04/02/15' Smokeless Terminals Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Andersen, L; Skov KL (2013)

Transkript

1 , Behavioural Scientist, Ph.D. / CBIT, Roskilde University Director of ISSP The Initiative for Science, Society & Policy Member of The Prevention Council, Danish Diabetic Assoc. Chairman of The Danish Network Head of INUDGEYOU team / January, 2015 Smokeless Terminals Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Andersen, L; Skov KL (2013) 1'

2 Types og fordeling af transgressioner fysisk'understø4else' 37% 48% 12% ' 3% 82% 44% orientering' Vind Sol Where do smokers come from? Andre rygere' Vægge' Hjørner' 15% Bænke' Terror sten' 85% ½ Skodder' Askesteder' Skraldespande' 2'

3 10#m# Fysisk understøttelse Katrine'Skov,' Health'&'Nutr.' Henrik'Boensvang' InfoStorms' Karsten'Schmidt,'RU' Business'AuthoriDes' Andreas'Jespersen,'RU' Consum.'&'Comp.' Johannes'Schuldt,' Experimental'Design'' Jon'Wegener,'CBS' Neuroscience' Andreas'Rathman,'' Experimental'Design'' Simon'Snoghøj' Intern' Simon'Jespersen' Web' 3'

4 Behavioural' Economics' CogniDve' Psychology' APPLIED' BEHAVIOURAL' nudge' SCIENCE' Social' Psychology' nudge Et nudge er en funktion af ethvert forsøg på at påvirke menneskers vurdering, valg eller adfærd i en forudsigelig retning (1) under antagelsen af kognitive bias, rutiner og vaner påvirker vores individuelle og sociale adfærd, og (2) som virker ved at gøre brug af disse som en integreret del af sådanne forsøg. Det betyder bl.a. at et nudge fungerer uafhængigt af 1) begrænsninger af valgmuligheder, eller 2) ændringer ved handlingsalternativernes omkostninger (herunder økonomi, tid, besvær, social sanktioner, o. lign.) 3) ny informationsgivning nudge Alt det der ikke burde betyde noget i princippet, men gør det i praksis Source: Hansen, PG (2014) and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove? Forthcoming 2015 Source: Hansen, PG (2014) and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove? Forthcoming 2015 IntervenDonsX' sdgen' A! B! Elimina+on#af#valg# Nega+ve#sank+oner# Posi+ve#sank+oner# Kampagner# intention! Informa+on# Adapted from Public Health: Ethical Issues Nuffield Council on Bioethics, (2007) Cambridge Publishers Ltd., p. 42 4'

5 IntervenDonsX' sdgen' Elimina+on#af#valg# IntervenDonsX' sdgen' Elimina+on#af#valg# Nega+ve#sank+oner# Nega+ve#sank+oner# Posi+ve#sank+oner# Posi+ve#sank+oner# Kampagner# Kampagner# Informa+on# Informa+on# Adapted from Public Health: Ethical Issues Nuffield Council on Bioethics, (2007) Cambridge Publishers Ltd., p. 42 Adapted from Public Health: Ethical Issues Nuffield Council on Bioethics, (2007) Cambridge Publishers Ltd., p. 42 context! A! B! Fysisk!! Socialt!! Mentalt! intention! Dual Process Theory 1. Sloman'S.A.'(1996)'The'empirical'case'for'two'systems'of' reasoning.'psychological+bulle/n,'119,'3x22.' 2. Kahneman' D.'(2003)' A' perspecdve' on' judgement' and' choice.'american+psychologist.'58,'697x720.' 3. Evans,'J.'(2003).'"In'two'minds:'dualXprocess'accounts'of' reasoning".'trends+in+cogni/ve+sciences'7'(10).' 4. Stanovich,'K'E.;'West,'R'F.'(2000).'"Individual'difference'in' reasoning:' implicadons' for' the' radonality' debate?".' Behavioural+and+Brain+Sciences'23:' ' 5. Stupple,' E.;' Waterhouse' (2009).' "NegaDons' In' SyllogisDc' Reasoning:' Evidence' for' a' HeurisDc' X' analydc' Conflict".' The+Quarterly+Journal+of+Experimental+Psychology'62'(8).' 5'

6 Kahneman, D (2002) Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice, Prize Lecture, December x 52 = Shiv, B. & A. Fedorikhin (1999) Heart and Mind in Conflict: the Interplay of Affect and Cognition in Consumer Decision Making, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 26, No. 3 (December 1999) (pp ) System'1'og'2'arbejder'sammen' ' ' ' ' 36' 6'

7 Bias og heurstikker (1) Kemoterapi med 80% chance for at overleve? (2) Strålebehandling med 20% risiko for at dø? 68#%# 32#%# 7'

8 68#%# 16#%# 32#%# 84#%# Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Rathman, A; Schuldt J Hvad tror du denne flaske whisky har kostet? 379# 450# 294# Gruppe 1: Gruppe 2: 450 kr. 294 kr. Kroner# 1' 2' 3' S'='P' 'E.'In'this'formulaDon,' S 'stands'for'sadsfacdon,' P 'for'percepdon'and' E 'for'expectadon.'if'you'expect'a'certain'level'of'service,'and'perceive'the'service'reviewed'to' be'higher,'you'are'a'sadsfied'client.'' ' If'you'perceive'the'same'level'as'before,'but'expected'higher,'you'are'disappointed'and,'consequently,'a'dissaDsfied'client.'(by'David'Maister'1985)' S' 0' F' 8'

9 Most of these biases are labeled as attributional biases. Actor observer bias the tendency for explanations of other individuals' behaviors to overemphasize the influence of their personality and underemphasize the influence of their situation (see alsofundamental attribution error), and for explanations of one's own behaviors to do the opposite (that is, to overemphasize the influence of our situation and underemphasize the influence of our own personality). 04/02/15' Hyperbolic discounting Decision-making and behavioral biases Anchoring the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions. Attentional Bias implicit cognitive bias defined as the tendency of emotionally dominant stimuli in one's environment to preferentially draw and hold attention. Backfire effect - Evidence disconfirming our beliefs only strengthens them. Bandwagon effect the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior. Bias blind spot the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people. [2] Choice-supportive bias the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were. [3] Confirmation bias the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. [4] Congruence bias the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses. Contrast effect the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when compared with a recently observed contrasting object. [5] Denomination effect the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills). [6] Distinction bias the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately. [7] Empathy gap - the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others. Endowment effect "the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it". [8] Experimenter's or Expectation bias the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations. [9] Focusing effect the tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome. [10] Framing effect drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented. Hostile media effect - the tendency to see a media report as being biased due to one's own strong partisan views. Hyperbolic discounting the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are. [11] Illusion of control the tendency to overestimate one's degree of influence over other external events. [12] Impact bias the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states. [13] Information nudge bias the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action. [14] Irrational escalation the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably Et wrong. nudge er en funktion af ethvert forsøg på at påvirke Loss aversion menneskers "the disutility vurdering, of giving valg up an eller object adfærd is greater than i en the forudsigelig utility associated retning with acquiring it". [15] (see also Sunk cost effects and Endowment effect). Mere exposure (1) under effect antagelsen the tendency af kognitive to express undue bias, liking rutiner for things og merely vaner because påvirker of familiarity with them. vores [16] individuelle og sociale adfærd, og (2) som virker ved at Money illusion the tendency to concentrate on the nominal (face value) of money rather than its gøre brug af disse som en integreret del af sådanne forsøg. value in terms of purchasing power. [17] Moral credential effect the tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent prejudice. Negativity Det betyder bias the bl.a. tendency at et to nudge pay more fungerer attention uafhængigt and give more af weight to negative than positive experiences or other kinds of information. Neglect 1) of probability begrænsninger the af tendency valgmuligheder, to completely eller disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. [18] Normalcy 2) bias ændringer the refusal ved handlingsalternativernes to plan for, or react to, a disaster omkostninger which has (herunder never happened økonomi, before. tid, Omission bias besvær, the social tendency sanktioner, to judge o. harmful lign.) actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions). [19] Outcome 3) bias ny informationsgivning the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made. Planning fallacy the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. [13] Post-purchase rationalization the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that Source: Hansen, PG (2014) and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove? Forthcoming 2015 a purchase Pelle Guldborg was a Hansen good value. Pseudocertainty effect the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. [20] Reactance the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice. Restraint bias the tendency to overestimate one's ability to show restraint in the face of temptation. Selective perception the tendency for expectations to affect perception. Semmelweis reflex the tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm. [21] Social comparison bias the tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential candidates who don't compete with one's own particular strengths. [22] Status quo bias the tendency to like things to stay relatively the same (see also loss aversion, endowment effect, and system justification). [23][24] Unit bias the tendency to want to finish a given unit of a task or an item. Strong effects on the consumption of food in particular. [25] Wishful thinking the formation of beliefs and the making of decisions according to what is pleasing to imagine instead of by appeal to evidence or rationality. [26] Zero-risk bias preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk. Social biases 9'

10 Behaviour change MOTIVATION INTUITIVE 10'

11 '

12 80#%' Attentional filter and control Default mode (mind-wandering or task negative network) Central executive mode (task-positive network) switch Attentional filter (Where s Waldo? network) filter, saliency detector, vigilance mode frontal lobes and sensory cortices Controlled by nicotin receptors in substantia innominata Good+introduc/on:+Daniel+J.+Levi/n+(2014)+ Source: for bedre håndhygiejne. Frederik Moesgaard & Simon Aarestrup, 2014, Bachelorprojekt HA(psyk.), Copenhagen Business School 2014 Vigilance salience Source: for bedre håndhygiejne. Frederik Moesgaard & Simon Aarestrup, 2014, Bachelorprojekt HA(psyk.), Copenhagen Business School 2014 Vigilance salience 12'

13 Source: for bedre håndhygiejne. Frederik Moesgaard & Simon Aarestrup, 2014, Bachelorprojekt HA(psyk.), Copenhagen Business School 2014 Vigilance salience Source: for bedre håndhygiejne. Frederik Moesgaard & Simon Aarestrup, 2014, Bachelorprojekt HA(psyk.), Copenhagen Business School 2014 Vigilance salience Source: for bedre håndhygiejne. Frederik Moesgaard & Simon Aarestrup, 2014, Bachelorprojekt HA(psyk.), Copenhagen Business School 2014 Vigilance salience ROUTINE' FEEDBACK' TRIGGER' SUCCESS' FEEDBACK' 13'

14 Size does matter a choice architectural experiment in reducing food Waste Hansen PG; Skov LR; Schmidt K; Skov KL; Mikkelsen BE; Pérez-Cueto FJA (2013) Wansink, B., Painter, JE, North, J. (2005) Bottomless Bowls: Why Visual Cues of Portion Size May Influence Intake. Obesity Research, Vol. 13, #1, Plates. Plates is one of the most widespread and ancient technologies still in use. Still, only few knows about the impact is exert everyday on our health, wealth and happiness. 27'cm' 24'cm' 14'

15 Hansen, PG; Jespersen AM & Skov, LR (2013) Size Matter! A Choice Architectural Field-Experiment in Reducing Food Waste (submitted to PLOSone) 25' Sample 220 CEO s attending standing lunch Experimental conditions Standard sized plates (27 cm) Control n = 75 Smaller plates (24 cm) Intervention n = 145 Predicted effects Standard amount of food waste Reduction in food waste Average#food#waste#per#person#in#grams# 20' 15' 10' 5' 0' Food'waste' n'='75' n'='145' Plate'size'27CM' (standard)' Plate'size'24'CM' (intrevendon)' Participants in a national conference for 550 Danish CEO s held in the Danish Opera Self-selection by choosing one of two stairs leading to floor featuring two identical lunch buffets Measurement of food waste in bulk Source: Hansen PG; Skov LR; Schmidt K; Skov KL; Mikkelsen BE; Pérez-Cueto FJA (2013) Smaller plates, less food waste : A choice architectural experiment in a self-service eating setting. Abstract from 20th International Congress of Nutrition, Granada, Spanien. 23. e-cigarettes. Students at Roskilde University s HumTEK education presenting e-cigarette modified according to cognitive design and habit theory in Subs+tu+ng#injunc+on#for#prohibi+on#decreases#inconsiderate# smoking#by#more#than#50%#in#a#field#experiment# ROUTINE' FEEDBACK' 60.00%' 50.00%' 56.28%' 40.00%' TRIGGER' SUCCESS' FEEDBACK' 30.00%' 26.46%' 20.00%' 10.00%' 0.00%' PreX' N=#1695 # #### ################N#=#1489## Subs/tu/on+was+achieved+by+three+layered+nudgeRinterven/on+based+on+intui/ve+coding,+reRarrangement+of+ environmental+affordances+and+publicly+salient+(spotlight+effect)+injunc/on+zones.'+++' Source:'Hansen,'Schmidt,'Andersen'and'Skov'(forthcoming)'' PostX' 15'

16 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN FOR MOTIVATION AND INTENTION IMPLEMENTATIONS IN BEHAVIOR CHANGE Sample & Basic design Experimental conditions Predicted effects Unrelated literature Baseline Control 248 Undergraduates over a 2 week period Motivation pamphlet Equal to baseline Motivation Motivation + Implementation pamphlet Implementation Higher tendency to exercise Some participants were not included, as they did not complete the questionnaires. No difference in previous exercise tendency Participants were randomly assigned to groups Self reported behavior and intentions iyou' ''101' S.'Milne,'S.'Orbell,'P.'Sheeran'(2012);'Combining'moDvaDonal'and'voliDonal'intervenDons'to'promote'exercise'parDcipaDon:'ProtecDon' modvadon'theory'andimplementadon'intendons;'bridsh'journal'of'health'psychology'2002,'7,'pp'163x184' 100% 90% Percentage of group that exercised 91% N = % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 38% 35% 20% iyou' ''101' Control' MoDvaDon' MoDvaDon'+' ImplementaDon' intendons' S.'Milne,'S.'Orbell,'P.'Sheeran'(2012);'Combining'moDvaDonal'and'voliDonal'intervenDons'to'promote'exercise'parDcipaDon:'ProtecDon' modvadon'theory'andimplementadon'intendons;'bridsh'journal'of'health'psychology'2002,'7,'pp'163x184' 16'

17 N.'J.'GOLDSTEIN,'R.'B.'CIALDINI,'V.'GRISKEVICIUS'(2008);' A'Room'with'a'Viewpoint:'Using'Social'Norms'to'MoDvate'Environmental' ConservaDon'in'Hotels 'Journal+of+Consumer+Research,+October+2008.' Sample Experimental conditions Predicted effects 1,058 hotel guests over a 80 day period Environmental message on towelrack Control Standard reuse rate Descriptive norm messages on towelrack Intervention Increase in towel reuse Part of sample was removed for various reasonscollected from a mid-priced chainhotel in the southwest U.S. Rooms were randomly assigned to either condition. Environmental messages are an industry standard Measurement of towel reuse participation N.'J.'GOLDSTEIN,'R.'B.'CIALDINI,'V.'GRISKEVICIUS'(2008);' A'Room'with'a'Viewpoint:'Using'Social'Norms'to'MoDvate'Environmental' ConservaDon'in'Hotels 'Journal+of+Consumer+Research,+October+2008.' 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% Participation in towel reuse program by percentage 35% Environmental' Message' 44% DescripDve'norms' 'message' N = '

18 !!!!! 04/02/15' 15.0% 10.0% Percentage reduction in DNA s compared to pre-intervention ' 10.1% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -3.5% -18% -30.0% -31.7% -35.0% Verbal Active Active + Positive norm iyou 101 Intervention stop -29.6% Intervention restart S. Martin, S. Bassi & R. Dunbar-Rees (2012): Commitments, norms and custard creams a social influence approach to reducing did not attends (DNAs). Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 2012: 105: mail:! pelle@inudgeyou.com! Blog:! 18'