Global Makroøkonomi: Stadig luft i opsvinget SEB X-asset Research Maj 2015
Opsvinget stadig på sporet trods vaklen i H2-2014 Post-2012 ekspansionen intakt trods kraftig af geopolitisk uro i 2014 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 2
Olie: inflation kollapset med olieprisfaldet væksten får boost Skifer-olie + reetablering af Mellemøstlig udbud = priskrig. Afventer væksteffekten 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 3
1. Amerikansk vækst i stå i 1. kvartal er det bekymrende? Bærer en hård vinter, den stærke dollar eller faldet i olieprisen skylden? 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 4
1. Olieprisfaldet koster investeringer på kort sigt Men der vindes mere på karrusellerne end der tabes på gyngerne men timing afviger 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 5
1. Jobvæksten matcher fint høj optimisme i servicesektoren Trendmæssigt er væksten I beskæftigelsen stærk. Peger ikke på dybere problemer? 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 6
1. Burde Federal Reserve hæve renterne nu? Bredere arbejdsløshedsmål indikerer, at økonomien endnu ikke er tilbage på sporet 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 7
1. Vil renteforhøjelserne ødelægger markedsstemningen? Markedets forventning til fremtidige renter er vidt forskellig fra Feds egne tanker Fed s forventning til Centralbankrenten pr ultimo 2017 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset weekly market perspective 8
2. Eurozonen: Endelig fører ECB ekstraordinær pengepolitik ECB kom endelig i gang med QE. Lavere renter (trods seneste stigning) & svagere Euro 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 9
2. Men bedringen var allerede undervejs inden ECB s QE Fald i udlånsrenter. På det seneste er også Italien kommet med 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 10
2. Bankerne mere villige til at låne ud Bankudlåns-Survey viser afgørende fundamentale forbedringer i Europa 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 11
2. Banksystemet kan hjælpe det indenlandske opsving på vej Forbruget nærmer sig vækstraterne fra før krisen 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 12
2. Politiske risici bliver ved at spøge Grækenland i fokus, men generelt problem. Dybe kriser højner risiko for destabilisering 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset weekly market perspective 13
3. Emerging Markets fra det nye sort til et hul i jorden? Aktiemarkedet har foretaget en langvarig revurdering af EM, men hvad med fremtiden? 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset weekly market perspective 14
3. EM-eksport til både vesten og til Kina stadig svag Den stagnerende eksport viser regionens manglende dynamik siden 2011 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset weekly market perspective 15
3. Kina har svært ved at nå egne målsætninger Q1 svaghed øger sandsynligheden for mere stimulans men virker det stadig? 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 16
3. Officielle renter & reservekrav sænket + frisk likviditet Svag vækst få myndighederne til at skubbe hårdere på væksten 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 17
3. Kina har svært ved at finde en balanceret vækstmodel Gæld til BNP vokser stadig kraftigt i kina til myndighedernes bekymring 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 18
3. EM-lande udsatte pga. Kina & den amerikanske centralbank Snarlig rentestigning i USA kan fremtvinge kapitalflugt og ny kreditklemme 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 19
Strukturelle udfordringer: investeringsproblem? Profitrate på historiske højder, men investeringsaktiviteten svag. Godt for kreditorerne! 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 20
Strukturelt: Tingene ser ikke just normale ud? Ekstrem pengepolitik, ultra-lave renter - et miljø der øger efterspørgsel efter alternativ 2015-05-27 SEB X-asset strategy update 21
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