Hvem er IFF. Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil Kristensen Medlemsbaseret non-profit forening Privat, neutral og uafhængig Tværfaglig tænketank

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2 Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil Kristensen Medlemsbaseret non-profit forening Privat, neutral og uafhængig Tværfaglig tænketank (økonomer, politologer, etnologer, kommunikationsfolk, sociolog, astrofysiker og filosof) Ca. 20 medarbejdere City Future Clubs Hvem er IFF

3 Hvad laver vi? Prisvindende magasin Medlemsrapporter

4 Bred kundebase

5 At studere fremtiden er en del af den menneskelige natur Det er en afgørende faktor i vores politiske, sociale, kulturelle og økonomiske udvikling. Det er et grundlæggende aspekt i Hvem vi er? Og hvordan vi fungere?.

6 Tidssyn - fremtidsperspektiv Fortidsorienterede Nutidsorienterede Fremtidsorienterede De go e gamle dage Seeing is beliving Bring the change Udfordring: Hvordan får vi dem til at arbejde sammen? Implementation eats strategy for breakfast

7 Vi ser verden som som vi er og ikke som verden er

8 Tidssyn 2014 og % 2004 Skabere 15% Navigatører 32% Tilpassere 33% Fastholdere 20% 55% 15% 2004 Fremtidsorien terede Nutidsoriente rede Fortidsorient erede 2014

9 Forudsigelser er sjældent selvopfyldende I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing President George W. Bush July 2008

10 Kunderne bliver stadig mere krævende.. "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

11 Kan vi spørge dem? If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made a faster horse Henry Ford

12 Tidshorisont på år ikke nødvendigvis lineære Påvirker samfundet over en bred front Stor effekt man kan ikke gemme sig for en megatrend Implikationerne afhænger af hvor man står internt afhængige Vi har en tendens til at overvurdere konsekvenserne på kort sigt Og undervurdere dem på længere sigt Megatrends er aggregerede enkeltbegivenheder der trækker i samme retning og ændre vores omverden Top level megatrend Sub-trend trends Individual obeservations

13 How companies use megatrends: Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey: - Capture market oppotunities - Test risks - Spur innovation Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies - Basis for innovation process - Basis for scenario planning - Basis for Early Warning Systems - First step in quality assessment of business and strategy concepts (investment themes) Matthias Horx, Futurist: - Better decision making in strategic management - Quicker and more precise innovation generation

14 En god model til anvendelse af megatrends og identifikation af strategiske temaer Society and values Technology developments Economic Environmental stresses Political developments Regional and national stakeholders (outside of industry) Media options Funding Competitors Political and legislative actors (relevance in industry) Suppliers Meeting of physical and digital infrastructure Influencers Players in value chain Consumer advocates Din organisation Trusler Megatrends Contextual environment Transactional environment Strategy Business development Innovation Muligheder 14

15 Et eksempel fra IFF Vi må regne med et voksende antal mellemindkomstlande som konkurrenter, men også som markeder - hvis vi forstår at arbejde under deres politiske og kulturelle omstændigheder. Inden år 2005 må vi regne med, at Kina, og måske Indien, vil høre til disse lande. Kilde, IFF: Mod år 2005, 1980

16 It s all about timing Apple Newton ipad

17 Megatrends Demographic development Focus on health Network society Sustainability Knowledge society Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Individualization Economic growth Acceleration and complexity Technologic development

18 Accelerating pace of change

19 Accelerating pace of change Exponential rate of ICT development Technological progress in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up. Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction CEO s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years) The rate of replacement of Fortune Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April

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23 When assets become liabilities Blockbuster video

24 Significance Customers, innovation, competitors the biggest threat to organizations Business Interruption Reputation Political Risk Customer Preference Innovation Economic Conditions Technology Shifts Competitor Shifts Regulation Terrorism Hazards Compliance Interest rates Credit Risk Foreign Exchange Likelihood Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)

25 Industries converge Five largest mobile handset manufacturers worldwide based on quarterly sales figures (total units sold) Nokia 1. Samsung 2. Motorola 2. Nokia 3. Ericsson 3. Apple 4. Siemens 4. ZTE 5. Panasonic 5. LG Electronics Source: Gartner dataquest, 2010, 2012

26 Hvilke markeder konvergerer i jeres branche? Er i tæt på kunderne/markedet?

27 Accelerating pace of change Exponential rate of ICT development Technological progress - in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks - has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up. Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction CEO s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years) The rate of replacement of Fortune Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April

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29 Accelerating pace of change The rate of replacement of Fortune1000 CEO s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years) Companies respond by Change workplace strategies continuously Respond by cutting costs, working longer hours Increase flexibility Seek protection in networks Shift assets into managed cash flow through freedom from ownership Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April

30 Øget acceleration og kompleksitet imødegås med ønsket om øget fleksibilitet/agilitet i værdikæden. Eksempelvis på forpligtelser overfor medarbejdere: I OECD-landene har væksten i midlertidige jobs været gange så høj som væksten i faste ansættelser siden 90 erne I Frankrig har væksten været 66% mod 7% i faste jobs fra Tendensen er stærk og rammer alle virksomhedens områder Source: McKinsey, 2012

