Miljøforvaltning er nu en udfordring på det globale niveau hvordan håndterer vi den?

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1 Miljøforvaltning er nu en udfordring på det globale niveau hvordan håndterer vi den? Katherine Richardson Professor og leder af Sustainability Science Centre Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate University of Copenhagen

2 Adil Najam Dean of The Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University and Professor of International Relations Sustainability Science Congress 2014

3 Climate change

4 Two observations 1. Climate illicites a non-standard response compared to most natural science studies 2. Climate = the first wide-scale appreciation of a need to manage environmental resources at the global level 4

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6 Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : , Sept ) Professor Katherine Richardson

7 Valuable Ecosystem Services (Desirable) Loss of ecosystem services (Undesirable) 1 4 coral dominance state shift algal dominance 2 3 clear water overfishing, coastal eutrophication disease, hurricane turbid water grassland phosphorous accumulation in soil and mud flooding, warming, overexploitation of predators shrub-bushland fire prevention good rains, continuous heavy grazing

8 Humanity s 12,000 years of grace

9 Climate Change Ozone depletion Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Planetary Boundaries Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Ocean acidification Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Freshwater Use Land System Change Chemical Pollution

10 Planetary Boundaries: a potentially valuable framework for guiding policy directed at achieving sustainable development OECD Environmental Outlook 2012 Global Energy Assessment 2012 UNEP 2012 UN High-level Panel on Global Sustainability (GSP) 2012 UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network World Economic Forum 2013 SDGs

11 Planetary Boundaries January 2015

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13 Two CORE boundaries: Climate Biosphere Integrity

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15 Professor Katherine Richardson Preindustrial:

16 Professor Katherine Richardson :

17 Professor Katherine Richardson :

18 Professor Katherine Richardson :

19 Professor Katherine Richardson Current:

20 PBs are scientifically-based levels of human perturbation of the ES beyond which ES functioning may be significantly altered. The PB framework does not dictate how societies should develop. By identifying a safe operating space for humanity on Earth, the PB framework can make a valuable contribution to decision-makers in charting desirable courses for societal development and they (or something like them) are essential for SDGs.

21 The greatest challenge of the 21 st century: Acknowledging that the planet s resources are limited AND the development of (governance) mechanisms to share these resources among 9 (10?) billion people Climate is just a proxy for a much larger challenge. 21

22 Equity!! Management of global resources (i.e. distribution of access rights) without a global governance system is the ultimate governance challenge here This tension bubbling under the surface (about to burst out in the open?) ow-to-slice-a-global-carbon-pie.html?src=recg ==================== NY Times BY DEGREES How to Slice a Global Carbon Pie? By JUSTIN GILLIS Published: October 7, 2013 STOCKHOLM It was the middle of the night. In a matter of hours, journalists from around the world would be showing up, expecting details about the latest big United Nations climate report. But behind closed doors here, as the final wording of that document was being worked out, things were not going well. Related

23 At the Sustainable Development Summit on 25 September 2015, UN Member States will adopt the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which includes a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end poverty, fight inequality and injustice, and tackle climate change by The SDGs, otherwise known as the Global Goals, build on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), eight anti-poverty targets that the world committed to achieving by The MDGs, adopted in 2000, aimed at an array of issues that included slashing poverty, hunger, disease, gender inequality, and access to water and sanitation. Enormous progress has been made on the MDGs, showing the value of a unifying agenda underpinned by

24 Biosphere integrity: Professor Katherine Richardson

25 Land use: Professor Katherine Richardson

26 Nitrogen application: Professor Katherine Richardson

27 P application: Professor Katherine Richardson

28 A real life story in dealing with the press Press release: Kvælstof på den globale dagsorden Et detaljeret verdenskort fra studiet viser, at det blandt andet er i lande som Danmark, at sikkerhedszonen for kvælstofforbruget er overskredet. - Indtil nu har vi alle tænkt på udslip af kvælstof fra vores biler, industri og landbrug til naturen som et lokalt miljøproblem, men vores forskning understreger, at de mange lokale problemer tilsammen har konsekvenser for jordens miljø som helhed, siger Katherine Richardson. Hun vurderer, at begrænsning af menneskets udslip af kvælstof i fremtiden vil få en afgørende rolle på den globale dagsorden, ligesom det globale samfund i dag arbejder for at begrænse menneskenes udslip af kulstof (CO 2 ) til miljøet. - Danmark står stærk i forhold til en sådan dagsorden, idet vi er et af de lande i verden, der er mest effektive til at udnytte kvælstof, men vi udleder stadig meget til naturen, og vores høje udledning vil komme under stigende internationalt pres. Her har vi mulighed for at være proaktive ved fortsat at øge vores effektivitet og derved reducere udledningen, siger Katherine Richardson, Website for Landbrug og Fødevare: Ros til dansk landbrug for at begrænse kvælstofudledning Dansk landbrug er blandt verdens dukse, når det handler om udledning af kvælstof. Det gavner både landmanden og det globale miljø, som ifølge ny international rapport har hårdt brug for reduktion af kvælstof. Danmark står stærkt, når det handler om at begrænse udledningen af kvælstof, ikke mindst takket være den indsats danske landmænd yder. Det konkluderer professor Katherine Richardson fra Københavns Universitet i et interview med DR. Hun er en af 18 forskere bag et nyt internationalt studie, som i dag kan læses i det internationale tidsskrift Science. Katherine Richardson peger på, at Danmark er et af de lande, der er mest effektive, når det handler om at udnytte kvælstof. Det bliver der ifølge den internationale forskergruppe hårdt brug for, fordi en begrænsning i menneskets udledning af kvælstof spiller en afgørende rolle på fremtidens globale dagsorden, konkluderer de 18 forskere. Don t believe everything that you read!

29 River water removal Professor Katherine Richardson

30 Climate change

31 To achieve the goal of holding human-caused global warming to < 2 o : -39% reduction by 2030 (from 2010 levels) -72% reduction by 2050

32 How much known fossil fuel reserve needs to remain unburned up to 2050 to remain within the 2 o guardrail? With CCS Without CCS Oil Gas Coal Oil Gas Coal 33% 49% 82% 35% 52% 88 %

33 Climate Change Science and society: Societal perception of Climate Change: when the science is so certain, why is there still so much doubt among non-scientists? Climate Change is usually communicated as a prediction problem. In fact it is a RISK problem

34 Johan Rockström Director of Stockholm Resilience Centre Sustainability Science Congress 2014 Professor Katherine Richardson

35 The COP process is an exercise in developing mechanisms to manage environmental resources at the global level! Regarded as part of a process COP 15 looks much more like a succes than the failure it was portrayed to be!

36 COP 21, Paris 2015 We GOT an agreement!! No binding agreement on emissions (pledges) No binding agreement on financing 2 o guardrail is reconfirmed (strengthened!) ALL countries are equal players Some agreement on what and how to measure/report An agreement to make new (more ambitious) pledges in the coming years COP 21 provides a clear signal of the direction in which the international community is headed!

37 For Denmark: 1990 emission sources: 59% heat and electricity 7% open environment 2% NS oil and gas 16% transport 16% agriculture EU Emission reduction goal of 80-95% in relation to 1990 by Goal of removing fossil fuels from heat and electricity by 2050 MUST be retained! 2. An 80% cannot be achieved without a focus on TRANSPORT and AGRICULTURE! Is Denmark a climate duks??

38 An alternative view of the COP process:

39 % reduction wrt 1990 Professor Katherine Richardson EU and USA: The COP Increasing ambition level signalling: Domestic! Climate is taken seriously Decision-makers are beginning Series1 to believe in Series2 both the TECHNOLOGY necessary and the ECONOMY in addressing climate change. Emissions reduction targets ref 1990 EU, USA China is where it really gets interesting!

40 A scenario for China s 2030 emissions intensity target (60-65% reduction in emissions intensity ) Source: Frank Jotzo, ANU Annual GDP growth rates 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% China s 2030 target implies that emissions intensity will fall ~4%pa from 2005 to This is historically unprecedented, but achievable given China s potential for energy efficiency, structural change and shifting away from coal. China is on track for this target, and for the 2020 target of a 40-45% emissions intensity reduction. The CO2 emissions trajectory could be quite flat, as in the example in the graph, in line with experience in developed countries. Motivations for decarbonization in China: improving air pollution and energy security, and leadership in new energy industries.

41 With current pledges, a 2.7 o warming is most likely: Carbon Action Tracker Respecting the 2 o guardrail is still possible but would require more ambitious pledges in the coming years

42 At deadline (1 Oct.) 146 countries submitted pledges that cover 90 % of current global emissions:

43 Environmental management at the global level??