Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 5. maj 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der vil naturligvis fortsat være fokus på forhandlingerne mellem Grækenland og landets kreditorer, hvor der har været visse positive tilkendegivelser om mulige fremskridt, uden at der endnu er noget konkret på bordet. Der er stadig visse områder som den græske regering anser som værende uden for forhandlinger, og muligheden for at en aftale, hvis den kommer på plads, skal udlægges til folkeafstemning er stadig til stede. I den forbindelse kan det også blive interessant at se EU- Kommissionens nye økonomiske forecast, som givet vil tegne et mere dystert billede af udsigterne for græsk økonomi. Herudover får vi både ISM og PMI-tal for servicesektoren i USA. Markedet venter et tilbagefald i ISM-service i april, formentlig trukket af den noget skuffende udvikling vi har set i forbrugertilliden, samt det fortsat afdæmpede underliggende detailsalg. Vi ser dog mulighed for, at et vist rebound i privatforbruget (eller udsigten til dette) kan have holdt hånden under servicebarometret, ligesom servicesektoren er mindre følsom over for den stærkere USD end fremstillingssektoren. Men selv om ISM-service imidlertid skulle vise sig at falde som markedet venter det, vil niveauet dog fortsat være i overensstemmelse med en annualiseret BNP-vækst i omegnen af 3% i 2. kvartal. Falder ISM-service til under 54, som er det laveste skøn blandt prognosemagrene vil det dog formentlig kunne skubbe lidt til de aktuelle bekymringer om, at opbremsningen i økonomien er mere end bare vejrrelateret, og give næring til at udskyde den første renteforhøjelse fra Fed yderligere. Vi vil især også holde øje med beskæftigelsesindekset i ISM-opgørelsen for at finpudse vores skøn forud for den vigtige arbejdsmarkedsrapport på fredag. Vi får også tal for handelsbalancen i marts, som ventes at vise en betydelig udvidelse som følge af en markant stigning i importen efter at arbejdsforstyrrelserne på vestkysthavnene blev overstået. BNPtallene for 1. kvartal fra sidste uge har dog allerede peget på denne udvikling. Dagens opgørelse fra Nationalbanken over valutareservens størrelse ved udgangen af april vil give svar på i hvor stor grad presset mod den danske krone er aftaget. Ser man på udviklingen i den danske krone over for euroen befinder denne sig fortsat meget tæt på centralpariteten, og det aftagende pres ventes også afspejlet i et fald i valutareserven i omegnen af 32 mia. kr. i april. Der er dog stadig lang vej endnu før valutareserven er tilbage på de niveauer vi så før presset for en stærkere krone opstod i begyndelsen af året. Vi fastholder, at der ikke er udsigt til forhøjelser af indskudsbevisrenten lige om hjørnet. US: Servicesektoren trækker stadig økonomien Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder steg, og det samme gjorde de amerikanske om end stigningerne her var lidt mere begrænsede. De asiatiske markeder er dog faldet i nat. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland trak yderligere i vejret, mens EUR blev svækket over for USD. USA: Der var ikke de store nøgletal på programmet, og de forskellige Fedmedlemmer der var på banen tegnede et fortsat billede af lidt uenighed om timingen af den første renteforhøjelse. Fed s Williams (stemmeberettiget) var meget optimistisk med hensyn til de økonomiske udsigter. Fed s Evans (også stemmeberettiget) sagde, at han helst så en renteforhøjelse udskudt til 2016, men sagde også, at hvis renteforhøjelserne kom meget langsomt ville selv med en tidligere første renteforhøjelse så ville pengepolitikken fortsat være understøttende for det økonomiske opsving. Endelig sagde Fed s Rosengreen (ikke-stemmberettiget) at de økonomiske nøgletal for indeværende bestemt ikke understøtter en påbegyndelse af pengepolitisk stramning, selv om et lav-vækst scenario ikke er hans hovedscenario. Fed s udlånsundersøgelse pegede på uændrede kreditstandarder og efterspørgsel på virksomhedslånesiden men lempeligere standarder og større efterspørgsel på lån til huskøb. Euroområdet: Den endelige opgørelse af PMI for fremstillingssektoren i april endte på 52,0 hvilket var en anelse bedre end det første estimat på 51,9, men stadig et fald fra 52,2 måneden før. I bedste fald er der således