VELKOMMEN TIL ETN-SEMINAR Copyright 2010, The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Contacts: Sylvester Andersen, Sales Director, +45 33770350 / sylvester.andersen@nasdaqomx.com København, Movember 2012
PROGRAM FOR ETN-SEMINAR Tid Emne 17.00 17.10 Velkomst og introduktion (Sylvester Andersen, NASDAQ OMX - Fondsbørsen). 17.10 17.45 Forventninger til aktie og råvaremarkedet for 2013. Niels From, Nordea, og Michelle Nørgaard, Handelsbanken 17.45 18.45 Grundlæggende introduktion til Exchange Traded Notes/certifikater. Peter Kijne, Nordea, og Esben Kampegaard, Handelsbanken 18.45 19.15 Sådan handler du Exchange Traded Notes. Espen Molin, Nordea 19.15 20.00 Mingle, mad & drikke 2
NASDAQ OMX STOLTE AF AT KUNNE PRÆSENTERE ETP PÅ SIN MARKEDSPLADS Stor efterspørgsel efter passivt forvaltede foreninger og fonde: Danske kunder vil have en billig mulighed for bred eksponering i forskellige index, råvarer og enkeltaktier (og alternativ til aktivt forvaltede investeringsforeninger). Papirer skal være relevante for danske investorer og denomineres i danske kroner og så skal det være velrenommerede udstedere. Både bull og bear samt med og uden gearing og skal kunne handles som en aktie. http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/etp/etn/ 3
ETP GLOBALT SET 4
DANSKE ETN ER VISER OPADGÅENDE FORMKURVE (167% STIGNING I ÅR) 5
I lavt gear Investing under New Normal Niels From, Head of Research Denmark November 2012
Seneste udvikling: Goldilocks drevet af centralbanker Trods mange negative overskrifter i medierne har solen skinnet på investorerne, som er blevet belønnet på både gynger og karruseller. Både aktier og obligationer har givet flotte afkast år til dato Danske aktier er endnu engang helt i top, mens Japan og Latinamerika er de klare bundskrabere På obligationssiden har kreditobligationerne, især de mest risikofyldte, givet markant bedre afkast end danske obligationer Hvorfor? Centralbankerne er trådt i karakter og gjort ord til handling. ECB lancerede i starten af september et nyt program til løsning af gældskrise og kort efter kom Fed på banen med QE3. Nye tal fra Kina viser positive tegn og den amerikanske økonomi viser bedre end frygtet væksttal. Underliggende vokser den globale økonomi stadig, men fremgangen er fortsat svag Udviklingen i aktier, råvarer, valutaer og obligationer Ændring siden År-til-dato - 3 m - 12 m Aktier* MSC I World 10% -3% 21% USA S&P500 12% -4% 24% UK FTSE 100 8% -2% 19% EUROSTOXX50 10% 3% 19% Tyskland DAX 23% 3% 31% Danmark OMXC 20 25% 0% 34% Sverige OMXS30 12% -3% 26% MSCI EM 9% -1% 14% Japan NIKKEI 5% -4% 11% Kina SHANGHAI -6% -5% -10% Råvarer** Brent blend olie -12% -10% -11% Guld 10% 6% 2% CRB Indeks -3% -3% -4% Valutaer* USD 0.9% -2.6% 5.1% GBP 3.5% -2.3% 7.1% C HF 1.3% -0.2% 2.7% SEK 4.0% -3.3% 7.4% NOK 6.1% 0.4% 6.8% Renter (ændring i bp)* 3M C ibor -71-2 -97 2Y DKK swap -52 2-88 10Y DKK swap -41-2 -74 Risk Perception*** Nordea Risk Perception Indeks -17% -9% -6% * I DKK Opdateret: 22/11/2012 ** I USD Kilde: Bloomberg, Analytics *** Fald = højere risikoappetit; Stigning = højere risikoaversion 7
Nordea Risk Perception Index: Laveste niveau i 5 år Risikoaversionen nedbragt til ultra-lave niveauer på tværs af aktivklasser Usædvanlig lempelig pengepolitik og signaler om højt beredskab Større handlekraft blandt Europas politikere Voksende indtjening blandt Europas og USA s største erhvervsvirksomheder Tilvænning til svage nøgletal der har stabiliseret sig Krisestyring giver form for tro på forudsigelighed på finansielle markeder 8
