Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 23. oktober 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I dag er det store PMI-dag, idet vi modtager en række foreløbige opgørelse af Markits PMI-indeks for oktober. Det skal dog understreges, at vi ikke modtog PMI for Kina, idet det foreløbige estimat ikke længere offentliggøres. Vi fokuserer især på opgørelserne for euroområdet. Her forventer vi, at Composite PMI-indekset vil falde en smule til 53,2 i oktober fra tidligere 53,6. At vi har lagt en top bag os i konjunkturindikatorerne i denne omgang er blevet antydet af de seneste måneders fald i investorbarometrene såsom Sentix. Dette barometer toppede dog også på et højere niveau. Mens den svagere EUR tidligere i år stadig bør støtte aktiviteten i industrien, bliver det interessant i hvilket omfang tysk industri reagerer negativt på VW skandalen, som kom oven i allerede træge hårde data for tysk industri i de seneste måneder. På den anden side har vi modtaget fortsat stærke signaler fra servicesektoren; ECFIN s detailtillidsindeks er blevet styrket yderligere, og forbrugertilliden har stabiliseret sig på et nogenlunde robustniveau. Desuden bør den nye omgang olieprisfald yde positiv støtte til PMI-indeksene. Vi får også Markit s foreløbige PMI-indeks for fremstillingsindustrien i USA i oktober. Her ventes et lille fald, hvilket nok især henter indflydelse fra det noget større fald i ISM s fremstillingsindeks de seneste to måneder. Detailsektoroptimisme bør bremse PMI-fald Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: ECB-møde efterlod duagtigt indtryk, hvilket sendte EUR svagere, renter ned og aktiekurserne i vejret, især i Europa som steg med over 2%. Den gode børsstemning bredte sig til resten af verden hjulpet af gode regnskaber fra Techselskaber i USA samt stigende boligpriser i Kina. Euroområdet: ECB-rentemødet endte med et dueagtig indtryk på finansmarkederne, idet Draghi lovede en revurdering af pengepolitikkens lempelsesvirkning på decembermødet i forbindelse med offentliggørelsen af nye stabsprognoser for vækst og inflation. Det blev krydret med kommentarer om, at nedsættelser af indlånsrenterne var blevet diskuteret, samt at der var personer i Styrelsesrådet der indikerede, at de ønskede lempelser på gårsdagens møde. Således formåede han retorisk at fremstå som mere parat til handling i december. Han fremstod dog ikke yderligere bekymret for vækst og inflation, hvor der fortsat blev set risici på nedsiden, og basalt set købte han blot mere tid til december-rentemødet, hvor højere inflation, stabilisering på finansmarkederne og mulig bedring i kinesisk økonomi kan have mildnet kravet for handling fra ECB. Han risikerer dog, at udmeldingen har øget finansmarkedernes krav for handling på december-rentemødet i en grad, så han bliver nødt til at leverer. I så fald vurderer vi, at det maksimalt bliver i form af en forlængelse af obligationsopkøbsprogrammet (i første omgang). EUR blev svækket kraftigt efter rentemødet, men dog ikke til det samme svage niveau som efter september-mødet, hvor Draghi tilsvarende pegede på mulighed for mere stimulans. Foreløbig forbrugertillid for oktober faldt i henhold til ECFIN en smule mere end ventet, efter at have udviklet sig rimeligt stabilt de forrige to måneder. Niveauet for tilliden er stadig pænt, men peger dog på mere afdæmpet forbrugsvækst i 4. kvartal. USA: Salget af eksisterende boliger steg mere end ventet i september og reverserede dermed det uventet store fald fra august til det næsthøjeste niveau siden 2007 og dermed fastholdes de robuste indtryk af tilstanden på boligmarkedet. Det indtryk blev ikke påvirket af, at FHFA s boligprisindeks steg lidt mindre end ventet i august. Antallet af nytilmeldte ledige fastholdt i sidste uge stort set det uventet lave niveau fra ugen før. Således er fire-ugers gennemsnittet nu nået ned på det laveste niveau siden Kina: Boligpriserne steg i september i over halvdelen (39) af de 70 største byområder for første gang i 17 måneder understøttet af rentenedsættelser og lempede lånerestriktioner. Sidstnævnte medvirkede til at prisstigningerne nu i højere grad havde bredt sig til mindre byområder. Dog aftog prisvæksten (m/m) i forhold til august. Japan: PMI-fremstillingsindekset steg overraskende i oktober til 52,5 fra forrige 51,0. Der var ventet et lille fald, men i stedet noget indekset op i højeste niveau siden marts Det stod lidt i kontrast til de seneste skuffende eksporttal, og taler isoleret set for, at BoJ ikke lemper pengepolitikken i næste uge. Storbritannien: Detailsalget accelererede kraftigere end ventet i september, med en stigning på hele 1,9% m/m, hvilket var den største stigning siden Oven på en mere flad udvikling de forrige to måneder betyder det dog, at salgsvæksten har været rimelig stabil i 3. kvartal i fht. 2. kvartal. Danmark: Gårsdagens tal for tilstanden i privatforbruget var umiddelbart ganske positiv læsning, idet detailsalget isoleret set peger på den største kvartalsvise fremgang i privatforbruget siden 2007 i 3. kvartal. Godt nok faldt forbrugertilliden samtidigt for 7. måned i træk, hvilket aldrig er sket tidligere, men det vurderer vi fortsat primært skyldes den meget stærke optimisme observeret i begyndelsen af året var ude af trit med det faktiske forbrug, og formentlig trukket af faldende energipriser samt euforien der på det tidspunkt herskede på