Hvem er IFF. Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil Kristensen Medlemsbaseret non-profit forening Privat, neutral og uafhængig Tværfaglig tænketank
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2 Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil Kristensen Medlemsbaseret non-profit forening Privat, neutral og uafhængig Tværfaglig tænketank (økonomer, politologer, etnologer, kommunikationsfolk, sociologer, en astrofysiker og filosoffer) Ca. 20 medarbejdere City Future Clubs Hvem er IFF
3 Hvad laver vi? Prisvindende magasin Medlemsrapporter
4 CIFS kunder
5 At studere fremtiden er en del af den menneskelige natur Det er en afgørende faktor i vores politiske, sociale, kulturelle og økonomiske udvikling. Det er et grundlæggende aspekt i Hvem vi er? Og hvordan vi fungerer?
6 Forudsigelser er sjældent selvopfyldende I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing President George W. Bush July 2008
7 Kunderne bliver stadig mere krævende "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
8 Kan vi spørge dem? If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made a faster horse Henry Ford
9 Tidshorisont på år ikke nødvendigvis lineære Påvirker samfundet over en bred front Stor effekt man kan ikke gemme sig for en megatrend Implikationerne afhænger af, hvor man står internt afhængige Vi har en tendens til at overvurdere konsekvenserne på kort sigt Og undervurdere dem på længere sigt Megatrends er aggregerede enkeltbegivenheder, der trækker i samme retning og ændrer vores omverden Top level megatrend Sub-trend trends Individual observations
10 How companies use megatrends: Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey: - Capture market opportunities - Test risks - Spur innovation Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies - Basis for innovation process - Basis for scenario planning - Basis for Early Warning Systems - First step in quality assessment of business and strategy concepts (investment themes) Matthias Horx, Futurist: - Better decision making in strategic management - Quicker and more precise innovation generation
11 En god model til anvendelse af megatrends og identifikation af strategiske temaer Megatrends Society and values Technology developments Economic Environmental stresses Political developments Regional and national stakeholders (outside of industry) Contextual environment Media options Funding Competitors Political and legislative actors (relevance in industry) Suppliers Meeting of physical and digital infrastructure Influencers Players in value chain Consumer advocates Transactional environment Din Organisation Strategy Business development Innovation Trusler Muligheder 11
12 USA, fremskrivning fra 1950erne: America this is your future! 3D Color TV Wall-Panel Slide-back Roof Personal Helicopter & Roof Landing Area MovingStairway House-control Panel Glass Walls Dust-free Floors Menu Selector & Microwave Stove Giant-size Fruit Ultrasonic Laundry Electrical Heat Unit Phono-vision Receiver
13 Et eksempel fra IFF Vi må regne med et voksende antal mellemindkomstlande som konkurrenter, men også som markeder - hvis vi forstår at arbejde under deres politiske og kulturelle omstændigheder. Inden år 2005 må vi regne med, at Kina, og måske Indien, vil høre til disse lande. Kilde, IFF: Mod år 2005, 1980
14 Megatrends Demographic development Focus on health Network society Sustainability Knowledge society Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Individualization Economic growth Acceleration and complexity Technologic development
15 Threats and opportunities are in the cross section of trends e.g. Clean Energy Sustainability Original position Current position Globalization Technology Development Economic Growth Pictet Asset Management How to benefit from a megatrend 15
16 Megatrends Demographic development Focus on health Network society Sustainability Knowledge society Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Individualization Economic growth Acceleration and complexity Technologic development
17 Demografi
18 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 28, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
19 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 29, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
20 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 30, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
21 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 31, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
22 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 34, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
23 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 37, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
24 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 40, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
25 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 43, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
26 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 46, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
27 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 49, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
28 OECD More developed regions Low Variant Mænd Male Kvinder Female Median age 51, ,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Population (i (in tusental) 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000
29 Børn af tiden men forskellige platforme Baby Boomers Silent generation Generation x Generation Y Generation z Generation Alpha
30 Senior lines K-citymarket (Finland) testing slow-track checkout lane for the old and handicapped Slow moving belt, help with placing items on belt, small talking with the co-worker Lane is called: SLOW Grab a chair - sit down and enjoy the atmosphere
31 Afhængige Uafhængige Frie 1 Forældre Frie 2 Ældre Livsfaser: Fortid Age Age Fremtid
32 Better than expected The experience of life in retirement after 60, is almost everywhere better than expected whether comparing missing work, financial security or standards of living. The survey shows that far from being a time of misery, penury and frailty, life for most people in their 60s and 70s is characterised by good health, independence, control and a good quality of life. Source: HSCB Insurance, 2011: The Future of retirement
33 Omkari Panwar, 70 år
34 Vi er ikke alene
35 Hvad sker der, når vi kombinerer aldring med urbanisering Urban population by major geographical area (in per cent of total population) United Nations:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision
36 Danmarks vækst drevet af to metropoler 9 ud af 10 danskere bor i byerne Metropol regioner Byer kombineret med forstæder for at danne regioner. Korridorer De korridorer, der forbinder to større byer eller metropol regioner Befolkningsvækst fra 2012 til 2020 Kilde: Danmarks Statisk
37 Genkai Shuraku? Andel af befolkningen i 2012 og 2020, der er fyldt 65 år Et by-samfund rammer en kritisk grænse, når 50% af borgerne er over 65 år. Ultimativt forhindrer det samfundets praktiske funktionalitet byer vil være Genkai shuraku i 2020 Kilde: DS, 2012
38 Kan udviklingen bremses
39 Flyttemønster - skævvridningen fortsætter flytter fra een kommune til en anden I job: Beskæftiget, flytter til resten af landet; Ikke i job Beskæftiget, flytter til Kbh og Østjylland; % 15% 78% 22% Kilde: Arbejderbevægelsens Erhvervsråd 91% 9% 28% 72% I job Arbejdsløse, folke- og førtidspensionister København by 90,9 9,1 Østjylland 85,3 14,7 Fyn 77,7 22,3 Vest- og Sydsjælland Hele landet 83,3 16,7
40 Four major urbanization trends Importance of global most important contributors to global GDP Emergence of mega cities Cities with over 5 million inhabitants Mega regions Cities combining with suburbs to form regions (population over 10 million) Mega corridors The corridors connecting two major cities or mega regions EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen- Guangzhou in China (population 120 Million+)
41 Kan Skandinavien undgå at være udkants Europa? I dag: "Pentagonen": London, Hamburg, München, Milano og Paris. I 2040: Pentagonen trukket mod Øst: London, Paris, Hamburg og Warszawa. Øresundsregionens infrastruktur (jernbane og vej) til Europa allerede mættet. Det danske jernbanenet er under den standard, der findes i nabolande. Hvilke konsekvenser har åbningen af Berlin Brandenburg lufthavn for CPH Lufthavns fremtid? Source: EPSON 2006, IDA, 2009, NISA 2010
42 Feminization of society - the evolution of authority
43 Kvinderne er fremtidens vindere Kvindernes andel af kandidater voksede 2,5 gange hurtigere end mændenes Kvindernes andel af nordiske kandidater ISCED Ingeniør og naturvidenskab uforandret 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% ,00% Social science, business and law 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing Men Women 5. Engineering, manufacturing and construction Lineær ( 3. Social science, business and law) Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing) Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing) Kilde: Nordstat, 2011
44 She-conomy The average American woman is expected to earn more than the average American male by Women account for 85% of all consumer purchases : 91% of New Homes 66% PCs 92% Vacations 80% Healthcare 65% New Cars 89% Bank Accounts 93% Food 93 % OTC Pharmaceuticals Sources: She-conomy.com
45 Follow the money
46 Megatrends Demographic development Focus on health Network society Sustainability Knowledge society Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Individualization Economic growth Acceleration and complexity Technologic development
47 Acceleration udfordrer sikkerheden i markedspositioner
48 Accelerating pace of change Exponential rate of ICT development Technological progress - in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks - has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up. Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction CEO s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years) The rate of replacement of Fortune Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April
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53 Significance Customers, innovation, competitors the biggest threats to organizations Business Interruption Political Risk Customer Preference Innovation Technology Shifts Competitor Shifts Reputation Economic Conditions Regulation Terrorism Hazards Compliance Interest rates Credit Risk Foreign Exchange Likelihood Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)
54 Lad os kigge nærmere på competitor shifts Five largest mobile handset manufacturers worldwide based on quarterly sales figures (total units sold) Nokia 1. Samsung 2. Motorola 2. Nokia 3. Ericsson 3. Apple 4. Siemens 4. ZTE 5. Panasonic 5. LG Electronics Source: Gartner dataquest, 2010, 2012
55 Accelerating pace of change Exponential rate of ICT development Technological progress - in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks - has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up. Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction CEO s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years) The rate of replacement of Fortune Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April
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57 Øget acceleration og kompleksitet imødegås med ønsket om øget fleksibilitet/agilitet i værdikæden Eksempelvis på forpligtelser overfor medarbejdere: I OECD-landene har væksten i midlertidige jobs været gange så høj som væksten i faste ansættelser siden 90 erne I Frankrig har væksten været 66% mod 7% i faste jobs fra Tendensen er stærk og rammer alle virksomhedens områder Source: McKinsey, 2012
58 Vi går fra produkt til service Eje Lease Service Aktiver/Pant Cash flow
59 The Agility Factor - Adapting your business to change Whosoever desires constant success must change his conduct with the times. Niccolò Machiavelli An agile manager
60 The Agility Factor - Adapting your business to change Recent study of long-term performance shows an alternative point of view about business strategy. When the performance measure is profitabillity, a few large companies in every industry consistently outperform their peers over extended periods. Even in competitive and changing environments they maintain their performance edge. One factor they seem to have in common is agility. They adapt to business change more quickly and reliable than their competitors. Source: The Agility Factor ; strategy+busines; by Williams, Worley and Lawler
61 MR Hvordan påvirker det privatforbruget?
62 Adgang/service er vigtigere end ejerskab
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65 Robottaxien kommer når man kalder
66 Fordele ved leje- og deleordninger Større fleksibilitet og mobilitet Bedre service Stordriftsfordele Koordinering via internet Del af et fællesskab Fremfor alt: Mere bekvemmelighed
67 Sharing economy Source: The Economist (2013)
68 FREEDOM FROM OWNING
69 Megatrends Demographic development Focus on health Network society Sustainability Knowledge society Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Individualization Economic growth Acceleration and complexity Technologic development
70
71 High-frequency trading
72 Automatiseret trafik AnsaldoBreda Driverless Metro
73 Automatisering fjerner både faglærte og ufaglærte jobs Robots Hvilke behov vil der være for kirurger og taxa/buschauffør?
74 Automated decision making og big data
75 The AI [Artificial Intelligence] revolution is doing to white collar jobs what robotics did to blue collar jobs Last decade job growth in US driven by complex interaction jobs ( ) Jobs lost Jobs created Production Transactions Interactions Next wave of automation will impact these once protected markets Source: McKinsey (2012)
76 Polarization of the labor market Employees have been doing more with less and for less for over half a decade, and that reality doesn t seem likely to change anytime soon. Towers Watson, Global Workforce Study, 2012 In a global economy, American businesses and workers can t earn a premium if they don t have greater productivity than their counterparts in other nations. Eric Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee, 2013
77 Udviklingen er i fuld gang 19. november november november 2013
78 Talent is everything Source: PwC (2011)
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80 The challenge is potentially greater than we realize? Investments in analytics can be useless, even harmful, unless employees can incorporate that data into complex decision making 38% of employees, and 50% of senior managers, fall into [the data savvy group]. Source: IFTF, 2012, CIFS, ISS, 2011, and HBR, 2012
81 The Future of work Flexible contracts Flexible hours Flexible location Flexible tasks Outsourcing Use of agency workers Temporary/fixed term contracts Casual labour/ Flexible hours or flexitime schemes Part-time working Jobshare Compressed working weeks Annualised hours Zero hours Working on the move Working from home Working from touchdown centres/telecentres/ satellite offices (Variously described as location independent working, teleworking, telecommuting, home working, remote working, anywhere/anytime working) Multi-skilling Removal of job demarcations Self-supporting executives Portfolio working IT-supported customer services
82 The future of work Improve collaboration Increase innovative outputs Cut cost Brand organization Attract talents Cope with complexities of workforce Do more work with fewer people
83 Education: From just in case to just in time
84 Accelerated learning
85 Education: From push to pull - life long learning
86 Selfmonitoring : Khan Academy
87 Nye færdigheder Automatisering og digitalisering stiller nye krav til kompetencer Sense-making Tværfaglighed Adaptiv tænkning Social intelligens Nye mediefærdigheder Tværkulturelle kompetencer Matematiske færdigheder og evner til at behandle data Evnen til at sige Nej Source: IFTF, 2012
88 Implikationer for fremtidens arbejdsliv Flere karrierer i løbet af et liv Det er vigtigt at reducere kompleksitet Global konkurrence om jobbene Fleksibilitet er en vigtig del af vores liv At man kan måle værdien af det, jeg bidrager med Sources: Rand 2004: BCA 2006; Towers Watson 2010; PwC 2009; ABF 2009; PwC 2008;BCG/IBSA 2006; ABF 2009; Handy 2008; CIFS, 2009; CIFS 2011; CIFS 2012
89 Hierarkier udfordres af netværk 1900 er Non-social interaktion Værdi i transaktioner Businessstabilitet Veldefinerede industrier og hierarkier Envejsmarkeder Begrænset information Overskud af ressourcer Institutioner Drivkræfter Ambient kommunikation Globale informationsstrømme Social computing Markedets diskontinuitet 2000 er Gennemgribende social interaktion Værdi i forhold Business i flux Industritransformation Tovejsmarkeder Informations overflod Ressourcemæssige begrænsninger Fællesskaber KONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010
90 Netværker udfordrer hierarkier drevet af netværkssamfundet og demokratisering
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92 CASE: ISS
93 Technology enables collaboration & 1. Ubiquitous computing Networked consumer electronics First wave Second wave Networked industries Networked everything Networked society change Third wave 3. Building Information modelling 2. Cloud computing Engineers Contractors Space Management 4. BIG data Architects Facility & End-User Data Facility Maintenance Real Estate Furniture dealers Partner s FM solution network Source: Ericsson, 2011, ISS 2020 Vision: NWOW, 2013, FMJ, 2013, Buildpedia, 2013, CKR Interactive, 2014
94 Sustainability remains a key challenge for Buildings represent 20 percent of energy consumption Surveyed FM experts expect more regulations concerning sustainability Improving building performance is moving towards changing tenet behavior Change employee behavior the future What kind of regulations will influence the office design the most towards 2020? Location of buildings compared to where employee live now part of LEED certification Source: ISS 2020 Vision: NWOW, 2013 In buildings with multiple organizations as tenants, FM providers are moving towards collaborative solutions
95 For FM, it is important to be prepared to; Apple Curpertino (walkability score: 49) and Facebook s HQ Amazon s Seattle HQ (Walkability score 98, Transportation score 90) Source: Atlantic, 2013
96 Kompleksiteten stiger Walkscore.com
97 Workplace will become an experience, not a facility Focus will be to leverage the core organizations ability to: Maximize utilization of assets Reduce risk and exposures Increase flexibility Create attractive workplaces to leverage strategy and change the organizational culture 97
98 Megatrends Demographic development Focus on health Network society Sustainability Knowledge society Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Individualization Economic growth Acceleration and complexity Technologic development
99 Den økonomiske vækst vil fortsætte, men Europa er udfordret 3 GDP Growth Rate, as a % of previous Quarter 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0-0,5 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Germany United States European Union (27 countries) OECD - Total Brazil China India Source: OECD StatExtracts, data extracted dec 3, 2012
100 Middle class now and in 2030 Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030 Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum
101 The transatlantic economy VS the rest of the world (% of total GDP based on purchasing-power-parity)
102 Personal consumption in developing Europe VS China (billions of USD)
103 Output of Europe s periphery VS China/India (trillions of USD) Europe s periphery: Developing Europe, Middle East, North Africa and Sub- Saharan Africa
104 3 tendenser udfordrer Kina Aldring Institutionel kvalitet Reshoring? Stagnation Ustabilitet
105 Aldring: fra 1:1 til 1:4
106 Konsekvenser af aldring I dag Fremover Ældreomsorg i familien Stigende arbejdsstyrke bag vækst Underskud i pensionsforpligtigelsen på 2,9 billioner US$ i 2012 Opbygning af moderne ældresektor Faldende arbejdsstyrke fra 2012 og frem Underskud i pensionsforpligtigelsen på 10,9 billioner US$ i 2033 (38,7% af bnp)
107 Institutionel kvalitet bliver en af flere barrierer for Kina og Indien m. fl. Source: Fatás&Mihov HBR Based on: Governance Matters VII: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators Daniel Kaufmann Aart Kraay Massimo Mastruzzi The World Bank Development Research GroupJune 2008
108 The American multinational approach to emerging markets (EM) GLOBALIZATION/GLOCALIZATION REVERSE INNOVATION Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 US products defeatured, made in US for EM US product defeatured, made in EM for Export/EM Local design, made in EM for EM Local design, made in EM for the world Source: Govindarajan, V. (2009)
109 Reshoring Holy Grail - a 5.6-ounce running shoe called the Flyknit, made from synthetic yarn ingeniously woven together by a knitting machine.
110 What IF? Anno 20xx
111 Thank you! Claus Kjeldsen
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