Bæredygtig vandindvinding og værdisætning af ferskvand

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1 Bæredygtig vandindvinding og værdisætning af ferskvand Vand i byer stormøde 11. maj 2017 Odense Hans Jørgen Henriksen Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate

Management of sustainable groundwater abstraction in Denmark Background. Sustainable groundwater abstraction. Environmental flow and aquifer sustainability (safe yield).

2 Management of sustainable groundwater abstraction in Denmark Background. Sustainable groundwater abstraction. Environmental flow and aquifer sustainability (safe yield). Implemented in RBMP with the national hydrological model (DK model), a transient, national GW-SW numerical model. Aquifer sustainability and environmental flow (GW Directive/WFD): Aquifer sustainability (max 30 % abstraction of recharge to groundwater aquifers) Ecological flow sustainability (DVFI/macroinvertebrates, DVPI/macrophyttes and DFFVa/fish) RBMP 2 Implementation of new indicators for ecological flow and WFD quantitative status with DK model (=> 15 km2) Follow up: Vand-web (API) for municipalities for screening of impacts from abstractions based on DK model scenarios 2

Protection of ecosystems and drinking water Groundwater dependent terrestrial

3 Assessing groundwater quantitative and chemical status (according to EU directives WFD/GWD) Ecological flow rivers (groundwater associated wetlands) Protection of ecosystems and drinking water Groundwater dependent terrestrial and associated aquatic ecosystems Aquifer sustainability (saltwater intrusion) Figure by IWMI

4 Definitions of aquifer safe yield and environmental flow requirements

Historical background for Denmark State of the art in assessment of sustainable groundwater abstraction Exploitable ressource Groundwater abstraction Ferskvandets kredsløb (4 indikatorer) (Henriksen

5 Historical background for Denmark State of the art in assessment of sustainable groundwater abstraction Exploitable ressource Groundwater abstraction Ferskvandets kredsløb (4 indikatorer) (Henriksen et al. 2008; Olsen et al. 2013) Sustainable groundwater abstraction review rapport. GEUS og 6 vandselskaber (Henriksen og Refsgaard, 2013) GWDTE has not been included yet in WFD New 3D groundwater bodies RBMP 2 (400) Henriksen et al Last nationwide exploitable gw ressource assessment (2003). Water quality, climate variability included (1 mia. m3 available for Denmark) New ecological flow hydrological regime indicators for fish, macrophytes and plants (GEUS report 2014/74) Small streams (75 % of all Danish streams) are considered as the most vulnerable to groundwater abstraction; these have not been included in RBMP2 -> licenses

RBMP2: Model based assessment of quantitative status of groundwater Goals: More transparent and harmonised methodology DK model quantify impacts of abstractions on

6 RBMP2: Model based assessment of quantitative status of groundwater Goals: More transparent and harmonised methodology DK model quantify impacts of abstractions on eco-hydrological indicators and groundwater safe yield National hydrological model based on 7 sub-models 500x500 m layers Abstraction

7 Development of DK model 2013/14 Extension of river network > 850 streams, ~ km (in total km) New waste water discharge data (AU-bioscience) New dynamic precipitation correction New soil parameters (AUagroscience) 400 New groundwater bodies (3D) Inverse calibration with PEST Daily flow for different scenarios => ecological flow Safe yield and water balance assessments for aquifers and catchments (3D GW bodies) River network

Reduction in river discharge Qmm due to groundwater abstraction (% reduction in Q median min) 45 % 33-45 %

8 Reduction in river discharge Qmm due to groundwater abstraction (% reduction in Q median min) 45 % % % 5-10 % 0-5 % Increase due to treated waster water discharge Sub-catchment scale: ID15 ~ 15 km2

9 DCE empirical equations for larger rivers Empirical equations was derived from observed biological quality elements and daily discharge data for for monitoring stations from the NOVANA program: DVFI (N=122/R2=0,44), DVPI (N=91/R2 =0,34) DFFVa (N=61/R2=0,49) Aarhus University - Bioscience (Graeber et al., 2014) Macroinvertebrates Macrophyttes Fish

Sub-catchments with red color has > 80 % probability for reduced ecologi

10 Model simulated changes in DVFI (macroinvertebrates) and DFFVa (fish) Model simulated changes in DVFI and DFFVa. Sub-catchments with red color has > 80 % probability for reduced ecological status (e.g. from good to moderate), orange colors has % probability and yellow % probability for reduced ecological state (by one class) EQR threshold values

11 How are groundwater bodies related to ID15s? (Sjælland) Reduction in low flow (%) Related GW bodies Reduction median min Q (%) Related groundwater bodies (9)

12 Which groundwater bodies are at risk? (Sjælland) DVPI DVFI DVPI EQR change (3 GW bodies) DVFI EQR change (5 GW bodies)

Poor quantitative and chemical status (Sjælland) DFFVa 377 365 358 252/3 403 270 375 404 277 377 367 253 356 378 406 252 356 378 406 408 DFFVa EQR change (7 GW bodies)