fortsat tale om et noget afdæmpet opsving i fremstillingssektoren, hvor den svage EUR fortsat ikke for alvor ser ud til at have haft en markant positiv effekt. Der var dog tegn på at priserne er på vej i vejret igen for første gang i 8 måneder, og beskæftigelsesindekset steg til det højeste niveau siden august Ser man på udviklingen i de enkelte lande, er Grækenland og Frankrig stadig efternølerne. Det græske PMI faldt således til det laveste niveau i 22 måneder i et tydeligt tegn på at usikkerheden om landets fremtid sætter en bremse på aktiviteten. Og det franske PMI befinder sig i kontraktivt territorium for 11. måned i træk. Det tyske indeks faldt også lidt tilbage, mens de spanske og italienske ligger i det stærke felt. Der var også tegn på en vis opbremsning i bedringen i euroområdets økonomi fra Sentix-investortilliden. Faldet fra 20,0 til 19,6 i maj var dog relativt begrænset, men det var den første negative udvikling siden oktober sidste år. Det overordnede billede for indeværende er således, at opsvinget ikke har fået yderligere momentum på vej ind i 2. kvartal. ECB annoncerede at den har købt statsobligationer for EUR 47,7 mia. i april, og opfyldt resten af kvoten på EUR 60 mia. med køb af andre gældsprodukter. Australien: Centralbanken sænker renten fra 2,25% til 2,0% formentlig trukket af svagere efterspørgsel fra Kina samt faldet i råvarepriserne og ikke mindst jernmalm. EMU: Frankrig og Grækenland klassens sorte får For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. maj 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,35% / indeks 1.002,86) endte i positivt territorium efter at have været under et voldsomt pres i den forgangne uge. I toppen af indekset endte Vestas (+4,22% / kurs 315,90) efter selskabet natten til fredag udsendte en meddelelse om, at de har modtaget en ordre på 400 MW fra USA med levering i A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+1,44% / kurs ,00) fulgte godt med på trods af, at fragtraterne dykkede i sidste uge til 343 dollars per tyve fods container, hvilket er det laveste niveau nogensinde. Dog er stemningen understøttet af en let stigende oliepris. Danske Bank (+1,96% / kurs 192,70) fik indhentet noget af torsdagens tabte i takt med, at en række finanshuse har været ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. Novo Nordisk (+0,79% / kurs 381,70) endte også højere efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. DSV (+0,56% / kurs 232,60) fortsatte sidste uges stærke kursudvikling efter en række finanshuse har hævet kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte FLSmidth (-0,95% / kurs 282,20) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland havde igen pilen opad på månedens første handelsdag. Rentestigningerne kom, selv om tal fra ECB viste, at bankens obligationsopkøbsprogram forløb planmæssigt i april og selv om de økonomiske nøgletal i form af fortsat svage endelige PMI-tal for fremstillingssektoren i euroområdet (om end lidt bedre end først rapporteret) samt et fald i Sentix-investortilliden var på den lidt svage side. Prisindekset i PMI-opgørelsen viste dog tegn på at virksomhederne øgede priserne for første gang i 8 måneder, og beskæftigelsesindekset nåede det stærkeste niveau siden august Der var dog betydelige svagheder i de franske og græske PMI-indeks. ECB s Constancio udtrykte endvidere optimisme med hensyn til at en reform for funding aftale ville blive opnået med Grækenland. Meldingerne fra Fed var blandede, om end både Evans og Williams antydede at en junirenteforhøjelse stadig er i kortene. Evans så dog helst at forhøjelsen blev udskudt til 2016 budskabet er dog fortsat at det vil være afhængigt af udviklingen i nøgletallene. Den australske centralbank sænkede renten i nat fra 2,25% til 2,0%. Valuta EUR blev svækket efter at de endelige PMI-tal for fremstillingssektoren fortsat kaster lidt tvivl over styrken af euroområdets økonomi, trods nye stigninger i obligationsrenterne og et mere positivt inflationsindtryk fra PMIopgørslen. Den fælles valuta viste ellers i forrige uge det stærkeste rally over for USD i tæt ved 5 år, men det er værd at bide mærke i at denne udvikling mest var trukket af svagheder i de amerikanske nøgletal snarere end yderligere styrke i opsvinget i euroområdet. Investortilliden fra Sentix for maj viste endvidere det første fald siden oktober sidste år. JPY har udviklet sig mere eller mindre stabilt trods bedringen på aktiemarkederne i Europa og USA, og med lav aktivitet som følge af hellidage i Japan. SEK blev styrket efter en overraskende stigning i det svenske PMIindeks for fremstillingssektoren. AUD blev styrket trods rentenedsættelsen fra centralbanken, da det vurderes at renten har nået en bund i denne omgang. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. maj 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 05/05/15 Alk-Abello 1. kvartal 05/05/15 Bavarian Nordic 1. kvartal 05/05/15 Coloplast 2. kvartal 06/05/15 Lundbeck 1. kvartal 06/05/15 Vestas 1. kvartal 07/05/15 Exiqon 1. kvartal 07/05/15 TDC 1. kvartal 07/05/15 William Demant Holding 1. kvartal 08/05/15 Auriga Industries 1. kvartal 08/05/15 FLSmidth 1. kvartal 08/05/15 Københavns Lufthavne 1. kvartal 08/05/15 Simcorp 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 04/05/15 03:45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Apr F /05/15 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Apr /05/15 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Apr /05/15 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Apr /05/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr F /05/15 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence May /05/15 18:25 USA Fed's Evans Speaks on Monetary Policy 05/05/15 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.2%/-0.4% -0.3%/-1.3% -0.1%/-3.9% 05/05/15 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Apr /05/15 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.3%/-2.3% %/-2.8% 05/05/15 11:00 EMU European Commission Economic Forecasts 05/05/15 14:30 USA Trade Balance Mar -$41.5B -- -$35.4B 05/05/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Apr F /05/15 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Apr /05/15 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Apr /05/15 03:45 Kina HSBC China Services PMI Apr /05/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Apr F /05/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Apr F /05/15 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Apr /05/15 11:00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.1%/2.6% %/3.0% 06/05/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May % 06/05/15 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Apr 200K K 06/05/15 14:30 USA Unit Labor Costs 1Q P 4.4% % 06/05/15 15:15 USA Fed's Yellen, IMF's Lagarde Speaks 06/05/15 19:30 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Monetary Policy 07/05/15 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Mar 1.5%/1.9% %/-1.3% 07/05/15 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar -0.1%/1.1% %/0.6% 07/05/15 09:00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Apr 523.0B B 07/05/15 09:30 Tyskland Markit Germany Construction PMI Apr /05/15 09:30 Sverige Average House Prices Apr M 07/05/15 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates May % 1.00% 1.25% 07/05/15 10:10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Apr /05/15 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Apr % 07/05/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May 2 278K K 07/05/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May /05/15 Kina Trade Balance Apr $39.6B -- $3.08B 08/05/15 Kina (Exports/Imports) YoY Apr 2.6%/-10.3% %/-12.7% 08/05/15 07:45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Apr 3.3% % 08/05/15 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.4%/0.5% 0.4%/ 0.2%/-0.3% 08/05/15 08:00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Mar 0.4% % 08/05/15 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Mar 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 08/05/15 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/-0.9% 0.1%/-0.9% 0.3%/-0.9% 08/05/15 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 225K 250K 126K 08/05/15 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Apr 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 08/05/15 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/2.3% %/2.1% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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