Great Moderation erstattet af New Normal hvad betyder det for mig? St. dev. 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11 GDP CPI (rhs) Inverteret volatilitets bobbel førte over i finanskrisen St. dev. 3.5 Globalisering (handelsstrømme, likviditet), centralbankpolitikker (inflationsmålsætning) og finansiel innovation pressede volatilitet ud af makroøkonomien og de finansielle markeder før krisen Krisen mindede markederne om, at der er en kredit- og likviditetsrisiko man kan ikke leve over evne i længden New Normal : Forvent lavere vækst og permanent højere volatilitet fremadrettet årsager til fravær af volatilitet før krisen er vendt på hovedet 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 9
Udfordringer forude Trods tydelige fremskridt i økonomierne er der stadig bump på vejen forude. Hver af de tre store regioner, USA, Europa og Kina, har deres egne udfordringer USA: Finanspolitisk mur Den amerikanske økonomi rammer recession, hvis politikerne ikke træffer de rigtige beslutninger efter valget Kina og andre Emerging markets: vækstbilledet Den økonomiske vækst i emerging markets har været anstrengt på det seneste. Der er spæde tegn på bedring, men vi skal have konfirmeret billedet for at få bekræftet fremgangen. Europa: Gældskrisen Seneste udvikling har været i den rigtige retning, men usikkerhed omkring Grækenland og ECB i venteposition i forhold til om Spanien vil bede om hjælp fastholder Europa i et vakuum 10
Aktieregioner November 2012 USA Amerikanske aktier har klaret sig godt relativt til globale, men har tabt pusten den seneste måned Økonomien er i bedring trukket af bolig- og arbejdsmarkedet. Det private forbrug skal fremadrettet trække væksten da der venter store stramninger i budgettet 2013 Anbefalet vægt: 35% Neutralvægt: 35% Danmark Analytikernes forventninger er blandt de højeste globalt set med 30% for 2012 og 22% for 2013 Forventningerne skyldes er i høj grad banksektoren, hvor indtjeningen skal genrejses efter finanskrisen. Der er også høje forventninger til de mere defensive aktier, men her er usikkerheden mindre Anbefalet vægt: 25% Neutralvægt: 25% Prisfastsættelse er i den høje ende og der er udsigten til nedjustering af indtjeningsestimaterne i tråd med globale aktier Prisfastsættelsen er anstrengt og det vil give modvind fremadrettet Europa Efter en svag start på året er europæiske aktier begyndt at klare sig bedre end globale. Årsager er de seneste tiltag fra ECB der giver håb om en løsning af gældskrisen i de sydeuropæiske lande Indtjeningen har været vigende, men de finansielle forhold er blevet markant forbedret og det skaber en smule optimisme for væksten fremadrettet Prisfastsættelsen af europæiske aktier er attraktiv både absolut, men også relativt til især amerikanske og danske aktier Anbefalet vægt: 25% Neutralvægt: 20% Fjernøsten/Emerging Markets Den vigende vækst skaber usikkerhed om indtjeningsudsigterne, men modsvares i nogen grad af bedring i USA samt Kina og mere reflation fra de store centralbanker Inflationen er faldet i de fleste lande, men yderligere pengepolitiske lempelser begrænses af landespecifikke inflationsudfordringer Anbefalet vægt: 15% Neutralvægt: 15% Japan Eksporten har vist tegn på bedring, men den stærke yen trækker ned og spændingerne i forhold til Kina (Japans største eksportmarked) er dyrt for eksportvirksomhederne Prisfastsættelsen er attraktiv og målt på kurs/indre værdi handler de japanske aktier tæt på bunden fra 2009. En bedring i egenkapitals forrentningen, kan være nøglen til en stigning i prisfastsættelsen Mere reflation fra BoJ kan sende markedet op Anbefalet vægt: 0% Neutralvægt: 5% investorerne er massivt overvægtet i regionen og EM ventes at handle på linje med globale aktier den kommende tid = Overvægt = Neutral = Undervægt Afkastforventninger i DKK for de kommende 12 måneder: 5-10%
