System Management Principles Statement. Compliance report Summary of balancing actions and breaches Performance compared to last year
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1 System Management Principles Statement Compliance report Summary of balancing actions and breaches Performance compared to last year
2 Summary Report Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Total Number of Buy Actions Total Number of Sell Actions Total Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Number of Material Breaches Number of NonMaterial Breaches Sep13 Sep12 Number of Balancing Actions (Calendar year to date) Number of Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) Number of NonMaterial Breaches (Calendar year to date) 2
3 Transporter Actions and Neutrality Energy Balancing Capacity
4 Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM September 212 to September 213 GWh , 1,2 1,4 National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells Sep 212 to Sep 213 vs 211/12 Sep12 Oct12 Nov12 Dec12 Jan13 Feb13 Mar13 Apr13 May13 Jun13 Jul13 Aug13 Sep , 1,2 1,4 Buy 212/13 Buy 211/12 Sell 212/13 Sell 211/12 Month Year 213 [YTD] 212 Buy [GWh] Sell [GWh]
5 Days of Default SMP Prices From October 212 to September 213 SMPB Calculation Summary Oct 212 to Sep Oct12 Nov12 Dec12 Jan13 Feb13 Mar13 Apr13 May13 %age Jun13 Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal] Month SMPB SMPS Both Sep 13 9% 97% 87% %age SMPS Calculation Summary Oct 212 to Sep 213 Oct12 Nov12 Dec12 Jan13 Feb13 SMPS [NG Set Price] Mar13 Apr13 May13 Jun13 SMPS [Default Marginal] Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 5
6 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs June Aug 213 Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit [Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM] 1st June to 31st Aug 213 8,, 7,, 6,, 1,678,733 1,37, ,789 14,44,682 5,, 4,, 3,, 6,875,386 57,644,631 2,, 1,, Credits Debits Imbalance Scheduling OCM 6
7 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs June August 213 1,5, OCM Payments / Charges Graph 1st June to 31st Aug 213 Payment [TTB] Charge [TTS] Imbalance Payments / Charges Graph 1st June to 31st Aug 213 2,, 1,, 1,5, 5, 1,, 5, 5, 1,, 1,5, 2,, 7 1/6/213 8/6/213 15/6/213 22/6/213 29/6/213 6/7/213 13/7/213 2/7/213 27/7/213 3/8/213 1/8/213 17/8/213 24/8/213 31/8/213 1/6/213 8/6/213 15/6/213 22/6/213 29/6/213 6/7/213 5, 1,, 1,5, 2,, 2,5, 13/7/213 2/7/213 27/7/213 3/8/213 1/8/213 17/8/213 24/8/213 31/8/213 Day Day 45, Scheduling Charges Graph 1st June to 31st Aug 213 Exit Charge [EXS] Entry Charge [ESC] Exit Charge [DXS] 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Payment [DCS] Charge [DCT] 1/6/213 8/6/213 15/6/213 22/6/213 29/6/213 6/7/213 13/7/213 2/7/213 27/7/213 3/8/213 1/8/213 17/8/213 24/8/213 31/8/213 Day
8 Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue From 1 st April 213 to 3 th September 213 Revenue/Costs WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue 368,242 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue (As at August 13) 68,681 NonObligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) 175 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges Net Revenue 437,98 8
9 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI From 1 st April 213 to 3 th September 213 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI April 213 to September , ST FERGUS 142,643 TEESSIDE 8,338 BARROW THEDDLETHORPE 7,289 EASINGTON 17,866 BACTON 39,16 OTHER Net Revenue 368,242 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other 9
