Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 10. marts 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus På rentemødet i januar lovede ECB mere eller mindre at man vil levere nye lempelsestiltag på dagens møde. Behovet for stimulans er endvidere blevet forstærket af den finansielle uro og stigende globale vækstfrygt som har trukket ned i stemningsbarometrene for økonomien siden rentemødet i januar. Samtidigt er inflationen vendt tilbage til negativt territorium hurtigere end de fleste havde forventet. Kerneinflationen er desuden faldet mere end ventet, hvilket understøtter ECB s bekymringer om langsigtede anden runde-effekter som følge af faldet i energipriserne. I forbindelse med rentemødet vil ECB s økonomiske stab således sandsynligvis på ny nedjustere prognoserne for vækst og inflation. Det åbne spørgsmål er dog hvad ECB rent faktisk har tænkt sig at levere. Vi forventer en rentenedsættelse på 0,10%-point til -0,4% og en forøgelse af de månedlige QE-opkøb på EUR 20 mia. til i alt EUR 80 mia. Dette er dog allerede indpriset i markederne som et minimum, og kan derfor godt skuffe investorerne. Mulige ændringer i indlånsrente-systemet og/eller sammensætning af QEprogrammet kan være afgørende for at kompensere for dette. Eventuelt kan ECB også sænke renten mere, og kompensere bankerne for dette med et differentieret system for indlånsrenter. Endvidere kunne ECB imødekomme den stigende tvivl om hvorvidt der overhovedet er obligationer nok til at ECB kan udvide QE-programmet ved at udvide typen af aktivklasser som er berettiget til opkøb, men vi er dog ikke sikre på at ECB er klar til at tage dette skridt. Spekulationer om at løsne den nationale fordelingsnøgle i ECB s opkøbsprogram er endda blevet luftet som en mulighed på det seneste, men dette har nogen politiske og forfatningsmæssige udfordringer som nok skal løses før det bliver aktuelt. Samlet set ser vi en vis risiko for, at ECB vil have vanskeligheder med at opfylde markedernes forventninger. Vores bekymring er endvidere, at det kan begynde at blive mere og mere klart, at de tilgængelige monetære værktøjer er begrænsede og måske svære at benytte politisk og i praksis. Nationalbanken ventes at holde renten i ro, hvis ECB sænker renten med 0,1%- point som vi venter det, og dermed indsnævre renteforskellen til ECB s indlånsrente som tilfældet også var det i december. Skulle ECB overraske med en større rentenedsættelse eller mere vidtrækkende ikke-konventionelle lempelser, er det dog muligt, at Nationalbanken vil sætte renten ned med 0,1%-point. De danske forbrugerpriser ventes at være steget med 0,7% m/m, hvor især den årlige justering af huslejerne trækker op. Stigende priser på fødevarer og hoteller efter store fald i januar ventes også at trække op, mens lavere energipriser trækker i den anden retning. Samlet venter vi en stigning i forbrugerpriserne på 0,7% m/m, som vil trække inflationsraten ned fra 0,6% til 0,3%. Den lavere inflationstakt skyldes primært et lavere bidrag fra huslejereguleringen samt basiseffekter fra det seneste fald i benzinpriserne. Vi vil også holde øje med om eksporten vil fortsætte de positive takter fra de seneste måneder efter et ellers generelt trist Vi venter en ny lille stigning i vareeksporten, men ser stadig udfordringer forude. Importen ventes dog også at være steget, hvormed overskuddet på handelsbalancen ses uændret på 5,3 mia. kr. Overskuddet på betalingsbalancen ventes at være faldet, til et fortsat solidt niveau på 9 mia. kr. Tysklands eksport ventes at være steget i januar, efter det store fald i december. Det ville også være i tråd med den stigning vi så i industriproduktionen. Udsigterne for tysk eksport ses dog stadig ikke at være alt for lyse i lyset af svag global vækst. Industriproduktionen i Frankrig ventes at have fulgt den generelle tendens til et rebound i januar efter en svag udvikling i julemåneden. ECB: Inflationen har allerede skuffet på nedsiden ECB: Minimum 10 bp rentenedsættele er indpriset Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder endte med stigninger på en dag uden de store nøgletal, men med stigende oliepriser. De amerikanske aktier endte også højere, mens stemningen i Asien ligeledes har været positiv om end de kinesiske markeder falder. EUR ligger stort set uændret over for USD i forhold til i går morges. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland endte dagen højere. Kina: Inflationen steg overraskende fra 1,8% til 2,3% i februar, hvor der var ventet en flad udvikling. Det var især stigende fødevarepriser der stod bag som følge af koldt vejr og stigende efterspørgsel i forbindelse med fejringen af det kinesiske nytår. Nonfood inflationen faldt fra 1,2% til 1,0%. Ikke desto mindre kan den højere inflation give lidt bekymringer om hvorvidt det kan reducere mulighederne for stimulans. Inflationen ventes dog at aftage noget igen i de kommende måneder. USA: Antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån til huskøb steg med 4,2%, og ligger mere end 30% højere end i samme periode sidste år. Frankrig: Nationalbankens erhvervstillid for fremstillingssektoren faldt fra 101 til 98 i februar, hvilket var det største månedlige fald siden januar Faldet er en indikation på, at den svagere globale vækst truer det spæde opsving i fransk økonomi, hvor især en opbremsning i ordrerne fra udlandet vækker bekymring. Nationalbanken nedjusterede endvidere dens skøn for BNP-væksten i Q1 fra 0,4% til 0,3% q/q. UK: Efter tre måneder med tilbagegang steg fremstillingssektorens produktion med 0,7% m/m. Det var væsentligt stærkere end ventet i markedet, men vi mener dog fortsat ikke at det er startskuddet til et stærkere 2016 for fremstillingssektoren efter et svagt 2015, hvor udsigterne hæmmes af svag global vækst og lave oliepriser, der vil påvirke produktionen i Nordsøen samt usikkerhed fra Brexit -afstemningen. Den seneste tids svækkelse af GBP kan dog muligvis give et løft senere på året. For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 10. marts 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske indeks OMXC20 CAP (+0,21% / indeks 1001,83) sluttede gårsdagens handel i positivt terræn på en dag med relativt få selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Stemningen var generelt set afventende forud for rentemødet i den europæiske centralbank (ECB) i eftermiddag. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte blandt andet DSV (+2,61% / kurs 282,60) efter der blev offentliggjort Øresundstrafiktal for februar, som viste at antallet af lastbiler der krydsede broen steg med 9,4% relativt til februar måned sidste år. I den sammenhæng kan det desuden nævnes at lastbiltrafikken over Storebælt også steg pænt i februar måned (+8,92%). Nordea (+2,17% / kurs 69,95) havde også en god dag på trods af, at den svenske storbank SEB sænkede deres kursmål på aktien. Anbefalingen blev dog fastholdt på Køb. Renter Der var ikke de store nøgletal til at sætte retningspilen for obligationsmarkederne, hvor et fald i fransk erhvervstillid ikke så ud til at kunne rykke ved en generel opadgående tendens i renterne. Stigende oliepriser kan have medvirket til rentestigningerne, men de skal muligvis også ses i lyset af udsigten til ECB-mødet i dag og en vis positionering forud for dette muligvis med skuffelsen fra ECB i december i baghovedet, hvor banken ikke formåede at leve op til de massive forventninger om ny stimulans der var indpriset i markedet på det tidspunkt. En generel risk-on stemning på aktiemarkederne kan dog også have medvirket til at reducere efterspørgslen efter sikker havn papirerne. I nat fik vi tal der viste en større stigning end ventet i den kinesiske inflation, som har givet anledning til negativ stemning på de kinesiske aktiemarkeder. Dagen i dag vil formentlig være præget af lidt nervøsitet op til medlingerne fra ECb i eftermiddag Valuta EUR svingede op og ned over for USD i løbet af i går, hvor udsigten til dagens rentemøde i ECB formentlig giver anledning til nervøsitet. Der var ingen nøgletal af betydning til at sætte retningspilen fra hverken USA eller euroområdet. Et større fald end ventet i fransk erhvervstillid kan have ført til lidt svækkelse, men efter et par op- og nedture ligger EUR her til morgen stort set uændret over for USD i forhold til i går morges. Pæne tal for industriproduktionen i UK gav anledning til lidt styrkelse af GBP over for EUR, men pundet tabte dog pusten igen i løbet af dagen. JPY blev dog svækket over for USD på en dag med stigende aktiekurser. Højere oliepriser og relativt optimistiske meldinger fra Bank of Canada efter at de holdt renten i ro har sendt CAD stærkere. Højere oliepriser var i det hele taget gunstig for råvareproducerende landes valutaer om end NZD blev svækket efter en overraskende rentenedsættelse. Off-shore yuan faldt for anden dag i træk efter at den kinesiske centralbank sænkede den daglige referencekurs til det laveste i en uge og på spekulationer om at renten vil blive sat ned for at styrke økonomien. I nat fik vi dog også højere tal for den kinesiske inflation end ventet, som initialt muligvis kan dæmpe forventningerne til ny stimulans. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 10. marts 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 07/03/16 Bavarian Nordic A/S 4. kvartal 08/03/16 Brodrene Hartmann A/S 4. kvartal 08/03/16 Torm A/S 4. kvartal 09/03/16 Jeudan A/S 4. kvartal 09/03/16 Veloxis Pharmaceuticals A/S 4. kvartal 10/03/16 Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S 4. kvartal 10/03/16 Mols-Linien A/S 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 07/03/16 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.3%/0.0% %/-2.2%(r) -0.1%/1.1% 07/03/16 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) Jan -0.5% -2.0% 3.4% 2.8% 07/03/16 09:00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Feb b 07/03/16 09:10 Kina Foreign Reserves Feb $3190.0b -- $3230.9b $3202.3b 07/03/16 10:00 Norge Ind Prod Manufacturing (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.1%/ %/ %/-7.7% -1.0%/-6.3% 07/03/16 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Mar /03/16 15:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels 07/03/16 19:00 USA Fed's Fischer and Brainard Speaks 07/03/16 21:00 USA Consumer Credit Jan $17.000b -- $21.384b $10.538b 08/03/16 Kina Trade Balance Feb $51.00b -- $63.29b $32.59b 08/03/16 Kina Exports (YoY) Feb -14.5% % -20.6% 08/03/16 Kina Imports (YoY) Feb -12.0% % -13.8% 08/03/16 00:50 Japan GDP SA (QoQ) 4Q F -0.4% % -0.3% 08/03/16 07:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Feb /03/16 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/-1.6% %/-1.3%(r) 3.3%/ 08/03/16 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.1%/-1.1% %/-1.3% 0.2%/-0.8% 08/03/16 11:00 EMU GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.3%/1.5% %/1.5% 0.3%/1.6% 08/03/16 12:00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb /03/16 08:30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Feb /03/16 10:30 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.2%/-0.7% %/-1.7% 0.7%/-0.1% 09/03/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 04. Mar % 0.2% Mar Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Feb b b Mar Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Feb b b 10/03/16 02:30 Kina CPI (YoY) Feb 1.8% % 2.3% 10/03/16 02:30 Kina PPI (YoY) Feb -4.9% % -4.9% 10/03/16 08:00 Tyskland Trade Balance Jan 17.0b b 10/03/16 08:00 Tyskland Exports/Imports SA (MoM) Jan 0.8%/0.8% %/-1.6% 10/03/16 08:00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Feb % 10/03/16 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.5%/1.3% %/0.5% 10/03/16 09:00 Danmark Current Account (Seasonally Adjusted) Jan b 11.9b 10/03/16 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jan b 5.3b 10/03/16 09:00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.8%/0.4% 0.7%/0.3% -0.4%/0.6% 10/03/16 09:00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb --/0.3% 0.6%/0.2% -0.5%/0.4% 10/03/16 10:00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.4%/3.0% %/3.0% 10/03/16 10:00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.7%/3.1% -/3.1% -0.1%/3.0% 10/03/16 13:45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 10. Mar 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 10/03/16 13:45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 10. Mar -0.40% -0.40% -0.30% 10/03/16 13:45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 10. Mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 10/03/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 05. Mar 275k k 10/03/16 14:30 USA Continuing Claims 27. Feb 2252k k 10/03/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06. Mar /03/16 08:00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb F 0.4%/-0.2% %/-0.2% 11/03/16 09:30 Sverige Average House Prices Feb m Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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