Status of the European retrofit market

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1 Status of the European retrofit market Rainer Jakobs IZW Information Center on Heat Pumps & Refrigeration Hannover Duisburg Breuberg Karlsruhe Germany Folie 1 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

2 Agenda Introduction HP important part to reach the European 2020 targets European Market Countries: A CH DE S N F Perspective and Conclusion Folie 2 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

3 Energy consumption segments Buildings Industry 28% 28% 41% Comfort Cooling % 25% Hot Water 3% 50-60% 31% 41% Buildings Others 20% Space Space Heating Transport Eurostat 2004 Estimate based on range of sources Buildings consume > 40% of EU energy % is used for cooling and heating Share of cooling may increase in future Folie 3 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

4 Heat Pump application Residential Commercial Industrial District cooling and heating Folie 4 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

5 Renewable energy sources Folie 5 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

6 Utilization of renewable energy sources Heat Pump Folie 6 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

7 Heat sources geothermal energy hydrothermal energy aerothermal energy Folie 7 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

8 Heat sources: Switzerland 2007 Air-Water Ground 43% 2% Water-Water Germany 2007 Air-Water Air-Air Ground Water-Water 8% 55% 48% Misc. 2% 24% Sweden % 14% Air-Water Air-Air Exhaust Air Ground Water-Water 2% 40% 48% 14% Folie 8 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

9 Energy Policy for Europe: Targets 2020 The plan calls for a: 20% increase in energy efficiency by % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by % share of renewables in overall EU energy consumption by % biofuel component in vehicle fuel by 2020 Folie 9 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

10 EU Energy mix & detail of Renewable Energy sources (RES) The target : 20% RES by 2020 is 3 times higher compared to 2004 drastic improvement is required Other 0,1% Oil 36,8% Nuclear 14,4% RES 6,4% Solar 0,04% Hydro 1,5 % Wind 0,3% Biomass & waste 4,2% Solid fuels 18,2% Gas 24,0% Geothermal 0,3% Source : European Commission DG Tren, Eurostat EU-27 ( 2004 ) Folie 10 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

11 Folie 11 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

12 Contribution to EU targets Heat pumps installed in single family houses alone can contribute to the 20/20/20 % EU-targets by 2020 to approximately 20 % to. - reduce primary energy consumption - reduce greenhouse gas emissions - increase the share of renewables. EU policy for 2020 concerning EU target potential of heat pumps HP-share of EU targets Primary energy - 20% -902 TWh 20.6 % Renewable energy 20% 774 TWh 22 % Greenhouse gas - 20% -230 Mto 21.5 % - Without regarding the potential for heat pump use in public and commercial sectors - Without regarding the potential for cooling and air conditioning Source: European Heat Pump Action Plan Folie 12 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

13 RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR A CLEANER FUTURE Heizen Sie noch oder Wärmen Sie schon? Heating? by fire? or with renewable energies Folie 13 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

14 Europe HP market Europe : total heat pump sales for space heating (excluded air/air split system except in Nordic countries) Source EHPA Folie 14 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

15 Market perspective Long term market growth heat pumps Europe sales units * Source: Market Report Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH For Germany +10% p.a. means: 2007: ~ 45, : ~ 100,000 IZW perspective for Germany: 2007: ~45, : ~ 150,000 Folie 15 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

16 Europe HP market Source: EHPA Folie 16 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

17 Housing Completion Germany Folie 17 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

18 Selected Countries 1 X Norway Sweden Switzerland France Germany / / /03 Population Households ~4.000 ~ Housing Stock single-family tw o-family multi-family - flats Age < % 27% 38% 33% 28% % 56% 36% 35% 49% % 17% 26% 32% 23% Folie 18 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

19 Selected Countries 2 Type of Energy District Heating Gas Electricity Oil Hard-Brow n Coal, Coke Wood, renew able energies Housing completion single-family tw o-family multi-family - flats Yearly sales Heat Pumps Norw ay Sw eden Sw itzerland France Germ any / / / ~35.000* ~ ~ ~ ~ Folie 19 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

20 Buildings in Europe In Europe more than 150 Mill. dwelling units age: 30 % before % between 1950 and % between 1980 and 2000 Folie 20 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

21 Austria Population: 8,1 Mill. Households: 3,3 Mill. Energy: Oil and Gas dominating 70% of the sold HP are in the new housing segment Air-water HP getting strong interest Hydronic distribution systems are common DHW HP have a significant share Folie 21 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

22 Austria Yearly installed heat pumps Dehuminification Exhaust air Heating only DHWHP Sales pieces per year (Source: Faninger, 2007) Folie 22 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

23 Heat Sources for HPs in Austria (heating only) direct expansion; 1576 units; 17.8% brine/water; 4714units; 53.2% air/water; 1618 units; 18.3% Total 2006: 8855 units additionally 2 air/air units water/water; 945 units; 10.7% Source: Faninger, 2007 Folie 23 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

24 Switzerland Population: 7,4 Mill. Households: 1,9 Mill. Energy: Oil and Gas dominating 1,3 Mill. Buildings new buildings per year 1,4 Mill. Boilers (0,8 Mill. Oil; 0,2 Mill. Gas; 0,13 HP) 73% of the sold HP are in the new housing segment (1997: 30% 2001: 40% 2007: 73%) Switzerland is one of the most developed HP Market >95% of the HP are for space heating Oelkessel Gaskessel Wärmepumpen Oil boilers Gas boilers Heat pumps Folie 24 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

25 Heat Pumps in Switzerland pieces per year Stückzahl '82 '84 '88 '90 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 Jahr Source: FWS Folie 25 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

26 Heat Pumps in Switzerland by application pieces per year '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 Heating-HP HP water heater Single-room HP Folie 26 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

27 Heat Pumps in Switzerland Switzerland % Air-Water Ground Water-Water 43% 55% Folie 27 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

28 Switzerland 2007 sales # 73% of the new residential houses equipped with a HP # Pieces Oelkessel Gaskessel in 2007, heat pumps were running Wärmepumpen Oil boilers Gas boilers Heat pumps Sources: Procal und FWS Folie 28 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

29 Germany Population: 83 Mill. Households: 39 Mill. Energy: Oil and Gas dominating 38,5 Mill. Buildings 17 Mill.1-2 Family houses ~ 0,1 Mill. new buildings per year Air-water HP getting strong interest ~80% of the sold HP are in the new housing segment; ~30% of the new buildings are equipped with HPs 85% of the HP are for space heating Hydronic distribution systems are common Folie 29 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

30 Heat Demand of the Building Stock Germany 300 vor heat conservation legislation HCL (1977) 1. WSchV (1977) heat demand [kwh/m² x a] Passivhaus nach GRE Flächenanteil in % heute ca share of space [%] today 2. WSchV HCL (1983) 3. HCL (1995) 3. WSchV (1995) Low Energy House NEH Passive House Folie 30 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

31 Sold heat pumps in Germany 2007: # Heat Source ground-brine water ground direct air misc Source: IZW e.v. March BWP e.v Folie 31 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

32 Germany % Air-Water Air-Air Ground Water-Water Misc. 8% 2% 40% 2% Folie 32 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

33 Sweden Population: 9 Mill. Households: 4 Mill. Energy: Oil and Gas dominating 4,5 Mill. Buildings 1,744 Mill. private homes ~ HPs supply the Swedish homes Air-Air was dominating in 2007 Most of the HP are for space heating 1 day installation Folie 33 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

34 9 million inhabitants 1,744 million private homes L/w 262, Exh/w 122, A/w 35, Air/air 148 Heat pump Electric boiler Oil boiler Solid fuel + electric boiler District heating Electric panels Thousand units Source: SCB A heat pump is the preferred way of heating Folie 34 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

35 Swedish heat pump market Liquid-Water Exhaust Air Air-Air Air-Water Source: SVEP Folie 35 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

36 Heat Pumps in Sweden Accumulated numbers of installations Accumulated sales Units Water-water Brine-water Exhaust air-air Exhaust air-water Air-Air Air-Water Data from SVEP Folie 36 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

37 Captured energy by heat pumps in Sweden small and large systems Totally captured energy by heat pumps TWh 8 6 Small Heat Pumps Large Heat Pumps Folie 37 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

38 Heat Pump Market in Sweden 24% Sweden % 14% Air-Water Air-Air Exhaust Air Ground Water-Water 48% 14% Folie 38 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

39 Norway Nearly 100% of the generation of electricity is hydropower Most houses are heated with electric heaters Hydronic heating system is not usually installed Nearls 100% are Air-Air Heat Pumps Heat Pumps are treated equally with other renewable energy sources by government Most politicians point out bioenergy and HPs as a part of the solutions for the households First choice for households that want an alternative to electric heating Folie 39 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

40 Norway Heat Pump Market (NOVAP) air-air HPs Folie 40 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

41 France Population: 61 Mill. Households: 25 Mill. Energy: gas, electricity and oil dominating 10 Mill. boilers gas and oil ~30% older than 20 years 7 Mill. direct electrical heaters 30 Mill. buildings 17 Mill.1-2 family houses Ground source HPs are used ~100% for new buildings Air-water HP are getting strong interest 60% in existing buildings HP market is growing fast, but still small in comparison to the total boiler market (0,7 Mill. in 2007) a relative stabilisation of GSHP sales a continuous growth of air-water HP a serious beginning of the retrofit market Folie 41 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

42 France HP market France : sales of heat pumps (for heating) air/air (gainé ou plénum) air/water GSHP New buildings: mass market in progress Existing buildings : beginning market Folie 42 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

43 French Market development HP type distribution sales in Fance ( 2005) HP type distribution sales in Fance ( 2006) air/air centralized (approx.) air/water HP HP 8000 ground source air/air + 11 % GSHP + 40 % air/water % Folie 43 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

44 Perspective 1 Increasing acceptance of heat pumps In Europe more than 150 Mill. dwelling units age: 30 % before % between 1950 and % between 1980 and 2000 Many dwellings must renew their fossilfuel based heating equipment in the next years Folie 44 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

45 Perspective 2 Trend: Heating and cooling with HP (ground source) The domestic hot water DHWHP will become stronger Combinations of DHWHP with solar use The air to water HP will be used more for bivalent systems in existing buildings Air-Air HP have a significant importance for the retrofit market Reversible Air Conditioning systems will be used more Commercial and industrial use is a broad field Folie 45 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

46 Conclusion The success based also on the positive opinion/actions of the authorities; Sweden and Switzerland are showing the way. Every country-region demands their HPtype Heat pumps are contributing today significantly to reduce primary energy and CO 2 emissions worldwide To reach the 2020 targets for renewable energies in the EU heat pumps are an important tool Use it! Folie 46 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

47 Other areas of the world recognise HP Technology, Europe should not stay behind Advertorial Special Feature on the Natural Environment in the edition of the NIKKEI 19 th Dec. 07 Folie 47 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings

48 End Thank you for your attention The Information Centre on Refrigeration & Heat Pumps IZW e.v. is a society, which stands for neutral information in Heat Pump- and Refrigeration Technology. IZW contributes to the shaping of political opinion due to objective information and reports. Statements on current topics are given in technical-scientific symposium and publications. The IZW represents with his National Team Germany in the Heat Pump Programme of the IEA. Informationszentrum Kältetechnik und Wärmepumpen Welfengarten 1a D Hannover Germany phone: Fax: @izw-online.de Internet: Folie 48 14/10/2008 Jakobs European retrofit market for HP DKV Symposium Retrofit HP for Buildings