Økonomiske udsigter. Jens Nærvig Pedersen Økonom

Transkript

1 Økonomiske udsigter Jens Nærvig Pedersen Økonom

2 Agenda Den økonomiske krise: Det tabte er ved at være indhentet Status på krisen: Recessionsfrygten er tilbage De økonomiske udsigter: Udsigt til lav vækst i lang tid Råvaremarkederne: Vi er inde i en råvare super-cyklus 2

3 Det tabte er ved at være indhentet

4 Den økonomiske krise var en global krise m ia. dollars V er denshandlen D et har taget 2 år at indhente det tabte På ½ år faldt verdenshandlen 4 år tilbage

5 Krisen har ramt økonomierne forskelligt Indeks, K 4 = BN P faste pr iser Sverige Tyskland U SA UK D anm ark

6 Vi er midt i en forbrugskrise Indeks, K 4 = P r ivatfor br ug faste pr iser Sverige Tyskland U SA D anm ark UK

7 Recessionsfrygten er tilbage

8 Recessionsfrygten er tilbage Google søgninger på "recession"

9 og det har ført til store fald på aktiemarkederne 110 Indeks 1 -jan = S& P D ax

10 men det ser ud til at blive ved stagnation 65 indeks U SA 's økonom i vokser 60 indeks ISM frem stilling U SA 's økonom i skr um per

11 frygten har dog ikke været ubegrundet Jordskælv i Japan uro i Mellemøsten 11

12 Udsigt til lav vækst i lang tid

13 To vigtige pejlemærker for global vækst Kinesisk vækst Jobskabelse i USA 13

14 Udsigt til lav vækst i lang tid Kickstarten mislykkedes arbejdsmarkederne kom aldrig i omdrejninger trods redningspakker og rentefald Finanspolitiske stramninger i den vestlige verden sætter ind. Forbrugerne fokuserer fortsat på at nedbringe deres gæld Der bliver tale om relativ lav økonomisk vækst i den vestlige verden over de kommende år Ledigheden falder ikke i nævneværdigt omfang 14

15 hvilket vil holde renterne lave i lang tid Den amerikanske centralbank har annonceret, at den forventer at holde renten i ro til % % Fed Funds tar get Den europæiske centralbank har aflyst de før ventede rentestigninger rentenedsættelser kan ikke udelukkes % % ECB Refi

16 Gældskrisen er fortsat en udfordring Grækenland i dybe problemer markedet ser statsbankerot som næsten uundgåelig 90 % -point, 2 -år ig spæ nd over for Tyskland % -point, 1 0 -år ig spæ nd over for Tyskland Græ kenland Græ kenland P ortugal Ir land Ir land Jan A pr Jul Oc t Jan 10 Spanien It alien A pr Jul Oct Jan A pr Jul Oc t Jan 10 P ortugal Spanien It alien A pr Jul Oct

17 Danmark spiller dog fortsat en dukserolle 17

18 De nye høj vækst økonomier agerer motor for den globale vækst % å/ å % å/ å V er densøkonom ien D e nye økonom ier D e udviklede økonom ier

19 Olieprisen påvirket af både udbud og efterspørgsel... Oil market balance forecasts Fald i olielagrene for 3. år i træk (mb/ d) Global balance Brent W TI Source: Danske Markets 19

20 og vil dermed forblive høj næste år 20

21 Vi er midt i en råvare super-cyklus

22 Hvor er markederne på vej hen? Priserne har fluktueret omkring samme niveau men ikke de seneste år 2000 index ( = ) index ( = ) CRB foodstuffs > > < < Crude oil index ( = ) index ( = ) CRB foodstuff > > < < Crude oil

23 Befolkningsvækst og industrialisering/urbanisering:

24 Vi er midt i en råvare super cyklus 8 All commodities (common factor) 5-10 år Tilbage? Oliekrise Teknologiske fremskridt Råvare super-cyklus 1970 erne erne 2000? 24

25 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, a division of Danske Bank A/S ("Danske Bank"). The author of the presentation is Christin Tuxen., Senior Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorized and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from Danske Bank upon request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the research policies of Danske Bank. Employees within the Danske Bank Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to the Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the over-all profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by Danske Markets for information purposes only and should be viewed solely in conjunction with the oral presentation provided by Danske Markets. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for retail customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Markets is a division of Danske Bank A/S. Danske Bank A/S is authorized by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where Danske Bank A/S conducts operations. Moreover Danske Bank A/S is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (UK). Details on the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. Copyright (C) Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission. 25