Tak! Niels From, Head of Research Denmark niels.from@nordea.com, +45 3333 3259 Nordea Markets er en fælles betegnelse for afdelingerne Markets i Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc og Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. Oplysningerne i dette materiale er udelukkende ment som generel information og henvender sig alene til de modtagere, som materialet er rettet mod. Vurderinger samt øvrige oplysninger i materialet er gældende pr. udgivelsesdatoen og kan ændres uden varsel. Dette er ikke en udtømmende beskrivelse af det omtalte produkt eller de dermed forbundne risici, og der gives ingen garanti for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige eller komplette. Materialet er gennemgået omhyggeligt, og vurderingerne er foretaget efter vores bedste skøn. Oplysningerne i dette materiale er ikke investeringsrådgivning og skal ej heller ses som et tilbud om eller en opfordring til køb eller salg af finansielle instrumenter. Oplysningerne heri tager ikke højde for bestemte modtageres investeringsformål, finansielle situation eller behov. Det tilrådes altid at indhente relevant og konkret professionel rådgivning, inden der træffes investerings- eller kreditbeslutninger. Det bemærkes, at historiske afkast ikke er nogen garanti for fremtidige afkast. Nordea Markets er ikke rådgiver for så vidt angår juridiske, skattemæssige, regnskabsmæssige eller lovgivningsmæssige forhold. Dette dokument må ikke gengives, distribueres eller offentliggøres uden forudgående skriftligt tilsagn fra Nordea Markets.
ETN seminar Handelsbankens forventninger til råvaremarkedet Aktieanalytiker Michelle Nørgaard
Hvorfor er råvarer en god alternativ investering? God måde at sprede ens risiko Råvarer er ikke ligeså konjunkturfølsomme som aktier Råvarer har en lav korrelation i forhold til aktier og obligationer Råvarer er en god inflationssikring
Hvad er råvarer og hvad driver dem? EM, Kina Industrimetaller Mineproduktion USA/Kina Energi Råvarer OPEC/Saudi Ædelmetaller Fødevarer Europæiske gældskrise/fed Befolkning, indkomst & oliepris Høst
Plads til flere råvarestigninger CRB råvareindeks Trods en pæn udvikling i råvarepriserne hen over sommeren så vurderer vi, at der er plads til yderligere stigninger i både 2012 og 2013, da: Bedring i den globale økonomi vil kunne drive råvarepriserne højere Kinesisk økonomi tilbage på vækstsporet vil gavne råvarerne Centralbankernes lempelige pengepolitik giver råvarer gunstige vilkår (QE3) Risikofaktorerne er dog til stede: Den europæiske gældskrise Fiscal Cliff Svag kinesisk vækst
Alternative placeringsmuligheder er blevet mindre attraktive
Olieprisen har toppet, men ventes at blive på et højt niveau
Guldprisen kan stige yderligere grundet økonomisk stimulans QE1 QE2 LTRO 1 +2 QE3 QE2 (Jackson Hole)
Sommerens tørke har drevet priserne på fødevarer op
Opsummering Der er plads til flere stigninger i råvarepriserne grundet; Tegn på økonomisk fremgang i Kina Centralbankernes lempelige pengepolitik Alternative placeringsmuligheder er blevet mindre attraktive Råvarer generelt: Positivt Ædelmetaller: Positivt Industrimetaller: Positivt Energi: Neutralt Fødevarer: Negativt
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Bull & Bear ETN Seminar. København 26.11.2012 Esben Bøgeholdt Kæmpegaard.
