- The Northern Perspective

Transkript

1 Future perspectives for transport and logistics in the CBLog region - The Northern Perspective Jacob Kronbak, Associate Professor, Ph.D. Department of Maritime Research and Innovation University of Southern Denmark

2 utline he future need for transport he external cost of transport an mobility be improved? hat can be done? Road Rail Sea hallenges ossibilities

3 he future need for transport he linkage between economic development and transport rognoses How to handle a doubling of traffic within the next 20 ears? We don t need to worry about the doubling the transport rt system will be clocked up by congestion long before that!

4 xternal Cost of Transport Marginal external cost of transporting 16 ton of goods 100 km by diffirent modes Central Danish estimates for 2008 in EUR Truck Freight Train Freight Train Short Sea (diesel) Electrified Shipping Air polution NO X, HC, SO2, CO, Particles 3,76 6,29 0,60 6,56 Clima: 1,47 1,66 0,76 0,47 CO 2 Noise Accidents Congestion Infrastructure 4,30 6,14 2, ,21 1,93 0,91 0 8, ,21 32,12 15,16 0 Sum 42,14 48,14 20,33 7,03 Km for 42,14 EUR ,

5 an mobility be improved? Out-Commuting Transit Yes naturally but Mobility for who? Local In-commuting Transit What are the aims of the stakeholders? Mobillity/Accessibility = f(activity,transport System)

6 hat can be done? se the availble capacity in the transport system best possible here are the potentials?

7 oad Transport (NTN 2008) Danmark AADT Truck Total Truck Share K1 Sydjyske motorvej, ved Frøslev % K2 Kolding Syd % K3 Ikast (afkørsel 40) % K4 Vejle Nord (afkørsel 60) % K5 Vejle Herning (Nord Brande) % K6 Skanderborg Syd (afkørsel 53) % K7 Randers Syd (afkørsel 43) % K8 Viborg øst 16 (afkørsel til rute 503) % K9 Skive 26 (afkørsel Roslev) % K10 Hobro (afkørsel 35) % K11 Aalborg Frederikshavn (afkørsel 15) % K12 Aalborg Hjørring (afkørsel 5) % K13 Fynske Motorvej, Ny Lillebæltsbro % K14 Storebæltsbroen % Norge O1 E39 Auglendhøyden % O2 RV 47 Haugesund N % O3 EV 39 Fjøsangerveien v/ Kristianborgvatnet % O4 Storehaug Nord (E39) % Sverige (2006) E1 Munkedal (E6) % E2 Kungsbacka (E6) (syd) % E3 Glumslöv (E6) % Tyskland E1 Hamburg Nordwest Elbtunnel (A7) % E2 Owschlag (A7) % E3 Neumünster Nord (A7) %

8 ail Transport (NTN 2008) Development in freight transport by rail in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein Sverige Norge Danmark Schleswig-Holstein Hamborg

9 ea transport (NTN 2008) Department of Maritime Research and Innovation

10 hallenges Where are we going? Innovation does not come by itself there are a need for catalyst action

11 osibilities hain perspective Flow of Goods Demand (transport of goods) system approach) Freight Transport Marked Supply (Load uniets) Freight operators Denmand (capacity) Person trafic Traffic Marked Supply (Capacity) Transport Infrastructure

12 osibilities dministrative oarders are not ctivity ii borders hink in clusters THE USE OF GIS FOR MODELLING AND VISUALISATION OF COST-COMPETITION BETWEEN LAND AND SEA TRANSPORT The Great Belt Fixed Link Hamburg Berlin DEPARTMENT OF MARITIM RESEARCH AND INNOVATIO Isocost map showing the accumulated transport co for a land based transport chain originating in Billund Denmark App. location of drive-r Kilometers Land based transport chain Accumulated cost (EUR) < > 2400

13 Thank you for your attention Jacob Kronbak, Associate Professor, Ph.D. Department of Maritime Research and Innovation University of Southern Denmark Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6710 Esbjerg /