Klimatilpasning og Skybrudsplan. Kan det betale sig? Case: Copenhagen and Frederiksberg. Arne Bernt Hasling.
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1 Aarhus, Regional Miljøkonference Klimatilpasning og Skybrudsplan Kan det betale sig? Case: Copenhagen and Frederiksberg Arne Bernt Hasling 1
2 The basic assumptions Development in economical risk The scenarios for cloudburst adaptation Macroeconomics for the society Most feasible solution 2
3 The basic assumptions: Sewers / Cloudburst Investment period and re-investments 100 years period for comparison Macroeconomics for the society 3
4 Development in economical risk 4
5 Full dynamic analysis of rain and storm surge 5
6 Risk analysis Floods: Where, When, Frequency, Depth, Damage Costs Map extent and depth of floods from Sea Heavy rain Flowing water on surface Rivers, watercourses (Groundwater) FLOW DIRECTIONS RIVERS RAIN SEA LIKELIHOOD Likelihood for floods (statistic year by year and the whole period ) RISK DAMAGE COSTS Damage Costs from floods Total Risk (e.g. economically) Likelihood x consequences 6
7 Development in economically risk caused by floods from rain or sea Klimatilpasningsplan København Sea Year 7 Rain
8 Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios 8
9 Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios 1. Step: Sewers and some cloudburst initiatives 2. Step: Assuming that sewers meet service target Cloudburst initiatives: - all over the city - to same level of safety Two main principles for primary water transportation system: Channels on ground or Tunnels 9
10 Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios Cloudburst initiatives only for areas with more than 15 cm water during the extreme event. 10
11 Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios Local collection and storage systems on surface Main transportation systems on or below ground 11
12 Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios 12
13 Macroeconomics for the society 13
14 Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Cloudburst only: (assuming that the sewers are upgraded or unloaded) Design Storm, Protection Level Damage Reduction Construction and O&M. Open Chanels Net Profit Open Chanels Construction and O&M Pipes and Chanels Net Profit Pipes and Chanels NPV Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. 20-year (2010) Bil.Kr. 100-year (2010) 20-year (2110) year (2110) year (2110) (2/7-2011)
15 Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Sewers only: (upgrading/unload to meet the 2110 situation) Sewer initiative. Protection method Damage Reduction Construction and O&M. Net Profit NPV Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Upgrading sewers 10-year (2110) Non-return valves
16 Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Combination of sewers and cloudburst initiatives: Copenhagen Cloudburst initiatives are also used to relieve the rainwater pressure on the sewers during more comment events. Non-return valves in all connection pipes. Design Storm, Protection Level Damage Reduction Combined Initiative Construction and O&M. Combined Initiative Net Profit Combined Initiative NPV Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. 20-year (2010) year (2010) 20-year (2110) year (2110) year (2110) (2/7-2011)
17 Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Combination of sewers and cloudburst initiatives: Cph. + Frb. Cloudburst initiatives are also used to relieve the rainwater pressure on the sewers during more comment events. Non-return valves in all connection pipes. Design Storm, Protection Level Damage Reduction Combined Initiative Construction and O&M. Combined Initiative Net Profit Combined Initiative NPV Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. 20-year (2010) year (2010) 20-year (2110) year (2110) year (2110) (2/7-2011)
18 Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Most feasible initiatives and potentials (max ) Damage Reduction Total Costs Net Profit Cost Effectiveness
19 Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario Mio kr Gentagelsesperiode for tiltag (år) Tiltagsomkostning Nettogevinst Skadesomkostninger efter tiltag 19
20 Most feasible solution 20
21 Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario Local collection and storage system on surface Main transportation system on or below ground 21
22 Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario 22
23 Adaptation Initiatives Where to start? 23 Nr. Område Økonom isk Let at Synergi Vægtet Nr. Område Økonom risiko isk gennem føre effekter score risikoi nd ex I2 Indre by S 9,00 5 3,6 17,6 I2 Indre by S 100,00 I1 Indre by N 7,02 4 3,6 14,6 I1 Indre by N 78,00 N Østerbro 3,96 3 6,0 13,0 SH Sluseholmen 67,00 SH Sluseholmen 6,03 4 2,4 12,4 M1 Vesterbro 54,00 M1 Vesterbro 4,86 2 2,4 9,3 N Østerbro 44,00 M4 M2 Ladegårdsåen Frederiksberg 35,00 2,25 2 4,8 9,1 CH CH Christianshavn Christianshavn 33,00 2,97 4 1,2 8,2 SVØ Svanemøllen Lersøgrøften 27,00 2,25 2 3,6 7,9 R M4Valby Ladegårdsåen 25,00 1,80 2 3,6 7,4 M2SV Frederiksberg Svanemøllen 25,00 3,15 3 1,2 7,4 U2R Utterslev Valby 20,00 0,63 3 3,6 7,2 Ø A2 Lersøgrøften Kastrup Fort 18,00 2,43 1 3,6 7,0 A2A1 Kastrup Amager Fort Stand 12,00 1,62 3 2,4 7,0 BVKE Vanløse Kongens Enghave 12,00 0,18 3 3,6 6,8 M3 København NV U1 Utterslev mose 12,00 0,36 4 2,4 6,8 V Grøndalsåen 9,00 A1 Amager Stand 1,08 3 2,4 6,5 NH Nordhavn 8,00 KE Kongens Enghave 1,08 3 2,4 6,5 U2 Utterslev 7,00 V Grøndalsåen 0,81 2 3,6 6,4 IB Islands Brygge 5,00 NH Nordhavn 0,72 4 1,2 5,9 U4 Emdrup 5,00 IB Islands Brygge 0,45 3 2,4 5,9 U3 Husum 5,00 M3 U1 København Utterslev mose NV 1,08 4,00 3 1,2 5,3 U4 Emdrup 0,45 1 3,6 5,1
24 Adaptation Initiatives Where to start? 24
25 Adaptation Initiatives When to act? Nettogevinst Net Profit Nettogevinst Profit 25
26 Development in economically risk caused by floods from rain or sea Klimatilpasningsplan København Sea Year 26 Rain
27 Adaptation Initiatives Who are going to pay? Actors, financing and investment plan (budget economy) Interest, 3% Repayment, 30 years Municipality Water Company Interest, 4% Repayment, 50 years Municipality Water Company
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29 Aarhus, Regional Miljøkonference Klimatilpasning og Skybrudsplan Kan det betale sig? Case: Copenhagen and Frederiksberg Arne Bernt Hasling 29
Der var engang 70érne avn i 80érne industrien flytter København i 00 erne opsving København i 00érne København i 2009 Cop 15 København 2010 København 2010 Klimatilpasningsplanen København The Copenhagen
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