Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 18. maj 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste begivenhed bliver nok offentliggørelsen af referatet af rentemødet i den amerikanske centralbank den 27. april. Det forrige referat blev tolket til den bløde side. Således bekræftede referatet, at flere FOMC-medlemmer delte Yellens holdning om, at en forsigtig tilgang til fjernelsen af stimulans vil være klog. Nogle mente dog, at en renteforhøjelse i april kunne være ønskelig, men flertallet mente, at det ville sende et upassende signal om at det hastede. Diskussionen om april synes dog, alt andet lige, at sætte ekstra fokus på muligheden for en forhøjelse til juni. Spørgsmålet er således, om denne mulighed blev diskuteret på aprilmødet? Derudover nedtonede man på det seneste rentemøde i april risiciene udgående fra de finansielle markeder og global økonomi, og det er interessant, i hvilken udstrækning dette forbehold for renteforhøjelser helt er parkeret i denne omgang. De endelige tal for inflationen i euroområdet i april ventes ikke at afvige fra den foreløbige opgørelse, som viste et fald fra 0,0% y/y i marts til -0,2% y/y (se figur). Euroområdet: Inflationsfald ventes bekræftet Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der var ikke de store markedsbevægelser i går. Aktiemarkederne faldt lidt de fleste steder (men ikke i Danmark), men obligationsrenterne flyttede sig ikke synderligt, og EUR/USD lå også nogenlunde konstant. Her til morgen kan valutamarkedet ikke beslutte sig for, om de stærke japanske BNP-tal er gode for JPY, da de signalerer stærk økonomi, eller om de er dårlige for JPY, da den planlagte men usikre momsforhøjelse alligevel vil blive gennemført, hvilket vil ramme økonomien. Japan: BNP steg med 0,4% q/q i 1. kvartal, op fra -0,3% i 4. kvartal og noget bedre end konsensusforventningen på 0,1%. Det var især privatforbruget, som overraskede positivt. Kina: Der er nu boligprisstigninger i 65 byer ud af de 70 omfattet af statistikken, op fra 62 i marts. USA: Forbrugerprisindekset steg med 0,4% m/m. Det var en anelse mere end ventet og den største månedlige stigning i over tre år. Årsvækstraten steg til 1,1% y/y. Kerneinflationen faldt fra 2,2% y/y til 2,1% som ventet, men også her var der tale om en pæn månedlig stigning på 0,2% m/m. Gårsdagens tal gør alt andet lige en renteforhøjelse fra Fed på juni-mødet lidt mere sandsynlig, men der skal nok mere til at overbevise Fed om at det er tid at agere igen. Udsigterne for inflationen fremadrettet er påvirket af forskellige faktorer. Den svagere USD kombineret med basiseffekten af lavere energipriser for et år siden bør trække op i den totale inflationstakt de kommende måneder. Denne effekt bliver dog imødegået af en meget lav prisudvikling udgående fra fremstillingsindustrien. Derudover har lønudviklingen peget på, at de vigtige kerneforbrugerpriser vil byde ind med en mere stabil inflationsudvikling de kommende måneder oven på den seneste lidt overraskende store stigning. Industriproduktionen steg med 0,7% m/m noget mere end ventet i april, men primært på grund af øget elektricitetsproduktion. Således steg produktionen i fremstillingssektoren kun med 0,3% m/m på linje med forventningen, men det er nu også et hæderligt udfald efter store fald på 0,6% m/m i hver af de to foregående måneder. Det påbegyndte boligbyggeri steg en smule i april, men det ændrer ikke på, at byggeaktiviteten i store linjer fortsætter den flade udvikling over det seneste års tid Storbritannien: Inflationen faldt overraskende til 0,3% y/y i april. Der var ventet uændret inflation på 0,5%. Det var det første fald i inflationen siden september sidste år, og også kerneinflationen faldt. Det lægger selvklart pres på Bank of England, som i øvrigt pt. har rigeligt at gøre med at forberede sig på et muligt Brexit efter folkeafstemningen om en måned. Inflationsfaldet var i øvrigt på linje med Bank of Englands eget skøn fra den seneste inflationsrapport. USA: Inflationen en anelse højere end ventet Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 18. maj 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,55% / indeks 1014,37) endte sidste handelsdag i positivt terræn. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte blandt andet de råvarerelaterede aktier som FLSmidth (+3,15% / kurs 248,90) og A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+3,37% / kurs 8905,00). Samme tendens gjorde sig gældende over hele Europa, hvor de råvarerelaterede aktier fik medvind fra stigende råvarepriser. GN Store Nord (+2,38% / kurs 133,10) var i fokus efter selskabet i weekenden meddelte, at høreapparatdivisionen GN ReSound har indgået en langsigtet leveringsaftale med amerikanske Audigy Group, som er en uafhængig indkøbsgruppe af audiologer. Desuden har parterne nået til enighed om en betinget aftale om, at GN Resound overtager Audiga for en pris på knap 1. mia. kr. I bunden af det ledende OMXC20 CAP-indeks endte Pandora (-1,18% / kurs 960,00) som blev ramt af gevinsthjemtagning, efter aktien i steg med omkring 13% (og satte ny kursrekord) i kølvandet på et stærkt regnskab den 10. maj. Renter Der var ikke de store bevægelser på rentemarkederne i går. Både de tyske og danske statsrenter steg fra morgenstunden, men faldt efterfølgende og endte stort set uændret. Der var da heller ingen nøgletal til at styre udviklingen. I USA steg renterne lidt i takt med råvareprisstigninger. Samtidig spillede det nok ind, at forbrugerprisindekset steg en anelse mere end ventet med den største månedlige stigning i over tre år. Årsvækstraten steg til 1,1% y/y. Det gør alt andet lige en renteforhøjelse fra Fed på juni-mødet lidt mere sandsynlig, To Fed-folk, Lockhart og Williams, var da også ude og indikere, at en junirenteforhøjelse ikke helt skal afskrives. Valuta USD blev styrket lidt i går over for EUR og de fleste andre valutaer. Overraskende stærk industriproduktion og især overraskende høj forbrugerprisinflation medvirkede nok til styrkelsen. Stigningen i inflationen gør alt andet lige en renteforhøjelse fra Fed på juni-mødet lidt mere sandsynlig, To Fed-folk, Lockhart og Williams, var da også ude og indikere, at en junirenteforhøjelse ikke helt skal afskrives. JPY går lidt op og ned over for USD her til morgen, Valutamarkedet kan tilsyneladende ikke helt beslutte sig for, om de stærke japanske BNP-tal er gode for JPY, da de signalerer stærk økonomi, eller om de er dårlige for JPY, da den planlagte men usikre momsforhøjelse alligevel vil blive gennemført, hvilket vil ramme økonomien. GBP lå nogenlunde konstant over for både EUR og USD i går efter GBP-styrkelse fra morgenstunden i går ovenpå en ny meningsmåling, som viste større opbakning end tidligere til at blive i EU. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 18. maj 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 18/05/16 FLSmidth 1. kvartal 18/05/16 Zealand Pharma 1.kvartal 18/05/16 Veloxis 1.kvartal 18/05/16 IC Group 3. kvartal 19/05/16 H+H 1.kvartal 19/05/16 Rockwool 1.kvartal 19/05/16 Santa Fe 1.kvartal 20/05/16 Topsil 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 16/05/16 14:30 USA Empire Manufacturing May (9.02) 16/05/16 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index May /05/16 09:45 EMU ECB's Praet Speaks on Economic Reforms /05/16 10:30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/0.5% %/0.5% 0.1%/0.3% 17/05/16 10:30 UK CPI Core YoY Apr 1.4% % 1.2% 17/05/16 14:30 USA Housing Starts Apr 1120k k 1172k 17/05/16 14:30 USA Building Permits Apr 1128k k 1116k 17/05/16 14:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/1.1% %/0.9% 0.4%/1.1% 17/05/16 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/2.1% %/2.2% 0.2%/2.1% 17/05/16 15:15 USA Industrial Production (MoM) Apr 0.3% % 0.7% 17/05/16 15:15 USA Manufacturing (SIC) Production (MoM) Apr 0.3% % 0.3% 18/05/16 01:50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 1Q P 0.1% % 0.4% 18/05/16 10:30 UK Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Mar 2.3% % 18/05/16 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Mar 5.1% % 18/05/16 11:00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0%/-0.2% 0%/-0.2% 1.2%/-0.2% 18/05/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Apr F 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 18/05/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May % 18/05/16 20:00 USA U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from April FOMC Meeting /05/16 01:50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) Mar -1.9%/0.8% %/-0.7% 19/05/16 07:30 Frankrig ILO Unemployment Rate 1Q 10.3% % 19/05/16 10:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.7%/2.6% %/2.7% 19/05/16 13:30 EMU ECB account of the monetary policy meeting 19/05/16 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Apr /05/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May k 19/05/16 14:30 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook May /05/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May /05/16 16:30 USA Fed's Dudley Speaks on Macroeconomic Trends 20/05/16 08:00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/-3.0% -- 0%/-3.1% 20/05/16 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr %/ -1%/-3.1% 20/05/16 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Apr 5.40m m Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Lars Henriksson Foreign Exchange Strategist Macro Research Ann Öberg Chief Economist anob04@handelsbanken.se Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Senior Economist, Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Jaan Kivilo Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC