Plastindustrien i Danmark & Norsk Kompositforbund

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1 Plastindustrien i Danmark & Norsk Kompositforbund Emner : Status & Trends Nye markeder - Kina Leverings flaskehalse Vinger til vindmøller Prognose til 2012 Perspektiver og Udfordringer for danske aktører Indlæg v/ Birger T. Madsen, BTM Consult ApS Status og perspektiver for vindkraft internationalt Nordiske Kompositdage Aalborg Universitet den 26. August 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni

2 Verdensmarkedet 2007 Vækst i ny installation - 32 % Vækst i akkumuleret installation - 27% Årlig afsætning nær 20 GW Europa vokser, men bliver mindre relativt Kraftig vækst i USA og KINA Asiatiske fabrikanter (Kina & Inden) leverer 18 % af 2007 installationen BTM Consult ApS Juni

3 World Market Growth rates Year: Installed MW Increase % Cumulative MW Increase % ,227 32, ,344 15% 40,301 26% ,154-2% 47,912 19% ,542 42% 59,399 24% ,016 30% 74,306 25% ,791 32% 94,005 27% Average growth - 5 years 22.3% 24.0% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 WMU Metode og kilder: 1) Markedstal hvad er observeret opstillet 2-3 kilder på alle hovedmarkeder. 2) Leveringstal referencelister detalieret på antal MW, Styktal og destination for opstilling kilder er alle større og mindre Fabrikanter firmaer. BTM -C s World Market Update (WMU) er udgivet årligt i marts måned siden 1995 (13 år) og er i dag verdens mest citerede reference mht. vindkraftudbygning (MW) og industriudvikling. BTM Consult ApS Juni

4 20,000 Installed Wind Power in the World - Annual and Cumulative - 100,000 18,000 90,000 16,000 80,000 14,000 70,000 MW per year 12,000 10,000 8,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Cumulative MW 6,000 30,000 4,000 20,000 2,000 10, Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Year BTM Consult ApS Juni

5 Installed capacity in 2006 and 2007 (Global) Installed Accu. Installed Accu. % of installed MW MW MW MW MW Total Americas 3,515 13,577 5,815 19, % Total Europe 7,682 48,627 8,285 56, % Total South & East Asia 3,220 8,963 5,010 13, % Total OECD-Pacific 491 2, , % Total Africa % Total other continents and areas: Annual MW installed capacity Cumulative MW installed in the world Source: BTM Consult ApS - March % 15,016 19,791 74,306 94,005 BTM Consult ApS Juni

6 Installed capacity in 2006 and 2007 (Europe) Installed Accu. Installed Accu. MW MW MW MW Austria Belgium Czech Rep Denmark 14 3, ,088 Estonia Finland France 810 1, ,471 Germany 2,233 20,652 1,667 22,277 Greece Hungary Ireland (Rep.) Italy 417 2, ,721 Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands 351 1, ,745 Norway Poland Portugal 629 1, ,150 Spain 1,587 11,614 3,100 14,714 Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK 631 1, ,394 Rest of Europe: Other East European and Baltic countries. Total Europe 7,682 48,627 8,285 56,824 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni

7 Installed capacity in 2006 and 2007 (Asia) Installed Accu. Installed Accu. MW MW MW MW P.R. China 1,334 2,588 3,287 5,875 India 1,840 6,228 1,617 7,845 Taiwan Rest of Asia: Indonesia, N. Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. Total South & East Asia 3,220 8,963 5,010 13,973 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni

8 Growth rates in the Top-10 markets Accu. Accu. Accu. Accu. Growth rate 3 years end end end end average Country % % Germany 16,649 18,445 20,652 22, % 10.2% USA 6,750 9,181 11,635 16, % 35.7% Spain 8,263 10,027 11,614 14, % 21.2% India 3,000 4,388 6,228 7, % 37.8% P.R. China 769 1,264 2,588 5, % 97.0% Denmark 3,083 3,087 3,101 3, % 0.1% Italy 1,261 1,713 2,118 2, % 29.2% France ,585 2, % 85.7% UK 889 1,336 1,967 2, % 39.1% Portugal 585 1,087 1,716 2, % 54.3% Total "Ten" 41,634 51,303 63,203 80, % 24.5% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni

9 Installed offshore wind power in the World (2006 and 2007) Installed Accu. Installed Accu. MW MW MW MW Country Denmark Ireland The Netherlands Sweden UK Total capacity - World Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Den årlige installation i 2007 udgør ca. 1 % af verdens-markedet og akkumuleret er kapaciteten 1,2%. Ifgl. BTM s seneste prognose vil andelen nå op på 4,7 % i 2012 BTM Consult ApS Juni

10 Top-10 Suppliers in 2007 % of the total market 19,791 MW GAMESA (ES) 15.4% ENERCON (GE) 14.0% GE WIND (US) 16.6% SUZLON (Ind) 10.5% SIEMENS (DK) 7.1% VESTAS (DK) 22.8% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 NORDEX (GE) 3.4% Others 10.5% SINOVEL (PRC) 3.4% ACCIONA (ES) 4.4% GOLDWIND (PRC) 4.2% BTM Consult ApS Juni

11 Supply-Chain udfordringer Sænksmedet legeret stål til flanger, hovedaksler og gearhjul/-aksler Store lejer til gearkasser og hovedaksler Støbegods i efterspurgt kvalitet Stigende verdensmarkedspriser for stål Compositter - specielt kulfibre? Sø-kabler og kraftelektronik (frekv. konv.)? BTM Consult ApS Juni

12 International Wind Energy Development Supply Chain Assessment Main Findings & Conclusion Positions of the Top-Ten Markets and Markets Forecast to 2012 Top-15 WTGs Suppliers and Estimate of Changes in 2008 Key Components: Identification & Capacity - Bottlenecks Key Materials: Identification & Capacity - Bottlenecks Strategic Changes in the Industry BTM Consult ApS Juni Supply Chain Assessment August Page 12

13 Supply constraints on key components & materials ( Part 1) BTM Consult ApS Juni Supply Chain Assessment August Page 13

14 Blades Four common blade manufacturing technologies BTM Consult ApS Juni Supply Chain Assessment August Page 14

15 Blades Independent blade manufacturers BTM Consult ApS Juni Supply Chain Assessment August Page 15

16 Kina Kina blev i 2007 det næststørste marked i verden Kineserne leverer 55 % af deres vindkraft fra egne fabrikker BTM Consult ApS Juni

17 Nøgletal for væksten i Kina Kina er det marked i verden som har præsteret den højeste vækst de seneste 3 år med en gns. årlig stigning på 97 % p.a To kinesiske fabrikanter er på verdens Top-10 fabrikanter: Goldwind og Sinovel Suzlon er markedsførende i Indien Tre asiatiske fabrikanter: Suzlon, Goldwind og Sinovel tegner sig i 2007 for 18 % af verdens vindmølleproduktionen (I 2004 blot 4,4%) BTM Consult ApS Juni

18 Drivers in China Stærkt stigende elforbrug: årligt elforbug øges 230*) TWh/år (IEA-WEO 2007) Miljøbevidsthed (Især østkyst provinser) Industriel udvikling - specielt i ydre zoner (Inner Mongolia m.fl) Målsætning: MW i 2020 *) Hele verdens vindkraft kapacitet (ultimo 2007) vil producere 194 TWH i 2008! BTM Consult ApS Juni

19 China s cumulative installed wind capacity in MW by province, 2007 BTM Consult ApS Juni

20 Identified number of suppliers by key-component Key-component: Number of suppliers Blades 7 Gearbox 4 Generator 9 Bearings 4 Towers 10 Electronic Control Equip. 6 Cast Iron items 16 Forged items 10 Total number of companies 66 companies Source: BTM-Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni

21 Forecast for wind power development in China Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of in Installed capacity (MW) in ,000 Forecast Installed capacity between Year Sum Accu. Capacity MW 5,875 3,287 5,500 6,500 7,500 8,000 9,000 36,500 42,375 Source: BTM-Consult ApS - March 2008 Installed capacity in China Cumulative end 2007: 5,875 MW 2012 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of ,000 MW 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Cumulative MW Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast 0 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni

22 Prognose til 2012 Fra 20 GW til 50 GW per år (2012) Størst vækst i USA og Asien BTM Consult ApS Juni

23 Forecast for wind power development (Global) Sum Accu. Total Americas 19,391 5,815 7,900 9,300 11,500 13,200 14,600 56,500 75,891 Total Europe 56,824 8,285 9,880 12,105 15,130 16,725 18,825 72, ,489 Total South & East Asia 13,973 5,010 7,700 9,275 10,800 12,000 13,800 53,575 67,548 Total OECD-Pacific 3, ,050 1,200 1,550 1,800 6,450 9,659 Total other areas ,360 1,760 4,745 5,352 Total MW new capacity every year: 19,791 26,565 32,295 39,455 44,835 50, , ,940 Accu. capacity (MW) 94, , , , , ,940 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of in 2007 Installed capacity (MW) in 2007 Forecast (incl. Offshore) Installed capacity between Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of : Europe - 60,5 % and Asia - 14,9 % 2012: Europe 45,0 % and Asia - 23,5 % (Cumulative capacity by end of year!) BTM Consult ApS Juni

24 60,000 Annual Wind Power Development Actual & Forecast ,000 40,000 MW 30,000 20,000 10, Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Europe USA Asia Rest of World Existing BTM Consult ApS Juni

25 Forecast for wind power develop ment (Europe) Sum Accu. Austria ,000 1,983 Belgium ,127 Czech Rep Denmark 3, ,055 4,143 Estonia Finland France 2, ,300 1,700 2,000 2,200 2,800 10,000 12,471 Germany 22,277 1,667 1,600 1,500 2,000 2,500 2,500 10,100 32,377 Greece ,200 2,187 Hungary Ireland (Rep.) ,400 2,207 Italy 2, ,000 1,200 1,500 1,800 6,400 9,121 Latvia Lithuania Netherlands 1, ,170 2,915 Norway ,200 2,850 3,205 Poland ,000 3,050 3,363 Portugal 2, ,000 1,000 1,200 4,800 6,950 Spain 14,714 3,100 2,500 2,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 11,500 26,214 Sweden ,200 2,989 Switzerland Turkey ,700 1,925 UK 2, ,800 2,000 2,200 2,500 9,400 11,794 Rest of Europe: Other East European and Baltic countries Total Europe 56,824 8,285 9,880 12,105 15,130 16,725 18,825 72, ,489 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of in 2007 Installed capacity (MW) in 2007 Forecast (incl. Offshore) Installed capacity between Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of 2012 BTM Consult ApS Juni

26 Annual Global Wind Power Development Actual Forecast Prediction , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 MW 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Prediction Offshore (Forecast) Forecast Existing capacity Vindkraft bidrager i dag med 1% af verdens el produktion og Iht. prognosen vil vind bidrage med ca. 6 % i 2017 BTM Consult ApS Juni

27 Perspektiver for dansk vindkraft industri 1) Hvis Siemens Wind Power og VESTAS kan fastholde en samlet markedsandel på ca. 30 % - er der udsigt møllesalg for mia. DKK i ) Underleverandører der flytter med ud i markederne får øgede vækstmuligheder også fra andre end deres danske kunder (Kina, Indien og USA) En vigtig forudsætning er at forskning & udvikling, samt fuldskala afprøvning kan udføres på dansk område. Beskæftigelsesmæssigt har vindmølle industrien i dag en størrelse som værftsindustrien havde i 60 erne BTM Consult ApS Juni

28 Wind Power Generation s share of the World-Wide Generation Generation Electricity gen. Electricity from all Wind Power's share Technology by Wind Power gen. sources of the world's electricity (BTM-C) (incl. Wind) IEA generation: Year: TWh TWh % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % 2012 (forecast) , % 2017 (est.) , % Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 ; World Figures: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 BTM Consult ApS Juni

29 Jamen - det ka vel ikke blive ved med at vokse og hva så? Et par antagelser : * Markedet mættet i 2025 med ca. 1,5 mio MW (1.500 GW) kapacitet i verden. (levetid på 20 år giver 5% udskitning pr. år) * Årlig elproduktion i 2025: TWh/år (Omkostninger til service og vedligeholdelse på 5-10 øre /kwh) Der vil så være, * Et marked for udskiftning : MW/år svarende til en omsætning på 577 mia DKK (2007- pris - 25%) * Driftsomkostninger/ O&M marked på 1,5 mio MW vindkraft: 247 mia DKK/år (0,075 DKK/kWh) BTM Consult ApS Juni

30 - A Danish Consultancy Company - Specialised in Wind Energy Utilization Contact information:btm Consult ApS I. C. Christensens Allé 1 DK-6950 Ringkøbing - Denmark Tel: , Fax: [email protected] & [email protected] BTM Consult ApS Juni