La Politique Laitière au Danemark Kirsten Holm Svendsen Dairy Policy Director Danish Dairy Board Brussels s.a. khs@agridan.be
Danish Dairy Board members Cooperatives Arla Foods Amba Thise Mejeri Amba Them Andelsmejeri Bornholms Andelsmejeri Rørbæk Andelsmejeri Naturmælk Amba Sædager Andelsmejeri Endrup Andelsmejeri Asaa Andelsmejeri Bjerre Herreds Mejeriselskab MBM, Færøerne Private dairies Mammen Mejeri A/S Nørup Mejeri Nørager Mejeri A/S Øllingegaard Mejeri Mejeriet Dybbækdal I/S Løgismose Mejeri A/S Sønderhaven Gårdmejeri Aabybro Mejeri Uhrenholt A/S Ullerslev Mejeri Søvind Mejeri SøMælk Jernved Mejeri Ingstrup Mejeri Lactosan A/S Cremo Ingredients (Kerry) Exporters AnnoFoods P.B. Foods Fayrefield FoodTec Kirkeby Cheese Exports A/S JBJ Ost Sonlac A/S Mille Dairy 2 Sept. 2013 The Danish Dairy Industry
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Structural development in Denmark 450 400 Average quota per farm 2013: 1,283 tons 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Average yield per cow 2012: 9,019 ton Milk collection 2012: 4,829 m kg Dairy cows in 2012: 579,000 Milk producers per 1st April 2013: 3,682 1995 = index 100 3 Sept. 2013 The Danish Dairy Industry
Dairy plants in Denmark 1935 2009 4 Sept. 2013 The Danish Dairy Industry Number of full-time employees: approx. 8,000
Structural dairy development 1955 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 Cooperatives 1,256 261 127 25 13 10 Private companies 224 87 60 38 29 19 Companies in total 1,480 348 187 63 42 29 Milk collection (mio. kg) 5,084 4,414 5,017 4,405 4,456 4,929 5 Sept. 2013 The Danish Dairy Industry
Monthly milk deliveries
Key production figures 2014 Ost = cheese, smør = butter, Mælkekonserves = powdered milk, konsummælk = liquid milk
Export of dairy products 1.000 ton 350 300 250 200 150 Butter 163 Cheese 243 261 234 273 291 114 Milk powder 207 200 192 153 149 100 50 71 49 40 57 42 37 0 Smør Ost Konserves 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 11 Juni 2014: Dansk mejeribrug
Sødmælk Letmælk Skummetmælk (inkl. minimælk) Kærnemælk Fløde og cremefraiche Syrnede produkter Kakaomælk Smør * (ekskl. bl.produkter) Ost* Consumption of dairy in 2013 Kg 60 53,9 50 40 30 20 10 13,2 21,1 2,9 10,2 18,1 6,8 1,8 16 0 *) estimeret 12 Juni 2014: Dansk mejeribrug
International trade..is of significant importance for Denmark: Milk production EU: 115,2 mill. tonnes (100%) Milk production DK: 4,5 mill. tonnes (3,95%) Export 15% Export to EU-countries 39% Consumption in DK 33% 33% 39% 28% Internal consumption 85% Export to countries outsiden the EU 28%
Main objectives No reintroduction of supply management Policy stability and predictability Supporting market liberalization with efficient safety net New markets must be explored current markets must be kept open Environmental and climate challenges Consumption and the image of milk
Average break even point Milk price Percentage of producers making a surplus Number of farmers making a surplus 2,13 DKK = 28,55 c/kg 2,99 DKK = 40 c/kg
Consumer reactions Extra payments from one retailer (REMA 1000 discounter) Lower prices from another discounter EFFECT: Shitstorm on FB
Agricultural debt structure in the EU
A few figures on efficiency Danish producers are the most efficient in Europe measured by value added per full time employee: More than 90.000, which is 3 times the EU average. In comparison Romanian milk producers have a value added of less than 5.000 per full time employee. Source: La Commission Européenne, DG Agri
Danish milk production and climate efficiency
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Antal bedrifter Organic Production and number of producers 900 600 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 500 400 300 200 100 0 Mælkeindvejning (1.000 tons) Milk price january 2016: Conventional: 237,5 = 30 cents Organic: 359,6 = 50 cents 20 Juni 2014: Dansk mejeribrug
La Fièrté et le Courage du Producteur Texte de la Pub: Nous pouvons vendre du fromage aux Francais et arbres de Noël aux Norvegiens. En suite.? Imprimé en petits lèttres: Le Danemark exporte plus de fromage vers la France qu il importe de la France 21 01.12.2009 / Organisation / afsender 12.04.2010 / Præsentationens titel / Navn Navnesen
Maintaining competiveness - a pre-condition for food security - EU should see potential on global market If NOT: - Exports down - Imports up EU world s biggest exporter of agricultural goods Consequences: - Lower prices for farmers - Lower production 22
Middle class growth rate in emerging markets will be the motor of increasing consumption. Middle class size Million, % Area 2009 2020F CAGR 09-20 Europe 664 703 0.5 North America 338 333-0.1 Asia Pacific 1 263 570 7.3 Central & South America 181 251 3.0 China 157 604 13.0 India 105 566 16.6 World 5.3 1 Excluding India and China; including Australasia 2 Excluding off trade sales Note: Middle class has been defined as those households with daily expenditures between USD 10 and USD 100 per person in purchasing power parity 23
Conclusions Worst crisis ever Bancruptcies on the increase numbers have doubled in 2015 (65) More structural adaptation to come Efficiency and competitiveness Research and innovation Optimism