Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus

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1 13. februar 2015 Macro Research Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus Uge 8 Forhandlingerne med Grækenland kan blive en gyser Ugen der gik Aktiemarkederne havde pilen svagt opad i denne uge, mens statsrenterne kravlede lidt ned. De finansielle markeder var i ugens løb blandt andet præget af, at den nytiltrådte græske regering viste sig alligevel at stå fast på mange af sine valgløfter vedrørende gældseftergivelse. Samtidig strammede han retorikken, og krævede blandt andet lån ydet til det tyske nazi-regime under 2. verdenskrig tilbagebetalt. På det ekstraordinære møde blandt eurolandenes finansministre nåede man ikke til enighed om en aftale om finansiel støtte til Grækenland. Til gengæld blev der indgået aftale om en våbenhvile i Ukraine, men vi har endnu til gode at se, om våbenhvilen holder. Meget stærk arbejdsmarkedsrapport fra USA Beskæftigelsen uden for landbruget i USA steg med i januar. Det var bedre end ventet, og samtidig blev de to foregående måneder oprevideret markant (de årlige datarevisioner inkorporeres i januar-tallene). Dermed er beskæftigelsesfremgangen i de seneste tre måneder den højeste tre-måneders fremgang siden Ledigheden skuffede lidt ved at stige til 5,7% fra 5,6% i december, men det opvejedes af at lønvæksten endelig ser ud til at være kommet i gang. Således steg de gennemsnitlige timelønninger med 0,5% fra december til januar, den største månedlige stigning i seks år. Eurområdets BNP en tand stærkere end ventet BNP i euroområdet samlet set voksede med 0,3% q/q i 4. kvartal. Der var ventet en vækst på 0,2% q/q. Det var især Tyskland, som overraskede positivt med en fremgang på hele 0,7%, og også Spaniens økonomi gik flot frem. Til gengæld voksede fransk BNP kun med 0,1%, og italiensk BNP var fladt. Dermed er italiensk BNP ikke vokset i tre og et halvt år. Riksbanken melder sig ind i negativ-rente-klubben Riksbanken valgte i den forgangne uge at træde ind i den pengepolitiske lempelseskamp, der for alvor blev skudt i gang af ECB's beslutning om et kæmpe opkøbsprogram. Således reducerede Riksbanken repo-renten fra 0% til -0,1% og annoncerede samtidigt, at banken ligeledes vil kaste sig ud i opkøb af statsobligationer. Endvidere blev timingen af en eventuel første renteforhøjelse udskudt til tidligst 2. halvår 2016, og banken slog fast, at den er parat til at handle yderligere med kort varsel. Bank of England sender dueagtige signaler... På rentemødet i forrige uge holdt Bank of England renten og størrelsen på opkøbsprogrammet uændret. Referatet af mødet blev offentliggjort i denne uge, og det viste, at banken er klar til flere stimulanser hvis der opstår risiko på nedsiden for inflationen. Selv en rentenedsættelse blev nævnt som en mulighed. Stærkt amerikansk arbejdsmarked Massiv tysk BNP-fremgang Så er svensk rente også negativ For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Ugen der kommer USA: Referat fra seneste Fed-møde på vej Ugens vigtigste amerikanske begivenhed bliver nok offentliggørelsen på onsdag af referatet af seneste FOMC-møde i Den amerikanske centralbank, Fed. På mødet fastholdt Fed som ventet meldingen om at den kan være tålmodig (patient) med hensyn til at påbegynde en normalisering af pengepolitikkens stramningsgrad. Det betyder, at en renteforhøjelse tidligst kan komme på banen på rentemødet i juni. Banken fastholdt også, at beslutningen om hvornår renten skal sættes i vejret vil være afhængig af udviklingen i de økonomiske nøgletal. Referatet vil nok ikke indeholde meget ny information. Siden mødet er arbejdsmarkedsrapporten for januar blevet offentlig, og den viste stærk beskæftigelsesfremgang i januar og oprevideringer af de foregående måneder. Samtidig var der endelig tegn på at lønvæksten er ved at tage til. Hvis arbejdsmarkedet i de kommende måneder fortsætter med at udvikle sig stærkt vil det formentlig betyde at en renteforhøjelse kommer tidligere end hvad markedet pt. indpriser (ultimo 2015), og vi vil stadig ikke udelukke at det vil ske i juni. USA: Industriproduktion ventes fladt Onsdag offentliggøres industriproduktionen for januar, hvor vi venter nul-vækst efter et fald på 0,1% m/m i december. Konsensusestimatet er en fremgang på 0,4% m/m. Vores forventning om svag udvikling bygger vi især på det relativt store fald i ISM for fremstillingssektoren, som fandt sted i januar. Vi