Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 1. juni 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste begivenheder ventes at komme fra USA. Her modtager vi ISM s fremstillingsindeks, og her ventes et lille fald til 50,6 fra 50,8 i april. Det baseres først og fremmest på rækken af regionale fremstillingsindeks, som har sendt et rimeligt entydigt signal om en lidt dårligere stemning i fremstillingssektoren i maj (jf. figur samt Chicago PMI neden for). Det samme har Markits tilsvarende PMI-indeks. På den anden side har en tidligere svækkelse i USD samt en stigning i ordre/lagerforholdet peget på at faldet ikke bliver stort, og vi ikke bør vente endnu lavere indeksværdier i de efterfølgende måneder. Derudover har olieprisen rejst sig, hvilket kan give anledning til en vis fortrøstning hos den olierelaterede del af industrien. Megen fokus i USA er på rentemødet i juni, og forventningsdannelsen til en mulig renteforhøjelse her. ISM-indeksene for maj samt arbejdsmarkedsrapporten (fredag) ventes generelt lidt svagere, men ikke svage nok til at afholde Fed for en renteforhøjelse på et af de kommende to møder. I den forbindelse får vi i dag også Fed s økonomiske Beige Book -rapport. Her vil især blive lagt mærke til signaler, som yderligere kan bekræfte, at væksttilbagegangen i 1. kvartal var af midlertidig karakter. Næsten alle 12 distrikter meldte om beskeden til moderat fremgang i den økonomiske aktivitet. Det gjorde kun halvdelen i forrige rapport. Der blev også meldt om fremgang i industrien efter den har haft det svært som følge af den stærke USD. Ydermere får vi tal for bilsalg, byggeinvesteringer samt realkreditansøgninger fra USA. I Europa står den på PMI-statistikker for fremstillingsindustrien, herunder fra UK, Schweiz og Sverige. Der ventes en lille stigning i UK til lige under 50, mens der ventes små fald i Sverige og Schweiz. Endelig vil vi ikke afvise muligheden for at PMI i euroområdet kan blive revideret lidt op, efter at kernelandene viste sig stærkere end det samlede PMI-indeks for euroområdet. Schweiz byder derudover ind med Q1 BNP-vækst, hvor vi venter et lille fald i til 0,3% q/q fra 0,4% i Q USA: Regionale indeks peger ISM lidt mere ned Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der herskede en negativ stemning på aktiemarkederne tirsdag samtidigt med olieprisfald. Renterne faldt især i USA mens JPY styrkes. Til morgen falder Asien-børserne især trukket ned af Japan, mens US-futures dog stiger en smule. USA: Det personlige forbrug sprang i vejret i april med hele 1,0% m/m, hvilket var mere end ventet samt den største stigning i næsten syv år. Springet op i forbruget kom oven på at forbrugsvæksten var faldet gradvist tilbage over det seneste års tid for skuffende at ligge på nulpunktet i marts. Dermed giver tallene et stærkt udgangspunkt for bedring i forbrugsvæksten i 2. kvartal. Der var dog ventet en pæn stigning som indikeret af allerede kendte detailsalgstal og ikke mindst stærkt bilsalg. Samtidigt viste kerneforbrugsdeflatoren (Core-PCE, som typisk bliver anset som Fed s foretrukne inflationsmål) sig uændret på 1,6% y/y, hvilket dog var som ventet. Med hensyn til forbrugsudsigterne modtog vi også forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board faldt uventet i maj til det laveste niveau i et halvt år, hvilket kan være påvirket af de stigende benzinpriser. Derudover faldt jobindekset tilbage indikerende en mere flad udvikling i arbejdsløsheden (se figur). Endelig modtog vi Chicago PMI for fremstillingssektoren, som viste et større fald end ventet til 49,3 (aktivitetsfald ved værdier under 50) i maj. Indekset har nogenlunde fulgt bevægelserne i ISM s tilsvarende indeks og peger dermed på risiko for lidt større fald end ventet her. Kina: Begge PMI-indeks for den kinesiske fremstillingssektor udviklede sig som ventet stabilt i maj. Det tyder på, at den økonomiske vækst har stabiliseret sig. Det officielle PMI for fremstillingssektoren var 50,1 i maj, uændret fra april, mens fremstillings-pmi fra Markit faldt en anelse i maj til 49,2 fra 49,4 i april. Begge indeks steg markant i marts men faldt en smule i april (se figur). Med den stabile udvikling i maj føler vi os mere overbeviste om, at den store stigning i marts var reel og ikke kun skyldtes forskydninger i tidspunktet for fejringen af nytåret. Sæsonudsvingene relateret til det kinesiske nytår er med sikkerhed ude af maj-tallene. Vi forventer let fremgang i den økonomiske vækst i den kommende tid inden vækstopbremsningen vender tilbage mod slutningen af året. På den lange bane er der kun én vej for væksten, nemlig nedad, da strukturerne i økonomien taler for lavere og ikke højere vækst. Japan: PM Abe annoncerede ikke uventet en udskydelse af momsforhøjelsen til 10% fra forrige 8% (planlagt til april næste år) til sidst i Abe taler i dag, hvor det rygtes at han desuden vil annoncerer ekstra vækstskabende initiativer. Euroområdet: Som ventet steg forbrugerprisinflationen til -0,1% y/y i maj op fra - 0,2% y/y i april. Samtidigt steg kerneinflationen lidt til 0,8% i maj fra 0,7% i april. Vi forventer, at inflationsraten vil påbegynde en kraftigere stigning de kommende måneder, i overensstemmelse med et løft fra den årlige basiseffekt fra energipris fald sidste år (se figur). Den private kreditvækst steg en tand til 1,1% y/y i april fra 1,0% i marts, og er dermed mere eller mindre kørt sidelæns i knapt et år, indikerende at opsvinget i kreditvæksten er løbet tør for benzin. Arbejdsløshedsraten var uændret 10,2% i april som ventet om end antallet af ledige faldt endnu en måned ( personer). Desuden faldt tysk arbejdsløshedsrate overraskende til rekordlave 6,1%. Danmark: Dansk økonomi viste overraskende styrke i 1. kvartal, hvor BNP-væksten endte på 0,5% q/q. Det var især trukket af fremgang i privatforbruget, og det er noget svær at forene med de indikatorer vi har modtaget for udviklingen i årets første måneder. Tallene tager noget af brodden af diskussionen om lavvækstkrise, om end vi stadig er tilbageholdende med at erklære, at et stærkere opsving er på trapperne. USA: Tegn på langsommere fald i ledigheden EUR: Inflation vil blive løftet af basiseffekt For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 1. juni 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,02% / indeks 1054,51) endte stort set uændret på en dag hvor det var temmelig sparsomt med selskabsspecifikke nyheder og interessante nøgletal. Stemningen var generelt afventende forud for ugens vigtige nøgletals offentliggørelser fra USA (ISM og jobrapport), samt offentliggørelsen af den amerikanske Beige Book rapport. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte Genmab (+1,17% / kurs 1208,00) for anden handelsdag i træk. Den positive udvikling var formentligt drevet af, at Genmab mandag aften kunne meddele, at selskabet har modtaget 30 mio. dollar af partneren Janssen i forbindelse med det første kommercielle salg af Darzalex i Europa. Uden for det ledende OMXC20 CAP indeks fik SAS (+1,64% / kurs 18,60) lidt opmærksomhed, eftersom den svenske storbank Swedbank sænkede sin anbefaling på aktien til Neutral fra Køb. Kursmålet blev desuden sænket til 20 kr. fra 24 kr. Renter I Europa steg de tyske (og danske) renter på statsobligationer først på dagen, efter vi modtog en række nøgletal. Disse viste at inflationsraten steg en tand i maj samt at den private kreditvækst var en anelse højere i april. Ledigheden var derudover faldende og Tyskland satte ny bundrekord i arbejdsløshedsraten i maj. Rentefald i USA endte dog med at trækker renterne ned over dagen. USA s statsrenter fulgte i første omgang med de europæiske opad, hvilket blandt andet fik støtte fra robuste tal for det personlige forbrug i april. Stigningen blev dog bremset af et større fald end ventet i Chicago PMI i maj (samt Dallas Fed fremstillingsindeks) samt efter at CB-forbrugertilliden overraskende faldt i maj, blandt andet trukket ned af et svagere jobindeks. Derudover var stemningen på aktiemarkederne til den svage side. Valuta EUR blev svækket først på tirsdagen, men vendte rundt og blev styrket efter en omgang ganske pæne nøgletal for inflation, kreditvækst og ledighed. USD tog dog til genmæle senere på tirsdagen i forbindelse med at det personlige forbrug steg uventet kraftigt i april. Uventet svage fremstillingsindeks Chicago PMI & Dallas Fed samt et uventet fald i CB-forbrugertilliden modererede udviklingen. I sidste ende sluttede USD dagen en tand stærkere mod EUR sandsynligvis påvirket af olieprisfald. GBP blev svækket en smule på seneste meningsmålinger, som viste at ja -sidens forspring blev mindsket (ORB: 51%/46%). JPY blev styrket en anelse i forbindelse med en lidt mere negativ stemning på børserne. Det betød således mindre at PM Abe til morgen annoncerede en udskydelse af den planlagte momsforhøjelse til næste år, hvilket de fleste nok havde regnet med. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 1. juni 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Per Aarsleff 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr -0.5%/-1.1% %/-1.0% -0.8%/0% :35 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks in Seoul :45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P 0.5%/1.3% %/1.3% 0.6%/1.4% :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.1%/2.7% %/2.7% -0.1%/2.5% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator May :30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q 0.6%/4.1% 0.4%/4.0% 1.3%/4.5% 0.5%/4.2% :00 EMU Economic Confidence May :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) May P 0.3%/0.1% %/-0.1% 0.3%/0.1% :30 Japan Jobless Rate Apr 3.2% % 3.2% :50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr P -1.5%/ %/0.2% 0.3%/-3.5% :00 Tyskland Retail Sales MoM Apr 0.9%/1.7% %/0.6% -0.9%/2.3% :45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) May P 0.3%/-0.1% %/-0.2% 0.4%/-0.1% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Apr 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% :00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P 0.1%/0.0% -0.2/-0.3% 0.1%/0.5% 0.5%/0.6% :55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA May 6.2% % 6.1% :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Apr 5.0% % 4.6% :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Apr 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% :00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY May -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY May A 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% :30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Apr 0.6% % 1.0% :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/1.6% %/1.6% 0.2%/1.6% :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.7%/5.06% %/5.43% 0.85%/5.43% :45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager May :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index May (r) :30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity May :00 Kina Manufacturing PMI May :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI May :45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg May :00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg May F :45 Schweiz GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q 0.2%/0.9% 0.3%/1.0% 0.4%/0.4% :00 UK Nationwide House (MoM/YoY) May 0.3%/4.8% %/4.9% :30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing May :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing May :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May F :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA May :00 EMU OECD Economic Outlook :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI May F :00 USA ISM Manufacturing May :00 USA Construction Spending MoM Apr 0.6% % :00 USA U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales May 17.30m m :00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index May :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI May :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY May % :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate -0.40% -0.40% -0.40% :45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% :45 EMU ECB Asset Purchase Target Jun EU80b EU80b EU80b :15 USA ADP Employment Change May 178k k :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May k :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves May :45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services May :45 USA Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI May F :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI May F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI May :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2% %/2.1% :30 USA Trade Balance Apr -$41.9b -- -$40.4b :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls May 160k 150k 160k :30 USA Unemployment Rate May 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% :30 USA Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) May 0.2%/2.5% %/2.5% :45 USA Markit US Services PMI May F :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite May :00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Apr 0.8% % Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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