31 The world is changing fast. Big will not beat small anymore. It will be the fast beating the slow. Rupert Murdoch

32 Vi går fra produkt til service Eje Lease Service Aktiver/Pant Cash flow

33 Answer: Seek networks and partnerships

34 Hierarkier udfordres af Netværk 1900 er Non-social interaktion Værdi i transaktioner Businessstabilitet Veldefinerede industrier og hierarkier Envejsmarkeder Begrænset information Overskud af ressourcer Institutioner Drivkræfter Ambient kommunikation Globale informationsstrømme Social computing Markedets diskontinuitet 2000 er Gennemgribende social interaktion Værdi i forhold Business i flux Industritransformation Tovejsmarkeder Informations overflod Ressourcemæssige begrænsninger Fællesskaber KONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010

35 Hvordan går I fra produkt til service? Hvordan øger I kundens fleksibilitet? Er der dele af deres værdikæde i skal drive?

36 Implikationer af acceleration og kompleksitet Kan vi spotte ændret kundeadfærd i vores BI (early warning) Er vi gearet til at lede/styre fremtidens projektorganisation Hvordan samarbejder vi i vores værdikæde med specialiserede eksterne aktører Hvordan håndterer vi sikkerhed i en mere åben struktur

37 How does this affects private consumption? MR1 2013

38 Adgang/service er vigtigere end ejerskab

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42 Robottaxien kommer når man kalder

43 Fordele ved leje- og deleordninger Større fleksibilitet og mobilitet Bedre service Stordriftsfordele Koordinering via internet Del af et fællesskab Fremfor alt: Mere bekvemmelighed

44 Sharing economy Source: The Economist (2013)

45 FREEDOM FROM OWNING

47 Markedspolarisering Midterpositionen er farlig Op til Über premium Performance Design Kult Ned til discount Pris på Nul kroner Kilde: McKinsey Quarterley 2005/4. Knudsen&Randel&Rugholm: The Vanishing Middle Market

49 Økonomisk vækst

50 3 trends challenge China Ageing Institutional quality Reshoring? Stagnation Instability

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52 Institutional quality is crucial Source: Fatás & Mihov HBR Based on: Governance Matters VII: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators Daniel Kaufmann Aart Kraay Massimo Mastruzzi The World Bank Development Research Group June 2008

53 What IF? 20xx AD

54 The transatlantic economy VS the rest of the world (% of total GDP based on purchasing-power-parity)

55 Personal consumption in developing Europe VS China (billions of USD)

56 European Regional Economic Growth Index ( ) Source: Lasalle Investment Management, 2013

57 Bestseller: Indkøb til vores butikker i London og Newcastle i nord er lige så forskelligt som at købe ind til to forskellige lande Gennemsnitlig husstandsindkomst 2014 i pund London Øvrige Storbritannien Storbritannien gennemsnitsalder ,7 42,9 London-regionen Øvrige Storbritannien South West (Bristol)

58 The world has 23 megacities metropolitan areas with populations in excess of 10 million. The household names of the urban world, these firsttier cities produce some 14 percent of global GDP. Between now and 2025, as the urban world shifts south and east, these traditional megacities are set to be joined by 13 new ones seven of them in China, and only one (Chicago) in the developed world. FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

59 Feminization of society - the evolution of authority

60 Kvinderne er fremtidens vindere Kvindernes andel af kandidater voksede 2,5 gange hurtigere end mændenes Kvindernes andel af nordiske kandidater ISCED Ingeniør og naturvidenskab uforandret 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% ,00% Social science, business and law 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing Men Women 5. Engineering, manufacturing and construction Lineær ( 3. Social science, business and law) Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing) Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing) Kilde: Nordstat, 2011

61 She-conomy The average American woman is expected to earn more than the average American male by Women account for 85% of all consumer purchases : 91% of New Homes 66% PCs 92% Vacations 80% Healthcare 65% New Cars 89% Bank Accounts 93% Food 93 % OTC Pharmaceuticals Sources: She-conomy.com

62 En ny samfunds struktur INDUSTRI SAMFUNDET NÆSTE SAMFUND Ens artet/ standardisering Stabilitet/kontrol/ forudseenhed Rationel Løbende marginal forbedringer Hierarkisk struktur/central styret Skarpe grænser Lukket/selvforsyndende Undgår fejl Pligt Styrk svagheder Mangfoldighed/unik Usikkerhed/tilfældighed Kreativ Radikal innovation Uformel/decentral/ selvledelse Flydende grænser Åben/netværk Lærer af fejl Lyst styret Udvikel talent Logik: lineære sammenhæng mellem input og output Logik: hyper- ikke lineære sammenhænge, tipping point

63 Investment in product development Business model Product system Sales channel Customer exp. Network Product Service Brand Core proces Sup. Proces Larry Keeley projects examined.

64 Value Creation due to product development Business model Product system Sales channel Network Product Service Brand Core proces Sup. Proces Customer exp. Larry Keeley projects examined.

65 Thank you! Claus Kjeldsen