aktiemarkederne samt ikke mindst stigninger i boligpriserne. Således er der nu bedre overensstemmelse mellem tillid og faktisk forbrug. EUR svækkes men ikke til september-niveau Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. oktober 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,77% / indeks 974,69) endte i positivt territorium på en dag, hvor investorernes fokus primært var rettet mod rentemødet i den europæiske centralbank og en række interessante regnskaber. Som ventet bød dagens rentemøde ikke på yderligere lempelser om end centralbankchef Mario Draghi ikke udelukkede yderligere lempelser senere på året, hvis det bliver nødvendigt. Denne melding var noget som investorerne tog pænt imod, hvilket resulterede i, at aktierne steg og renterne faldt. I toppen af indekset endte Novozymes (+10,81% / kurs 307,60) idet enzymselskabet rapporterede et regnskab der var bedre end frygtet, hvilket investorerne kvitterede med at sende aktien på himmelflugt. Således endte både indtjeningen og nettoresultatet højere end ventet, mens omsætningen endte en spids under forventningerne. Samtidig meddelte Novozymes, at indtjeningsvæksten for helåret ventes at være på omkring 15% mod 15-17% tidligere. Chr. Hansen Holding (+0,97% / kurs 395,10) endte højere efter en række internationale finanshuse har været ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien i kølvandet på gårsdagens stærke regnskab. Renter Rentemarkederne udviklet sig rimeligt stabilt frem mod eftermiddagens vigtige rentemøde i ECB. På rentemødet bed finansmarkederne især fast i, at Draghi lovede en revurdering af de pengepolitiske lempelser på decembermødet, hvilket blev taget som et vink i retning af at ECB er tilbøjelig til at levere nye stimulanstiltag her. Det sendte renterne pænt nedad i Europa. Det blev senere på dagen suppleret med et lidt større fald i forbrugertilliden i euroområdet end ventet. I USA fulgte renterne med ned, men de rettede sig hjulpet af stærke tal for antallet af nye ledige samt boligomsætningen. Således endte renterne her med en mere flad udvikling over dagen. Valuta EUR var især i fokus i forbindelse med rentemødet i ECB. På rentemødet bed finansmarkederne især fast i, at Draghi lovede en revurdering af de pengepolitiske lempelser på december-mødet, hvilket blev taget som et vink i retning af at ECB er tilbøjelig til at levere nye stimulanstiltag her. Det sendte EUR generelt svagere. Dertil skulle lægges et større-end ventet fald i forbrugertilliden. USD blev også styrket mod EUR, og derudover fik en stærkere USD støtte fra robuste tal for antallet af nye ledige samt salget af eksisterende boliger. GBP blev styrket efter at detailsalgstal for september viste sig langt højere end ventet. JPY blev også styrket mod EUR, men den gode aktiestemning i kølvandet på ECBmødet indebar en svækket JPY mod USD. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. oktober 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Nordea 3. kvartal Ringkjøbing Landbobank 3. kvartal Chr. Hansen 4. kvartal Ôssur 3. kvartal Novozymes 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :01 UK Rightmove House Prices MoM/YoY Oct %/6.4% 0.6%/5.6% :00 Kina Retail Sales YoY Sep 10.8% % 10.9% :00 Kina Industrial Production YoY Sep 6.0% % 5.7% :00 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Sep 10.8% % 10.3% :00 Kina GDP SA QoQ/YoY 3Q 1.8%/6.8% 1.8%/6.8% 1.7%/7.0% 1.8%/6.9% :00 EMU SSM's Nouy Speaks in European Parliament Panel in Brussels :00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Oct (r) :30 USA Housing Starts Sep 1142k K(r) 1206K :30 USA Building Permits Sep 1163k K(r) 1103K :00 Belgien Consumer Confidence Index Oct :00 USA Fed's Dudley, Powell Speak at Market Conference in New York :00 USA Fed Chair Yellen Makes Brief Welcoming Remarks at Ceremony :50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Sep b b b :30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Sep 9.0b b 8.6b :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 16. okt % 11.8% :45 Kina MNI October Business Indicator :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Oct :00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Oct :00 Danmark Retail Sales MoM/YoY Sep %/ %/0.5%(r) 0.0%/2.0% :00 EMU ECB Publishes Monthly Report :45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 22. okt 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% :45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 22. okt -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% :45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 22. okt 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Sep :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 17. okt 265K k 259K :00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Aug 0.5% % 0.3% :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 18. okt :00 EMU Consumer Confidence Oct A % :00 USA Existing Home Sales Sep 5.36m m 5.55m :00 USA Leading Index Sep -0.1% % -0.2% :00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct :30 Kina China September Property Prices :35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct P :00 Frankrig Markit France Composite PMI Oct P :30 Tyskland Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P :00 Belgien Business Confidence Oct :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P EMU ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC