Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 14. september 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens økonomiske begivenheder er få, og vi har blot fokus på euroområdets opgørelse af industriproduktionen i juli. Her venter vi en stigning i på 0,2% m/m, hvormed der ser ud til at komme lidt mere gang i aktiviteten efter de seneste fire måneders skuffende afdæmpede udvikling. Det baserer vi først og fremmest på allerede offentliggjorte produktionsdata fra Tyskland, Frankrig, Italien og Spanien. Her skuffede både Tyskland og især Frankrig, mens Italien og Spanien viste lidt bedre fremgang end ventet. Ser vi på bilindustrien, har denne nok begrænset stigningspotentiale efter at antallet af nyregistreringer af personvogne i juni faldt til det laveste niveau i 10 måneder. Ser vi på de seneste fremadrettede tillidsbarometre for industrien peger de på højere, men stabil udvikling i produktionen. Ellers er det en uge, hvor hovedfokus er på USA og rentemødet i centralbanken torsdag aften. Derudover er der flere interessante nøgletal fra USA i form af detailsalg samt industriproduktion tirsdag, forbrugerpriser samt NAHB-indeks onsdag og påbegyndt boligbyggeri samt byggetilladelser torsdag. Schweiz centralbank afholder også rentemøde torsdag. EUR: Industriproduktion bør vokse igen Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne initialt negativt stemt over for mulig Fedrenteforhøjelse i denne uge, men USA ender op og USD svækkes, mens obligationsrenter falder. Oliepriserne falder på stigende USA-lagre samt Senats-blokering af Republikanernes protest mod Iran-aftale. Skuffende Kina-tal i weekenden medvirker til negativ børsstemning i Asien mandag morgen, hvor USA futures dog peger dog op. USA: Forbrugertilliden fra University of Michigan uventet i største fald siden 2012 og nåede dermed i september det laveste niveau i et år. Det blev især trukket ned af sænkede forventninger til fremtiden, hvilket nok skyldtes faldet på aktiemarkederne i august. Desuden vurderede husholdningerne fremtidig vækst og indkomst lavere, mens vurderingen af inflationen om et år dog steg en tand til 2,9%. Producentpriserne var i august højere end ventet (især kernepriserne), hvilket isoleret set øger muligheden for en positiv overraskelse i forbrugerpriserne i denne uge. Kina: Kreditgivningen var stabil i august, idet årsvækstraten i bankudlånet faldt marginalt fra 15,9% y/y til 15,7%, mens væksten i de samlede udestående kreditter (inkl. såkaldt skyggebankudlån) steg fra 11,8% y/y til 12,1%. Tallene fanger ikke lokalregeringernes obligationsudstedelser, som ellers har taget fart på det seneste. Disse udstedelser erstatter bankudlån, hvorfor det er positivt, at kreditvæksten ikke er faldet trods lavere udlån til provinserne. Offentliggørelsen af de makroøkonomiske aktivitetsindikatorer for august viste, at væksten i industriproduktionen godt nok steg fra 6,0% y/y i juli til 6,1%, men fremgangen var noget mindre end ventet. Værre endnu, så faldt væksten i de faste investeringer overraskende til det laveste niveau siden Der var dog positivt nyt fra detailomsætningen, hvor væksten steg pænt og mere end ventet. Også boligsalget klarede sig fint igen i august, men byggeaktiviteten er endnu ikke for alvor kommet op i gear. Samlet peger tallene på en vis stabilisering af den økonomiske vækst i Kina, men tallene er nok ikke stærke nok til at overbevise de mange Kina-skeptikere om, at Kina som vi venter det undgår et økonomisk kollaps. Dermed kan fortsat Kina-relateret finansiel uro nok ikke undgås førend der kommer mere overbevisende nøgletal. Mandag morgen meddelte myndighederne at man vil forsøge at genoplive en del af de statsejede zombie-virksomheder, herunder via tiltrækning af privat kapital. Myndighederne sænkede mandag kapitalkravet for infrastrukturprojekter. Sverige: BNP-væksten blev revideret en tand op i 3. kvartal til solide +1,1% q/q. Dertil skulle lægges et nyt uventet stort fald i arbejdsløsheden. Således faldt arbejdsløshedsraten til 7,0%, og er dermed den laveste siden begyndelsen af 2009 samt noget lavere end Riksbankens forecast. Riksbanken fokuserer dog pt. mere på inflation og SEK. Norge: Norges Banks økonomiske rapport, baseret på det regionale netværk, viste aftagende vækstforventninger resten af året, således at væksten (i fastlandet) stort set går i stå i 4. kvartal. Det står i kontrast til Norges Banks juni-forecast om vækstfremgang, og på spidsen øger det muligheden for en tidligere rentesænkning end vi venter. Kina-nøgletal uden overbevisende stabilisering Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 14. september 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,65% / indeks 978,95) endte i negativt territorium på ugens sidste handelsdag. Den negative stemning er primært drevet af en afventende holdning forud for rentemødet i den amerikanske centralbank (Fed) i næste uge. Der er fortsat stor divergens mellem andelen af investorer som tror på, at renten bliver hævet på torsdag og det er ikke blevet mindre usikkert efter torsdagens skuffende nøgletal fra den amerikanske centralbank. I bunden af indekset endte TDC (- 7,68% / kurs 37,48) efter meddelelsen om, at fusionsplanerne mellem Telia og Telenor er droppet idet det ikke lykkedes dem at nå til enighed med EU-kommissionen. Dermed ser det ud til at den hårde konkurrence blandt teleselskaberne vil fortsætte. Carlsberg (- 1,03% / kurs 498,30) endte også lavere efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og sænke kursmålet på aktien. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (- 1,27% / kurs ,00) endte også i negativt terræn efter rateindekset viste et fald på 6,4%, mens et nordisk finanshus også var ude og sænke kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte Tryg (+0,85% / kurs 131,10) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Det var småt med vigtige økonomiske begivenheder fredag. Obligationsrenterne satte sig i løbet af dagen, i overensstemmelse med den negative stemning der rådede på aktiemarkederne her. Denne blev især tilknyttet voksende bekymring om muligheden for en renteforhøjelse på torsdagens rentemøde i Federal Reserve. Således var rentefaldet da også til at overse for obligationer med kortere løbetider. De eneste rigtig interessante økonomiske nøgletal kom fra USA i form af producentpriser samt University of Michigans forbrugertillidsindeks. Førstnævnte steg mere end ventet, hvilket på marginalen nok øgede bekymringerne om højere Fed-renter og sendte renter yderligere nedad. Et uventet stort fald i tillidsindekset understøttede derudover fredagens rentefald. Valuta USD blev styrket i løbet af fredagen, hvilket især blev knyttet til øget opmærksomhed om muligheden for en renteforhøjelse på rentemødet i den amerikanske centralbank i denne uge. Kombinationen af et uventet kraftigt fald i Michigan-forbrugertilliden i september samt højere producentpriser mindskede USDstyrkelsen og USD endte dagen lidt svagere mod EUR. SEK blev styrket efter oprevidering af BNP-tal kombineret med et nyt stort og uventet fald i arbejdsløsheden. NOK blev svækket på trods af faldende oliepriser fredag. Det skyldte en uventet nedrevidering af vækstudsigterne for resten af 2015, hvilket kan, medføre en mere lempelig Norges Bank end tidligere antaget. CHF blev svækket til over 1,10 mod EUR for første gang siden revalueringen i januar. Det kan skyldes forventninger til en mere lempelig SNB på torsdagens rentemøde. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 14. september 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.3%/0.6% 0.2%/0.5% -0.4%/1.2% :00 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Statement/Kuroda Press Conference :45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.3%/0.1% %/0.20% :30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.2%/-0.1% %/0.1% :30 UK CPI Core YoY Aug 1.00% % :30 UK ONS House Price YoY Jul % :00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Sep :00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Sep :30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Aug 0.3% % :30 USA Retail Sales Control Group Aug 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% :30 USA Empire Manufacturing Sep :15 USA Industrial Production MoM Aug -0.2% % :15 USA Manufacturing (SIC) Production Aug -0.3% % Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement :30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jul 5.6% % :00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0%/0.2% 0%/0.2% -0.6%/0.2% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Aug F 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 11. sep % :30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.1%/0.2% %/0.2% :30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Aug 0.1%/1.9% %/1.8% :00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Sep :50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Aug B B :35 Japan BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech :30 Schweiz SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range 17. sep -1.25% -1.25% -1.25% :30 Schweiz SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range 17. sep -0.25% -0.25% -0.25% :30 Schweiz SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate 17. sep -0.75% -0.75% -0.75% :30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM/YoY) Aug %/4.2% :30 USA Housing Starts Aug 1160K K :30 USA Building Permits Aug 1150K K :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 12. sep K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 13. sep :00 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Sep :00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 17. sep 0.50% 0.25% 0.25% :00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 17. sep 0.25% 0.00% 0.00% :30 USA Fed's Yellen Holds Press Conference :00 USA Leading Index Aug 0.2% % Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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