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1 5. februar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Så blev det tid til den altid vigtige amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport, der ubetinget bliver dagens højdepunkt. Rapporten kan endda vise sig mere afgørende end normalt, da den kan have stor betydning for forventningerne til om den amerikanske centralbank vil sætte renten yderligere op eller ej. I lyset af den seneste tids skuffelser på nøgletalsfronten, der har givet indtryk af en bredere økonomisk afmatning på vej ind i det nye år, vil en fornuftig rapport også være afgørende for at kunne fastholde en vis optimisme med hensyn til hvorvidt det (begrænsede) økonomiske opsving er intakt. Vi venter, at beskæftigelsesfremgangen vil modereres oven på den uventede kraftige fremgang på personer i december. Vi venter en fremgang på personer, hvilket stadig må siges at være robust. Ser vi på diverse beskæftigelsesindikatorer, har flertallet peget på mindsket jobfremgang, herunder nok så interessant antallet af nytilmeldte ledige, som har vist en stigende tendens siden oktober sidste år (se figur neden for). Derudover har de seneste indikatorer peget på moderation inden for byggeri og fremstillingssektoren. Vi har dog modtaget lidt divergerende signaler for servicebeskæftigelsen, hvor PMI Markit PMI s beskæftigelsesindeks steg ganske pænt i januar, mens ISM s skuffede fælt hvorfor vi ser risiko på nedsiden til vores jobskøn (se figur). Med hensyn til arbejdsløsheden forventer vi at den igen vil være uændret på 5,0%, hvilket er i overensstemmelse med udviklingen i CBforbrugertillidsindikatorens arbejdsmarkedsindeks samt tendensen til stigning i antallet af nye ledige. Spørgsmålet er bare, om der samtidigt er flere som melder sig ind i arbejdsstyrken. I december var en af pletterne på den ellers stærke rapport, at lønvæksten ikke helt steg i det ventede omfang. Vi ser en risiko for, at januar heller ikke byder ind med nye tegn på øget lønpres, idet lønvæksten ventes at falde til 2,2% y/y fra forrige 2,5%. Vi har i den forbindelse modtaget modsatrettede indikatorer for lønudviklingen. NFIB har peget på acceleration, mens beskæftigelsesomkostningsindekset (ECI) har peget på moderation (figur). Endelig har forbrugertillidsmålinger samt opsigelsesraten peget på en mere stabil udvikling. Derudover kan der være lidt fokus på tyske fabriksordre, Schweiz' valutareserve. Vi venter et rebound i den danske industriproduktion i december i omegnen af 1% m/m. Det skyldes primært at vi venter en stigning i den meget volatile medicinalsektor, som har været en af drivkræfterne bag den negative udvikling de foregående måneder. Trods den ventede stigning i december er der alligevel udsigt til et fald i industriproduktionen på 2,3% q/q i 4. kvartal. Det betyder, at sektoren vil have bidraget med 0,3%-point mindre til BNP-væksten i årets sidste kvartal i forhold til kvartalet før. USA: Risici på nedsiden for beskæftigelsen? USA: ECI peger lønvæksten ned igen Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne udviklede sig rimeligt fladt (Europa lidt ned, USA lidt op), og obligationsrenterne også lidt blandede (Tyske lidt op, USA lidt ned). EUR/USD tog et nyt pænt skridt opad, mens JPY styrkes igen. Asien-børser peger lidt ned trukket af Japan. USA: De ugentlige tal for nye dagpengeansøgere steg til Der var ventet et uændret antal nye ledige på Dermed ser den tendens til stigning, vi har set siden oktober (jf. figur), ud til at fortsætte, selvom niveauet stadig er lidt lavere end for to uger siden. Produktivitetsvæksten fortsætter med at udvikle sig på den meget svage side. Produktiviteten voksede således med bare 0,6% y/y i 2015, med en tendens til markant opbremsning i årets sidste kvartal. Den svage produktivitetsvækst medfører en betydelig stigning i virksomhedernes omkostninger, og udgør dermed en betydelig trussel for udviklingen i profitterne. Set som et 4 kvartalers centreret glidende gennemsnit er omkostningerne for at producere en enhed vare (de reale enhedslønomkostninger) således steget markant igennem faktisk har stigningen ikke været større siden Sammenhængen mellem virksomhedernes profitter og udviklingen i enhedslønomkostningerne indikerer, at profitterne kan stå over for betydelige fald i de kommende kvartaler, og udgør en reel risiko for recession i USA. Euroområdet: ECB-chef Draghi understregede i tale, at udfordringer kan blive imødegået, og ikke retfærdiggør inaktivitet samt at man ikke vil overgive sig til lav inflation. EU-Kommissionen nedjusterede ikke overraskende sin vækstforventninger for euroområdet i år til 1,7% fra forrige 1,8%, hvilket stadig er højere end konsensus. Samtidigt blev inflationsskønnet halveret til blot 0,5% i år fra forrige 1,0%. UK: Bank of England (BoE) ændrede helt som ventet ikke ved pengepolitikken på gårsdagens rentemøde. Lav inflation, afdæmpet lønvækst, markant finansiel uro og usikkerhed om den globale økonomi var på forhånd set som gode årsager til tålmodighed fra bankens side. Hertil kommer også usikkerheden i forbindelse med den eventuelle EU-afstemning. Det medfølgende referat viste en stemmefordeling for beslutningen på 9-0, hvormed Ian McCafferty, der ellers gennem længere tid har stemt for en renteforhøjelse også kastede håndklædet i ringen. BoE følger således i kølvandet på tendensen fra andre af de større centralbanker, der enten lemper pengepolitikken eller signalerer, at de vil afholde sig fra at stramme op. Det overordnede signal var således klart på den bløde side. I BoE s inflationsrapport blev prognoserne for inflationen og BNP-væksten da også nedjusteret. Stramheder på arbejdsmarkedet ses dog fortsat som en mulig risiko, men de svage inflations- og vækstudsigter vejer tungere. Det kan således se ud til, at en eventuel renteforhøjelse først bliver aktuel tidligst i 2017, mens markedsforventningerne er til sent i USA: Nytilmeldte ledige peger på vending? For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. februar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,12% / indeks 966,44) sluttede gårsdagens handel med en beskeden stigning. Tendensen var den samme over hele Europa, hvor stemningen blev dikteret af udsving i olieprisen. På det danske marked var der især fokus på bankerne. Det skyldes at Nykredit meldte ud, at de hæver bidragssatserne på realkreditlån. Vi forventer, at de øvrige realkreditinstitutter vil følge trop og hæve deres bidragssatser. Det vil give et pænt løft til bankernes pressede nettorenteindtægter. Effekten af eventuelt højere bidragssatser vil begunstige de banker som ejer realkreditselskaber relativt mest. Blandt disse er Danske Bank (+4,24% / kurs 191,80) som ejer Realkredit Danmark og Jyske Bank (+5,91% / kurs 295,90) som ejer BRFkredit. Netop disse aktier var blandt de mest stigende aktier i det ledende danske C20-indeks. Renter De europæiske renter åbnede torsdag højere oven på stigningen i USA sent onsdag kombineret med lidt højere oliepriser. En vending i olieprisen medvirkede sammen med nyhederne fra Europa dog nok til at bremse rentestigningen. ECB-chef Draghi understregede således parathed til at indsætte ny stimulans, samtidigt med at EU-Kommissionen nedreviderede sine skøn for vækst og især inflation. Dertil skulle lægge lidt mindre høgeagtige signaler fra BoE i forbindelse med rentemødet. Det betød at obligationsrenterne (tyske og danske) blot endte med en lille stigning. USA kunne for sin del heller ikke byde ind med specielt opløftende makro-data. Antallet af nye ledige steg lidt mere end ventet, mens værre var, at produktiviteten faldt noget mere end ventet i Q4, hvilket øgede enhedslønomkostningerne. USA s statsrenter endte således dagen med et fald. Valuta EUR/USD trak nedad endnu en dag, hvilket nok skulle ses i sammen hæng med fortsat stigende oliepris. Derudover modtog vi ikke specielt opløftende USA-nøgletal, idet antallet af nye ledige steg, mens produktiviteten faldt noget mere end ventet. EUR blev for sin del ikke specielt svækket, på trods af at Draghi luftede sit fokus på agerer med nye tiltag, og EU-Kommissionen nedjusterede sin vækstog inflationsskøn. GBP blev svækket efter rentemøde, hvor der nu er enstemmighed om uændret pengepolitik, mod tidligere en stemme for renteforhøjelse. Dertil skulle lægges en inflationsrapport med fokus på nedjustering af vækst og inflationsskøn. JPY blev styrket over en bred kam, og fortsatte dermed stærkere over for USD end umiddelbart inden BoJ overraskede med en rentesænkning i sidste uge. Over for EUR var styrkelsen dog knap så kraftig. CHF bliver styrket en smule (mod EUR) og stoppede dermed forrige tre dages svækkelsestendens. SNB-vicechef Zurbrügg fremhæver parathed til FX-interventioner, og konstaterer at JPY for tiden er mere interessant end CHF som safe haven -valuta. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. februar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Coloplast 1. kvartal Danske Bank 4. kvartal Novo Nordisk 4. kvartal IC Group 2. kvartal TDC 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Jan :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Jan :45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Jan :30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Jan :00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Jan (r) :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Jan :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan F :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Jan (r) :30 USA Real Personal Spending (MoM) Dec 0.2% %(r) 0.1% :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.1%/1.4% %/1.4%(r) 0.0%/1.4% :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan F :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Jan (r) :00 USA Construction Spending (MoM) Dec 0.6% %(r) 0.1% :00 USA Fed's Fischer Speaks :55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Jan 6.3% % 6.2% :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Jan :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.6%/-2.8% %/-3.2% -0.8%/-3.0% :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Dec 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.4% :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Jan :00 USA Fed's George Speaks on U.S. Economy USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Jan 17.34m m 17.46m :45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Jan :00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Jan :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jan F :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Jan :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.3%/1.5% %/1.4% 0.3%/1.4% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 29. jan % -2.6% :15 USA ADP Employment Change Jan 193k k(r) 205k :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Jan F :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jan (r) :10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Jan :00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 04. feb 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% :00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Feb 375b 375b 375b 375b :00 UK Bank of England Inflation Report :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Jan % :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 30. jan 277k k 285k :30 USA Nonfarm Productivity 4Q P -2.0% % -3.0% :30 USA Unit Labor Costs 4Q P 4.1% % 4.5% :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 31. jan :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Dec -2.8% % -2.9% :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.5%/-1.4% %/2.1% :00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) Dec 0.5% 1.0% -0.9% :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Jan b :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.5%/3.5% -0.5%/3.0% 1.4%/6.2% :30 USA Trade Balance Dec -$43.20b -- -$42.37b :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 190k 220k 292k :30 USA Unemployment Rate Jan 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% :30 USA Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.3%/2.2% %/2.5% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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