Buildings Energy Climate Change

Transkript

1 Buildings Energy Climate Change Towards a New Paradigm Rob Marsh Senior Researcher Architect MAA PhD Danish Building Research Institute University of Aalborg

2 Societys' energy and climate related problems develop over time Changes in climatic conditions and energy demands create many challenges for construction sector Need to understand these developments and challenge the status quo

3 Giv indeklimaet og økonomien et friskt pust Panasonic varmepumpe Luk op for varmen med en Panasonic varmepumpe, og nyd de fordele, det giver for hele familien. I får et sundt indeklima, varmebesparelser på op til 66% samt et miljøvenligt varmeanlæg, der er let at betjene. Varmepumpen kan også køle jeres bolig ned på varme sommerdage.

4 Past Present Future Paradigm

5 Past

6 Past: Existing building stock Total housing stock : Low population growth: + 7% Growing floor area: + 5% Falling heat consumption: - 2% Growing electricity use: + 7% Relativ ændring (1975 = 1 %) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Figur 1. Relativ ændring Samlet i befolkningstal befolkning, etageareal Samlet etageareal Samlet varmeforbrug Samlet elforbrug (Energistyrelsen, 27).

7 Past: Existing building stock 25% Total office stock : Relativ ændring (1975 = 1 %) 2% Growing floor area: + 55% 15% Falling heat consumption: + 1% 1% Growing electricity use: + 16% 5% % Figur 1. Relativ ændring Samlet i befolkningstal befolkning, etageareal Samlet etageareal Samlet varmeforbrug Samlet elforbrug (Energistyrelsen, 27). Relativ ændring (1975 = 1 %) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Figur 3. Relativ Samlet ændring etageareal i etageareal og energiforbrug Samlet varmeforbrug Samlet elforbrug (Dansk Ejendomsmæglerforening, 27; Sadolin &

8 Past: Existing building stock Relativ ændring (1975 = 1 %) 25% Total office stock : 2% Growing floor area: + 55% 15% Falling heat consumption: + 1% 1% Growing electricity use: + 16% 5% Relativ ændring (1975 = 1 %) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Figur 1. Relativ ændring Samlet i befolkningstal befolkning, etageareal Samlet etageareal Samlet varmeforbrug Samlet elforbrug (Energistyrelsen, 27). % Figur 3. Relativ Samlet ændring etageareal i etageareal og energiforbrug Samlet varmeforbrug Samlet elforbrug (Dansk Ejendomsmæglerforening, 27; Sadolin &

9 Past: Existing building stock Falling/stable heat consumption: - Insulation of existing building fabric; window refurbishment - New heating system; change in heat supply - Improved energy regulations in Building Regulations

10 Past: Existing building stock Extreme growth in electricity consumption: - Growing ownership rates for electrical appliances - Growth in Knowledge Society, IT/multimedia og service sector - New buildings with high electricity usage to lighting, ventilation, cooling

11 7\SLVN EROLJ 7\SLVN NRQWRU 7\SLVN EROLJ 7\SLVN NRQWRU Past: Typical new buildings through time Housing: 2 storey, 12 m2 Office: 3 storey, 27 m2 For both building types: - Heat consumption calculated from historical energy regulations - Electricity calculated by historical data and primary energy factor of 2.5

12 Past: Typical new buildings through time New build housing : Falling heat consumption: - 6% Growing electricity use: + 1% Electricity consumption now larger than heat consumption Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Figur 2. Primærenergiforbrug Varmeforbrug nybyggede boliger Elforbrug

13 Past: Typical new buildings through time Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m 2 2 New build offices : 15 Falling heat consumption: - 6% Growing 1 electricity use: + 55% Electricity 5 consumption has been larger than heat consumption in many years Figur 2. Primærenergiforbrug Varmeforbrug nybyggede boliger Elforbrug Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Figur 4. Primærenergiforbrug Varmeforbrug for nybyggede kontorer Elforbrug