får også indikatorer på udviklingen i industrien i februar i denne uge i form af de regionale industriaktivitetsindikatorer fra henholdsvis Philadelphia og New York (Empire). Førstnævnte ventes at være gået lidt frem og sidstnævnte lidt tilbage. Euroområdet: PMI-tal i skyggen af Grækenland De europæiske finansielle markeder vil nok i den kommende uge især lade sig styre af udviklingen i Grækenland. Det lykkedes ikke eurogruppens finansministre at blive enige om en løsning på Grækenlands finansieringsproblemer på det ekstraordinære møde i denne uge. Rent faktisk blev man ikke engang enige om en fælles udtalelse. Mandag holdes det ordinære og formelle eurogruppemøde, hvor man forhåbentlig kommer tættere på en aftale. 28. februar udløber Grækenlands nuværende låneaftale. Euroområdet: PMI langsomt på vej opad På nøgletalsfronten er ugens vigtigste begivenhed flashestimaterne for PMI-indikatorerne, som kommer fredag. EURsvækkelsen og de lavere renter som følge af ECB s udmelding om det kommende opkøbsprogram har nok understøttet industritilliden, og fremstillings-pmi ventes af konsensus at være steget til 51,4 i februar fra 51,0 i januar. Også service-pmi og dermed den sammensatte PMI-indikator (composite) ventes at være gået lidt frem. Inden PMI får vi tirsdag tysk ZEW investortillid. De adspurgte investorer og analytikere har historisk reageret kraftigt på udsving på de finansielle markeder, så aktiekursstigninger, EURsvækkelse og olieprisfald taler for en markant fremgang i februar. De seneste dages fornyede Grækenland-uro er derimod nok ikke afspejlet i ZEW. 13. februar

3 Kina: Boligmarkedskorrektionen er ikke slut Kina offentliggør boligpriser tidligt tirsdag morgen. Den månedlige prisstigningstakt er blevet mindre negativ de seneste måneder, og nærmer sig positiv vækst. Men andre indikatorer som fx salget af ejendomme peger ikke på, at ejendomsmarkedet er ved at have overstået den igangværende korrektion (se figur), og vi venter at fremgangen i prisstigningstakten er aftaget i januar. Danmark: Privatforbruget lidt sløjt fra start i det nye år Givet det kontinuerte styrkelsespres på den danske krone, vil der naturligvis fortsat være stor fokus på Nationalbanken og eventuelle udmeldinger fra denne i løbet af ugen. I sidste uge overraskede Nationalbanken ved ikke at sænke renten, trods en massiv opbygning af valutareserven, og der spekuleres på den baggrund i om banken har lagt sin strategi om. Vi vil dog ikke udelukke at der kan komme flere rentenedsættelser, og heller ikke at banken kan tage andre ukonventionelle tiltag i brug. Herudover er det privatforbruget der er i fokus, med tal for forbrugertilliden (torsdag) og detailsalget (fredag). Vi venter at forbrugertilliden vil være faldet fra 9,0 til 8,0 i februar. Der er dog et relativt stort negativt sæsonelement i udviklingen i kølvandet på januarudsalget, der traditionelt øger vurderingen af fordelagtigheden af at købe større forbrugsgoder. Renset for sæsonudsving er der tale om en lille stigning i forbrugertilliden fra 7,9 til 8,6. De lave energipriser samt de ekstremt lave renter og den fortsatte bedring på boligmarkedet i hvert fald i visse dele af landet ses som værende understøttende for forbrugertilliden. Usikkerheden om den globale økonomi og alle de mange historier om pres på fastkurspolitikken kan dog godt have begrænse stigningen i forbrugertilliden en smule. Vi vil især også holde øje med husholdningernes inflationsforventninger for tegn på, om disse er begyndt at blive påvirket i negativ. Til trods for at forbrugertilliden fortsat ligger på et niveau der indikerer fornuftig vækst i privatforbruget, er vi lidt tilbageholdende med at vente at se det afspejlet i detailsalget for januar. I både oktober og november var der tale om en stærk vækst i salget, men en del af dette skyldtes fremrykning af julesalget som gav anledning til et fald i butikkernes omsætning i december. Vi ser mulighed for at der stadig er lidt tømmermænd fra det stærke salg i den første del af 4. kvartal, og venter et nyt lille fald på 0,2% i januar. Det vil være i overensstemmelse med det lille fald vi så i dankortomsætningen i januar, når renset for det trendmæssige øgede brug. Herudover får vi lønstatistik for både den private sektor og offentlige sektor i 4. kvartal. Indtrykket af fortsat beherskede lønstigningstakter ventes intakt. Vi får også nyt fra arbejdsmarkedet i form af den arbejdskraftundersøgelsen for 4. kvartal (onsdag) der ventes at bekræfte tendensen til stagnation i bedringen på arbejdsmarkedet. Endelig får vi også tal for antallet af fyringsvarsler og ledige stillinger i januar, der kan give et pejlemærke om ledighedsudviklingen på vej ind i det nye år. Kina: Prisfaldene ikke overstået endnu DK: Forbrugerne tror ikke på deflation DK: Dankorttal peger på svagt detailsalg Analytikere: Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ragu02@handelsbanken.dk Jes Roerholt Asmussen, jeas01@handelsbanken.dk Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, bjro03@handelsbanken.dk 13. februar

4 Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus, 13. februar 2015 Økonomisk kalender D ato T id Land Indikato r P erio de Survey SH B F o rrige 16/02/15 00:50 Japan GDP SA (QoQ) 4Q P 0.9% % 16/02/15 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (M om /YoY) Feb %/8.2% 16/02/15 05:30 Japan Industrial Production (M om /YoY) Dec F %/0.3% 16/02/15 11:00 EM U Trade Balance SA Dec 19.0B B 16/02/15 17:30 EM U Eurogroup holds extra meeting on Greece 17/02/15 02:30 Kina Property prices Jan 17/02/15 08:00 EM U EU27 New Car Registrations Jan % 17/02/15 09:30 Sverige CPI (M om /YoY) Jan -1.1%/-0.3% -1.1%/-0.3% 0.2%/-0.3% 17/02/15 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF (M om /YoY) Jan -1.1%/0.6% -1.1%/0.5% 0.2%/0.5% 17/02/15 10:30 UK CPI (M om /YoY) Jan -0.8%/0.4% %/0.5% 17/02/15 10:30 UK CPI Core (YoY) Jan 1.4% % 17/02/15 10:30 UK ONS House Price (YoY) Dec % 17/02/15 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Feb /02/15 11:00 EM U ZEW Survey Expectations Feb /02/15 14:30 USA Empire M anufacturing Feb /02/15 16:00 USA NAHB Housing M arket Index Feb /02/15 18:45 USA Fed's Plosser Speaks on M onetary Policy 17/02/15 22:00 USA Net Long-term TIC Flows Dec $33.5B 17/02/15 USA M BA M ortgage Foreclosures and Delinquencies 4Q % 18/02/15 Japan Bank of Japan M onetary Policy Statement 18/02/15 10:30 UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M /YoY Dec 1.7% % 18/02/15 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3M ths Dec 5.7% % 18/02/15 10:30 UK Bank of England M inutes 18/02/15 11:00 EM U Construction Output (M om /YoY) Dec %/2.2% 18/02/15 13:00 USA M BA M ortgage Applications Feb % 18/02/15 14:30 USA Housing Starts Jan 1073K K 18/02/15 14:30 USA Building Permits Jan 1070K K 18/02/15 14:30 USA PPI Final Demand (M om /YoY) Jan -0.4%/0.4% %/0.3% 18/02/15 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (M om /YoY) Jan 0.1%/2.0% %/2.1% 18/02/15 15:15 USA Industrial Production (M om ) Jan 0.4% % 18/02/15 20:00 USA Fed Releases M inutes from Jan. M eeting 18/02/15 23:00 USA Fed's Powell Speaks 19/02/15 00:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Jan B B 19/02/15 08:45 Frankrig CPI (M om /YoY) Jan -0.9%/-0.3% %/0.1% 19/02/15 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence NSA Feb /02/15 10:00 EM U ECB Current Account SA Dec B 19/02/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Feb /02/15 16:00 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Feb /02/15 16:00 EM U Consumer Confidence Feb A /02/15 16:00 USA Leading Index Jan 0.3% % 20/02/15 02:35 Japan M arkit/jm M A Japan M anufacturing PM I Feb P /02/15 08:00 Tyskland PPI (M om /YoY) Jan -0.4%/-2.0% %/-1.7% 20/02/15 09:00 Sverige Consumer confidence Feb /02/15 09:00 Sverige M anufacturing Confidence s.a. Feb /02/15 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (M om /YoY) Jan %/ %/2.3% 20/02/15 10:00 EM U M arkit Eurozone M anufacturing PM I Feb P /02/15 10:00 EM U M arkit Eurozone Services PM I Feb P /02/15 10:00 EM U M arkit Eurozone Composite PM I Feb P /02/15 10:00 Italien Industrial Orders (M om /YoY) Dec %/-4.1% 20/02/15 10:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Jan -9.6B B 20/02/15 10:30 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto (M om /YoY) Jan -0.2%/6.1% %/4.3% 20/02/15 15:45 USA M arkit US M anufacturing PM I Feb P Udvalgte finansielle skøn fra Handelsbanken Capital Markets Officielle renter 10-årig statsrenter Valuta A ktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. A ktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. A ktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY Storbritannien EUR/GBP Schweiz EUR/CHF Danmark (0.00) EUR/DKK Sverige EUR/SEK Norge EUR/NOK Kilde: Handelsbanken Capital Markets Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 4

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