Workshop for virksomheder& organisationer indenforvedvarendeenergi, 31.05.2012 Jan Frederic Vetter, Wolfgang Gerstlberger & Alex Pedrosa Universität Flensburg, Syddansk Universitet
1. Dagens formål Dagsorden 2. Scenarioudvikling med Delphi informationer 3. dataindsamling i FURGY projekt 4. Ekspert-Debat: 1. Delphi runde 5. De næsteskridt 6. Spørgsmålfor voresdebatidag
Dagensformål At starteen dialog på vej mod en vedvarende energiregion Syddanmark / Schleswig-Holstein baseret bl.a. på resultater fra den 1. Delphi runde At diskutere resultaterne fra ekspert-debat (1. Delphi runde) At få input til den 2. Delphi runde
FURGY Delphi-Proces
Scenarioudviklingmed Deplhiinformationer Tids-Fokus: 20 år Region: Syd-DK & SH Industri: Vedvarende Energi Virksomheder: SME www.furgy.eu
DataindsamlingiFURGY projekt 1 st virksomhedsundersøgelse(forår2010) Ekspert interviews (2011) Undersøgelse indenfor kommuner(forår 2011) Delphi Expert-Study: 2 runder (2. runde: Consensus) Forskellige SCENARIER
Delphi EkspertSpørgeskema (1. runde) Paper and online Questionaire (data collection finished)
FURGY Delphi respondenterne
Respondenterne1 st Delphi Runde 135 questionnaires returned 83 (61%) from Schleswig-Holstein & 52 (39%) from Denmark 34% are top managers & 13% (project) managers
Respondenterne1 st Delphi Runde Participating experts-field of activity 5% 9% 27% R&D Consulting Marketing/ sales 15% Policy
Respondenterne1 st Delphi Runde Participating experts- employed by 5% 7% Company 35% Universities/ research institutes Asociations 18% public sector
Respondenterne1 st Delphi Runde
Resultater
1. Delphi runde: Ekspert-Debat Politik & Økonomi Tidshorisont Økonomiske potentialer Grænseover -skridende samarbejde forsknings og udviklings koordinering Vigtighed
Økonomisk Potential 1: vindenergi virksomheder
Økonomisk Potential 2: bioenergi virksomheder
Økonomisk Potential 3: solenergi virksomheder
Alle virksomheder i FURGY region
Resultater af virksomhedsundersøglese
Resultater afundersøgleseindenforkommuner Importance of Renewable Energy projects for the municipality (very important and important in %) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 83,3 73,9 Denmark Schleswig-Holstein
Eksemplariske resultater undersøglese indenfor kommuner Direct participation in Renewable Energy projects (in %) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 83,3 Stadtwerke 48,9 English / Danish Version Denmark!! Schleswig-Holstein
Resultater af1. Delphi runde
Ekspert-debat: Politik & Økonomi - Missing investments in renewable energy - (Regional) Power grid not developed sufficiently - Population does not accept further implementation of renewable energy generation plants - Sufficient investments for renewable energy - Renewable energy can be fully implemented (sufficient capacities) - Population & other partners engage in renewable energy projects
Ekspert-debat: forsknings og udviklings koordinering - Missing experts in the region - Lacking technological know-how in the region - Research outcome not applicable in practice - Missing industry and public research funding for renewable energy R&D - Strong research focus on renewable energy in the region - Industry and public research is well developed and connected - Inspiring environment for identifying new renewable energy opportunities
Ekspert-debat: Grænseoverskridende samarbejde - Missing willingness to collaborate across the board - Lacking identification with the cross-border region - Social, legal & technical norms hamper collaboration - Recognizing the region as a unique opportunity to connect north Europe with central Europe - Regional financial development will force collaborations across the boarder in renewable energy
De næsteskridt 2. Delphi runde Resumé af alle undersøgelser Udvikling af forskellige scenarier Mapping Tool : videreudvikling
Muligespørgsmålfor voresdiskussionidag Hvordankanman finansierepermanent grænseoverskridende samarbejde (EU, forening osv.) indenfor vedværende energi? Er der brug for nye grænseoverskridende institutioner? Hvad skal være i fokus? (teknologisk & økonomisk) Hvem skal være ansvarlig / drive processen?
Mange takfor i dag! Kontakt: Wolfgang Gerstlberger & Alex Pedrosa Syddansk Universitet Institut for Marketing & Management Email: woge@sam.sdu.dk www.furgy.eu Jan Vetter Universität Flensburg Energie- und Ressourcenwirtschaft Email: jan.vetter@uni-flensburg
Back Up
Political framework officialgoals 035% Share of renewable energy of the energy sector 030% 025% 020% % 015% 010% 005% 000% EU Germany Denmark 2011 2020 EU 2050: 80-95% CO 2 -emission reduction Germany 2020: min. 35% renewable energy of gross electricity production Denmark 2020: 51% renewable energy of gross electricity production Massive increasein renewableenergyexpected!
1. Delphi runde: Vigtigeulfordringer (Technological) Substitution Major technological know-how comes from outside Offshore, ports, installation+integration Education infrastructure (universities, colleges, handicraft) do it economically (acceptable) Technological border (e.g. biomass plants) Incomplete value chains Relatively small industrial base Fluctuating supply Missinginvestmentsin net-capacities New energy storage concepts needed do it(politically) acceptable New space needed New formsof+ morecitizen involvment needed (e.g. wind parks)
Produktionskoster for vedværende energi