25/04/15'

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1 , Behavioural Scientist, Ph.D. / CBIT, Roskilde University Director of ISSP The Initiative for Science, Society & Policy Member of The Prevention Council, Danish Diabetic Assoc. Chairman of The Danish Network Head of INUDGEYOU team / April 22, Parasollen 2015 Katrine'Skov,' Health'&'Nutr.' Henrik'Boensvang' InfoStorms' Karsten'Schmidt,'RU' Business'Authori<es' Andreas'Jespersen,'RU' Consum.'&'Comp.' Johannes'Schuldt,' Experimental'Design'' Jon'Wegener,'CBS' Neuroscience' Andreas'Rathman,'' Experimental'Design'' Simon'Snoghøj' Intern' Simon'Jespersen' Web' 1'

2 indhold 1. Hvad er et nudge? 2. Hvorfor virker det? 3. Adfærdsindsigter der kan forandre Hvad er et nudge? 4. Hvordan arbejder man med nudging? Cognitive dissonance - the mental stress or discomfort experienced by an individual who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values at the same time, or is confronted by new information that conflicts with existing beliefs, ideas, or values. Diffusion of responsibility a sociopsychological phenomenon whereby a person is less likely to take responsibility for action or inaction when others are present. Expectation effects tendencies to form expectations on the basis of availability, recency, motivation and other effects, rather than by Bayesian reasoning. Inattention tendency to ignore non-salient objects or attributes 2'

3 Population Control n = Intervention n = Businesses reported not to have Randomised controlled trial Comparison of reaction and the necessary permission running over 12 months with businesses in initial round as a control compliance rates between the two groups ERST%Le(er%experiment%2013% 80.0%' 70.0%' 60.0%' 58.4%' 50.0%' 40.0%' 30.0%' 30.5%' 20.0%' 10.0%' 0.0%' 1' 2' Serie1' Serie2' 3'

4 nudge Alt det der ikke burde betyde noget i princippet, men gør det i praksis Source: Hansen, PG (2014) and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove? Forthcoming in The European Journal of Risk Regulation 2015 Adfærdsøkonomi Kognitiv psykologi nudge ABsC Applied Behavioral Science Social psykologi Kognitiv design 4'

5 Handling A Handling B Ønsker Værdier Formodninger Information EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN FOR MUSICAL INFLUENCES ON PRODUCT CHOICE Predicted effects measured in 1-9 lierkert skales SAMPLE AND SETTING EXPERIMENTAL CONDITIONS 7.5' Customer Satisfaction N = 143 7' 6.9' 7.1' 6.5' 6.2' 6.5' 6' 5.5' 5.7' 5.9' Subjects consisted of 87% staff, 9% grad students, and 4% off campus. Mean age = 43. Six menu-items were selected for descriptive manipulation, and were rotated between basic description and descriptive labels. Each item were available 6 times over a six week period Subjects filled out single-item questionnaries after consuming food 5' AW'towards'menu'item' AW'towards'restaurant' Repurchase'iten<on' Wansink, B., Painter, J., & Van Ittersum, K. (2001). Descriptive menu labels effect on sales. The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 42(6), Wansink, B., Painter, J., & Van Ittersum, K. (2001). Descriptive menu labels effect on sales. The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 42(6), '

6 ? Hvorfor virker et nudge? Handling A Ønsker Værdier Handling B Formodninger Information Dual Process Theory 1. Sloman'S.A.'(1996)'The'empirical'case'for'two'systems'of'reasoning.'Psychological+Bulle/n,'119,'3]22.' 2. Kahneman'D.'(2003)'A'perspec<ve'on'judgement'and'choice.'American+Psychologist.'58,'697]720.' 3. Evans,'J.'(2003).'"In'two'minds:'dual]process'accounts'of'reasoning".'TRENDS+in+Cogni/ve+Sciences'7'(10).' 4. Stanovich,'K'E.;'West,'R'F.'(2000).'"Individual'difference'in'reasoning:'implica<ons'for'the'ra<onality'debate?".'Behavioural+and+ Brain+Sciences'23:' ' 5. Stupple,' E.;' Waterhouse' (2009).' "Nega<ons' In' Syllogis<c' Reasoning:' Evidence' for' a' Heuris<c' ]' analy<c' Conflict".' The+ Quarterly+ Journal+of+Experimental+Psychology'62'(8).' 6'

7 Kahneman, D (2002) Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice, Prize Lecture, December x 52 = Attentional filter and control Default mode (mind-wandering or task negative network) Central executive mode (task-positive network) switch Attentional filter (Where s Waldo? network) filter, saliency detector, vigilance mode frontal lobes and sensory cortices Controlled by nicotin receptors in substantia innominata Good+introduc/on:+Daniel+J.+Levi/n+(2014)+ 7'

8 (1) Kemoterapi med 80% chance for at overleve? (2) Strålebehandling med 20% risiko for at dø? Shiv, B. & A. Fedorikhin (1999) Heart and Mind in Conflict: the Interplay of Affect and Cognition in Consumer Decision Making, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 26, No. 3 (December 1999) (pp ) 8'

9 110 kr 100 kr value now 1 year time 1 Hyperbolic Discounting Pelle'Guldborg'Hansen ' Hansen, P.G. & Hendricks (2013) Info-storms. New York: Copernicus Books. 9'

10 Decision-making and behavioral biases Anchoring the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions. Attentional Bias implicit cognitive bias defined as the tendency of emotionally dominant stimuli in one's environment to preferentially draw and hold attention. Backfire effect - Evidence disconfirming our beliefs only strengthens them. Bandwagon effect the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior. Bias blind spot the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people. [2] Choice-supportive bias the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were. [3] Confirmation bias the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. [4] Congruence bias the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses. Contrast effect the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when compared with a recently observed contrasting object. [5] Denomination effect the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills). [6] Distinction bias the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately. [7] Empathy gap - the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others. Endowment effect "the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it". [8] Experimenter's or Expectation bias the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations. [9] Focusing effect the tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome. [10] Framing effect drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented. Hostile media effect - the tendency to see a media report as being biased due to one's own strong partisan views. Hyperbolic discounting the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are. [11] Illusion of control the tendency to overestimate one's degree of influence over other external events. Begrænset Opmærksomhed [12] Impact bias the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states. [13] Information bias the Begrænset tendency to seek information Afsøgning even when it cannot affect action. [14] Irrational escalation the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong. Begrænset Hukommelse Loss aversion "the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it". [15] (see also Sunk cost effects and Endowment effect). Mere exposure effect Begrænset the tendency to express Processering undue liking for things merely because of familiarity with them. [16] Money illusion the tendency to concentrate on the nominal (face value) of money rather than its value in terms of purchasing Begrænset power. Perspektivering [17] Moral credential effect the tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent prejudice. Negativity bias the tendency Begrænset to pay more attention Indlevelse and give more weight to negative than positive experiences or other kinds of information. Neglect of probability the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. Begrænset Viljestyrke [18] Normalcy bias the refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before. Omission bias the tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions). [19] Outcome bias the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made. Planning fallacy the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. [13] Post-purchase rationalization the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value. Pseudocertainty effect the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. [20] Reactance the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice. Restraint bias the tendency to overestimate one's ability to show restraint in the face of temptation. Selective perception the tendency for expectations to affect perception. Semmelweis reflex the tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm. [21] Social comparison bias the tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential nudge Opmærksomhed Afsøgning Hukommelse Processering Perspektivering Indlevelse Viljestyrke Et nudge er en funktion af ethvert forsøg på at påvirke menneskers vurdering, valg eller adfærd i en forudsigelig retning (1) under antagelsen af at kognitive bias, rutiner og vaner påvirker vores individuelle og sociale adfærd, og (2) som virker ved at gøre brug af disse som en integreret del af sådanne forsøg. Det betyder bl.a. at et nudge fungerer uafhængigt af 1) begrænsninger af valgmuligheder, eller 2) ændringer ved handlingsalternativernes omkostninger (herunder økonomi, tid, besvær, social sanktioner, o. lign.) 3) ny informationsgivning Source: Hansen, PG (2014) and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove? Forthcoming in The European Journal of Risk Regulation '

11 25/04/15' Adfærdsindsigter der kan forandre Hvordan får vi vores ansatte til at se på Feriefondens webside, før de tjekker andre udbydere? Table 2.3 Five search heuristics with a very brief statement of how they can help with search Heuristic what it does well what it does not do so well Try them all Make the person well Minimize the cost of search informed Satisficing Say when to stop Say what choice to try next Directed cognition Suggest what choice to Give a forward looking plan try next of search Elimination by aspects Say what choices not to try Say when to stop searching Search for x minutes Give certainty how long React to success or failure search will last in search Source: Cartwright, Edward (2011) Behavioural Economics, Routledge, p '

12 Hvordan får jeg folk til at gøre den basale handling x? præcis hvilken handling ønsker du? Så hvad er nyt ved nudge? 12'

13 Fly'in'the'urinal' triggere 80%%' LeWers'about'digital'post' 'leWers'were' unable'to'be'delivered' 2014 Reducing costs by enhancing data quality in the Danish Business Register Collaboration between Danish Business Authorities and ISSP Applied Behavioural Science Team 'DKK'lost'on' postage' 13'

14 How'do'we'' find'the'companies'with'wrong'addresses'when'we'cannot'send'them' a'lewer?' Prompt' Results' Changes' 14'

15 Hvad hvis de ikke gør det alligevel? gør det let adfærdsforandring MOTIVATION KOGNITIV BELASTNING 15'

16 Når der ikke er en let vej men de ved godt at de burde, men de gør det ikke. 16'

17 N.'J.'GOLDSTEIN,'R.'B.'CIALDINI,'V.'GRISKEVICIUS'(2008);' A'Room'with'a'Viewpoint:'Using'Social'Norms'to'Mo<vate'Environmental' Conserva<on'in'Hotels 'Journal+of+Consumer+Research,+October+2008.' Sample Experimental conditions Predicted effects 1,058 hotel guests over a 80 day period Environmental message on towelrack Control Standard reuse rate Descriptive norm messages on towelrack Intervention Increase in towel reuse Part of sample was removed for various reasonscollected from a mid-priced chainhotel in the southwest U.S. Rooms were randomly assigned to either condition. Environmental messages are an industry standard Measurement of towel reuse participation N.'J.'GOLDSTEIN,'R.'B.'CIALDINI,'V.'GRISKEVICIUS'(2008);' A'Room'with'a'Viewpoint:'Using'Social'Norms'to'Mo<vate'Environmental' Conserva<on'in'Hotels 'Journal+of+Consumer+Research,+October+2008.' 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% Participation in towel reuse program by percentage 35% Environmental' Message' 44% Descrip<ve'norms' 'message' N = 428 Ikke handlinger, stop handlinger etc. 17'

18 Smokeless Terminals Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Andersen, L; Skov KL (2013) Smokeless Terminals Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Andersen, L; Skov KL (2013) Smokeless Terminals Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Andersen, L; Skov KL (2013) 18'

19 37% 15% 48% 12% ' 3% 85% ½ 10%m% 19'

20 smoking%by%more%than%50%%in%a%field%experiment% 60.00%' 56.28%' 50.00%' 40.00%' 30.00%' 26.46%' 20.00%' 10.00%' 0.00%' Pre]' Post]' N=%1695 % %%%% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%N%=%1489%% Subs/tu/on+was+achieved+by+three+layered+nudgeTinterven/on+based+on+intui/ve+coding,+reTarrangement+of+ environmental+affordances+and+publicly+salient+(spotlight+effect)+injunc/on+zones.'+++' Source:'Hansen,'Schmidt,'Andersen'and'Skov'(forthcoming)'' 20'

21 Hvordan får jeg folk til at udføre en serie af basale handlinger? tjeklister 21'

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23 ? Hvordan arbejder man med nudging? BASEOline% Analysis (diagnosis) Hypothesizing Triangulation Hypothesis tests Experiments Prototyping Lab experiments Field experiments implementation B' Behavioural mapping Identification Behavioural Reduction Behavioural patterns Solution mapping Research Adaptation Ethics 23'

24 Blog: 24'