14 Past: Typical new buildings through time Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Figur 2. Primærenergiforbrug Varmeforbrug nybyggede boliger Elforbrug Figur 4. Primærenergiforbrug Varmeforbrug for nybyggede kontorer Elforbrug Major transformation since 197's oil crisis: - Improvements in energy regulations giving large heat savings - Growing electricity consumption has not been regulated

15 Present

16 Present: Energy regulations Previous Danish regulations: - Space heating demand Current Danish regulations: - Heating - Hot water - Cooling/overheating - Building services - Lighting (but not housing) - Renewable energy production from solar thermal & PV - Weighted in relation to primary energy consumption: District heat/oil/gas: 1. Electricity: 2.5

17 Present: Primary energy factors Fjernvarmeforbrug: 1, kwh Elforbrug: 1, kwh Distributionstab:,25 kwh Eksport:,33 kwh Distributionstab:,5 kwh Spildvarme:,46 kwh Eget forbrug:,8 kwh Import:,26 kwh Produktionstab: 1,44 kwh Primærenergiforbrug:,79 kwh Primærenergiforbrug: 2,64 kwh Figur 1. Anvendt primærenergi forbundet med Energy regulations : 1, Primary energy: 1, CO2 emissions: 1, Energy regulations: 2,5 Primary energy: 3,3 CO2 emissions: 4,2 - Electricity savings 3-4 times more effective than heat savings

18 7\SLVN EROLJ 7\SLVN NRQWRU 7\SLVN EROLJ Present: New building total primary7\slvn NRQWRU energy consumption Housing: 2 storey, 12 m2 Office: 3 storey, 27 m2 For both building types: - Energy consumption calculated with present energy regulations - Electricity calculated with current data and primary energy factor of 2.5

19 Present: New building total primary energy consumption New housing: Total primary energy consumption consists of: - Electricity use: 65 % - Heat consumption: 35 % Of the total primary energy consumption: - Not covered by energy regulations: 45 % - Covered by energy regulations: 55 % Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Elforbrug: 65 % Varme: 35 % Apparater: 39 % Belysning: 7 % Teknik: 8 % Overtemperatur: 11 % Varmt brugsvand: 12 % Opvarmning: 23 % Figur 11. Samlet primærenergiforbrug for typiske nye boliger fordelt på forskellige energirelaterede komponenter. Ikke omfattet af BR8: 46 % Omfattet af BR8: 54 %

20 Present: New building total primary energy consumption Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m 2 2 New offices: Total 15 primary energy Ikke Apparater: 39 % omfattet consumption Elforbrug: consists af of: BR8: 1 65 % Belysning: 7 % 46 % Teknik: 8 % Overtemperatur: 11 % - Electricity use: 8 % Omfattet - Heat 5 consumption: 2 % Varme: 35 % Varmt brugsvand: 12 % Opvarmning: 23 % Figur 11. Samlet primærenergiforbrug for af BR8: 54 % Of the total primary energy consumption: - Not covered by energy regulations: 55 % - Covered by energy regulations: 45 % Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Elforbrug: 79 % Varme: 21 % Apparater: 53 % Belysning: 9 % Teknik: 6 % Overtemperatur: 1 % Varmt brugsvand: 5 % Opvarmning: 16 % Figur 12. Samlet primærenergiforbrug for typiske nye kontorer fordelt på forskellige energirelaterede komponenter. Ikke omfattet af BR8: 53 % Omfattet af BR8: 47 %

21 Present: New building total primary energy consumption Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Apparater: 39 % Elforbrug: 1 65 % Belysning: 7 % Teknik: 8 % Overtemperatur: 11 % 5 Varme: Varmt brugsvand: 12 % 35 % Opvarmning: 23 % Figur 11. Samlet primærenergiforbrug for Ikke omfattet af BR8: 46 % Omfattet af BR8: 54 % Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Elforbrug: 79 % Apparater: 53 % Belysning: 9 % Teknik: 6 % 5 Overtemperatur: 1 % Varmt brugsvand: 5 % Varme: 21 % Opvarmning: 16 % Figur 12. Samlet primærenergiforbrug for Ikke omfattet af BR8: 53 % Omfattet af BR8: 47 % Shift in paradigm for new buildings' energy consumption: - Implications of Knowledge Society - Demands broad spectrum of solutions that work together - Legal framework limits energy saving strategies

22 Future

23 Future: Climate change Danish energy policy: - Supply security - Climate change Global rise in temperature of between 1-6 o C by 21 even if CO2-emissions are greatly reduced Climate change means: - Hotter summers - More extensive heat waves - Milder winters - Also in North Europe CO 2 -koncentration ppm ,2 1,,8,6,4,2, Temperaturstigning C Figur 15. Atmosfærisk CO 2 -koncentration og stigning i global middeltemperatur fra 185 til 2: CO 2 -koncentration Temperaturstigning (IPCC, 27).

24 Future: Climate change in Denmark 26, 27 & 28: - Warmest years since measurements started in 1874 CO 2 -koncentration ppm ,2 1,,8,6 Temperaturstigning C 2 to 29: 3,4 - Warmest decade since measurements started in 1874 Danish Meteorological Institute: - Temperature rise of 3 o C for winter and summer temperatures by ,2, Figur 15. Atmosfærisk CO 2 -koncentration og stigning i global middeltemperatur fra 185 til 2: CO 2 -koncentration Temperaturstigning (IPCC, 27).

25 Future: Climate change in Denmark Energy calculations in Denmark use reference climate data from Last 3 years vs : - Average.5 o C higher Last 3 years vs : - Average 5 % more sunshine All new buildings designed with outdated climate data: - Overestimate heat demand - Underestimate cooling demand Temperaturstigning C 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5, -,5 J F M A M J J A S O N D Figur 16. Stigning i gennemsnitlig udetemperatur i Danmark for følgende perioder: 15 år: i forhold til år: i forhold til (Cappelen & Jørgensen, 28).

26 Future: Climate change effect om energy consumption Growing problems with overheating in buildings: - Heat savings - Growing electricity consumption - Larges glass facades - User demands - Climate change

27 7\SLVN EROLJ 7\SLVN NRQWRU 7\SLVN EROLJ 7\SLVN NRQWRU Future: Climate change effect om energy consumption Housing: 2 storey, 12 m2 Office: 3 storey, 27 m2 - Designed after current energy regulations - Future rise in temperature based on climate change - Mechanical cooling to eliminate overheating

28 Future: Climate change effect om energy consumption New housing : Falling space heating: - 3 % Rising cooling demand: + 4 % Cooling larger than space heating within 3 years Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Figur 17. Primærenergiforbrug til opvarmning og køling for typiske boliger opført i henhold til BR8 med forventede klimaændringer fra 21 til 285: Opvarmning Køling

29 Future: Climate change effect om energy consumption 6 New offices : Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m 2 5 Falling space heating: - 15 % 4 Rising 3 cooling demand: + 4 % 2 Cooling is already 1 a larger problem than space heating in offices Figur 17. Primærenergiforbrug til opvarmning og køling for typiske boliger opført i henhold til BR8 med forventede klimaændringer fra 21 til 285: Opvarmning Køling Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Figur 18. Primærenergiforbrug til opvarmning og køling for typiske kontorer opført i henhold til BR8 med forventede klimaændringer fra 21 til 285: Opvarmning Køling

30 Future: Climate change effect om energy consumption Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Figur 17. Primærenergiforbrug til opvarmning og køling for typiske boliger opført i henhold til BR8 med forventede klimaændringer fra 21 til 285: Opvarmning Køling Figur 18. Primærenergiforbrug til opvarmning og køling for typiske kontorer opført i henhold til BR8 med forventede klimaændringer fra 21 til 285: Opvarmning Køling Climate change means: - Summer conditions will dominate; not winter conditions - Need for climate adaptation of low energy buildings