10 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from Entry Cap Overruns, NonObligated Sales [Entry], and Locational Sells and PRI Charges. Totals From 1 st April 213 to 3 th September 213 Month Entry Cap Overrun Revenue Nonobligated sales revenue (entry) Month Locational Sells and PRI charges revenue Apr13 4, Apr13 May13 7,376 May13 Jun13 33,996 Jun13 Jul13 16,257 Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 6,8 Not Yet Available Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Total 68,681 (FY1314) 175 (FY1314) Total (FY13/14) 1
11 Operational Overview
12 National Composite Weather October to Sep 212/13 vs. Historical Range 12
13 Mean Composite Weather Variables July September 213 vs. Previous Yrs 13
14 Demands
15 Gas Demand Breakdown 1st Oct 212 to 3 th September Oct12 15Oct12 29Oct12 12Nov12 26Nov12 1Dec12 24Dec12 7Jan13 21Jan13 4Feb13 18Feb13 4Mar13 18Mar13 1Apr13 15Apr13 29Apr13 13May13 27May13 1Jun13 24Jun13 8Jul13 22Jul13 5Aug13 19Aug13 mcm 2Sep13 16Sep13 3Sep13 Gas Demand Breakdown 1st October 212 to 3th September 213 vs 211/12 Storage Injection Total Interconnector Export DM (Excl Interconnectors) NDM SND Cold Demand Warm Demand Previous Years Demand
16 Demand Mix Comparison Summer/Winter 212/13 25 Average Daily Demand Winter vs. Summer 212/13 2 mcm/d LDZ Power Station IUK Export Moffat Export Storage Injection Industrials Summer Winter
17 LDZ Demand 1st Oct 212 to 3 th September 213 Gas Demand Breakdown [LDZ 212/13 vs 211/12] vs NTS Demand / CWV's 1st October 212 to 3th September Oct12 8Oct12 15Oct12 22Oct12 29Oct12 5Nov12 12Nov12 19Nov12 26Nov12 3Dec12 1Dec12 17Dec12 24Dec12 31Dec12 7Jan13 14Jan13 21Jan13 28Jan13 4Feb13 11Feb13 18Feb13 25Feb13 4Mar13 11Mar13 18Mar13 25Mar13 1Apr13 8Apr13 15Apr13 22Apr13 29Apr13 6May13 13May13 2May13 27May13 3Jun13 1Jun13 17Jun13 24Jun13 1Jul13 8Jul13 15Jul13 22Jul13 29Jul13 5Aug13 12Aug13 19Aug13 26Aug13 2Sep13 9Sep13 16Sep13 23Sep13 3Sep13 mcm Gas Day LDZ Demand 212/13 LDZ Demand 211/12 NTS Demand 212/13 CWV 212/13
18 NDM Historic Demand and 213/14 Forecast mcm/d /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Upper/Lower Percentile Range Average 18
19 Power Generation 1st October 212 to 3 th September
20 Historic Power Gen Demand & 213/14 Forecast mcm/d /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Upper/Lower Percentile Range Average 2
21 Supplies
22 Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st Oct 212 to 3 th September mcm/d 1Oct12 15Oct12 29Oct12 12Nov12 26Nov12 1Dec12 24Dec12 7Jan13 21Jan13 4Feb13 18Feb13 4Mar13 18Mar13 1Apr13 15Apr13 29Apr13 13May13 27May13 1Jun13 24Jun13 8Jul13 22Jul13 5Aug13 19Aug13 2Sep13 16Sep13 3Sep13 Gas Supply Breakdown 1st October 212 to 3th September 213 Gas Day SRS Supplies MRS Supplies LRS Supplies I(UK) BBL LNG Imports Norway (est) UKCS Previous Year Actual Supply
23 Supply Mix 5% Average Daily Supply % Winter vs. Summer % 4% Total UK Gas Supply % 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % UKCS % Norwegian Flows (est.) % LNG % Storage Withdrawal % Interconnector % Summer 44.7% 29.9% 14.7% 4.4% 6.7% Winter 32.1% 35.5% 6.5% 9.7% 23.% 23
24 Geographic Supply Profile Winter vs. Summer 212/13 Winter 212/13 Summer 213 St. Fergus St. Fergus Teesside Easington (inc. Rough ) Teesside Easington (inc. Rough ) Barrow Barrow Burton Point Theddlethorpe Burton Point Theddlethorpe Bacton Bacton Milford Haven Isle Of Grain Milford Haven Isle Of Grain 24
