Aarhus, Regional Miljøkonference 2012.10.31 Klimatilpasning og Skybrudsplan Kan det betale sig? Case: Copenhagen and Frederiksberg Arne Bernt Hasling abh@cowi.dk 1
The basic assumptions Development in economical risk The scenarios for cloudburst adaptation Macroeconomics for the society Most feasible solution 2
The basic assumptions: Sewers / Cloudburst Investment period and re-investments 100 years period for comparison Macroeconomics for the society 3
Development in economical risk 4
Full dynamic analysis of rain and storm surge 5
Risk analysis Floods: Where, When, Frequency, Depth, Damage Costs Map extent and depth of floods from Sea Heavy rain Flowing water on surface Rivers, watercourses (Groundwater) FLOW DIRECTIONS RIVERS RAIN SEA LIKELIHOOD Likelihood for floods (statistic year by year and the whole period 2010-2110) RISK DAMAGE COSTS Damage Costs from floods Total Risk (e.g. economically) Likelihood x consequences 6
Development in economically risk caused by floods from rain or sea Klimatilpasningsplan København Sea Year 7 Rain
Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios 8
Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios 1. Step: Sewers and some cloudburst initiatives 2. Step: Assuming that sewers meet service target Cloudburst initiatives: - all over the city - to same level of safety Two main principles for primary water transportation system: Channels on ground or Tunnels 9
Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios Cloudburst initiatives only for areas with more than 15 cm water during the extreme event. 10
Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios Local collection and storage systems on surface Main transportation systems on or below ground 11
Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios 12
Macroeconomics for the society 13
Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Cloudburst only: (assuming that the sewers are upgraded or unloaded) Design Storm, Protection Level Damage Reduction Construction and O&M. Open Chanels Net Profit Open Chanels Construction and O&M Pipes and Chanels Net Profit Pipes and Chanels NPV Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. 20-year (2010) - - - - - Bil.Kr. 100-year (2010) 20-year (2110) 1.2 4.2-2.9 3.2-2.0 100-year (2110) 2.1 6.4-4.3 4.7-2.5 400-year (2110) (2/7-2011) 2.3 8.2-5.9 5.5-3.2 14
Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Sewers only: (upgrading/unload to meet the 2110 situation) Sewer initiative. Protection method Damage Reduction Construction and O&M. Net Profit NPV Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Upgrading sewers 10-year (2110) 10.1 13.8-3.7 Non-return valves 5.8 1.5 4.3 15
Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Combination of sewers and cloudburst initiatives: Copenhagen Cloudburst initiatives are also used to relieve the rainwater pressure on the sewers during more comment events. Non-return valves in all connection pipes. Design Storm, Protection Level Damage Reduction Combined Initiative Construction and O&M. Combined Initiative Net Profit Combined Initiative NPV Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. 20-year (2010) - - - 100-year (2010) 20-year (2110) 7.9 7.6 0.4 100-year (2110) 9.6 8.0 1.6 400-year (2110) (2/7-2011) 9.8 9.5 0.3 16
Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Combination of sewers and cloudburst initiatives: Cph. + Frb. Cloudburst initiatives are also used to relieve the rainwater pressure on the sewers during more comment events. Non-return valves in all connection pipes. Design Storm, Protection Level Damage Reduction Combined Initiative Construction and O&M. Combined Initiative Net Profit Combined Initiative NPV Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. Bil.Kr. 20-year (2010) - - - 100-year (2010) 20-year (2110) 8.8 8.0 0.8 100-year (2110) 10.8 8.8 2.0 400-year (2110) (2/7-2011) 11.0 10.2 0.8 17
Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives Most feasible initiatives and potentials (max. 15.600) 17.000 15.000 13.000 11.000 9.000 7.000 5.000 3.000 1.000 Damage Reduction Total Costs Net Profit Cost Effectiveness -1.000-3.000 18
Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario 12000 10000 8000 Mio kr. 6000 4000 2000 0 20 50 100 200 400 Gentagelsesperiode for tiltag (år) Tiltagsomkostning Nettogevinst Skadesomkostninger efter tiltag 19
Most feasible solution 20
Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario Local collection and storage system on surface Main transportation system on or below ground 21
Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario 22
Adaptation Initiatives Where to start? 23 Nr. Område Økonom isk Let at Synergi Vægtet Nr. Område Økonom risiko isk gennem føre effekter score risikoi nd ex I2 Indre by S 9,00 5 3,6 17,6 I2 Indre by S 100,00 I1 Indre by N 7,02 4 3,6 14,6 I1 Indre by N 78,00 N Østerbro 3,96 3 6,0 13,0 SH Sluseholmen 67,00 SH Sluseholmen 6,03 4 2,4 12,4 M1 Vesterbro 54,00 M1 Vesterbro 4,86 2 2,4 9,3 N Østerbro 44,00 M4 M2 Ladegårdsåen Frederiksberg 35,00 2,25 2 4,8 9,1 CH CH Christianshavn Christianshavn 33,00 2,97 4 1,2 8,2 SVØ Svanemøllen Lersøgrøften 27,00 2,25 2 3,6 7,9 R M4Valby Ladegårdsåen 25,00 1,80 2 3,6 7,4 M2SV Frederiksberg Svanemøllen 25,00 3,15 3 1,2 7,4 U2R Utterslev Valby 20,00 0,63 3 3,6 7,2 Ø A2 Lersøgrøften Kastrup Fort 18,00 2,43 1 3,6 7,0 A2A1 Kastrup Amager Fort Stand 12,00 1,62 3 2,4 7,0 BVKE Vanløse Kongens Enghave 12,00 0,18 3 3,6 6,8 M3 København NV U1 Utterslev mose 12,00 0,36 4 2,4 6,8 V Grøndalsåen 9,00 A1 Amager Stand 1,08 3 2,4 6,5 NH Nordhavn 8,00 KE Kongens Enghave 1,08 3 2,4 6,5 U2 Utterslev 7,00 V Grøndalsåen 0,81 2 3,6 6,4 IB Islands Brygge 5,00 NH Nordhavn 0,72 4 1,2 5,9 U4 Emdrup 5,00 IB Islands Brygge 0,45 3 2,4 5,9 U3 Husum 5,00 M3 U1 København Utterslev mose NV 1,08 4,00 3 1,2 5,3 U4 Emdrup 0,45 1 3,6 5,1
Adaptation Initiatives Where to start? 24
Adaptation Initiatives When to act? 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0-1.000 Nettogevinst Net Profit Nettogevinst Profit 25
Development in economically risk caused by floods from rain or sea Klimatilpasningsplan København Sea Year 26 Rain
Adaptation Initiatives Who are going to pay? Actors, financing and investment plan (budget economy) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-25 Interest, 3% Repayment, 30 years Municipality 0 4 8 12 240 Water Company 0 22 44 66 1360 Interest, 4% Repayment, 50 years Municipality 0 4 7 11 345 Water Company 0 20 41 63 1950 27
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Aarhus, Regional Miljøkonference 2012.10.31 Klimatilpasning og Skybrudsplan Kan det betale sig? Case: Copenhagen and Frederiksberg Arne Bernt Hasling abh@cowi.dk 29