13 Poor quantitative and chemical status (Sjælland) DFFVa / DFFVa EQR change (7 GW bodies) 407 Red: Poor chemical status Green: God chemical status Underlined: Poor quantitative status (water balance test aquifer safe yield) GW Abstraction > 30 % of Recharge

14 Lowering of shallow groundwater level (m) (phreatic depth) < 0 Mean phreatic depth (m)

15 RBMP2 in Denmark Overall result for groundwater bodies (chemical status not included) Good Poor Trend -> poor >80 % risk % risk % risk Aquifer sustainability Ecological flow sustainability 15

16 Nature Insurance value: Assessment and demonstration (NAIAD) The assumption (tested in NAIAD) is that nature based solutions can reduce vulnerability to climate induced hazards, especially droughts and flooding, and this risk reduction can be assessed and incorporated within insurance schemes H2020-SC RIA (call Greening the economy ) Start: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate (Kick-off end of January 2017) Duration: 36 months

17 OVERVIEW OF COPENHAGEN DEMO Aim: to develop a Bayesian Network based modelling framework to assess the insurance value of blue and green infrastructure ecosystems with respect to urban surface- and groundwater induced flooding, influenced by climate change induced sea level rise Urban surface and groundwater induced flooding is simulated using a MIKE SHE developed model for Copenhagen. The Østerbro subcatchment is selected as area within the Copenhagen DEMO. Pension & Forsikring released data on urban flooding damage for mapping insured flooding damage costs. Collaboration with other urban DEMO s, Rotterdam and Lodz, anticipated.

Pilot BBN Key Stakeholders City of Copenhagen and Frederiksberg HOFOR Water supply company Citizens Bayesian Belief Network for Copenhagen DEMO Nature Based Solutions 1.

18 Pilot BBN Key Stakeholders City of Copenhagen and Frederiksberg HOFOR Water supply company Citizens Bayesian Belief Network for Copenhagen DEMO Nature Based Solutions 1. Green and blue infrastructure in Copenhagen 2. Lessen the risk for urban flooding 3. Anticipated Natural Assurance Scheme based on green an blue infrastructural solutions. INSURANCE VALUE OF ECOSYSTEMS Private home owners and insurance companies, public authorities and utility companies are anticipated to benefit from investing in NBS to reduce flooding risk and assurance premiums

19 Østerbro area

20 Konklusion Bæredygtig vandindvinding kan opgøres i forhold til en række hovedkategorier: økonomisk/social bæredygtig, CO2 bæredygtig, bæredygtig grundvandsindvinding og bæredygtig arealanvendelse Jf. Grundvandsdirektivet indgår en række tests i vurdering af kvantitativ og kemiske tilstand. Kvantitativ tilstand: (max 30 % af grundvandsdannelse) og påvirkning af økologiske flow indikatorer for fisk, smådyr og planter Den seneste landsdækkende tilstandsvurdering blev foretaget I 2003 i forbindelse med Ferskvandets kredsløb (vi har 1 mia. m3/år) Vandområdeplaner peger på at ressourceudnyttelsen mange steder i landet er problematisk såfremt man anlægger et forsigtighedsprincip. Københavnsområdet er kritisk på flere parametre, både kemisk og kvantitativ tilstand er dårlig for forekomst 377 I NAIAD projektet kigges nærmere på værdisætning af naturbaseret klimatilpasning (blå-grønne løsninger) i København. Formålet er at operationalisere forsikringsværdien af økosystemer med henblik på at reducere menneskelige & økonomiske risici forbundet oversvømmelser 22

21 Tak for opmærksomheden Graeber, D, Wiberg-Larsen, P, Bøgestrand, J and Baattrup Pedersen, A, Vurdering af vandindvinding på vandløbs økologiske tilstand. Notat fra DCE. 27 Aug DCE Nationalt Center for Miljø og Energi. Institut for Bioscience. 26 pp. Henriksen, HJ and Refsgaard, JC 2013: Sustainable groundwater abstraction. GEUS Report 30/2013. Olsen, M., Troldbrog, L., Henriksen, H.J., Conallin, J., Refsgaard, J.C. and Bøgh, E Evaluation of a typical hydrological model in relation to environmental flows. Journal of Hydrology, 507, Henriksen, HJ, Troldborg, L, Højberg, AL and Refsgaard, JC Assessment of exploitable groundwater resources of Denmark by use of ensemble resource indicators and numerical groundwater-surface water model. Journal of Hydrology. 348 (1-2) Troldborg L, Sørensen BL, Kristensen M og Mielby S Afgrænsning af grundvandsforekomster. Tredje revision af grundvandsforekomster i Danmark. GEUS rapport 2014/58. Henriksen HJ, Stisen S, van der Keur P, Danapour M, He X and Troldborg L Operationalisering af ny viden til administration af indvindingstilladelser. GEUS rapport nr. 2016/ pp. Henriksen HJ Økologisk flow kræver dynamisk grundvands-overfladevandsmodel. Vand & Jord. Nr :

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