-10 gange om dagen. TDet lange svar er at det helt afhænger af hvilke muligheder og hvilken form for volatilitet der er i marked.