Definition af en ETN ETN = Exchange Traded Note Og på dansk: En børsnoteret usikret fordring mod udstederbanken Typisk indekseret i forhold til et underliggende aktiv Passivt forvaltet Kan være med eller uden gearing
Certifikatets kortnavn BULL OLIE X2 H BULL angiver at det er et bullcertifikat OLIE angiver at certifikatet er koblet til prisen på olie X2 angiver produktets gearing H angiver at certifikatet er udstedt af Handelsbanken
Fakta om Handelsbankens Bull & Bear Godt allokeringsalternativ spredning af din portefølje Nem og billig eksponering mod råvarer. Gearingselement Giver mulighed for at tjene på både stigninger og fald Giver mulighed for hedging/risikoafdækning Bredt produktsortiment. Der udvides kontinuerligt Børsnoterede og handles på samme måde som almindelige aktier. Du bestemmer selv, hvor lang tid du ønsker at beholde dine Bull- eller Bear-certifikater Stor likviditet Høj kvalitet på underliggende aktiver
Hvad er Bull & Bear? Bull Bear Du tror på et stigende marked, og har du ret, får du et positivt afkast, som kan være dobbelt så stort som den reelle stigning (tre gange på visse certifikater). Du tror på et faldende marked, og har du ret, får du et positivt afkast, som kan være dobbelt så stort, som det reelle fald (tre gange på visse certifikater).
Hvordan fungerer Bull & Bear? + 10 % + 6 % + 5 % - 3 %
Eksempler på Bull & Bear udstedelser Råvarer Aktier og aktieindeks Valuta OMXC20 TM OMXS30 TM
Bull & Bear - Råvarer udstedt af Handelsbanken Energi Metaller Fødevare Olie Guld Sølv Hvede Svinekød Korn Elektricitet Brændstof Emissions licenser Kobber Aluminium Zink Nikkel Soya Sukker Kaffe Kakao Appelsin juice OBS for valuta effekt og kontrakttype.
Bull & Bear - aktier og aktieindeks udstedt af Handelsbanken Medicinal Industri OMXC20 TM FMCG Transport Bank DAX (Tyskland) Pulp og Papir Tekstil Telecom OBX (Norge)
Hvordan virker Bull? Prisen på Olie BULL Bull Certifikat Kurs Daglig % Udvikling BULL olie x2h Dag 1 $100 Kr. 50,00 Daglig% Udvikling Dag 2 $103 3,00% Kr. 53,00 6,00% Dag 3 $105 1,94% Kr. 55,06 3,88% Dag 4 $106 0,95% Kr. 56,10 1,90% Dag 5 $108 1,89% Kr. 58,22 3,77% Dag 6 $110 1,85% Kr. 60,37 3,70% $130 $125 $120 $115 $110 $105 $100 $95 $90 Dag 1 Dag 2 Dag 3 Dag 4 Dag 5 Dag 6 Prisen på Olie BULL olie x2h kr 65,00 kr 60,00 kr 55,00 kr 50,00 kr 45,00 % Udvikling 10,00% 20,75% Administrationsomkostninger er indeholdt, men tager ikke højde for kurtage
Hvordan virker Bear? Prisen på Olie BEAR Bear Certifikat Kurs Daglig % Udvikling BEAR Olie x2h Dag 1 $100 Kr. 50,00 Daglig % Udvikling Dag 2 $95-5,00% Kr. 55,00 10,00% Dag 3 $100 5,26% Kr. 49,21-10,53% Dag 4 $95-5,00% Kr. 54,13 10,00% Dag 5 $100 5,26% Kr. 48,43-10,53% $115 $110 $105 $100 $95 $90 Dag 1 Dag 2 Dag 3 Dag 4 Dag 5 Dag 6 kr 57,00 kr 55,00 kr 53,00 kr 51,00 kr 49,00 kr 47,00 kr 45,00 Dag 6 $98-2,00% Kr. 50,37 4,00% Prisen på Olie BULL olie x2h %Udvikling -2,00% 0,73% Administrationsomkostninger er indeholdt, men tager ikke højde for kurtage
Omkostninger ved Bull og Bear Administrationsomkostninger: 0,6% p.a. på aktier og aktie index med 2 x gearing 0,9% p.a. på råvarer med 2 x gearing 1,2% p.a. på råvarer med 3 x gearing Finansieringsomkostninger: 1 dages rente +0,25% p.a. marginal. Omkostningerne fragår dagligt certifikatets værdi. Svarende til 0,00167 kr. pr. dag for et certifikat med 1,2% i administrationsomkostning.
Riscici ved Handelsbankens Bull & Bear Modpartsrisiko på udstederbanken Gearingselementet på dagsbasis (Volatilitet) Tvangsindløsning ved udsving på 50% inden for dagen (33,33% for 3 gearede udstedelser) Valutaeffekt
Skattemæssig behandling af Bull & Bear Bull & Bear certifikater er betragtet som finansielle kontrakter Beskattes som kapitalindkomst efter lagerprincippet. Tab kan fremføres og modregnes i fremtidige gevinster Er der tale om Bull & Bear certifikater baseret på aktier. Kan evt overskydende tab modregnes i aktiegevinster af børsnoterede aktier.
Bull & Bear i pensioner Det er pt. ikke muligt at handle Bull & Bear i pensioner grundet de danske pensionsregler Der foregår netop nu en høring om muligheden for at åbne for dette
Eksempel på Trading Case Køb BULL Hvede (BULL HVED X2H) Vi vurderer, at hvedeprisen i Europa skal stige yderligere fra de nuværende niveauer som følge af en øget risiko for, at hvedehøsten i især Rusland (et af de største hvedeproducerende lande) bliver svag. Årsagen til dette skyldes, at de sydlige dele af Rusland på nuværende tidspunkt er hårdt ramt af tørke og hvis der ikke snart kommer regn, så vil det medføre en dårlig høst, hvilket vil resultere i et lavt udbud af hvede. Derfor vurderer vi, at den øgede risiko for en kommende dårlig høst vil være til gavn for hvedeprisen på den korte bane. Køb BULL Hvede Indgangskurs: 77,37 ( 22. juni 2012) Stop-profit: 85,10 Stop-loss: 69,63
Eksempel på Trading Case Vi lukker trading case: BULL Hvede (BULL Hved X2H) Hvedeprisen er steget kraftigt på det seneste som følge af spekulationer om, at hvedehøsten i Rusland bliver svag, da de sydlige dele af Rusland på nuværende tidspunkt er hårdt ramt af tørke. Vi tager derfor profit hjem. Indgangskurs: 77,37 Stop-profit: 85,78 (26. juni 2012) Afkast: 10,87%
Eksempel på Trading Case Køb BULL NOVO (BULL NOVO X2H) Novo aktien falder i dag efter oplysningen om, at de amerikanske lægemiddelmyndigheder FDA skal tage stilling til eventuelle bivirkninger i forhold til kardiovaskulære (hjerte-kar) risici ved to af Novo Nordisks insulinlægemidler Tresiba og Ryzodeg inden at produkterne kan godkendes til salg på det amerikanske marked. Årsagen til dette skyldes, at flere kliniske studier netop har påvist, at der kan være en øget risiko for hjertekarbivirkninger ved brugen af Tresiba og Ryzodeg i forhold til andre sammenlignelige produkter. Derfor er investorerne nervøse for, at de amerikanske lægemiddelmyndigheder vil udskyde eller i værste fald afvise nogen af registeringsansøgningerne på Novo Nordisks produkter (FDA træffer endelig beslutning den 8. november 2012). Vi vurderer at den negative børsreaktion er en overreaktion og at Novo aktien igen vil begynde at stige til nye rekordniveauer når frygten for en udskydelse har lagt sig. Køb Bull Novo Indgangskurs: 140,15 (26. okt.) Stop-profit: 154,16 Stop-loss: 126,13
Eksempel på Trading Case Vi lukker trading case: BULL NOVO (BULL NOVO X2H) Novo aktien er faldet kraftigt de seneste par dage som følge af øget nervøsitet forud for mødet i de amerikanske lægemiddelmyndigheder FDA, hvor der blandt andet skal tages stilling til eventuelle bivirkninger i forhold til kar-diovaskulære (hjerte-kar) risici ved to af Novo Nordisks insulinlægemidler Tresiba og Ryzodeg inden, at produkterne kan godkendes til salg på det amerikanske marked. Vi har derfor ramt vores Stop Loss niveau og lukker derfor casen. Vi tager derfor tabet. Indgangskurs: 140,15 Stop-profit: 126,13 (6. Nov.) Afkast: -10%
www.handelsbanken.dk/bullbear Alt hvad du behøver at vide om Bull & Bear samlet på et website.
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