CARNEGIE LARGE CAP SEMINAR Danske Bank Tonny Thierry Andersen CFO & Member of the Executive Board Carnegie, 26 September 2006
The moment of truth - Danske Banks position Value creation + Increasing interest rates => increasing liability margins Limits the fall in average margins + Continued strong volume growth Double digit growth in core markets + Integration costs Only a small amount in 2007 - Loan losses will appear again When? - Falling lending margins Mortgage book in Denmark, no significant back book in Norway and Sweden + CRD => Better incentives for active risk and capital management And the winner is? + Diversification Geographies: DK, SE, NO, IE, NI Customers: retail, corporate Products + Increased cross selling Strong in DK, getting better in other core markets + Cost control and operational efficiency Keeping a close eye on costs; synergies in NB/NIB Short term Mid term 2
Danske Banks strategy and focus A transition towards being an international retail bank 2006 2005 2001 1999 Mergers/acquisitions Divestitures/closures HandelsFinans Banking Activities UK Banking Activities US Danske Securities Banking Activities Asia BG Guaranty & BG Factoring Non-life insurance 1997 1995 1990 3
Tight Business model Growth Diversity Double Impact 4
Our vision One platform exceptional brands 5
Tight retail banking model Differentiated local branding standardised central platform Local bank Global back office Local bank - global back office 1. Local presence 2. Regional centres with branch networks 3. SME banking offerings 4. Affluent individual banking/long-term savings 5. Standardised mass affluent offering 6. Direct support (Web, ATM, call centre) 7. Standardised products/processes 8. Centralised support functions/processes Customers Initial focus on the SME segment Second, focus on high-end affluent Standard mass affluent Products Cross-border identical offerings Packages Open architecture 9. Cross-border IT platform 6
Multiple and tailored brands 7
Branding - One size dosnt fit all? 8
Business model Volkswagen Group It is the goal of the Group to offer attractive, safe and environmentally sound vehicles which are competitive and which set world standards in their respective classes on an increasingly tough market. R&D Sales & Marketing Finance Service & Maintenance 9
Banking offers economies of scale standardised IT - but scope for local adaptation International standards / local standards Trade finance Card issuing Securities trading Credits and loans Pension products Customer packages Marketing Product development International standards Local standards Accounting IT Asset/liability management 10
One Group One System A Strategy of doing things the same way everywhere Brand Channel Branches Credit Cards Asset Management Product Core Currency Payments Approvals Customer Accounts Organization Customer output Mortgage Accounting Internet ATMs Bonds & Equities Cash Management Dataware house Life & Pension FOREX Interests Fees Risk Treasury Leasing Finance Centers Contact Center 11
Our IT- efficiency and effectiveness - confirmed by Datamonitor % 24 22 Relative IT expenses vs. change the bank costs Legacy / Median 05 transaction trap (32.6%) IT cost / operating cost 2004 20 18 16 14 12 Median 05 (15.2%) Under-investment driving inefficiency 18 23 28 33 38 'Change-the-bank' cost / IT cost, 2005 Danske Bank 2005 52.3%/15.1% Efficient infrastructure & applications 43 Danske Bank has the highest change the bank spending % Source: Datamonitor, June 2006 12
Growth Diversity 13
Margins are coming down - but Danske Bank is in a relatively good position % 0.25 Expected fall in margins (NII/RWA) 2006-2012 0.20 0.13 0.12 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.00 Source: Danske Equities, August 2006 14
Danske Bank s market profile 70 # Branches Sweden 5% 57 95 20% 289 Market share 5% 25% #1 in DK, #1 in SE # 3 in NO 59 174 2% 10% 33% Lux Ger Pol Fin 15
BUSINESS TRENDS Thriving, high-growth markets % 8 GDP growth 2006E 4 Avg. Euro zone 0 Baltics IE NO ES FI SE CH UK NL DK FR IT DE Source: Danske Markets 16
BUSINESS TRENDS Thriving, high-growth markets -And were growing faster than the markets % 8 GDP growth 2006E 4 Avg. Euro zone 0 % 60 Baltics IE NO ES FI SE CH UK NL DK FR IT DE Lending growth H1 06/H1 05 30 0 Baltics IE NO ES FI SE CH UK NL DK FR IT DE 17
GDP ($) per inhabitant 70,000 Present in strong and well developed markets Norway, 5% Size of bubble: Market share Denmark, 30% 37,500 N. Ireland*; 20% Sweden, 5% Ireland, 4% 5,000 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% GDP Growth 2005 Source: Sigma, Swiss Re & Danske Analyse *Note: N. Ireland is UK and market share is for N. Ireland Poland, 0% 18
Double Impact 19
Continued product improvement New products - Open plan, FlexGaranti, interest-only loans & floaters, etc. Product packages Master all distribution channels 20
Strong growth in our young markets Lending growth Y/Y Q2 2006 % 60 50 40 Retail Corporate White line = market average 30 20 10 * ** 0 Norway Sweden Northern Ireland The Republic of Ireland Note: NB and NIB bars are total lending. * The average is based on UK lending numbers. ** The market average is growth in total bank lending. 21
Strategic ambition leveraging the growth option Lending growth pct. Long term strategic goal Growth (pa.) 1H 06 Market growth 1H 06 Double digit growth 18 20 Double market growth 24 20 Double market growth 28 20 Double market growth 20 >10 Double market growth 54 >25 22
First half of 2006 in brief - Satisfactory result Profit after tax DKr bn 6.5 6.0 5.5 2% 6.0 6.1 H1 2005 H1 2006 Sound macroeconomic conditions Better-than-expected earnings from Banking Activities and Danske Markets Loss on equity holdings at Danica Pension and other units 23
First half of 2006 in brief - Fundamentally sound global economy sustains business activity Profit after tax DKr bn 6.5 6.0 5.5 2% 6.0 6.1 H1 2005 H1 2006 Selected accounting highlights Income 6% Expenses 12% Return on equity 16.6% Lending growth 23% 24
Growth Diversity Tight Business model Double Impact 25
www.danskebank.com/ir 26