Københavns Universitet. Skovenes mulige rolle i klimapolitikken Anthon, Signe; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark. Publication date: 2003

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1 university of copenhagen Københavns Universitet Skovenes mulige rolle i klimapolitikken Anthon, Signe; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark Publication date: 2003 Document Version Også kaldet Forlagets PDF Citation for published version (APA): Anthon, S., Jacobsen, J. B., & Thorsen, B. J. (2003). Skovenes mulige rolle i klimapolitikken: En scenarioanalyse af CO2-reduktionspotentiale. Skov & Landskab, Københavns Universitet. Download date: 09. jun

2 Center for Skov, Landskab og Planlægning Skovenes mulige rolle i klimapolitikken En scenarioanalyse af CO2-reduktionspotentiale og marginale økonomiske omkostninger Signe Anthon, Jette Bredahl Jacobsen og Bo Jellesmark Thorsen Miljøministeriet Forskningscentret for Skov & Landskab

3 7LWHO Skovenes mulige rolle i klimapolitikken: En scenarioanalyse af CO 2 -reduktionspotentiale og marginale økonomiske omkostninger )RUIDWWHUH Signe Anthon, Jette Bredahl Jacobsen & Bo Jellesmark Thorsen 6HULHWLWHORJQU Arbejdsrapport nr også publiceret på 8GJLYHU 6NRY /DQGVNDE (FSL) %HGHVFLWHUHW Signe Anthon, Jette Bredahl Jacobsen & Bo Jellesmark Thorsen (2003): Skovenes mulige rolle i klimapolitikken: En scenarioanalyse af CO 2 -reduktionspotentiale og marginale økonomiske omkostninger. Arbejdsrapport nr.50, 6NRY /DQGVNDE (FSL), Hørsholm, s. ill. 2SODJ 10 stk. I salgs- eller reklameøjemed er eftertryk og citering af rapporten samt anvendelse af 6NRY /DQGVNDEV navn kun tilladt efter skriftlig tilladelse. 3ULV 110 kr. inkl. moms Gengivelse er tilladt med tydelig kildeangivelse. 5DSSRUWHQSDSLUXGJDYHQNDQEHVWLOOHVSn HOOHUYHGKHQYHQGHOVHWLO 6NRY /DQGVNDE (FSL) Hørsholm Kongevej Hørsholm Tlf E-post fsl@fsl.dk 6NRY /DQGVNDEHUHW FHQWHUIRUIRUVNQLQJ XQGHUYLVQLQJIRUPLGOLQJ RJUnGJLYQLQJYHGU6NRY /DQGVNDERJ3ODQO JQLQJ &HQWUHWHUHWIRUSOLJWHQGH VDPDUEHMGHPHOOHPWUH VHOYVW QGLJHLQVWLWXWLRQHU 'HQ JO9HWHULQ URJ /DQGERK MVNROH 9/ )RUVNQLQJVFHQWUHWIRU 6NRY /DQGVNDE)6/ RJ6NRYVNROHQ 2

4 Indhold,1'+2/' 6$00(1'5$*,1'/('1,1* 1.1 Skovenes potentielle rolle Marrakesh-aftalen en ramme for skovenes rolle Metoder (-61,1* 2.1 Nuværende opsparing Aktører og tilskudsordninger Privat skovrejsning Statslig skovrejsning Scenarier for ekstra skovrejsningstiltag Scenarium 1. Mindre, private skovrejsningsprojekter Scenarium 2. Store, bynære skove Scenarium 3. Store skove anlagt med henblik på miljø og natur Resultater Effekterne på CO 2 -ophobning og andre fysiske og biologiske forhold Budgetøkonomiske resultater Velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger for CO 2 -binding Følsomhed over for ændrede forudsætninger Diskussion af visse langsigtede aspekter og afledte effekter Konsekvenser af ændret arealudnyttelse Påvirkning af priser i øvrigt Langsigtede effekter 26 %,1',1*6327(17,$/(,( 6,67(5(1'( Nuværende dansk opsparing Veje til øget opsparing i skov Nogle danske scenarier på bevoksningsniveau Scenarier Resultater Potentiale på nationalt plan Konsekvenser på råtræmarkedet af en ændret drift Andre muligheder for binding af CO 2 i skov Sammenfatning 37 3

5 %,2%5 1'6(/ 4.1 Den internationale produktion af biobrændsel Den danske produktion af biobrændsel Potentiel CO 2 -effekt ved øget brug af biobrændsel i Danmark Overvejelser om omkostninger ved øget brug af træbrændsler Sammenfatning 42 '(,17(51$7,21$/(08/,*+('(5 5.1 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Skovrejsning under CDM Joint Implementation (JI) Handel med CO 2 -kreditter CO 2 -priser Sammenfatning 49 6$00(1)$77(1'( 21 /86, Sammenstilling af resultater Bullet-liste med pointer og perspektiver 53 5()(5(1&(5 4

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20 WKRQRJ7KRUVHQ'HWIRUXGV WWHVLEHUHJQLQJHUQHDWNRPPXQHUQHHUYLOOLJHWLO DWILQDQVLHUHGHOHDIGLVVHSURMHNWHU²VDPOHWPHGHWEHO EVYDUHQGHWLOGHVWLJHQGH HMHQGRPVY UGLHURJKXVSULVHUGHUJDYQHUNRPPXQHUQHVVNDWWHJUXQGODJ Scenarium 3. Store skove anlagt med henblik på miljø og natur. 'HQQHVLGVWHW\SHDIVNRYUHMVQLQJVSURMHNWHUHULNNHVnDOPLQGHOLJHPHQNDQY UHPHG WLODWIUHPPHHQU NNHQDWXURJPLOM SROLWLVNHIRUPnO3URMHNWHWHUDIVDPPHVW UUHOVH VRPLVFHQDULXPRJDQO JJHVSnHWDUHDOKYRUGHUILQGHVYLJWLJHJUXQGYDQGVUHVVRXU FHUGHUHUXGVDWWHIRUIRUXUHQLQJLIUHPWLGHQVnIUHPWGHULNNHSODQWHVVNRY6DPWLGLJ SODQO JJHVSURMHNWHUVnIRUPLQGVNHOVHQDIQLWUDWXGYDVNQLQJWLORYHUIODGHYDQGEOLYHU VW UVWPXOLJWRJGHQELRORJLVNHPDQJIROGLJKHGIRUEHGUHVPHVWPXOLJW'HWWHJ UHV EnGHYHGYDOJDIO YWU DUWHURJHQVNnQVRPGULIWKYRUSHVWLFLGHURJJ GQLQJHUXGHODGW RJKYRUGULIWHQIRUHJnUVNnQVRPWRJPHGKHQV\QWLOQDWXUHQ$IVDPPHJUXQGDIQnOH WU KHOWXGHOXNNHWDISURMHNWHW3URMHNWHWHULNNHE\Q UWEHOLJJHQGHPHQKDUHQUHJLR QDOUHNUHDWLYY UGLSJDGHPDQJHQDWXURSOHYHOVHU-DJWPXOLJKHGHUQHHUJRGHRJEOLYHU XGQ\WWHW 6FHQDULXPHURJVnVWDWVOLJVNRYUHMVQLQJRJGHWIRUXGV WWHVLEHUHJQLQJHUQHDWGHU WLOSODQWHVKDRPnUHW'HWWHJLYHUVDPPHQPHGVFHQDULXPHQIRUGREOLQJDIGHQ VWDWVOLJHLQGVDWV'HWIRUXGV WWHVSnILQDQVLHULQJVVLGHQDWYDQGY UNHUYLOY UHYLOOLJHWLO DWPHGILQDQVLHUHVNRYUHMVQLQJSnJUXQGYDQGVUHVHUYRLUHULHQYLVXGVWU NQLQJ 2.4 Resultater,GHWWHDIVQLWUHGHJ UHVI UVWIRUGHNRQNUHWHHIIHNWHUSnRSKREQLQJHQDI&2RJDQ GUHI\VLVNHYLUNQLQJHUDIGHWNRPELQHUHGHVFHQDULXPEHVNUHYHWRYHQIRURJGHUHIWHU JHQQHPJnVGHIRUVNHOOLJH NRQRPLVNHNRQVHNYHQVHUYHGGHWUHW\SHUJUXQGVFHQDULHU %HUHJQLQJHUQHE\JJHUSnHQU NNHSDUWLHOOHVWXGLHUDIGHQYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNHY UGL DIVNRYRJVNRYUHMVQLQJ'HQVDPIXQGV NRQRPLVNHPHWRGHI OJHUJHQHUHOWµ6DP IXQGV NRQRPLVNYXUGHULQJDIPLOM SURMHNWHUµ0 OOHUHWDO$OOHVWXGLHUQHKDU XQGHUV JWGHQYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNHY UGLSnHQVDPOHWVNRYHOOHUVRPL'XEJDDUG DOOH'DQPDUNVVNRYH+HURPUHJQHVWLOVW UUHOVHUSUKDHQPHJHWEUXJWUHJQH HQKHGGHUGRJDOWLGVNDOWDJHVPHGIRUEHKROGGDGHULNNHQ GYHQGLJYLVHUWDOHRPHQ OLQH UVDPPHQK QJPHOOHPVNRYHQVVW UUHOVHRJGHQYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNHY UGL 9 UGLHQDIVNRYUHMVQLQJHQLGHWUHVFHQDULHUHUEHUHJQHWVRPQXWLGVY UGLLNUKD'HQ EHQ\WWHGHUHQWHHUPHQI OVRPKHGVEHUHJQLQJHUHURJVnJHQQHPI UWYHG HUGHQVDPIXQGV NRQRPLVNHUHQWHIRGGHUJHQHUHOWDQYHQGHVL0LOOM PLQLVWHULHWVDQDO\ VHU6NRYHQV&2 RSWDJHURJVnGLVNRQWHUHWPHGIRUDWY JWHHWWLGOLJW&2 RSWDJ K MHUHHQGHWVHQW3ULVHQSn&2 ELQGLQJLVNRYHUEHUHJQHWLNUW&2 VRPQXWLGV Y UGLHQSUKDHIWHUDWDOOHRPNRVWQLQJHURJEHQHILWVHULQGUHJQHWLIRUKROGWLOGHWIRU YHQWHGH&2 RSWDJ Effekterne på CO 2 -ophobning og andre fysiske og biologiske forhold Effekten af tiltaget er en øget CO 2 -binding på i gennemsnit 0,034 Mt CO 2 /år i IRU SOLJWLJHOVHVSHULRGHQRJ0W&2nULnU'HQEHUHJQHGHUHGXNWLRQLSHULR GHQIRUXGV WWHUDWVNRYUHMVQLQJHQRSQnUELRPDVVHOLJHY JWLHQDOGHUDInU KYRUHIWHUDUHDOHWLNNHO QJHUHKDUQRJHQHIIHNWVRPVLQN 19

21 0DQVNDOY UHRSP UNVRPSnDWGHUXGRYHUGHQGLUHNWH&2ELQGLQJHUHQGLUHNWH IORZHIIHNWDIDWVWRSSHODQGEUXJVGULIWHQLIRUPDIPLQGUHXGOHGQLQJDI&2RJDQGUH GULYKXVJDVVHUIUDSURGXNWLRQHQSnDUHDOHWVYDUHQGHWLOHQVDPOHWP QJGHSn0W &2nULIRUSOLJWLJHOVHVSHULRGHQ'HQQHUHGXNWLRQHULQGUHJQHWLGHQYHOI UGV NRQR PLVNHDQDO\VHDIDOOHWUHVFHQDULHUSn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nHQU NNHRPUnGHU KHUXQGHUSHVWLFLGHURJNY OVWRIIRUXUHQLQJVDPWOXJWJHQHU'HUXGRYHUYLOGHURSVWnHW UHGXFHUHWXGVOLSYHGRYHUJDQJWLOGHQPHUHPDVNLQHNVWHQVLYHVNRYGULIWDIHQU NNH DQGUHPLOM VNDGHOLJHJDVVHUVRP62[HURJ12[HU(QGHOLJYLOVNRYHQHLVLJVHOYUH SU VHQWHUHQRJOHSRVLWLYHJHYLQVWHULIRUPDIIHNVIRUEHGUHGHPXOLJKHGHUIRUUHNUHDWL RQRJIULOXIWVOLYLV UYLJWLJWLGHE\Q UHVNRYHIRUEHGUHGHPXOLJKHGHUIRUMDJWVDPW SnDQGUHPnGHUIRUEHGUHGHYLONnUIRUELRGLYHUVLWHWRJPDQJHDIGHVnUEDUHDUWHU9HO I UGV NRQRPLVNHHVWLPDWHUIRUY UGLHQDIHQU NNHDIGLVVHHIIHNWHUHUV JWRSJMRUW YHGGHOVHQSULP UXQGHUV JHOVHDIE\Q UVNRYUHMVQLQJRJGHOVDQYHQGHOVHDIEHQHILW WUDQVIHU$QWKRQRJ7KRUVHQ Budgetøkonomiske resultater 'HEXGJHW NRQRPLVNHRPNRVWQLQJHUIRUGHOHVSnILUHIRUVNHOOLJHDNW UHU6WDWHQ(8 ODQGEUXJHUQHRJGH YULJHSULYDWHKXVKROGQLQJHU+YLVHQWHQNRPPXQHUHOOHUYDQG Y UNHUPHGILQDQVLHUHUSURMHNWHWKDUGHWRJVnEXGJHW NRQRPLVNHNRQVHNYHQVHUIRU GHP (MHUIRUKROGRJN ERJVDOJDIMRUGKDUVnOHGHVEHW\GHOLJHEXGJHW NRQRPLVNHHIIHNWHU XDQVHWDWGHWLNNHXPLGGHOEDUWKDUQRJOHYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNHNRQVHNYHQVHUGDGHWL GHQVDPPHQK QJPnEHWUDJWHVVRPHWRPIRUGHOLQJVWLOWDJ'HWVDPPHJ OGHUIRU(8V ODQGEUXJVWLOVNXGRJWLOVNXGWLOSULYDWHOOHURIIHQWOLJVNRYUHMVQLQJ'HWUHVFHQDULHUKDU PHJHWIRUVNHOOLJHIRUGHOLQJVP VVLJHNRQVHNYHQVHU 6FHQDULXPHUSULYDWVNRYUHMVQLQJKYRUVWDWHQRJ(8GHOHVRPILQDQVLHULQJHQ'H EXGJHW NRQRPLVNHYLUNQLQJHUHUEHJU QVHGH(8KDURYHUVNXGYHGSURMHNWHWGDODQG EUXJVWLOVNXGGHWHUVW UUHHQGWLOVNXGGHWWLOVNRYUHMVQLQJ)RUVWDWHQHUGHWWHSURMHNWGHW ELOOLJVWHGDGHQHQHVWHRPNRVWQLQJHUKDOYGHOHQDIVNRYUHMVQLQJVWLOVNXGGHW Tabel 2.1 De budgetøkonomiske konsekvenser af de tre scenarier i kr./ha. Kalkulationsrente 6%. Scenarium 1 Scenarium 2 Scenarium 3 Staten EU Landbrugerne Husholdningerne Kommuner Vandværker

22 6FHQDULXPKDUODQJWVW UUHEXGJHW NRQRPLVNHNRQVHNYHQVHUHQGGH YULJHLV UIRU KXVHMHUHLRPUnGHW8QGHUV JHOVHUKDUYLVWDWKXVHGHUOLJJHUW WYHGVNRYUHMVQLQJRS OHYHUHQSULVVWLJQLQJVYDUHQGHWLOVWLJQLQJIRUKXVSULVHUQHLJHQQHPVQLWLQGWLO PHWHUIUDVNRYHQ$QWKRQRJ7KRUVHQ'HUYHGInUKXVKROGQLQJHUQH en NRQR PLVNJHYLQVWGHUVDPOHWHUSnNUSUKDE\Q UVNRY'HQQHKXVSULVVWLJQLQJ JHUNRPPXQHQVVNDWWHLQGW JWIUDHMHQGRPVY UGLVNDWWHQPHGFDNUKDVn GHQVDPOHGHJHYLQVWIRUKXVHMHUQHHUSnNUKD'HUIRUXGV WWHVLEHUHJQLQJHQ DWGHQSnJ OGHQGHNRPPXQHPHGILQDQVLHUHUSURMHNWHWVYDUHQGHWLOGHQ JHGHVNDWWH LQGW JW'LVVHEHUHJQLQJHUDIK QJHUPHJHWDIVW UUHOVHQIRUVNRYHQRJVW UUHOVHQRJ DUWHQDIQ UOLJJHQGHEROLJRPUnGHUMRVW UUHVNRYHQHUMRPLQGUHYLOHIIHNWHQY UHSU KDRJMRIOHUHEROLJHULQ UKHGHQMRVW UUHYLOHIIHNWHQY UH3URMHNWHWHUKHOWRPNRVW QLQJVQHXWUDOWIRUNRPPXQHQGDPHGILQDQVLHULQJHQSU FLVVYDUHUWLOGHQ JHGHVNDWWH LQGW JW0HGILQDQVLHULQJHQPLQGVNHURPNRVWQLQJHUQHIRUVWDWHQPHQSURMHNWHWHU DOOLJHYHOGHWG\UHVWHIRUVWDWHQEODQGWDQGHWSJDK MUHRPNRVWQLQJHUWLOSXEOLNXPVIDFL OLWHWHU(8JLYHULGDJLNNHWLOVNXGWLOVWDWVOLJVNRYUHMVQLQJRJKDUGHUIRUHWVWRUWRYHU VNXGYHGSURMHNWHWSnJUXQGDIERUWIDOGHWDIODQGEUXJVWLOVNXG/DQGP QGHQHIRUXG V WWHVDWY UHGHOWLGVHOOHUKHOWLGVODQGP QG 6FHQDULXPILQDQVLHUHVDIVWDWHQVDPPHQPHGHWRIIHQWOLJHOOHUSULYDWYDQGY UN 9DQGY UNHWVPHGILQDQVLHULQJVYDUHUWLOGHJHQQHPVQLWOLJHDOWHUQDWLYRPNRVWQLQJHURJ SURMHNWHWHUGHUIRUEXGJHW NRQRPLVNQHXWUDOWIRUYDQGY UNHW)RUVWDWHQEHW\GHUGHW DWRPNRVWQLQJHUPLQGVNHVPHGFDNUKD/DQGP