Supply Chain Foresight. 12. Juni 2013

Størrelse: px

Starte visningen fra side:

Download "Supply Chain Foresight. 12. Juni 2013"

Thomas Holmberg
8 år siden
Visninger:

1 Supply Chain Foresight 12. Juni 2013

2 Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil Kristensen Medlemsbaseret non-profit forening Privat, neutral og uafhængig Tværfaglig tænketank (økonomer, politologer, etnologer, kommunikationsfolk, sociolog, astrofysiker og filosof) Ca. 20 medarbejdere City Future Clubs Hvem er IFF

(økonomer, politologer, etnologer, kommunikationsfolk, sociolog,

3 Hvad laver vi? Prisvindende magasin Medlemsrapporter

4 Kan stadig downloades

5 CIFS kunder

6 At studere fremtiden er en del af den menneskelige natur Det er en afgørende faktor i vores politiske, sociale, kulturelle og økonomiske udvikling. Det er et grundlæggende aspekt i Hvem vi er? Og hvordan vi fungere?.

sociale, kulturelle og økonomiske udvikling.

7 Forudsigelser er sjældent selvopfyldende I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing President George W. Bush July 2008

8 Kunderne bliver stadig mere krævende.. "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

9 Kan vi spørge dem? If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made a faster horse Henry Ford

10 Tidshorisont på år Påvirker samfundet over en bred front Stor effekt man kan ikke gemme sig for en megatrend Implikationerne afhænger af hvor man står internt afhængige Vi har en tendens til at overvurdere konsekvenserne på kort sigt Og undervurdere dem på længere sigt Megatrends er aggregerede enkeltbegivenheder der trækker i samme retning og ændre vores omverden Top level megatrend Sub-trend trends Individual obeservations

konsekvenserne på kort sigt Og undervurdere dem på længere sigt Megatrends er aggregerede enkeltbegivenheder

11 Et eksempel fra IFF Vi må regne med et voksende antal mellemindkomstlande som konkurrenter, men også som markeder - hvis vi forstår at arbejde under deres politiske og kulturelle omstændigheder. Inden år 2005 må vi regne med, at Kina, og måske Indien, vil høre til disse lande. Kilde, IFF: Mod år 2005, 1980

deres politiske og kulturelle omstændigheder.

12 Megatrends Demografisk udvikling Sundhedsfokus Netværkssamfund Bæredygtighed / klimaforandring Videns eksplosion Økonomiske polarisering Globalisering Immaterielt fokus Demokratisering Kommercialisering Individualisering Økonomisk vækst Acceleration & kompleksitet Teknologisk udvikling

polarisering Globalisering Immaterielt fokus Demokratisering

13 Acceleration udfordre sikkerheden i markedespositioner

14 Accelerating pace of change Exponential rate of ICT development Technological progress in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up. Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction CEO s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years) The rate of replacement of Fortune Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April

Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction CEO s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.

15 Significance Customers, innovation, competitors the biggest threat to organizations Business Interruption Reputation Political Risk Customer Preference Innovation Economic Conditions Technology Shifts Competitor Shifts Regulation Terrorism Hazards Compliance Interest rates Credit Risk Foreign Exchange Likelihood Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)

Conditions Technology Shifts Competitor Shifts Regulation Terrorism Hazards Compliance

16 Convergens Energy Infrastructure Competition convergence ICT Players Automobile & homeowners assistance

17 Øget acceleration og kompleksitet imødegås med ønsket om øget fleksibilitet/agilitet i værdikæden. Eksempelvis på forpligtelser overfor medarbejdere: I OECD-landene har væksten i midlertidige jobs været gange så høj som væksten i faste ansættelser siden 90 erne I Frankrig har væksten været 66% mod 7% i faste jobs fra Tendensen er stærk og rammer alle virksomhedens områder Source: McKinsey, 2012

1.5 2 gange så høj som væksten i faste ansættelser siden 90 erne I Frankrig har væksten været 66% mod

18 Forbrugerne reagere på samme måde Eje Lease Service Aktiver/Pant Cash flow

19 Megatrends Demografisk udvikling Sundhedsfokus Netværkssamfund Bæredygtighed / klimaforandring Videns eksplosion Økonomiske polarisering Globalisering Immaterielt fokus Demokratisering Kommercialisering Individualisering Økonomisk vækst Acceleration & kompleksitet Teknologisk udvikling

20 Adgang/service er vigtigere end ejerskab

21 Fordele ved leje- og deleordninger Større fleksibilitet og mobilitet Bedre service Stordriftsfordele Koordinering via internet Del af et fællesskab Fremfor alt: Mere bekvemmelighed

25 Robottaxien kommer når man kalder

26 FREEDOM FROM OWNING

27 In-line Shopping

28 Are you Online or offline Right now?

29 One Billion smartphone users make that Question meaningless

30 Smartphones hele tiden Percentage of smartphone non-voice usage: Global 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% In bed Early morning Commuting Late morning During lunch Early afternoon Late afternoon Early evening During dinner Late evening In bed Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab Analytical Platform 2012 Base: Android/iPhone smartphone users in 57 countries

31 Alt i real time - smartphones og tablets ændre vores adfærd Vi er utålmodige Vi er villige til at bidrage Vi forventer respons her og nu Vi accepterer ikke dårlige undskyldninger "Twitter has done a great job of real-time search. I think we ve done a relatively poor job of... things that work on a per-second basis. I ve been telling our search teams for some time, you need results for every second. They laugh at me. I don t think they understand this. I think we will do a better job of some of these things now". Source: Larry Page (Google founder) in Wired Magazine

34 To modsat rettede effekter ORGANIZATIONS Stadig mere avancerede og individuelt tilpassede services Utålmodighed Mere fleksibilitet og strategisk agilitet PEOPLE

35 Fremtiden er her nu. Customers want products that are more efficient, that last longer and perform better. And increasingly they want information about the entire lifecycle of a product so they can feel good about buying it. They want to know that the materials in the product are safe, that it was made well and that it was produced in a responsible way. We do not see this as a trend that will fade. Higher customer expectations are a permanent part of the future. At Walmart, we re working to make sustainability sustainable, so that it s a priority in good times and in the tough times. An important part of that is developing the tools to help enable sustainable consumption. Mike Duke, CEO of Walmart

36 Outsourcing industry s paradigm changing Current outsourcing business models place too much focus on cost cutting and not enough on value generation. A future vision: Outsourcing becomes strategic. Leaders create a seamless organization of in-house and outsourced personnel which maximizes both value for both without raising costs. New focus on R&D, data analysis and innovation knowledge outsourcing will grow in importance Source: Dean Kashiwagi (2011), ISS Vision 2020 (2011), Per Anker Jensen (2010)

37 Achieving the vision Focus on outcomes, not transaction s Agree on clearly defined and measurable outcomes Governance structure provides insight, not merely oversight The outsourcing organizatio n learning from experience and willing to make correspondi ng changes to better manage future relations Source: Vested Outsourcing

38 Evolution of outsourcing In the beginning, outsourced foreign workers did mainly back office work, such as data entry, billing and accounting. Today, the outsourcing of knowledgebased services is expanding to high tech and professional jobs. Outsourced workers are now doing work such as software development, paralegal work, and financial investment research. Tomorrow, everybody? Rethinking global footprints

39 Outsourcing is it always better? Point Outsourcing typically produces greater cost savings. Superior systems, processes, technologies and economies of scale as well as easier access to offshore labor often enable an outside vendor to do the work more efficiently. In many cases, outsourcing also delivers better quality by capitalizing on a vendor s specialized knowledge, experience and talent. Outsourcing tends to be implemented faster. It is in the vendor s best interest to implement the services and solutions as quickly as possible. Also, less time is wasted on internal politics and inertia. Outsourcing helps avoid future investments such as costly system upgrades. Outsourcing provides greater flexibility by turning fixed costs into variable costs. Counterpoint Outsourcing vendors are not the only organizations with access to world-class systems, processes, technologies and talent. Organizations with sufficient capabilities and scale may be able to save money and achieve better quality -- by keeping services in house. Also, the cost of transitioning to an outsourced model can be significant and must be factored into the decision. Although vendor self-interest can be a useful tool, it can also be a battering ram that produces the wrong results. Make sure the vendor s actions align with your organization s objectives. It might make sense to optimize your processes and systems before the transition, even if it takes a little longer. Although the outsourcing vendor will be responsible for future upgrades, it is likely to focus on improvements within its own four walls. This can limit the ability to improve the endto-end process, which is typically where the greatest value is found. That s true from a cost perspective. But from a strategic perspective, locking yourself into an outsourcing contract may actually reduce your options and flexibility. Source: Deloitte (2012)

40 Vi ser hele tiden nye løsninger Undgå at hænge fast i traditionelle mønstre udnyt alle værdiskabende muligheder. Fremtiden tilhøre de der formår at gentænke deres supply chain og deres position i nye mere værdiskabende koncepter og services

41 Thank you! Claus Kjeldsen

Relaterede dokumenter

Forretningssystemer. 24. Oktober 2013

Forretningssystemer. 24. Oktober 2013 Forretningssystemer 24. Oktober 2013 Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil Kristensen Medlemsbaseret non-profit forening Privat, neutral og uafhængig Tværfaglig tænketank (økonomer, politologer, etnologer, kommunikationsfolk,