31 Paradigm

32 Low energy paradigms Historical low energy paradigm with narrow focus on heat savings Say: Energy saving Mean: Heat saving Heat saving strategies with negative energy and indoor climatic consequences

33 Low energy paradigms: Passive solar Concept developed i 196-7's: - Mountainous zones with considerable sunshine in the winter - Large south-facing glazed areas to minimise heating Used in Denmark from 197's despite different climate: - Cloudy or overcast sky for 8 % of daylight hours in the winter - Well known projects with documented summer overheating problems

34 Low energy paradigms: Passive solar Analysis of typical house orientated north/south: - Total glazing area fixed - Glazing area redistributed from north-facing to south-facing facades

35 Low energy paradigms: Passive solar Calculated in relation to previous energy regulations: - Narrow low energy paradigm with focus on space heating - Passive solar energy reduces space heating demand Opvarmningsbehov kwh/m Syd: 1 % 4 % 7 % Nord: 7 % 4 % 1 % Facadens glasandel som procentdel af facadeareal Figur 5. Opvarmningsbehov og passiv solvarme for en typisk bolig beregnet i henhold til BR-S98.

36 Low energy paradigms: Passive solar 6 Calculated in relation to Opvarmningsbehov kwh/m 2 new energy regulations: 4 - Wider 2 low energy paradigm with focus on space heating Syd: and 1 % overheating/cooling 4 % 7 % Nord: 7 % 4 % 1 % Facadens glasandel som procentdel af facadeareal - No advantage from Figur 5. Opvarmningsbehov og passiv solvarme passive solar energy because of overheating Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Syd: 1 % 4 % 7 % Nord: 7 % 4 % 1 % Facadens glasandel som procentdel af facadeareal Overtemperatur Opvarmning

37 Low energy paradigms: Passive solar Opvarmningsbehov kwh/m Syd: 1 % 4 % 7 % Nord: 7 % 4 % 1 % Facadens glasandel som procentdel af facadeareal Figur 5. Opvarmningsbehov og passiv solvarme for en typisk bolig beregnet i henhold til BR-S98. Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Syd: 1 % 4 % 7 % Nord: 7 % 4 % 1 % Facadens glasandel som procentdel af facadeareal Overtemperatur Opvarmning Same building; different low energy paradigms: - Narrow low energy paradigm creates invisible problems - Heat consumption replaced by electricity consumption - Growing future problem because of climate change

38 Low energy paradigms: Mechanical heat recovery ventilation Heat recovery efficiency: 65 % - 9 % Systems have a relatively high electricity consumption: - Deep buildings with internal rooms must be ventilated mechanically all year round - Always advertised by high heat recovery efficiency - Data on electricity consumption forgotten or hidden

39 Low energy paradigms: Mechanical heat recovery ventilation Analysis of typical house with 3 ventilation strategies that meet building regulations minimum requirements: - Mechanical extract - Mechanical heat recovery - Natural ventilation

40 Low energy paradigms: Mechanical heat recovery ventilation Calculated in relation to previous energy regulations: - Narrow low energy paradigm with focus on space heating - Mechanical heat recovery reduces space heating demand Opvarmningsbehov kwh/m Mekanisk Mekanisk Naturlig udsugning varme- ventilation genvinding Figur 7. Opvarmningsbehov og ventilationsløsning for en typisk bolig beregnet i henhold til BR-S98.

