Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 11. februar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I dag går Fed-chef Yellen på talerstolen igen i 2. del af hendes halvårlige høring i Kongressen, men her vil budskabet nok ligge sig tæt op af gårsdagens meldinger (se nedenfor). Herudover får vi fra USA tal for udviklingen i antallet af nye ledige, som siden oktober sidste år har haft en stigende tendens, om end der fortsat er tale om et solidt niveau. Det er dog i denne timelig indikator vi vil få det første indtryk af, om den svagere økonomiske aktivitet eventuelt har en afsmittende effekt på arbejdsmarkedet, så det er et nøgletal der er værd at holde øje med. Vi skulle meget gerne se en mere stabil udvikling for at reducere eventuelle bekymringer om en afmatning i beskæftigelsen. Ved dagens rentemøde i den svenske Riksbank venter vi, at Riksbanken tager til genmæle over for den lempeligere tendens vi har set blandt de andre centralbanker globalt. I den forbindelse skal tiltaget især ses som et proaktivt tiltag forud for ECB s ventede udvidede stimulanser på marts-rentemødet. Vi forventer dog ikke en rentenedsættelse på mødet, om end det er et close call - ifølge Bloomberg venter 10 ud af 18 adspurgte en rentenedsættelse på 0,1%-point eller mere. I stedet ser vi det som sandsynligt, at centralbanken sænker sine forventninger til renten så den første renteforhøjelse udskydes til senere end nuværende midt Det vil være bedre i overensstemmelse med markedsforventningerne (figur). Mere interessant, så forventer vi, at Riksbanken vælger at udvide sit opkøbsprogram med SEK 50 mia. udover det nuværende på SEK 200 mia. som ventes tilendebragt midt på året. Endvidere ser vi mulighed for, at Riksbanken vælger at sprede sine opkøb til også at indeholde statslige indeksobligationer, da yderligere opkøb af de normale statsobligationer risikerer at forstyrre likviditeten og dermed prissætningen. Riksbanken vil givet igen erklære sig klar til at foretage direkte interventioner på valutamarkedet, men vi tror ikke på at det er relevant for nuværende, givet at den effektive KIX fortsat er tæt på Riksbankens forecast, om end på den stærke side. US: Svagheder på arbejdsmarkedet? SEK: Sænker Riksbanken sin rentesti? Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i Europa tog revanche fra de seneste dages massive nedtur og endte med stigninger især det danske OMXC20 Cap index steg markant. I USA gik dampen dog af aktiemarkederne, og det blev til en mere flad udvikling i kølvandet på fornyede svagheder i olieprisen. I Asien i nat har der dog igen været tegn på en mere negativ udvikling på de markeder der var åbne. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland endte dagen en smule højere, mens EUR ligger fladt over for USD i forhold til i går morges efter ellers at være blevet svækket i løbet af dagen. Olieprisen udviklede sig mere eller mindre fladt. USA: Fed-chef Yellens halvårige høring i Kongressen var ventet med stor spænding idet det var første gang vi kunne høre hendes syn på den aktuelle økonomiske og finansielle situation siden rentemødet d. 27/1. Der var i forvejen lagt op til at hun stod over for en svær opgave. Vurderingen er dog, at hun balancerede fornuftigt mellem at anerkende bekymringerne udtrykt af markederne over den globale økonomi, Kinas udfordringer samt mindre understøttende finansielle forhold i USA og at Fed er parat til at reagere på disse forhold hvis nødvendigt, mens hun samtidigt fik givet beroligende meldinger om, at de økonomiske udsigter formentlig ikke er helt så negative som markederne ser ud til at frygte for indeværende. Vi tolker budskabet som, at Fed har taget fingeren fra aftrækkeren og at en marts renteforhøjelse virker meget usandsynlig (selv om Yellen ikke fuldstændigt udelukkede det), men givet at de finansielle falder til ro, og situationen i Kina ikke forværres, så er det for indeværende stadig bankens intention at foretage gradvise renteforhøjelser over det kommende år. Dermed er meldingen fortsat meget forskellig fra markedernes opfattelse om, at der ikke kommer nogen renteforhøjelser fra Fed i år. EMU: Frankrig og Italien industriproduktion faldt med hhv. 1,6% m/m og 0,7% m/m i december. Sammen med den meget skuffende udvikling i Tyskland peger det på, at euroområdets industriproduktion faldt med tæt ved 1,0% m/m i december, jf. figur (tallene offentliggøres i morgen). Et sådant udfald vil betyde at industriproduktionen i euroområdet faldt med 0,3% q/q i 4. kvartal efter en stigning på 0,2% i kvartalet før. På den baggrund har vi nedjusteret vores forventning til BNP-væksten i euroområdet i 4. kvartal fra 0,3% q/q til 0,2% q/q (kommer også i morgen). UK: Industriproduktionen skuffede med et fald på 1,1% m/m i december. Danmark: Forbrugerpriserne faldt med 0,4% m/m i december, hvilket var en anelse mere end vi havde ventet. Det skyldtes især et større sæsonmæssigt fald i priserne på beklædning end ventet. Årsstigningstakten trak dog i vejret fra nedreviderede 0,4% til 0,6%, men må dog fortsat siges at være historisk lav. Norge: Kerneinflationen var 3,0% y/y i januar, hvilket var uændret fra måneden før. Den underliggende inflation holdes oppe af den svagere NOK, men denne effekt burde begynde at ebbe ud når vi når hen i 2. halvår givet at NOK ikke svækkes yderligere. Udviklingen var på linje med Norges Banks forventninger. EMU: Nationale data peger på fald i IP For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. februar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+4,00% / indeks 918,82) havde en virkelig god dag i går. Den pæne stigning kom i kølvandet på de seneste handelsdage som har budt på kraftige fald. Det danske marked var præget af en lang række regnskabsrapporteringer. I toppen af indekset endte DSV (+9,32% / kurs 252,20) der rapporterede et 4. kvartalsregnskab der overgik markedets forventninger på stort set samtlige regnskabsposter. Herudover var DSVs forventninger (guidance) til regnskabsåret 2016 på niveau med markedets forventninger. Med hensyn til integrationen af UTi så venter DSV synergigevinster på 1,5 mia. kr. og tilsvarende restruktureringsomkostninger på 1,5 mia. kr. over de næste 2 år. Nogle investorer havde formentligt frygtet, at dette kunne have set værre ud. I bunden af indekset endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-3,55% / kurs 7875,00) der rapporterede et 4. kvartalsregnskab der ikke kunne leve op til markedets forventninger. Regnskabet var tynget af store nedskrivninger i oliedivisionen, men selv renset for dette skuffede regnskabet. Selskabets guidance som lyder på et fald i overskuddet på væsentligt under de 3,1 mia. USD som Mærsk opnåede i 2015, var også skuffende for markedet. Renter Efter en periode med store aktiekursfald vendte risikovilligheden tilbage på de finansielle markeder, og det medvirkede til at trække lidt op i de danske og tyske obligationsrenter fra morgenstunden. Svage tal for industriproduktionen i Frankrig og Tyskland har dog formentligt dæmpet rentestigningerne, og markederne var i løbet af dagen nok også lidt afventende forud for Fed-chef Yellens halvårlige høring i Kongressen. Her anerkendte Yellen de øgede usikkerhed om den globale økonomi samt den seneste markedsuro mulige negative afsmitning på de globale udsigter, men udtrykte dog også en vis optimisme omkring de økonomiske udsigter. Budskabet var således, at Fed stadig har til hensigt at sætte renten gradvist i vejret og hun afviste ikke en marts renteforhøjelse helt selv om det for indeværende virker usandsynligt. Obligationsrenterne reagerede umiddelbart med stigninger oven på meldingen fra Fed men faldt tilbage igen efterfølgende i takt med faldende oliepriser samt at lidt af dampen gik ud af aktiemarkederne. De amerikanske renter faldt således efter europæisk lukketid, og der er udsigt til at vi kan se faldende renter i Europa fra morgenstunden og formentlig også faldende aktiemarkeder. Valuta EUR blev fra morgenstunden svækket over for USD på en dag hvor risikovilligheden i hvert fald for en stund vendte tilbage på de finansielle markeder. Svage tal for industriproduktionen i Frankrig og Tyskland kan også have medvirket til svaghederne i EUR, men formentlig var det også udsigten til Fed-chef Yellens halvårlige høring i Kongressen der trak udviklingen. Meldingen fra Yellen om, at Fed stadig forventer at hæve renten gradvist trak i første omgang yderligere op i USD over for EUR, men efterfølgende gik dampen af USD, som her til morgen således ligger stort set uændret over for EUR i forhold til i går morges. Således ser meldingen fra Fed om at renteforhøjelser kan blive sat på stand-by af fortsat finansiel uro eller øgede problemer i Kina ud til at have vejet mere. Aftagende risikovillighed i løbet af aftenen og natten kan også have vejet på USD, og det gav også anledning til en styrkelse af JPY over for USD. GBP blev styrket over for EUR trods skuffende britisk industriproduktion. BRL blev svækket over for USD efter at markedet genåbnede fra helligdage i forbindelse med karnevallet. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. februar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 08/02/16 Exiqon 4. kvartal 09/02/16 Matas 3. kvartal 09/02/16 ALK-Abello 4. kvartal 09/02/16 Pandora 4. kvartal 09/02/16 Vestas 4. kvartal 10/02/16 Carlsberg 4. kvartal 10/02/16 A.P. Møller-Mærsk 4. kvartal 10/02/16 Lundbeck 4. kvartal 10/02/16 DSV 4. kvartal 10/02/16 Spar Nord 4.kvartal 11/02/16 FLSmidth 4.kvartal 11/02/16 Topdanmark 4.kvartal 12/02/16 GN Store Nord 4.kvartal 12/02/16 DFDS 4.kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 08/02/16 08:30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Jan (r) /02/16 09:00 Danmark Current Account Balance Dec 12b 11b 12.2b 11.1b 08/02/16 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Dec -- 7b 5.6b 5.3b 08/02/16 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Feb /02/16 07:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY Jan P % -17.2% 09/02/16 07:45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Jan 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 09/02/16 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.5%/-0.6% %/0.1% -1.2%/-2.2% 09/02/16 08:00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Dec 0.5% % -1.6% 09/02/16 08:45 Frankrig Budget Balance YTD Dec b -70.5b 09/02/16 12:00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Jan /02/16 16:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Dec (r) /02/16 16:00 USA Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec -0.1% %(r) -0.1% 10/02/16 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.3%/1.7% %/3.0% -1.6%/-0.7% 10/02/16 09:00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.4%/0.6% -0.3%/0.8% -0.1%/0.4% -0.4%/0.6% 10/02/16 09:00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.5%/0.5% -0.3%/0.7% -0.1%/0.3% -0.5%/0.5% 10/02/16 10:00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.0%/2.4% %/2.3% 0.6%/3.0% 10/02/16 10:00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.0%/3.0% /3.0% -0.2%/3.0% -0.1%/3.0% 10/02/16 10:00 Italien Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.3%/1.4% %/1.1% -0.7%/-1.0% 10/02/16 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.1%/1.0% %/0.7% -1.1%/-0.4% 10/02/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 05. Feb % 9.3% 10/02/16 16:00 USA Fed's Yellen Speaks Before House Financial Services Committe Kina Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Jan -2.0% % Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Jan b b Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Jan b b 11/02/16 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Jan 52% -- 50% 49% 11/02/16 08:00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Jan 4.3% % 11/02/16 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.4%/-1.3% /-1.4% -0.4%/-1.3% 11/02/16 09:30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 11. Feb -0.45% -0.35% -0.35% 11/02/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 06. Feb 280k k 11/02/16 15:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels 11/02/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 07. Feb /02/16 16:00 USA Fed's Yellen Speaks Before Senate Banking Committe 11/02/16 16:30 Holland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/1.3% %/1.9% 12/02/16 08:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan F -0.8%/0.5% %/0.5% 12/02/16 08:00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/1.4% %/1.7% 12/02/16 10:00 Italien GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/1.2% %/0.8% 12/02/16 11:00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.3%/0.8% -0.9%/ %/1.1% 12/02/16 11:00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q A 0.3%/1.5% 0.2%/-- 0.3%/1.6% 12/02/16 14:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Jan -1.5%/-6.8% %/-8.2% 12/02/16 14:30 USA Retail Sales Advance (MoM) Jan 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% 12/02/16 14:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group (MoM) Jan 0.3% 0.3% -0.3% 12/02/16 16:00 USA Fed's Dudley Answers Questions at Press Briefing 12/02/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb P Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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