25 UKCS Historic Flows and 212/13 Forecast mcm/d 1 5 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Max Winter Range Winter average Average UKCS on days above 4 Cold Day 25
26 Gas Supply Breakdown IUK 1 st July to 3 th September 213 IUK Export / Import volumes Jul Sep 213 vs Previous Year / SAP 5 1Jul 8Jul 15Jul 22Jul 29Jul 5Aug 12Aug 19Aug 26Aug 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 3Sep 8 Volumes (mcm) price (p/tm) IUK Export [Previous Year] IUK Import [Previous Year] IUK Import IUK Export SAP SAP [Previous Year] 26
27 IUK Historic Flows & 213/14 Forecast mcm/d /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average IUK on days above 4 Cold Day 27
28 Gas Supply Breakdown LNG 1st July to 3th September LNG terminal flows Jul Sep 213 vs Previous Year / SAP Price (p/th) Volumes (mcm) 29Sep 27Sep 25Sep 23Sep 21Sep 19Sep 17Sep 15Sep 13Sep 11Sep 9Sep 7Sep 5Sep 3Sep 1Sep 3Aug 28Aug 26Aug 24Aug 22Aug 2Aug 18Aug 16Aug 14Aug 12Aug 1Aug 8Aug 6Aug 4Aug 2Aug 31Jul 29Jul 27Jul 25Jul 23Jul 21Jul 19Jul 17Jul 15Jul 13Jul 11Jul 9Jul 7Jul 5Jul 3Jul 1Jul SouthHookTer DragonTer Isle of grain DragonTer [Previous Year] Isle of grain [Previous Year] SouthHookTer [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]
29 Gas Supply Breakdown LNG Deliveries Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11 Jul11 Aug11 Sep11 Oct11 Nov11 Dec11 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12 Aug12 Sep12 Oct12 Nov12 Dec12 Jan13 Feb13 Mar13 Apr13 May13 Jun13 Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 LNG Deliveries 211 Japan Tsunami Boat Deliveries 21/11 211/12 212/13 Qatar Algeria Egypt M.E Nigeria Norway Trinidad UAE Unknown USA Yemen
30 Destinations of Top 3 Most Regular UK LNG Tankers 3 Source: Lloyd s List Intelligence
31 LNG Historic Flows and 213/14 Forecast mcm/d /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average LNG on days above 4 Cold Day 31
32 Price (p/th) Gas Supply Breakdown Norway 1 st July to 3 th September 213 Norwegian* supply volumes Jul Sep 213 vs Previous Year / SAP Volumes (mcm) 27Sep 23Sep 19Sep 15Sep 11Sep 7Sep 3Sep 3Aug 26Aug 22Aug 18Aug 14Aug 1Aug 6Aug 2Aug 29Jul 25Jul 21Jul 17Jul 13Jul 9Jul 5Jul 1Jul Norway* Norway* [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year] *Estimated
33 Norwegian Historic Flows and 212/13 Forecast mcm/d /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average for days above 4 Cold Day 33
34 Gas Supply Breakdown Storage 1 st July to 3 th September 213 Storage flows Jul Sep 213 vs Previous Year / SAP Price (p/tm) 5 3Sep 23Sep 16Sep 9Sep 2Sep 26Aug 19Aug 12Aug 5Aug 29Jul 22Jul 15Jul 8Jul 1Jul Storage Storage [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year] Volumes (mcm)
35 Storage Stocks UK 1 st Oct 212 to 3 th September LRS Stocks 12. MRS Stocks TWh TWh Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep LRS 21/211 LRS 211/212 LRS 212/213 MRS 21/211 MRS 211/212 MRS 212/213.7 SRS Stocks TWh Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep MRS 21/211 SRS 211/212 SRS 212/213 35
36 212/13 Reflection Storage Stocks 1 1% 9 9% % 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 36 Net Storage Injection (mcm) 1Apr 5Apr 9Apr 13Apr 17Apr 21Apr 25Apr 29Apr 3May 7May 11May 15May 19May 23May 27May 31May 4Jun 8Jun 12Jun 16Jun 2Jun 24Jun 28Jun 2Jul 6Jul 1Jul 14Jul 18Jul 22Jul 26Jul 3Jul 3Aug 7Aug 11Aug 15Aug 19Aug 23Aug 27Aug 31Aug 4Sep 8Sep 12Sep 16Sep 2Sep 24Sep 28Sep Storage Stock Percentage Full Rough Humbley Grove Hatfield Moor Hornsea Holford Holehouse Farm Aldbrough Avonmouth LRS % Full 212 MRS % Full 212 SRS % Full 212 LRS at Max Inj Max Inj Max Inj LRS % Full 213 MRS % Full 213 SRS % Full 213
37 German Storage Stock (bcm) Flows (mcm/d) Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep Stock inj/wd Avg Stock (2 yrs) 37
38 Storage Stocks EU From 1 st Oct 212 to 3 th September 213 vs. Previous Years 8, Total EU Weekly Storage Levels 7, 6, 5, mcm 4, 3, 2, 1, Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Date 21/ / /213 Aug Sep Stocklevel Status at 6:CET on Wed 2/1/213 Hub Area Stock Level (mcm) % Full Baumgarten % Germany % Iberian % NBP % France % PSV % SOUTHEAST % TTF (Eurohub) % ZEE % Total Hubs % 38
39 Storage Historic Flows and 213/14 Forecast mcm/d /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average Storage on days above 4 39
40 Supply Ranges mcm/d UKCS Norway BBL IUK LNG Imports Range Cold Day 4
41 Winter 213/14 gas supply issues UKCS similar to last year, expectation of new developments to offset further decline Norway, lower production due to long term outage at Troll Continental storage below last year but filling LNG Upside Increased global production Increased coal burn in Japan and possible nuclear restarts Downside Increased global demand (new and established markets) Continuing nuclear shutdown in Japan Decline in LNG available for export UK storage about 8% full, expectation of near full by early November Increased deliverability and space at Aldbrough and Holford Commercial operations to commence at Hill Top Stublach commissioning late winter but commercial operations not expected 41
42 UK Gas Prices p/therm 1Jan13 15Jan13 29Jan13 12Feb13 26Feb13 12Mar13 26Mar13 9Apr13 23Apr13 7May13 21May13 4Jun13 18Jun13 2Jul13 16Jul13 3Jul13 13Aug13 27Aug13 1Sep13 24Sep13 System Prices 1st Jan 213 to 3th September 213 Vs Previous Years SAP SAP SMP Buy SMP Sell SAP Previous Year
43 Actual Linepack 21/2 vs. 211/12 & 212/13 Comparison of Within Day MaxMin Range of NTS Linepack (mcm) Within Day Range of Linepack (mcm) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Range of Linepack Swing 21/2 Rolling 3 Day Average Range 21/2 Range of Linepack Swing 211/12 Rolling 3 Day Average Range 211/12 Range of Linepack Swing 212/13 Rolling 3 Day Average Range 212/13 43
44 15% 1% 5% % 5% 1% 15% Supply Dynamics % Change from 1/24 rate 1Apr 4Apr 7Apr 1Apr 13Apr 16Apr 19Apr 22Apr 25Apr 28Apr 1May 4May 7May 1May 13May 16May 19May 22May 25May 28May 31May 3Jun 6Jun 9Jun 12Jun 15Jun 18Jun 21Jun 24Jun 27Jun 3Jun 6: 12: 12: 18: 18: : : 6:
45 Supply Dynamics 45 6: 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: May 213 Av. May 212 Av. Jun 213 Av. Jun 212 Av.
46 46
System Management Principles Statement
System Management Principles Statement Compliance report for March 213 Summary of balancing actions and breaches for March 213 Performance compared to last year Summary Report Mar 213 Total Number of Buy
System Management Principles Statement
System Management Principles Statement Compliance report for February 214 and March 214 Summary of balancing actions and breaches for February 214 March 214 Performance compared to last year Summary Report
System Management Principles Statement
System Management Principles Statement System Management Principles Statement Compliance report for July, August and September 212 Summary of balancing actions and breaches for July, August and September
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