Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

Transkript

1 9. februar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Offentliggørelsen af industriproduktionen for Tyskland kommer til morgen (efter oprindeligt at være annonceret til mandag). Produktionen har skuffet de seneste fire måneder, og der er en risiko for at den ikke helt lever op til den ventede stigning i december, efter et skuffende fald i fredags i industriordrerne. Niveauet for ordrerne har dog været højere end selve produktionen de seneste par måneder, ligesom PMI-indekset ikke umiddelbart peger på yderligere svagheder, jf. dagens figur. Derfor må der ventes en lille stigning i produktionen i december. Derudover ventes eksporten at stige en smule igen i december. Hvis det bliver tilfældet, er det første gang i syv måneder at der har været tale om en stigning to måneder i streg. Ydermere modtager vi fra USA et par interessante rapporter med hensyn til udviklingen på arbejdsmarkedet i form af JOLT og NFIB s beskæftigelsesindeks, som begge offentliggøres tirsdag. Indeksene befinder sig fortsat på meget høje niveauer indikerende fortsat robust beskæftigelsesfremgang. Dog har indeksene antaget en mere flad udvikling, hvilket kan indikere, at en top er nået i denne omgang. JOLT-rapporten viste derudover en ny stigning i antallet af medarbejderopsigelser i november til det højeste niveau siden april Det kan antyde øget knaphed på kvalificerede arbejdsressourcer, som kan lede til større jobcirkulation eventuelt i søgen på højere lønninger? Derudover venter vi, at NFIB-indekset for tilliden blandt mindre virksomheder vil falde til 94,0 i januar fra 95,2 i december. Dette baseres primært på det uventede store fald i ISM s serviceindeks i samme måned. Tysk industriproduktion bør stige lidt i december Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Blodrøde aktiemarkeder sender renter og oliepris nedad og JPY i stærkeste niveau mod USD siden Den negative stemning fortsætter til morgen med stort børsfald i Japan det største siden august, og US-futures fortsætter nedad sammen med statsrenterne. Olieprisen falder mens guldprisen stiger. USA: Forbrugernes inflationsforventninger faldt til rekordlave niveauer på både et og tre års horisont på henholdsvis 2,4% og 2,5%. Det viste undersøgelse fra distriktscentralbanken i New York. Fald i husholdningernes inflationsforventninger tillægges typisk større vægt af Fed, end tilsvarende markedsbaserede mål, som ofte svinger mere. Undersøgelse medvirkede sammen med børsfald til, at markedernes implicitte forventning til Fed-renteforhøjelse til marts-rentemødet faldt til 0% i henhold til Bloomberg. Euroområdet: Sentix investorbaserede konjunkturbarometer faldt lidt mere end ventet til 6,0 i februar fra 9,6 i januar. Dermed nåede indekset ned i nyt laveste niveau siden januar sidste år. Det var især investorernes forventninger til den fremtidige økonomiske situation, der trak ned. Således peger indekset endnu kraftigere på opbremsning i økonomien i begyndelsen af det nye år, om end indekset typisk svinger mere end andre konjunkturbarometre som følge af påvirkningen på stemningen fra finansmarkederne. Dog kan indekset ofte tidligere opfange nye tendenser end andre barometre, og meget kan altså tyde på at de andre kommer til at rette ind (nedad) efter Sentix-barometeret, jf. figur. Frankrig: Bank of France kunne vise en overraskende ny stigning i erhvervstillidsbarometer i januar til det højeste niveau siden maj Der var fremgang i de fleste underindeks, herunder for produktion og ordreindgang. Dermed spejler indekset de mere positive toner vi også har set i INSEE s konjunkturbarometer, og ifølge Bank of France peger det på en øget BNP-vækst på omkring 0,4% q/q i 1. kvartal, samt at økonomien er ved at blive mindre afhængig af støtte fra privatforbruget. Danmark: Vareeksporten steg med 0,3% m/m i december, hvilket var lidt mindre end vores forventninger. Trods den begrænsede fremgang er det dog opløftende at det går fremad med eksporten for 2. måned i træk. At vareeksporten fortsat var på den svage side skyldes især et fald i eksporten af brændsel. Trods en stigning i vareimporten på 0,8% m/m, er der alligevel tegn på, at nettohandlen med varer har bidraget positivt til BNP-væksten i 4. kvartal. Således steg vareeksporten med 1,0% q/q i 4. kvartal, mens importen steg med 0,2% q/q. Det er især lande uden for EU der trækker fremgangen i eksporten. Desværre udvandes det positive billede af et nyt stort fald i eksporten af tjenester på 2,8% q/q i 4. kvartal. Samlet ser udenrigshandlen med varer og tjenester således ud til at have været neutral for BNP-væksten i 4. kvartal. Med udsigt til et fortsat skrøbeligt globalt økonomisk opsving, samt den seneste tids tendens til en stærkere DKK over for bl.a. USD og GBP er det endvidere vores indtryk, at eksporten vil få svært ved for alvor at trække fra land i den kommende tid. EUR: Sentix med tydeligere opbremsningssignal Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. februar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-5,43% / indeks 904,78) endte i negativt territorium på ugens første handelsdag. Stemningen var trykket af en række faktorer. Blandt disse var en faldende oliepris, frygt for svag global vækst og udsigten til, at den amerikanske centralbank kommer til, at hæve renten tidligere end ventet. Det danske marked var ekstra hårdt ramt på trods af at der næsten ingen væsentlige selskabsspecifikke nyheder var. Det kan skyldes det danske markeds status som et randmarked med mange små og forholdsvis illikvide selskaber, der deraf er relativt let påvirkelige og volatile. Samtidigt ejes omkring halvdelen af aktierne i det ledende danske C20-indeks af udenlandske investorer. Og det var netop især de udenlandske investorer som solgte ud af danske aktier. Alle C20-indeksets 20 aktier faldt i gårsdagens handel, men det mest markante fald ramte Genmab (-11,53% / kurs 663,50) selvom der ikke var noget selskabsspecifikt nyt. Genmab kan dog betegnes som en højrisiko-aktie og denne type aktier bliver typisk hårdest ramt på dage med kraftige fald. Renter Obligationsrenterne blev mandag dikteret ned af en panikagtig stemning på aktiemarkederne, som fik investorerne til at søge tilflugt i mere sikre statsobligationer. Samtidigt var der pres opad på mere usikre rentemarkeder, såsom Emerging Markets samt EURperiferilande. Således var der næppe mange der holdt øje med dagens nøgletal, som da også var af den mere beskedne slags. I euroområdet var der dog ikke den store trøst at finde i Sentix-barometeret for februar, mens Bank of France s erhvervstillidsindeks uventet steg. USA-renter fulgte med nedad, og det skete samtidigt med at markedernes implicitte forventning til Fed-renteforhøjelse til martsrentemødet faldt til 0%. Til morgen fortsætter den dårlige stemning på finansmarkederne i Asien, og renten på den 10-åriges japanske statsobligation går under 0% for første gang nogensinde. USA s statsrenter fulgte med nedad, og vi må nok forvente at trykket vil være yderligere nedad på sikre europæiske renter (herunder tyske og danske) til morgen. Valuta JPY blev styrket pænt mandag i sammenhæng med den risikoaverse stemning der rådede på finansmarkederne som følge af den markant negative udvikling på aktiemarkederne. Således nåede JP det stærkeste niveau mod USD på lige under 115 for første gang i over et år. I første omgang blev EUR styrket i uvejret som rådede på aktiemarkederne, men udviklingen skiftede midt på dagen, hvor investorerne så ud til at foretrække USD frem for EUR. Det blev især tilskrevet at EURperiferilandene så ud til at blive ramt ekstra hårdt på dagens sure finansmarkeder. Sentixbarometeret faldt uventet meget i februar, mens Frankrig BoF-erhvervstillidsindeks uventet steg. Indeksene havde dog næppe den store indvirkning på udviklingen i EUR. EUR endte dog mandagen styrket mod USD, efter at markedernes implicitte forventning til Fed-renteforhøjelse til marts-rentemødet faldt til 0%. GBP blev svækket endnu en dag (både mod EUR og USD). Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 9. februar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Exiqon 4. kvartal Matas 3. kvartal ALK-Abello 4. kvartal Pandora 4. kvartal Vestas 4. kvartal Carlsberg 4. kvartal A.P. Møller-Mærsk 4. kvartal Lundbeck 4. kvartal DSV 4. kvartal Spar Nord 4.kvartal FLSmidth 4.kvartal Topdanmark 4.kvartal GN Store Nord 4.kvartal DFDS 4.kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Jan (r) :00 Danmark Current Account Balance Dec 12b 11b 12.2b 11.1b :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Dec -- 7b 5.6b 5.3b :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Feb :00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY Jan P % -17.2% :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Jan 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.5%/-0.6% %/0.1% :00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Dec 0.5% % :45 Frankrig Budget Balance YTD Dec b :00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Jan :00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Dec :00 USA Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec -0.1% % Kina Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Jan -2.0% % :45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.2%/1.8% %/2.8% :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.4%/0.6% -0.3%/0.8% 0%/0.5% :00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.5%/0.5% -0.3%/0.7% 0%/0.3% :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.1%/2.5% %/2.3% :00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.1%/3.0% 0.3%/ -0.2%/3.0% :30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec 0%/1.0% %/0.9% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 05. feb % :00 USA Fed's Yellen to Appear Before House Financial Services Committ Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Jan b b Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Jan b b :01 UK RICS House Price Balance Jan % :00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Jan :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.4%/-1.3% /-1.4% -0.4%/-1.3% :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 11. feb -0.35% -0.35% -0.35% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 06. feb k :00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 07. feb :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan F -0.8%/0.5% %/0.5% :00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/1.4% %/1.7% :00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.3%/-0.2% %/1.1% :00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q A 0.3%/ 0.3%/ 0.3%/1.6% :30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Jan -1.5%/-6.8% %/-8.2% :30 USA Retail Sales Advance (MoM) Jan 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% :30 USA Retail Sales Control Group (MoM) Jan 0.5% 0.3% -0.3% :00 USA Fed's Dudley Answers Questions at Press Briefing :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb P Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

4 Research disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ), is responsible for the preparation of research reports. SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, in Finland by the Financial Supervisory of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information that SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accept any liability whatsoever for any loss, however it arises, from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been given to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approval the accuracy of the facts presented. The subject company has not been notified of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. The views contained in SHB research reports are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts at this date and are subject to change. There can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. Each analyst identified in this research report also certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report. Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalised investment advice and such reports or opinions should not be the basis for making investment or strategic decisions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. Analyst compensation is not based on specific corporate finance or debt capital markets services. No part of analysts compensation has been, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. From time to time, SHB and/or its affiliates may provide investment banking and other services, including corporate banking services and securities advice, to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. SHB may also seek corporate finance assignments with such companies. We buy and sell securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may also make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees may own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted Guidelines concerning Research which are intended to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank and to resolve any such conflicts by eliminating or mitigating them and/or making such disclosures as may be appropriate. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Information barriers ) on communications between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The Guidelines concerning Research also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines please see the Bank s website the bank/investor relations/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances. For company-specific disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: When distributed in the UK Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. UK customers should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business nor the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) for the protection of private customers apply to this research report and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). When distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). When distributed by HMSI, HMSI takes responsibility for the report. Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number ( ).

5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC