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1 23. september 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens klart vigtigste nøgletal må være flash-estimaterne for PMI fra euroområdet. Vi forventer, at Composite PMI vil udvikle sig rimelig stabilt på 52,7 i september ned fra 52,9 i august. Konsensus venter 52,8. Det investor-baserede Sentix-barometer har indikeret uændret niveau, mens de finansielle betingelser viser lidt potentiale for en stigning. Service-PMI-indekset venter vi vil falde en smule i overensstemmelse med at arbejdsløshedsfaldet senest er bremset yderligere op, men det seneste overraskende stærke detailsalg bringer usikkerhed om faldet. Konsensus venter uændret service-pmi. Stemningen i fremstillingssektoren i euroområdet er ofte afhængig af signaler fra de globale tendenser, og mens det amerikanske ISM skuffede kraftigt i august, overraskede britisk fremstillings-pmi markant på opsiden (se figur). Men i betragtning af nylige svage industriproduktionstal og aftagende støtte fra tidligere olieprisfald, forventer vi en svagere fremstillings-pmi for euroområdet i september. Konsensus venter også et fald. Inden euroområdets PMI offentliggøres, kommer først fransk og dernæst tysk PMI. I eftermiddag kommer PMI for USA, pendanten til det tættere fulgte ISMindeks. Flere Fed-folk går på talerstolen i aften, og måske nogle føler trang til at melde ud om deres ståsted efter rentemødet i forgårs. Den officielle rentemeddelelse og Fed-chef Yellens udtalelser bestyrkede os i vores tro på, at den næste renteforhøjelse kommer til december. Globale fremstillingsindeks divergerer Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder havde store stigninger i går, som primært var drevet af de dueagtige toner fra den amerikanske centralbank onsdag aften efter børsluk i Europa. De amerikanske aktier, som allerede var steget onsdag, fortsatte med stigninger i går, men ikke nær så markant som i Europa. Obligationsrenterne faldt markant efter Fed ikke lød som om renten vil blive hævet hurtigt, og USD svækkedes over for EUR. Her til morgen ser festen dog ud til at være slut på de asiatiske aktiebørser. USA: Salget af eksisterende boliger skuffede igen i august med et fald selvom der var ventet en stigning. Den positive side af historien er, at det faldende salg tilsyneladende skyldes få boliger til salg frem for lav efterspørgsel. Euroområdet: Bankerne i euroområdet trak tilsammen 45,3 mia. EUR på ECB s anden likviditetstildeling under TLTROII-programmet. Det er mere end på den første tildeling i juni, hvor bankerne netto lånte 31 mia, men ikke ligefrem prangende. Det afgørende er, om likviditeten bliver kanaliseret videre til den private sektor eller ej. Forbrugertilliden steg til -8,2 i september fra -8,5 i august på linje med konsensusestimatet. Stigningen skyldes nok lavere energipriser, lavere ledighed og fortsat højere aktiekurser (over de seneste to måneder). Kina: MNI-erhverstillidsindikatoren steg lidt i september, sådan at et tomåneders glidende gennemsnit har ligget stabilt på et højt niveau de seneste tre måneder (se figur). Det tyder på en stigning i de to fremstillings-pmi, når de offentliggøres om en uge. Japan: PMI for fremstillingssektoren steg til 50,3 i september fra 49,5 i august. Det var den fjerde måned i træk med stigning, og det tyder altså på, at den japanske industri tager JPY-styrkelsen i stiv arm. Danmark: Forbrugertilliden faldt fra 4,8 til 1,8 i september, hvilket var en anelse svagere end vores forventning om et fald til 2,5. Renset for sæsonudsving faldt tilliden fra 3,9 til 1,7 - det laveste niveau siden maj Detailsalget faldt med 0,2% m/m i august, hvilket var anden måned i træk med tilbagegang. Faldet var på linje med vores forventninger, især trukket ned af et fald i salget af tøj og sko, men også fødevarer var ramt. Samlet er udviklingen i tråd med vores forventninger om, at væksten i privatforbruget bremser op i 2. halvår Norge: Norges Bank holdt som ventet renten uændret på 0,5%. I seneste rapport fra juni signalerede banken ellers en 100% sandsynlighed for en rentenedsættelse i går, men siden da har inflationen overrasket på opsiden. Norges Bank opjusterede således den forventede rentebane, så den nu peger på uændrede renter fremover men med større chance for en rentenedsættelse end en forhøjelse. USA: Skuffelse i salget af eksisterende boliger Kilde: Macrobond Kina: Stærk industritillid i september Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. september 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (+0,55% / indeks 1.045,35) endte i positivt territorium og fulgte dermed strømmen fra de resterende europæiske aktieindeks. Den positive stemning var præget af onsdagens rentemøder i den amerikanske og japanske centralbank. Således gav centralbankchef Janet Yellens udtalelser indtrykket af en renteforhøjelse endnu ikke kan retfærdiggøres taget den økonomiske vækst og inflationsniveauet i betragtning. I toppen af indekset endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+3,43% / kurs ,00) efter selskabet endelig kunne løfte sløret for deres længe ventede strategiplan. Strategiplanen indeholder blandt andet en opsplitning af selskabet. Således skal selskabet opsplittes i et transport- og logistikdivision samt en energidivision. Derudover vil A.P. Møller-Mærsk forsøge at skille sig af med alle olierelaterede forretningsenheder, hvilket blev taget vel imod investorerne. I den anden ende af indekset endte Novo Nordisk (-1,20% / kurs 304,00) som følge af fornyet frygt for øget prispres i USA. Renter De tyske og danske obligationsrenter faldt markant fra morgenstunden i går. Det skyldtes selvfølgelig rentemødet i den amerikanske centralbank, Fed, aftenen før. Således var de amerikanske renter allerede faldet over hele kurven onsdag aften, Der var ingen renteforhøjelse, og Fed nedskrev samtidigt udsigterne til renteforhøjelser over de kommende år. Det betød således mindre, at flere og flere FOMCmedlemmer ser behov for en renteforhøjelse på den korte bane (sandsynligvis i december). Faldene fortsatte over dagen i går, så både den tyske og danske 10-årige statsrente endte med at være faldet med tæt på 0,1 procentpoint. Hermed faldt den danske 10- årige statsrente tilbage under nul. De amerikanske renter faldt også igen i går, og den 10-årige amerikanske statsrente er også faldet med omkring 10 basispunkter samlet siden Fed-mødet. Valuta EUR styrkedes over for USD i går, og fortsatte dermed styrkelsen, som blev sat i gang af de blødere signaler fra den amerikanske centralbank onsdag aften. Det vendte dog i går eftermiddag. JPY er svækket over for USD trods den generelle USD-svækkelse siden Fed-mødet. Det skyldes nok den generelt gode stemning og forøgede risikoappetit som følge af udsigten til lempeligere pengepolitik end tidligere forventet. Offentliggørelsen af japansk fremstillings- PMI her til morgen ser ikke ud til at påvirke JPY-kursen. PMI steg for fjerde måned i træk. NOK styrkedes med næsten to procent over for EUR (og DKK) i går i kølvandet på rentemødet i Norges Bank. Cebtralbanken holdt som ventet renten uændret på 0,5%, men opjusterede den forventede rentebane, så den nu peger på uændrede renter fremover men med større chance for en rentenedsættelse end en forhøjelse. I seneste rapport fra juni viste rentebanen ellers 100% sandsynlighed for en rentenedsættelse på mødet i går. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA USD/DKK Euroland EUR/DKK UK GBP/DKK Danmark CHF/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. september 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 19/09/16 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Sep %/4.1% 0.7%/4.0% 19/09/16 03:30 Kina China August Property Prices Aug 19/09/16 10:00 EMU ECB Current Account SA Jul b 21.0b 19/09/16 10:30 Italien Current Account Balance Jul m 9418m 19/09/16 11:00 EMU Construction Output (MoM/YoY) Jul %/0.6% 1.8%/3.1% 19/09/16 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Sep /09/16 08:00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.0%/-1.6% %/-2.0% -0.1%/-1.6% 20/09/16 09:00 Danmark Property Prices Q2 20/09/16 14:30 USA Housing Starts Aug 1190k k 1142k 20/09/16 14:30 USA Building Permits Aug 1164k k 1139k 21/09/16 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Aug 494.0b b 408.4b 21/09/16 01:50 Japan Exports/Imports (YoY) Aug -4.7%/-16.6% %/-24.7% -9.6%/-17.3% 21/09/16 Japan BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base 21. Sep 80t 80t 21/09/16 Japan BOJ Policy Rate 21. Sep -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 21/09/16 08:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) Aug F % -8.4% 21/09/16 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Jul 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 21/09/16 10:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Aug 10.2b b 10.5b 21/09/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 16. Sep % -7.3% 21/09/16 15:00 Kina Conference Board Leading Economic Index Aug 21/09/16 20:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 21. Sep 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 21/09/16 20:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 21. Sep 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 22/09/16 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Sep /09/16 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Sep /09/16 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.4%/-0.7% -0.3%/- -0.6%/-2.0% -0.2%/0.2% 22/09/16 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates 22. Sep 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 22/09/16 11:30 EMU TLTRO II -second allotment 22/09/16 12:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Sep /09/16 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Aug /09/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 17. Sep 261k k 252k 22/09/16 15:00 EMU ECB President Draghi Speaks 22/09/16 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Jul 0.3% % 0.5% 22/09/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Economic Expectations Sep /09/16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 18. Sep /09/16 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Sep A /09/16 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Aug 5.45m m 5.33m 22/09/16 16:00 USA Leading Index Aug 0.0% % -0.2% 22/09/16 17:00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Sep /09/16 02:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Sep P /09/16 03:45 Kina MNI Business Indicator Sep 23/09/16 08:45 EMU ECB's Constancio Speaks 23/09/16 08:45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F 0.0%/1.4% %/1.4% 23/09/16 09:00 Frankrig Markit France Composite PMI Sep P /09/16 09:30 Tyskland Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Sep P /09/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep P /09/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Sep P /09/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Sep P /09/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep P /09/16 18:00 USA Fed's Harker, Mester, Lockhart, Kaplan speaks Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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6 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Eldestrand Head of Debt Capital Markets Sweden Måns Niklasson Head of Corporate Loans and Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Lars Henriksson Foreign Exchange Strategist Macro Research Ann Öberg Chief Economist Jimmy Boumediene Head of Forecasting Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman E. Europe, Emerging Markets, Japan Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research, Norway; UK Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Senior Economist, Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Jaan Kivilo Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC