Energipolitiks Fjernvarmedag Landstingssalen, Christiansborg den 30. marts 2017 Heat Roadmap Europe: Markedspotentiale I EU Henrik Lund Professor i Energiplanlægning Aalborg Universitet
Heat Roadmap Europe
Heat Roadmap Europe 1, 2, 3 og 4 HRE 1 (2012): Fjernvarmens fordele i det nuværende EU energi system (BAU scenario) HRE 2 (2013): Fjernvarmes rolle et lav emissions EU fremtid (besparelser kontra effektiviseringer) HRE 3 (2015, STRATEGO WP2): Fjernvarme og Fjernkøling i 5 medlemslande (UK, Italien, Tjekkiet, Kroatien og Rumænien) HRE 4 (2016-2019): lav emissions varme og køle strategier for 14 medlemslande (90% EU behov)?
Project Participants
GIS based information Byområder (Varmebehov) El og varme produktion Affalds potentialer Overskudsvarme Geotermi Solvarme
Energi System Analyse Model Import/ Hydro Hydro Electricity Export www.energyplan.eu Hydro water fixed and storage power plant storage variable system RES electricity Fuel RES heat PP CHP Boiler H2 storage Electrolyser Heat pump and electric boiler Cars Industry Cooling device Heat storage Electricity demand Cooling demand Heat demand Transport demand Process heat demand
Smart Energy Systems
District Heating in the first line of the Commission s new Vision for Heating and Cooling
EU Strategy on Heating and Cooling Linking heating and cooling with electricity networks will reduce the cost of the energy system to the benefit of consumers. District heating can integrate renewable electricity (through heat pumps) It can offer flexibility to the energy system by cheaply storing thermal energy, for instance in hot water tanks or underground.
Smart Energy Europe Publication www.energyplan.eu/smartenergyeuro pe Report Online Paper Published
HRE1: EU Energy Roadmap 2050 Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: Reference: Business-as-usual CPI: Updated business-as-usual EE CCS Nuclear High RE
Der er et stort fjernvarmepotentiale I EU (også I de sydeuropæiske lande)
Der er mere overskudsvarme i Europa end der er varmebehov i bygningerne
Annual costs [Billion ] Annual EU27 costs for heating buildings in 2010 to 2050 140 120 HRE1: 100 80 60 Annual investment costs Fixed operation costs CO2 emission costs Sparede omkostninger of til brændsel: 30 Mia. EUR i 2050 40 20 0 IEA EU CPI HRE RE EU CPI HRE RE 2010 2030 2050 Marginal operation cost Fuel Omkostninger er reduceret med 14 mia. EUR in 2050 Yderligere investeringer for i alt 500 mia. EUR Ekstra jobs fra 2013 til 2050: 8-9 million mandår i alt svarende til ca. 220,000 jobs.
HRE2: EU Energy Roadmap 2050 Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: Reference: Business-as-usual CPI: Updated business-as-usual EE CCS Nuclear High RE
Det bliver billigst når vi kombinerer energibesparelser med energi effektivitet i produktionen (fjernvarme og varmepumper)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh/year) Carbon Dioxide Emissions (X, Mt/year) Energi besparelser og effektivitet på begge sider kan spare same mængder Energi & CO2 1400 Italy Italy: Heating, Cooling, and Electricity 250 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Business-As-Usual 2050 Energy Efficiency on the Demand Side (i.e. Heat Savings) Energy Efficiency on the Supply Side BAU 2050 Step 1 Savings Heat Roadmap 200 150 100 50 0
Varmelagre er i størrelsesordenen 100 gange billigere end el-lagre Electricity = 170/kWh Thermal = 0.5-3/kWh
www.heatroadmap.eu Czech Republic: 40% (25%) Croatia: 40% (15%) Italy: 60% (<5%) Romania: 40% (20%) United Kingdom: 70% (<5%)
Vi kan matche fjernvarme potentialer med overskudsvarme (for de 5 STRATEGO lande)
Varmebehov fra Peta3 (www.heatroadmap.eu) London <5% FJV København >90% FJV Rom <5% FJV Bukarest ~75% FJV
HRE4 Countries: 14 Largest EU Countries by Heat Demand = 90% of EU Heat 1. Germany 2. France 3. United Kingdom 4. Italy 5. Poland 6. Spain 7. Netherlands 8. Sweden 9. Belgium 10. Czech Republic 11. Romania 12. Austria 13. Finland 14. Hungary
Renewable Energy Share in Heating & Cooling (%) Sammenhængen mellem vedvarende energi i varmesektoren og fjernvarme 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% District Heating Share (%) Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Finland Germany Hungary Italy Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovenia Sweden Belgium Croatia Czech Republic Estonia France Greece Ireland Latvia Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovak Republic Spain United Kingdom
District Heating Potential (% of Heat Demand) TJ Rural DH Almost Impossible Potential for 4DH* DH Currently Possible DH Highly Feasible % 0-30 TJ/km2 30-100 TJ/km2 100-300 TJ/km2 >300 TJ/km2 Member State AT 13% 8% 35% 32% 13% BE 6% 10% 35% 37% 11% BG 11% 39% 26% 23% 1% CY 13% 29% 57% 1% 0% CZ 12% 10% 33% 38% 8% DE 10% 2% 26% 53% 9% DK 11% 5% 34% 40% 9% EE 21% 13% 24% 27% 15% EL 24% 9% 31% 33% 2% ES 11% 6% 19% 39% 24% FI 23% 8% 21% 30% 19% FR 14% 8% 32% 33% 13% HR 23% 20% 44% 12% 0% HU 7% 10% 54% 28% 0% IE 24% 2% 34% 38% 1% IT 16% 3% 24% 49% 7% LT 21% 26% 24% 24% 5% LU 9% 0% 24% 58% 9% LV 27% 6% 26% 40% 1% MT 5% 8% 51% 35% 1% NL 9% 0% 13% 64% 14% PL 24% 8% 27% 34% 7% PT 21% 25% 45% 8% 0% RO 14% 21% 31% 33% 1% SE 15% 8% 26% 33% 17% SI 27% 6% 33% 32% 2% SK 13% 14% 44% 27% 1% UK 11% 3% 18% 62% 7% EU28 13% 7% 26% 44% 10%
Smart Energy Systems www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/
Smart Heating Europe
www.henriklund.eu www.4dh.dk More information: http://energy.plan.aau.dk/book.php www.energyplan.eu/smartenergyeurope www.energyplan.eu www.heatroadmap.eu www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/