System Management Principles Statement Compliance report for February 214 and March 214 Summary of balancing actions and breaches for February 214 March 214 Performance compared to last year
Summary Report Feb-14 Mar-14 Total Number of Buy Actions 12 8 Total Number of Sell Actions 11 8 Total 23 16 Feb-14 Mar-14 Number of Material Breaches Number of Non-Material Breaches Mar-14 Mar-13 Number of Balancing Actions (Calendar year to date) 61 127 Number of Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) Number of Non-Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) 2
Operational Overview
National Composite Weather October 213 to April 214 vs. Historical Range 15 Month-ahead ensemble weather 1 Degrees CWV 5-5 1/1/213 1/11/213 1/12/213 1/1/214 1/2/214 1/3/214 1/4/214 Minimum to seasonal normal Maximum to seasonal normal Actual CWV Ensemble forecasts Mean Ensemble 4
Demands
Gas Demand Breakdown 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 Vs Previous Year 45 4 Gas Demand Breakdown 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 vs Previous Year 35 3 25 mcm 2 15 1 5 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 NDM DM [Exc Interconnectors] Total Interconnector Export Storage Injection Previous Years Actual Demand 6
Gas Demand Statistics 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 45 Gas Demand Statistics 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Winter Average Winter Max to date Winter Min to date 7
Demand Variance from SND 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 6 Demand Variance from SND 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 4 2 mcm -2-4 -6-8 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 Demand / SND Variance 8
Gas Demand Vs SND / Cold / Warm 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 5 45 Gas Demand Breakdown 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 vs Previous Year 4 35 3 mcm 25 2 15 1 5 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 Total Demand SND Cold Warm 9
LDZ Actual Demand Vs LDZ SND 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 25 LDZ Demand Actual Vs LDZ SND 2 15 mcm 1 5 Winter average [Oct to Mar] Oct-Nov average Dec-Feb average LDZ Actual LDZ SND 1
LDZ Demand / LDZ SND Variance 1st October 213 to 31 st March 214 8 6 LDZ Demand / LDZ SND Variance 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 4 2 mcm -2-4 -6-8 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 Demand / SND Variance 11
Power Generation October 213 to March 214 8 Gas Consumption for Power Generation 7 6 5 mcm/d 4 3 2 1 1/1/13 1/11/13 1/12/13 1/1/14 1/2/14 1/3/14 Actual High Power Base Case Previous Year 12
Supplies
Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 6 55 Gas Supply Breakdown 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 vs Previous Year 5 45 4 35 mcm 3 25 2 15 1 5 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 Gas Day UKCS Norway BBL IUK LRS MRS SRS LNG Previous Year Supply 14
Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 6 55 NSS [Non-Storage Supply] 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Winter Average Winter Max to date Margins Notice Assumptions Capacity UKCS Norway LNG BBL IUK 15
Gas Supply Breakdown IUK 1 st October 213 to 24 th March 214 IUK Flows vs. NBP & ZEE price differential 8 1 6 + IMPORT TO NBP 8 4 6 mcm/d 2-2 4 2-2 pp/th differential (NBP vs. Zee) -4-4 -6-6 -8 - EXPORT TO ZEE -8 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14-1 IUK IUK Import Capacity IUK Export Capacity IUK Price Differential 16
Gas Supply Breakdown LNG 1st October 213 to 31 st March 214 8 7 LNG Terminal Flows 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 6 5 mcm 4 3 2 1 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 South Hook Isle of Grain Dragon Previous Year LNG 17
Gas Supply Breakdown Norway 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 14 Norway Flows 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 12 1 8 mcm 6 4 2 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 Langeled Vesterled [estimated] Previous Year Norway 18
Gas Supply Breakdown Storage 1 st October 213 to 31 st March 214 1 8 Storage Withdrawal Vs Injection 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 6 4 Mcm 2-2 -4-6 -8 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 Withdrawal Injection 19
Storage Stocks UK [LRS] 1 st Oct 213 to 31 st March 214 Vs Previous Years 45. 4. LRS Stocks 1st Oct 213 to 31st Mar 214 Vs Previous Years 35. 3. twh 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. 1-Oct-13 1-Dec-13 1-Feb-14 1-Apr-14 1-Jun-14 1-Aug-14 LRS 212/213 LRS 213/214 2
Storage Stocks UK [MRS] 1 st Oct 213 to 31 st March 214 Vs Previous Years 14 12 MRS Stocks 1st Oct 213 to 31st Mar 214 Vs Previous Years 1 8 twh 6 4 2 1-Oct-13 1-Dec-13 1-Feb-14 1-Apr-14 1-Jun-14 1-Aug-14 MRS 212/213 MRS 213/214 21
Storage Stocks UK [SRS] 1 st Oct 213 to 31 st March 214 Vs Previous Years.4.35 SRS Stocks 1st Oct 213 to 31st March 214 Vs Previous Years.3.25 twh.2.15.1.5 1-Oct-13 1-Dec-13 1-Feb-14 1-Apr-14 1-Jun-14 1-Aug-14 SRS 212/213 SRS 213/214 22
Storage Stocks - EU Current Position Storage Data for Thursday 3-4-214 Note: AGSI+ are no longer publishing aggregated data on hub level. 23
Storage Stocks - EU From 1 st Oct 213 to 31 st March 214 Vs Previous Years 1 9 Combined EU Storage Stocks [% Full] 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 21/211 211/212 212/213 213/214 24
UK Gas Prices 1 st Jan 213 to 31 st March 214 Vs Previous Years 11. 1. System Prices 1st April 213 to 31st March 214 Vs Previous Years 9. 8. p/ptherm 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13 1-Dec-13 1-Jan-14 1-Feb-14 1-Mar-14 SAP SMPB SMPS Previous Year SAP 25
What Operational Issues Affected Users? 26
Transporter Actions and Neutrality Energy Balancing Capacity
Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM March 213 to March 214 Vs Previous Year 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells March 213 to March 214 Vs Previous Year 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Gwh -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 -7 1-Mar-13 1-May-13 1-Jul-13 1-Sep-13 1-Nov-13 1-Jan-14 1-Mar-14-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Buy 213/14 Buy Prev Year Sell 213/14 Sell Prev Year 28
Days of Default SMP Prices [SMPB] From April 213 to March 214 1 SMPB Calculation Summary April 213 to March 214 9 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Def ault Marginal] 29
Days of Default SMP Prices [SMPS] From April 213 to March 214 1 SMPS Calculation Summary April 213 to March 214 9 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Def ault Marginal] 3
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Jan - Feb 214 Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit [Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM] - 1st Jan 214 to 28th Feb 214 45,, 4,, 35,, 3,, 12,535,896 Net Credit 2,646,612 7,283,711 25,, 696,375 2,, 15,, 1,, 25,241,12 28,542,958 5,, Credits Debits OCM Imbalance Payment OCM Payment 31
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Jan - Feb 214 OCM Payments / Charges Graph 1st Jan 214 to 28th Feb 214 Payment [TTB] Charge [TTS] 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, -5, -1,, -1,5, -2,, -2,5, 1/1/214 8/1/214 15/1/214 22/1/214 29/1/214 5/2/214 12/2/214 19/2/214 26/2/214 Day 32
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Jan - Feb 214 Imbalance Payments / Charges Graph 1st Jan 214 to 28th Feb 214 Payment [DCS] Charge [DCT] 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, -5, -1,, -1,5, -2,, -2,5, 1/1/214 8/1/214 15/1/214 22/1/214 29/1/214 5/2/214 12/2/214 19/2/214 26/2/214 Day 33
Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Jan - Feb 214 Scheduling Charges Graph 1st Jan 214 to 28th Feb 214 Exit Charge [EXS] Entry Charge [ESC] Exit Charge [DXS] 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1/1/214 8/1/214 15/1/214 22/1/214 29/1/214 5/2/214 12/2/214 19/2/214 26/2/214 Day 34
Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue From 1 st April 213 to 28 th February 214 Revenue/Costs WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue - 514,57 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue - 121,77 Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) - 726,665 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges Net Revenue - 1,362,312 35
Capacity Neutrality Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI From 1 st April 213 to 28 th February 214 Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue [WDDSEC + DAI] 1st April 213 to 28th Feb 214 St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other -1,. -3,. -5,. -7,. -9,. -11,. -13,. -15,. -17,. -19,. -21,. -23,. -25,. - 191,844-22,46-14,674-219,313-66,266 Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue [WDDSEC + DAI] 36
Capacity Neutrality Revenues from Entry Cap Overruns and Non-Obligated Sales, and Locational Sells and PRI Charges. Totals From 1 st April 213 to 28 th February 214 Month Entry Cap Overrun Revenue Non-obligated sales revenue (entry) Month Locational Sells and PRI charges revenue Apr-13-4,972-175 Apr-13 May-13-7,376 - May-13 Jun-13-33,996 - Jun-13 Jul-13-16,257 - Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14-6,8-11,538-5,355-22,2-3,364-1,743-8,394 - - - - 28,755-27,943-28,665-336,659-34,469 - Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 - Total - 121,77 (FY13-14) - 726,665 (FY13-14) Total (FY13/14) 37