Plastindustrien i Danmark & Norsk Kompositforbund Emner : Status & Trends Nye markeder - Kina Leverings flaskehalse Vinger til vindmøller Prognose til 2012 Perspektiver og Udfordringer for danske aktører Indlæg v/ Birger T. Madsen, BTM Consult ApS Status og perspektiver for vindkraft internationalt Nordiske Kompositdage Aalborg Universitet den 26. August 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 1
Verdensmarkedet 2007 Vækst i ny installation - 32 % Vækst i akkumuleret installation - 27% Årlig afsætning nær 20 GW Europa vokser, men bliver mindre relativt Kraftig vækst i USA og KINA Asiatiske fabrikanter (Kina & Inden) leverer 18 % af 2007 installationen BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 2
World Market Growth rates 2002-2007 Year: Installed MW Increase % Cumulative MW Increase % 2002 7,227 32,037 2003 8,344 15% 40,301 26% 2004 8,154-2% 47,912 19% 2005 11,542 42% 59,399 24% 2006 15,016 30% 74,306 25% 2007 19,791 32% 94,005 27% Average growth - 5 years 22.3% 24.0% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 WMU Metode og kilder: 1) Markedstal hvad er observeret opstillet 2-3 kilder på alle hovedmarkeder. 2) Leveringstal referencelister detalieret på antal MW, Styktal og destination for opstilling kilder er alle større og mindre Fabrikanter.18 22 firmaer. BTM -C s World Market Update (WMU) er udgivet årligt i marts måned siden 1995 (13 år) og er i dag verdens mest citerede reference mht. vindkraftudbygning (MW) og industriudvikling. BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 3
20,000 Installed Wind Power in the World - Annual and Cumulative - 100,000 18,000 90,000 16,000 80,000 14,000 70,000 MW per year 12,000 10,000 8,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Cumulative MW 6,000 30,000 4,000 20,000 2,000 10,000 0 0 1983 1990 1995 2000 2007 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Year BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 4
Installed capacity in 2006 and 2007 (Global) Installed Accu. Installed Accu. % of installed MW MW MW MW MW 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 Total Americas 3,515 13,577 5,815 19,391 29.4% Total Europe 7,682 48,627 8,285 56,824 41.9% Total South & East Asia 3,220 8,963 5,010 13,973 25.3% Total OECD-Pacific 491 2,628 597 3,220 3.0% Total Africa 109 386 83 469 0.4% Total other continents and areas: Annual MW installed capacity Cumulative MW installed in the world Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 0 124 3.0 127 0.0% 15,016 19,791 74,306 94,005 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 5
Installed capacity in 2006 and 2007 (Europe) 3 2 4 1 Installed Accu. Installed Accu. MW MW MW MW 2006 2006 2007 2007 Austria 146 966 20 983 Belgium 45 222 75 297 Czech Rep. 23 50 64 114 Denmark 14 3,101 8 3,088 Estonia 25 53 2 55 Finland 4 89 24 113 France 810 1,585 888 2,471 Germany 2,233 20,652 1,667 22,277 Greece 157 862 125 987 Hungary 44 60 4 65 Ireland (Rep.) 250 748 59 807 Italy 417 2,118 603 2,721 Latvia 0 29 0 29 Lithuania 28 34 23 57 Luxembourg 0 12 0 12 Netherlands 351 1,557 210 1,745 Norway 53 328 28 355 Poland 105 170 143 313 Portugal 629 1,716 434 2,150 Spain 1,587 11,614 3,100 14,714 Sweden 62 571 217 789 Switzerland 0 11 0 11 Turkey 56 76 148 225 UK 631 1,967 427 2,394 Rest of Europe: Other East 11 36.5 17.5 54.0 European and Baltic countries. Total Europe 7,682 48,627 8,285 56,824 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 6
Installed capacity in 2006 and 2007 (Asia) Installed Accu. Installed Accu. MW MW MW MW 2006 2006 2007 2007 P.R. China 1,334 2,588 3,287 5,875 India 1,840 6,228 1,617 7,845 Taiwan 46 118 106 224 Rest of Asia: Indonesia, N. Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, 0 28 0.0 28 Thailand, Vietnam, etc. Total South & East Asia 3,220 8,963 5,010 13,973 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 7
Growth rates in the Top-10 markets Accu. Accu. Accu. Accu. Growth rate 3 years end end end end 2006-2007 average Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 % % Germany 16,649 18,445 20,652 22,277 7.9% 10.2% USA 6,750 9,181 11,635 16,879 45.1% 35.7% Spain 8,263 10,027 11,614 14,714 26.7% 21.2% India 3,000 4,388 6,228 7,845 26.0% 37.8% P.R. China 769 1,264 2,588 5,875 127.0% 97.0% Denmark 3,083 3,087 3,101 3,088-0.4% 0.1% Italy 1,261 1,713 2,118 2,721 28.5% 29.2% France 386 775 1,585 2,471 56.0% 85.7% UK 889 1,336 1,967 2,394 21.7% 39.1% Portugal 585 1,087 1,716 2,150 25.3% 54.3% Total "Ten" 41,634 51,303 63,203 80,415 27.2% 24.5% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 8
Installed offshore wind power in the World (2006 and 2007) Installed Accu. Installed Accu. MW MW MW MW Country 2006 2006 2007 2007 Denmark 0 397.9 0 397.9 Ireland 0 25 0 25 The Netherlands 108 126.8 0 126.8 Sweden 0 23.3 110 133.3 UK 90 304 90 394 Total capacity - World 198 877 200 1077 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Den årlige installation i 2007 udgør ca. 1 % af verdens-markedet og akkumuleret er kapaciteten 1,2%. Ifgl. BTM s seneste prognose vil andelen nå op på 4,7 % i 2012 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 9
Top-10 Suppliers in 2007 % of the total market 19,791 MW GAMESA (ES) 15.4% ENERCON (GE) 14.0% GE WIND (US) 16.6% SUZLON (Ind) 10.5% SIEMENS (DK) 7.1% VESTAS (DK) 22.8% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 NORDEX (GE) 3.4% Others 10.5% SINOVEL (PRC) 3.4% ACCIONA (ES) 4.4% GOLDWIND (PRC) 4.2% BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 10
Supply-Chain udfordringer Sænksmedet legeret stål til flanger, hovedaksler og gearhjul/-aksler Store lejer til gearkasser og hovedaksler Støbegods i efterspurgt kvalitet Stigende verdensmarkedspriser for stål Compositter - specielt kulfibre? Sø-kabler og kraftelektronik (frekv. konv.)? BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 11
International Wind Energy Development Supply Chain Assessment 2008-2012 2012 Main Findings & Conclusion Positions of the Top-Ten Markets and Markets Forecast to 2012 Top-15 WTGs Suppliers and Estimate of Changes in 2008 Key Components: Identification & Capacity - Bottlenecks Key Materials: Identification & Capacity - Bottlenecks Strategic Changes in the Industry BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 12 Supply Chain Assessment August 2008 - Page 12
Supply constraints on key components & materials 2008-2012 ( Part 1) BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 13 Supply Chain Assessment August 2008 - Page 13
Blades Four common blade manufacturing technologies BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 14 Supply Chain Assessment August 2008 - Page 14
Blades Independent blade manufacturers BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 15 Supply Chain Assessment August 2008 - Page 15
Kina Kina blev i 2007 det næststørste marked i verden Kineserne leverer 55 % af deres vindkraft fra egne fabrikker BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 16
Nøgletal for væksten i Kina Kina er det marked i verden som har præsteret den højeste vækst de seneste 3 år med en gns. årlig stigning på 97 % p.a To kinesiske fabrikanter er på verdens Top-10 fabrikanter: Goldwind og Sinovel Suzlon er markedsførende i Indien Tre asiatiske fabrikanter: Suzlon, Goldwind og Sinovel tegner sig i 2007 for 18 % af verdens vindmølleproduktionen (I 2004 blot 4,4%) BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 17
Drivers in China Stærkt stigende elforbrug: årligt elforbug øges 230*) TWh/år (IEA-WEO 2007) Miljøbevidsthed (Især østkyst provinser) Industriel udvikling - specielt i ydre zoner (Inner Mongolia m.fl) Målsætning: 30.000 MW i 2020 *) Hele verdens vindkraft kapacitet (ultimo 2007) vil producere 194 TWH i 2008! BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 18
China s cumulative installed wind capacity in MW by province, 2007 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 19
Identified number of suppliers by key-component Key-component: Number of suppliers Blades 7 Gearbox 4 Generator 9 Bearings 4 Towers 10 Electronic Control Equip. 6 Cast Iron items 16 Forged items 10 Total number of companies 66 companies Source: BTM-Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 20
Forecast for wind power development in China 2008-2012 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of in Installed capacity (MW) in 2007 10,000 Forecast 2008-2012 Installed capacity between 2008- Year 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sum Accu. Capacity MW 5,875 3,287 5,500 6,500 7,500 8,000 9,000 36,500 42,375 Source: BTM-Consult ApS - March 2008 Installed capacity in China Cumulative end 2007: 5,875 MW 2012 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of 2012 50,000 MW 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Cumulative MW 0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Installed MW Forecast Cumulative Cumul. forecast 0 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 21
Prognose til 2012 Fra 20 GW til 50 GW per år (2012) Størst vækst i USA og Asien BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 22
Forecast for wind power development 2008-2012 (Global) 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sum Accu. Total Americas 19,391 5,815 7,900 9,300 11,500 13,200 14,600 56,500 75,891 Total Europe 56,824 8,285 9,880 12,105 15,130 16,725 18,825 72,665 129,489 Total South & East Asia 13,973 5,010 7,700 9,275 10,800 12,000 13,800 53,575 67,548 Total OECD-Pacific 3,209 597 850 1,050 1,200 1,550 1,800 6,450 9,659 Total other areas 607 86 235 565 825 1,360 1,760 4,745 5,352 Total MW new capacity every year: 19,791 26,565 32,295 39,455 44,835 50,785 193,935 287,940 Accu. capacity (MW) 94,005 120,570 152,865 192,320 237,155 287,940 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of in 2007 Installed capacity (MW) in 2007 Forecast 2008-2012 (incl. Offshore) Installed capacity between 2008-2012 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of 2012 2007: Europe - 60,5 % and Asia - 14,9 % 2012: Europe 45,0 % and Asia - 23,5 % (Cumulative capacity by end of year!) BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 23
60,000 Annual Wind Power Development Actual 1990-2007 & Forecast 2008-2012 50,000 40,000 MW 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2007 2012 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Europe USA Asia Rest of World Existing BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 24
Forecast for wind power develop ment 2008-2012 (Europe) 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sum Accu. Austria 983 20 100 200 200 250 250 1,000 1,983 Belgium 297 75 100 100 430 100 100 830 1,127 Czech Rep. 114 64 100 120 150 200 150 720 834 Denmark 3,088 8 30 325 300 100 300 1,055 4,143 Estonia 55 2 50 50 75 100 80 355 410 Finland 113 24 50 100 200 200 300 850 963 France 2,471 888 1,300 1,700 2,000 2,200 2,800 10,000 12,471 Germany 22,277 1,667 1,600 1,500 2,000 2,500 2,500 10,100 32,377 Greece 987 125 200 200 200 300 300 1,200 2,187 Hungary 65 4 30 80 130 150 100 490 555 Ireland (Rep.) 807 59 150 300 300 300 350 1,400 2,207 Italy 2,721 603 900 1,000 1,200 1,500 1,800 6,400 9,121 Latvia 29 0 50 75 50 90 75 340 369 Lithuania 57 23 50 75 75 100 75 375 432 Netherlands 1,745 210 220 200 250 200 300 1,170 2,915 Norway 355 28 100 300 500 750 1,200 2,850 3,205 Poland 313 143 250 400 600 800 1,000 3,050 3,363 Portugal 2,150 434 700 900 1,000 1,000 1,200 4,800 6,950 Spain 14,714 3,100 2,500 2,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 11,500 26,214 Sweden 789 217 200 300 500 500 700 2,200 2,989 Switzerland 11 0 30 30 50 75 125 310 321 Turkey 225 148 200 250 300 450 500 1,700 1,925 UK 2,394 427 900 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,500 9,400 11,794 Rest of Europe: Other East European and Baltic countries. 66 18 70 100 120 160 120 570 636 Total Europe 56,824 8,285 9,880 12,105 15,130 16,725 18,825 72,665 129,489 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of in 2007 Installed capacity (MW) in 2007 Forecast 2008-2012 (incl. Offshore) Installed capacity between 2008-2012 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of 2012 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 25
Annual Global Wind Power Development Actual 1990-2007 Forecast 2008-2012 Prediction 2013-2017 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 MW 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1990 2007 2012 2017 Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 Prediction Offshore (Forecast) Forecast Existing capacity Vindkraft bidrager i dag med 1% af verdens el produktion og Iht. prognosen vil vind bidrage med ca. 6 % i 2017 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 26
Perspektiver for dansk vindkraft industri 1) Hvis Siemens Wind Power og VESTAS kan fastholde en samlet markedsandel på ca. 30 % - er der udsigt møllesalg for 110 120 mia. DKK i 2012 2) Underleverandører der flytter med ud i markederne får øgede vækstmuligheder også fra andre end deres danske kunder (Kina, Indien og USA) En vigtig forudsætning er at forskning & udvikling, samt fuldskala afprøvning kan udføres på dansk område. Beskæftigelsesmæssigt har vindmølle industrien i dag en størrelse som værftsindustrien havde i 60 erne BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 27
Wind Power Generation s share of the World-Wide Generation Generation Electricity gen. Electricity from all Wind Power's share Technology by Wind Power gen. sources of the world's electricity (BTM-C) (incl. Wind) IEA generation: Year: TWh TWh % 1996 12.23 13,613 0.09% 1997 15.39 13,949 0.11% 1998 21.25 14,340 0.15% 1999 23.18 14,741 0.16% 2000 37.30 15,153 0.25% 2001 50.27 15,577 0.32% 2002 64.81 16,233 0.40% 2003 82.24 16,671 0.49% 2004 96.50 17,408 0.55% 2005 120.72 17,982 0.67% 2006 152.35 18,576 0.82% 2007 194.16 19,189 1.01% 2012 (forecast) 605.4 22,571 2.68% 2017 (est.) 1573.8 26,549 5.93% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 ; World Figures: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 28
Jamen - det ka vel ikke blive ved med at vokse og hva så? Et par antagelser : * Markedet mættet i 2025 med ca. 1,5 mio MW (1.500 GW) kapacitet i verden. (levetid på 20 år giver 5% udskitning pr. år) * Årlig elproduktion i 2025: 3.300 TWh/år (Omkostninger til service og vedligeholdelse på 5-10 øre /kwh) Der vil så være, * Et marked for udskiftning : 75.000 MW/år svarende til en omsætning på 577 mia DKK (2007- pris - 25%) * Driftsomkostninger/ O&M marked på 1,5 mio MW vindkraft: 247 mia DKK/år (0,075 DKK/kWh) BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 29
- A Danish Consultancy Company - Specialised in Wind Energy Utilization Contact information:btm Consult ApS I. C. Christensens Allé 1 DK-6950 Ringkøbing - Denmark Tel: +45 97 32 52 99, Fax: +45 97 32 55 93 E-mail: btm@btm.dk & pk@btm.dk http://www.btm.dk BTM Consult ApS Juni 2008 30