41 Low energy paradigms: Mechanical heat recovery ventilation Calculated 6 in relation to Opvarmningsbehov kwh/m 2 new energy regulations: 4 - Wider low energy paradigm 2 with focus on space heating and electricity Mekanisk to Mekanisk building Naturlig services udsugning varme- ventilation genvinding - No difference between Figur 7. Opvarmningsbehov og ventilationsløsning natural ventilation and mechanical heat recovery Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Mekanisk Mekanisk Naturlig udsugning varme- ventilation genvinding Figur 8. Primærenergiforbrug og ventilationsløsning Teknik Opvarmning

42 Low energy paradigms: Mechanical heat recovery ventilation Opvarmningsbehov kwh/m Mekanisk Mekanisk Naturlig udsugning varme- ventilation genvinding Figur 7. Opvarmningsbehov og ventilationsløsning for en typisk bolig beregnet i henhold til BR-S98. Primærenergiforbrug kwh/m Mekanisk Mekanisk Naturlig udsugning varme- ventilation genvinding Figur 8. Primærenergiforbrug og ventilationsløsning Teknik Opvarmning Same building; different low energy paradigms: - Narrow low energy paradigm creates invisible problems - Heat consumption replaced by electricity consumption - No energy saving from mechanical heat recovery

43 Low energy paradigms 199's energy and environmentally responsible housing: Low energy? - No! - Low space heating demand - High electricity consumption - High cooling demand - Same primary energy consumption as ordinary housing without specific heat saving strategies

44 What is a Low-energy Building? Our paradigm for 'low-energy' has been transformed: 1.Traditional heat savings 2.Building Regulations 3.CO2-neutrality

45 1: Traditional Heat Savings Focus on space heating: - only 2% af total primary energy Total primary energy consumption kwh/m Reference Typisk

46 1: Traditional Heat Savings Focus on space heating: - only 2% af total primary energy Total primary energy consumption kwh/m Reference Typisk

47 1: Traditional Heat Savings Space heating reduced by 8 % to under 15 kwh/m 2 - Total saving only 2 % Total primary energy consumption kwh/m Reference Typisk Target Mål

48 1: Traditional Heat Savings Space heating reduced by 8 % to under 15 kwh/m 2 - Total saving only 2 % - Passive House Concept

49 2: Energy Regulations Focus on: Heating Hot water Cooling/overheating Building services - 5% af total primary energy Total primary energy consumption kwh/m Reference Typisk

50 2: Energy Regulations Focus on: Heating Hot water Cooling/overheating Building services - 5% af total primary energy Total primary energy consumption kwh/m Reference Typisk

51 2: Energy Regulations Political aim for 75 % reduction by 22: - Savings for users only 4% because equipment and lighting are not covered Total primary energy consumption kwh/m Reference Typisk Target Mål

52 2: Energy Regulations Non-regulated electricity consumption expected to grow 25 % by 22: - Electrical equipment and lighting responsible for 85 % of consumption Building Regulations cannot be used to regulate/control electrical equipment and lighting Total primary energy consumption kwh/m Reference Typisk Target Mål

53 3: CO2-neutrality Focus on: Heating Hot water Cooling/overheating Building services Lighting Equipment CO2-udslip kg/m And: Renewable energy production interacting with energy supply system 5 Reference Typisk Target Saving Target Saving+ Production

54 3: CO2-neutrality - Broad spectrum of electricity and heat savings Total primary energy consumption CO2-udslip kwh/m2 kg/m Reference Typisk Mål: Target Saving Besparelse Target Saving+ Production

55 3: CO2-neutrality - Broad spectrum of electricity and heat savings - Building integrated renewable energy production for energy neutrality on a yearly basis CO2-udslip kg/m Reference Target Saving Target Saving+ Production Produktion Typisk Mål: Mål: Besparelse Besparelse+

56 3: CO2-neutrality - Impossible to demand CO2- or energy neutrality in current Energy Regulations because og electrical equipment

57 Low energy Paradigms Total primary energy consumption kwh/m Reference Target Reference Target CO2-udslip kg/m Narrow Detailed Local Industry Society Wide Holistic Global Knowledge Society

58 Thank you!