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1 19. oktober 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I eftermiddag offentliggøres den første af en række tal for tilstanden på det amerikanske boligmarked, nemlig NAHB byggeaktivitetsindekset. Konsensus venter en uændret værdi på 62. NAHB følges op af tal for byggetilladelser og påbegyndt boligbyggeri tirsdag og salget af eksisterende boliger torsdag. Ellers er der ikke de store nøgletal på programmet fra USA resten af ugen, så fokus vil nok især være på ECB-mødet onsdag og PMI-tallene fredag. På det forrige rentemøde i september gentog ECB-chef Draghi, at yderligere stimulanstiltag er muligt, og at ECB Styrelsesråd står både klar til og er i stand til at handle, hvis nødvendigt. Vi forventer dog ikke nye lempelser allerede på denne uges møde, men tror at ECB forsøger at købe tid indtil inflationen kommer komfortabelt tilbage over nulpunktet, og indtil vi måske får nogle mere beroligende signaler på Kinas vækst og mere overbevisende dokumentation for, at en amerikansk renteforhøjelse er nær. Udviklingen i EUR vil nok spille en central rolle. EUR har ligget nogenlunde stabilt siden sidste rentemøde, også selv om Fed ikke umiddelbart fremstod tættere på en første renteforhøjelse på rentemødet i september. Skulle EUR styrkes signifikant de kommende dage, kan ECB føle sig tvunget til at handle. Fredag offentliggør Markit flash-estimater for PMIindikatorerne for de fleste lande. Bemærk dog, at der ikke længere kommer flash-pmi for Kina. Vi forventer, at composite PMI-indekset for euroområdet falder en smule til 53,2 i oktober fra 53,6. Det bliver interessant, i hvilket omfang tysk industri reagerer negativt på VW skandalen, som kom oven i allerede træge hårde data for tysk industri i de seneste måneder. USA: NAHB ventes uændret på 62 Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne steg i fredags i takt med at en snarlig rentestigning fra den amerikanske centralbank virkede mindre og mindre sandsynlig som følge af svage makroøkonomiske nøgletal. Den øgede optimisme gav en lille stigning i statsrenterne, især i USA. USD blev styrket lidt over EUR. De asiatiske aktier ligger til små fald her til morgen, mens Kinas børser ligger svagt i plus efter stærkere end ventede BNP-tal. Kina: BNP-væksten i Kina faldt kun lidt og mindre end ventet i 3. kvartal til 6,9% y/y fra 7,0% i 2. kvartal. Hermed ser det ud til, at de mange pengepolitiske stimulanser, infrastrukturprojekter og lempelser af boligmarkedsreguleringen har formået at stabilisere BNP-væksten, så den ikke falder alt for langt under målsætningen for hele 2015 på 7,0%. Det burde dæmpe de udbredte bekymringer for udsigterne for Kinas økonomi, også selvom skepsissen er høj om troværdigheden af de officielle kinesiske økonomiske data blandt aktørerne på de finansielle markeder. De månedlige aktivitetsindikatorer for september var ikke udelukkende positive. Væksten i industriproduktionen faldt mere end ventet til 5,7% y/y fra 6,1% i august, og væksten i de faste investeringer faldt ligeledes mere end ventet. Sidstnævnte opgøres kun som væksten i investeringerne år-til-dato i forhold til året før år-til-dato, og dette mål faldt fra 10,9% til 10,3%. Det dækker ifølge vores egne beregninger over et markant fald i den almindelige årsvækstrate fra 9,1% y/y til 6,8%. Til gengæld overraskede detailomsætningsvæksten ved at stige til 10,9% y/y. Det tyder sammen med robust servicesektor-vækst på fremgang i den indenlandske økonomi og især privatforbruget USA: Industriproduktionen faldt med 0,2% m/m i september på linje med konsensusestimatet, især trukket af tilbagegang i mine- og udvindingsproduktionen relateret til de lave råvarepriser. Produktionen i fremstillingssektoren faldt således kun med 0,1%, hvilket var bedre end ventet. Forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan rebound ede og steg mere end ventet til 92,1 i oktober fra 87,2 i september, sandsynligvis trukket af de lave energipriser og af at aktiemarkedsuroen har lagt sig lidt i forhold til i september. Tallet for nye jobopslag fra JOLT-statistikken viste et fald fra 5,7 til 5,4 mio., og sammen med den svage arbejdsmarkedsrapport for lidt over en uge siden tyder det på, at den amerikanske centralbank i hvert fald ikke hæver renten allerede i denne måned og måske heller ikke senere i år. Euroområdet: De endelige inflationstal afveg ikke fra den foreløbige opgørelse, som viste et fald til -0,1% y/y i september. US: Forbrugertilliden (UoM) rebund er Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 19. oktober 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,11% / indeks 966,88) endte ugens sidste handelsdag i positivt territorium. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet Novo Nordisk (+4,01% / kurs 360,90) selvom der ikke var noget væsentligt selskabsspecifikt nyt. Dog har medicinalaktierne, herunder Novo Nordisk, været presset i kølvandet på de amerikanske politikeres forøgede fokus på medicinalpriser. Men frygten for prispres i USA er aftaget, i kølvandet på den seneste debat runde mellem de to demokratiske præsident kandidater Hillary Clinton og Bernie Sanders, hvor der ikke var meget fokus på medicinalpriser. Det var formentligt en væsentlig årsag til Novo-aktiens pæne kursudvikling i fredags. Herudover fik Novo Nordisk-aktien formentligt også lidt medvind af, at konkurrenten Astrazeneca bliver nødt til at udskyde lanceringen af et nyt diabetesmiddel, da de amerikanske sundhedsmyndigheder kræver flere studier. I modsatte ende af indekset endte blandt andet Vestas (-0,75% / kurs 371,90) der ellers annoncerede en ordre på 144 MW. Dermed har Vestas annonceret ordrer for samlet 6043 MW i år. Annonceringen af den store ordre fik Vestas-aktien til at stige med over 1%. Men ud på eftermiddagen vendte aktien rundt efter konkurrenten GE rapporterede et fald i ordreindgangen på 2%. Renter De danske statsrenter lå helt fladt fredag efter et fald fra morgenstunden. Der var ikke meget mere sving i de tyske renter, men heller ikke rigtig nogen europæiske nøgletal til at sætte dagsordenen. De amerikanske statsrenter steg lidt i takt med bedret risikoappetit, blandt andet som følge af at en snarlig rentestigning fra den amerikanske centralbank virkede mindre og mindre sandsynlig. Industriproduktionen faldt med 0,2% m/m i september, især trukket af tilbagegang i mine- og udvindingsproduktionen relateret til de lave råvarepriser. Til gengæld steg forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan mere end ventet til 92,1 i oktober fra 87,2 i september, Valuta USD styrkedes lidt fredag over for EUR og også over for de fleste andre valutaer. De var nok blandt andet drevet af et rebound i forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan, som steg mere end ventet til 92,1 i oktober fra 87,2 i september. EUR-svækkelsen skal nok også ses i lyset af tiltagende forventninger om at ECB opskalerer sit opkøbsprogram senere på ugen. De endelige inflationstal afveg ikke fra den foreløbige opgørelse, som viste et fald til -0,1% y/y i september. JPY svækkedes over for USD i fredags i takt med børsfremgangen.. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 19. oktober 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 21/10/15 Nordea 3. kvartal 21/10/15 Ringkjøbing Landbobank 3. kvartal 21/10/15 Chr. Hansen 4. kvartal 22/10/15 Ôssur 3. kvartal 22/10/15 Novozymes 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 19/10/15 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices MoM/YoY Oct %/6.4% 0.6%/5.6% 19/10/15 04:00 Kina Retail Sales YoY Sep 10.8% % 10.9% 19/10/15 04:00 Kina Industrial Production YoY Sep 6.0% % 5.7% 19/10/15 04:00 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Sep 10.8% % 10.3% 19/10/15 04:00 Kina GDP SA QoQ/YoY 3Q 1.8%/6.8% 1.8%/6.8% 1.7%/7.0% 1.8%/6.9% 19/10/15 15:00 EMU SSM's Nouy Speaks in European Parliament Panel in Brussels 19/10/15 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Oct /10/15 10:00 EMU ECB Current Account SA Aug b 20/10/15 14:30 USA Housing Starts Sep 1142k k 20/10/15 14:30 USA Building Permits Sep 1163k k 20/10/15 15:00 Belgien Consumer Confidence Index Oct /10/15 15:00 USA Fed's Dudley, Powell Speak at Market Conference in New York 20/10/15 17:00 USA Fed Chair Yellen Makes Brief Welcoming Remarks at Ceremony 21/10/15 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Sep b b 21/10/15 10:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Sep 9.0b b 21/10/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 16. Oct % 22/10/15 03:45 Kina MNI October Business Indicator 22/10/15 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Oct /10/15 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Oct /10/15 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales MoM/YoY Sep %/ %/0.2% 22/10/15 10:00 EMU ECB Publishes Monthly Report 22/10/15 13:45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 22. Oct 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 22/10/15 13:45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 22. Oct -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 22/10/15 13:45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 22. Oct 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 22/10/15 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Sep /10/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 17. Oct k 22/10/15 14:30 USA Continuing Claims 10. Oct k 22/10/15 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Aug 0.5% % 22/10/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 18. Oct /10/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Economic Expectations Oct /10/15 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Oct A /10/15 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Sep 5.36m m 22/10/15 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales MoM Sep 0.9% % 22/10/15 16:00 USA Leading Index Sep 0.0% % 22/10/15 17:00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct /10/15 03:30 Kina China September Property Prices 23/10/15 03:35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct P /10/15 09:00 Frankrig Markit France Composite PMI Oct P /10/15 09:30 Tyskland Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Oct P /10/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P /10/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct P /10/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P /10/15 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Oct /10/15 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P /10/15 EMU ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC