Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 2. februar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus For USA s vedkommende er der kun tal for bilsalget for januar på programmet. Bilsalget har været en stærk driver for økonomien gennem de seneste år, men på det seneste har der været tegn på at det har nået en top om end på et rekordstærkt niveau. Vi venter at tendensen til en mere flad udvikling vil være fortsat i det nye år. Der er også en enkelt Fed-taler på programmet (Esther George). Markederne reagerede med en vis skuffelse efter rentemødet i sidste uge, formentlig som følge af at Fed ikke var så dueagtige som ventet. Investorerne vil derfor lede efter meldinger om hvorvidt en renteforhøjelse stadig er på tegnebrættet eller ej. Fra euroområdet får vi ledighedstal for december. Ledigheden er faldet uventet hurtigt gennem størstedelen af 2015 og især i den sidste del af året. Yderligere ledighedsfald er da også blevet indikeret af stigende beskæftigelsesforventninger (i PMI) samt af nye ledighedsfald i Tyskland og Spanien i december, hvor Frankrig dog trækker i den anden retning med en stigning i antallet af jobsøgende. På den baggrund ventes et nyt fald i antallet af ledige personer, men ikke nok til at ændre ved ledighedsprocenten på 10,5%. Vi får mere timelige signaler om tilstanden på arbejdsmarkedet fra Tyskland, hvor der offentliggøres ledighedstal for januar. Vi får også producentpriser for december fra euroområdet som ikke ventes at give ECB mindre bekymring med hensyn til manglen på inflationært pres. Den danske valutareserve ventes at være faldet med i omegnen af 20 mia. kr. i januar. Det vil bringe valutareserven ned på det laveste niveau siden Den fortsat store valutaudstrømning i kombination med at kronen aktuelt er svagere over for EUR end før Nationalbankens renteforhøjelse i begyndelsen af januar peger på, at betingelserne for en yderligere renteforhøjelse er til stede. De seneste signaler fra ECB om, at den kan være på vej med nye lempelser, kan imidlertid trække i den modsatte retning. Vi vil dog fortsat holde et vågent øje med, om der torsdag eftermiddag kommer en ny forhøjelse af indskudsbevisrenten på 0,1%-point. DK: Nyt fald i valutareserven renteforhøjelse? Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i Europa var præget af negativ stemning om end faldet blev begrænset i de sidste timer af handelsdagen. Samme udvikling så vi i USA, der endte dagen næsten uændret. I Asien i nat har der dog været tale om større fald om end de kinesiske markeder steg. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland lagde fra morgenstunden ud med fald, men endte dagen højere. EUR blev styrket over for USD mens olieprisen havde en pil ned USA: ISM for fremstillingssektoren steg kun svagt fra 48,0 til 48,2 i januar og indikerer dermed, at der fortsat kæmpes med konsekvenserne af svag global efterspørgsel, den lave oliepris samt den stærke USD. Det mere fremadskuende indeks for nye ordrer steg dog fra 48,8 til 51,5, men da vurderingen af kundernes lagre holdt sig uændret højt, er signalerne stadig ikke alt for opløftende. Beskæftigelsesindekset faldt fra 48,0 til 45,5 det svageste niveau siden juni Det giver en risiko på nedsiden for fredagens vigtige arbejdsmarkedsrapport. Det reale private forbrug steg med 0,1% m/m i december efter en opadrevideret stigning på 0,4% m/m måneden før. Opsparingskvoten steg imidlertid også fra 5,3% til 5,5%, som indikerer, at forbrugerne fortsat er tøvende med at kanalisere de sparede udgifter fra de lavere energipriser ud i andet forbrug. Fed s foretrukne inflationsmål PCE-core var uændret 1,4% i december. Den annualiserede tre måneders ændring faldt imidlertid fra 1,4% til 1,2% og peger dermed ikke på tiltagende prispres, som også blev understreget af prisindekset i ISM-rapporten der blev fastholdt på det svageste niveau siden april Fed s Fischer understregede, at den seneste tids markedsuro kan have negativ indflydelse på amerikansk økonomi, og at det er meget usikkert hvad Fed vil gøre i marts han fastholder dog udsigten til meget gradvise renteforhøjelser. Byggeforbruget skuffede med en stigning på kun 0,1% m/m i december, holdt nede af et fald i anlægsinvesteringerne. Den seneste udlånsundersøgelse fra Fed peger på faldende efterspørgsel og strammere lånevilkår for virksomhedslån som indikerer en fortsat svag investeringsaktivitet i første halvår Euroområdet: Den endelige opgørelse af PMI-indekset for fremstillingssektoren bekræftede opbremsningen i januar med et fald fra 53,2 til 52,3. Af de lande vi ikke havde fået tal fra endnu var der tale om en positiv overraskelse fra Spanien, som dog blev opvejet af fald i Italien og Holland. Prisindekset faldt til det laveste niveau i et år, hvor alle eurolandene meldte om faldende priser for første gang i 11 måneder. Det vil givet give panderynker i ECB, der kæmper med at afværge truslen om deflation. ECB-chef Draghi understregede da også det svage prispres og svag lønvækst som en risikofaktor i en tale til parlamentet og fastholdt dermed indtrykket af at der er mere stimulans på vej. UK: PMI for fremstillingssektoren steg fra 52,1 til 52,9 i januar, og peger dermed på at sektoren begyndte det nye år med et lidt stærkere fodfæste. Givet det fortsat stærke niveau for GBP samt svag global efterspørgsel er det dog for tidligt at vente et stærkt opsving i fremstillingssektoren. Sverige: PMI for fremstillingssektoren faldt fra 56,0 til 55,5 i januar. Norge: PMI for fremstillingssektoren steg fra opreviderede 47,1 til 49,2 i januar der var ventet et fald til 46,0, så det må siges at være en positiv overraskelse. US: Fremstillingssektoren er fortsat presset For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. februar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,09% / indeks 1002,33) endte i moderat negativt territorium på ugens første handelsdag. Stemningen var lidt trykket af, at der om morgenen var blevet offentliggjort lidt skuffende PMI tal fra Kina, der indikerede at væksten fortsat er på vej ned i gear. I toppen af indekset endte Pandora (+3,11% / kurs 945,50) efter at både Nordea og Carnegie var ude og hæve deres kursmål på aktien til henholdsvis 1100 kr. og 1200 kr. Først nævnte venter, at både omsætning og indtjening næsten vil blive fordoblet frem mod A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,62% / kurs 8.875,00) havde også en god dag. Anbefalingen på aktien blev løftet af den japanske storbank Nomura til Køb fra Reducer. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet FLSmidth (- 2,21% / kurs 234,90) på trods af at ingeniørkoncernen kunne offentliggøre en egyptisk cementordre. Renter De lidt skuffende kinesiske PMI-tal sendte fra morgenstunden de danske og tyske obligationsrenter nedad sammen med råvarepriserne, og gav startskuddet til en dag der for det meste var præget af øget risikoaversion. Renterne vendte dog rundt i løbet af dagen, til trods for at de endelige PMI-indeks for fremstillingssektoren i euroområdet bekræftede svaghedssignalerne med især et bekymrende fald i prisindekset til det svageste niveau i et år. At renterne trak i vejret kan dog måske skyldes en bekymring om hvorvidt markederne muligvis har taget for meget forskud på graden af ny stimulans fra ECB som tilfældet også var det tilbage i december. ECB s Nowotny udtalte da også, at han gerne så en rationel tilgang fra markederne på udsigterne til nye ECB-lempelser, som kan have været katalysatoren for at renterne trak opad. ECBchef Draghis tale sidst på eftermiddagen var imidlertid på den dueagtige side. Rentestigningerne blev ikke begrænset af et svagt udfald af det amerikanske ISM-indeks for fremstillingssektoren, som falder i den del af vægtskålen, der peger på at det er meget usikkert hvorvidt Fed vil hæve renten allerede i marts, som også blev indikeret af Fed s Fischer. Overordnet set endte de danske og tyske obligationsrenter med små stigninger, men de amerikanske renter er faldet i nat som kan give rentefald herhjemme fra morgenstunden. Valuta EUR blev styrket over for USD på en dag hvor riskoaversionen var i højsædet efter de lidt skuffende kinesiske PMI-tal. Svækkelsen af EUR kom til trods for signaler om faldende prispres i PMI-opgørelsen for fremstillingssektoren fra euroområdet. Det skyldes muligvis udtalelser fra ECB som advarede om ikke at løbe løbsk med forventningerne til ny stimulans fra ECB som tilfældet var det tilbage i december sidste år. ECB-chef Draghi holdt dog i en tale til parlamentet døren på vid gab over for ny stimulans Med til at trække EUR stærkere var muligvis også et svagt udfald af ISM for fremstillingssektoren fra USA, som peger på mindre sandsynlighed for, at Fed er parate til at sætte renten yderligere i vejret. Usikkerheden om den fremtidige rentesti blev endvidere understreget af Fed s Fischer. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. februar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 02/02/16 Coloplast 1. kvartal 02/02/16 Danske Bank 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 01/02/16 02:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Jan /02/16 02:00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Jan /02/16 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Jan /02/16 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Jan /02/16 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Jan (r) /02/16 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Jan /02/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan F /02/16 10:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Jan (r) /02/16 14:30 USA Real Personal Spending (MoM) Dec 0.2% %(r) 0.1% 01/02/16 14:30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.1%/1.4% %/1.4%(r) 0.0%/1.4% 01/02/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan F /02/16 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Jan (r) /02/16 16:00 USA Construction Spending (MoM) Dec 0.6% %(r) 0.1% 01/02/16 19:00 USA Fed's Fischer Speaks 02/02/16 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Jan 6.3% % 02/02/16 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Jan /02/16 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.6%/-2.8% %/-3.2% 02/02/16 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Dec 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 02/02/16 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Jan /02/16 19:00 USA Fed's George Speaks on U.S. Economy 02/02/16 USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Jan 17.34m m 03/02/16 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Jan /02/16 06:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Jan /02/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jan F /02/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan F /02/16 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Jan /02/16 11:00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.3%/1.5% %/1.4% 03/02/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 29. Jan % 03/02/16 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Jan 190k k 03/02/16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Jan F /02/16 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jan (r) 04/02/16 10:10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Jan /02/16 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 04. Feb 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 04/02/16 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Feb 375b 375b 375b 04/02/16 13:00 UK Bank of England Inflation Report 04/02/16 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Jan % 04/02/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 30. Jan 280k k 04/02/16 14:30 USA Unit Labor Costs 4Q P 4.0% % 04/02/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 31. Jan /02/16 16:00 USA Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Dec -2.8% % 05/02/16 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.5%/-1.4% %/2.1% 05/02/16 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) Dec 0.5% 1.0% -0.9% 05/02/16 09:00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Jan b 05/02/16 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.5%/3.5% -0.5%/3.0% 1.4%/6.2% 05/02/16 14:30 USA Trade Balance Dec -$43.20b -- -$42.37b 05/02/16 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 190k 220k 292k 05/02/16 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Jan 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 05/02/16 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.3%/2.2% %/2.5% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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