QGHQHInUHQJHYLQVWYHGDW V OJHMRUGHQGHUHUVW UUHHQGODQGEUXJVLQGWMHQLQJHQ'HWIRUXGV WWHVLEHUHJQLQJHQDW LQGWMHQLQJHQVYDUHUWLOGHQJHQQHPVQLWOLJHODQGEUXJVLQGWMHQLQJIRUKHOWLGVRJGHO WLGVODQGP QG(8JLYHULGDJLNNHWLOVNXGWLOVWDWVOLJVNRYUHMVQLQJRJKDUGHUIRUHWVWRUW RYHUVNXGYHGSURMHNWHW Velfærdsøkonomiske omkostninger for CO 2 -binding 'HQYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNHY UGLDIVNRYUHMVQLQJYDULHUHUPHJHWPHOOHPGHWUHVFHQDULHU 7DEHOYLVHUSULVHQSn&2YHGLPSOHPHQWHULQJDIKYHUWVFHQDULXP'HQPHJHWQHJD WLYH&2SULVIRUVFHQDULXPYHGHQUHQWHSnVN\OGHVDWVFHQDULHWKDUHQVWRU YHOI UGV NRQRPLVNY UGL%nGHVFHQDULXPRJKDUHQSRVLWLY&2SULVPHQSULVHQ IRU&2ELQGLQJLVFHQDULXPHUODYHUHHQGLVFHQDULXP+YLVHQDOWHUQDWLYUHQWHSn EHQ\WWHVHUVFHQDULXPVWDGLJGHWPHVWIRUGHODJWLJHGHUHIWHUI OJHUVFHQDULXP RJWLOVLGVWVFHQDULXP Tabel 2.2 Den velfærdsøkonomiske pris på CO 2 -lagring i skov beregnet ved 6% og 3% rente. Prisen er angivet i kr./t CO 2. Pris ved 6% Pris ved 3% Scenarium 1 Lille privat projekt Scenarium 2 Stor bynær skov Scenarium 3 Stor skov med miljø- og naturhensyn ,GHWI OJHQGHNLJJHVGHUOLGWQ UPHUHSnEDJJUXQGHQIRUGHOUHVXOWDWHUQHLWDEHO 'HWI UVWHVFHQDULXPHUHWPLQGUHSULYDWVNRYUHMVQLQJVSURMHNW7DEHOYLVHUGHYHO I UGV NRQRPLVNHRPNRVWQLQJHURJJHYLQVWHU'HQQXY UHQGHWLOVNXGVRUGQLQJKDU PHGI UWHQW\SHSURMHNWHUPHGHQJHQQHPVQLWVVW UUHOVHSnKD6nGDQQHSURMHNWHUKDU HQOLOOHYHOI UGVP VVLJNRQVHNYHQVPHQRJVnVPnRPNRVWQLQJHU'HQW\SLVNHVNRYUHM 21

23 VHUHUGHOWLGVODQGPDQGRJKDUGHUIRUHQODYHUHRIIHURPNRVWQLQJYHGDWSODQWHVNRY LUNHE NRJ7KRUPDQQ/DQGEUXJHWVUHJQVNDEYLVHUDWGHOWLGVEHGULIWHUJHQ QHPVQLWOLJWKDUHWODYWGULIWVUHVXOWDW6WDWHQV-RUGEUXJVRJ)LVNHUL NRQRPLVNH,QVWLWXW 'HUHULQJHQV UOLJHSRVLWLYHHNVWHUQDOLWHWHUYHGVNRYUHMVQLQJHQSnJUXQGDIGHQ ULQJHVW UUHOVHVRPJ UGHQXDQYHQGHOLJWLOIHNVEHVN\WWHOVHDIJUXQGYDQGVUHVHUYRLUHU HOOHUIRUEHGULQJDIRYHUIODGHYDQGHWVNYDOLWHW6DPWLGLJHUGHWUHNUHDWLYHSRWHQWLDOHOLOOH EnGHSnJUXQGDIVW UUHOVHQRJDGJDQJVPXOLJKHGHUQHGHUNDQY UHEHJU QVHGH-HQ VHQ'HWDQYHQGWHHVWLPDWVWDPPHUIUD'XEJDDUGGHUKDUXQGHUV JW EHIRONQLQJHQVVDPOHGHEHWDOLQJVYLOMHIRUDWKDYHDGJDQJWLOVNRY+HUEHQ\WWHVHWHVWL PDWGHUHUDIGHWRSULQGHOLJHGDGHQUHNUHDWLYHY UGLSUKDIRUYHQWHVDWY UH PLQGUHHQGJHQQHPVQLWWHWYHGGLVVHW\SHUVNRYUHMVQLQJVSURMHNWHU'HQYHOI UGV NR QRPLVNHY UGLDISURMHNWHWHUNUKDVNRYUHMVQLQJ3ULVHQHUNUW&2YHG HQUHQWHIRGSnSULP UWVWDPPHQGHIUDHQQHJDWLYLQGWMHQLQJYHGVNRYGULIWRJGHQ WDEWHODQGEUXJVLQGWMHQLQJ Tabel 2.3 Den velfærdsøkonomiske værdi af et mindre privat skovrejsningsprojekt (scenarium 1) angivet som nutidsværdien i kr./ha skov. Kalkulationsrente 6%. Værdi Kilde Kr. Skovdrift Dansk Skovforening Landbrug Statens Jordbrugs- og Fiskeriøkonomiske inst., Jagt Dansk Skovforening Skatteforvridningstab Værdi uden sideeffekter Pris/t CO Rekreative muligheder Dubgaard Indirekte miljøkonsekvenser Skov- og Naturstyrelsen 2001a Værdi inkl. sideeffekter Pris i kr./t CO DEHOYLVHUGHQYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNHY UGLDIVFHQDULXPVRPVYDUHUWLOHWW\SLVN VWDWVOLJWVNRYUHMVQLQJVSURMHNWDQODJWE\Q UWPHGUHNUHDWLRQIRU MH)RUKROGHWPHOOHP GHQJHQQHPVQLWOLJHVNRYVW UUHOVHRJY UGLHQIRUGHQ UOLJJHQGHEHERHOVHVRPUnGHU DQWDJHVDWVYDUHWLOGHDQDO\VHUHGHHNVHPSOHUIUD$QWKRQRJ7KRUVHQ2IIHURP NRVWQLQJHUQHYHGRSK UWODQGEUXJVGULIWHUW\SLVNK MHUHHQGIRUGHVPnSULYDWHVNRY UHMVQLQJVSURMHNWHUGDGHURSN EHVVW UUHVDPPHQK QJHQGHODQGEUXJVDUHDOHUQ UE\HU 3nJUXQGDIGHQUHNUHDWLYHPnOV WQLQJHUGHURPNRVWQLQJHUWLOSXEOLNXPVIDFLOLWHWHU EnGHHWDEOHULQJVRPNRVWQLQJHURJO EHQGHRPNRVWQLQJHUWLOGULIW'HK MHUHRPNRVW QLQJHUPRGVYDUHVGRJDIODQJWVW UUHYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNHEHQHILWV'HQYLJWLJVWHYHO I UGV NRQRPLVNHY UGLHUY UGLHQDIORNDOUHNUHDWLRQVRPE\Q UHVNRYUHMVQLQJVSUR MHNWHUPXOLJJ U(QXQGHUV JHOVHDIKXVHMHUHVEHWDOLQJVYLOMHIRUDWERLQ UKHGHQDI VNRYUHMVQLQJVSURMHNWHUKDUYLVWHQEHWDOLQJVYLOMHSnDIKXVHWVY UGL$QWKRQRJ 7KRUVHQVYDUHQGHWLONUKDVNRYLGHWWHVFHQDULXP9 UGLHQDI JHGH UHJLRQDOHPXOLJKHGHUIRUUHNUHDWLRQHUWLOJHQJ OGLNNHVnVWRUHGDGHUVRPRIWHVWYLO Y UHEHGUHPXOLJKHGHUIRUUHNUHDWLRQHQGHWKHOWQ\WVNRYUHMVQLQJVRPUnGH3nO QJHUH VLJWNDQRPUnGHWGRJInUHNUHDWLYEHW\GQLQJ9 UGLHQV WWHVDUELW UWWLODI'XE JDDUGVHVWLPDW'HQYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNHY UGLDIVFHQDULXPHU NUKDVNRYKYLONHWUHVXOWHUHULHQQHJDWLYSULVSn²NUW&2'HUUHJQHVLNNH PHGY VHQWOLJH PLOM HIIHNWHUDIVNRYUHMVQLQJHQLGHWWHVFHQDULXPVHOYRPGHWVHOYI O 22

24 JHOLJHUHQPXOLJKHGKYLVSURMHNWHUQH\GHUPHUHSODQO JJHVPHGKHQEOLNSnIHNV JUXQGYDQGVEHVN\WWHOVH. Tabel 2.4 Den velfærdsøkonomiske værdi af et stort, bynært, statsligt skovrejsningsprojekt (scenarium 2) angivet som nutidsværdien i kr./ha skov. Kalkulationsrente 6%. Værdi Kilde Kr. Skovdrift Dansk Skovforening Landbrug Statens Jordbrugs- og Fiskeriøkonomiske Inst., 2001 Publikumsfaciliteter Skov- og Naturstyrelsen 2001b Skatteforvridningstab Værdi uden sideeffekter Pris/t CO Rekreative muligheder, lokale Anthon og Thorsen Rekreative muligheder, regionale Dubgaard Indirekte miljøkonsekvenser Skov- og Naturstyrelsen 2001a Værdi inkl Pris/t CO HVXOWDWHUQHIRUGHWVLGVWHRJWUHGMHVFHQDULXPHUYLVWLWDEHO'HWHUHWVW UUHVNRY UHMVQLQJVSURMHNWGHUHUKHQODJWVSHFLHOWPHGKHQEOLNSnDWIRUEHGUHPLOM WLOVWDQGHQRJ QDWXUHQVELRORJLVNHPDQJIROGLJKHG6W UUHOVHQHUVRPLVFHQDULXPKDPHQ DUHDOHWOLJJHULNNHE\Q UW'HWUHNUHDWLYHSRWHQWLDOHHUGHUIRUPLQGUHPHQNDQGRJ Y UHY VHQWOLJW7LOJHQJ OGSODFHUHVSURMHNWHWGHUKYRUGHUHUIOHVWPLOM LQWHUHVVHUGHU NDQWLOJRGHVHV'HURSQnVHQSRVLWLYHIIHNWYHGDWPLQGVNHQLWUDWXGYDVNQLQJHQWLORYHU IODGHYDQGRJYHGDWVLNUHJUXQGYDQGUHVHUYRLUHU'HVXGHQHUGHUHQSRVLWLYHIIHNWSn GHQELRORJLVNHPDQJIROGLJKHGLRPUnGHWVRPGHVY UUHLNNHPHGULPHOLJKHGNDQY U GLV WWHVPHGEDJJUXQGLGHQIRUHOLJJHQGHYLGHQRPELRGLYHUVLWHWHQVY UGLVRPVnGDQ 3URMHNWHWKDUGHVXGHQHQPDUNHGVY UGLVRPMDJWRPUnGHGDXGOHMQLQJDIMDJWHQLNNH SnYLUNHUQRJOHDIQDWXUHOOHUPLOM KHQV\QHQHLSURMHNWHW'HQYHOI UGV NRQRPLVNH Y UGLDISURMHNWHWHU²NUKDVNRY'HWUHVXOWHUHULHQSULVSnNUW&2 Tabel 2.5 Den velfærdsøkonomiske værdi af et stort skovrejsningsprojekt, anlagt med henblik på miljø og natur (scenarium 3) angivet som nutidsværdien i kr./ha skov. Kalkulationsrente 6%. Værdi Kilde Kr. Skovdrift Dansk Skovforening Landbrug Statens Jordbrugs- og Fiskeriøkonomiske Inst., 2001 Jagt Dansk Skovforening Publikumsfaciliteter Skov- og Naturstyrelsen Skatteforvridningstab Værdi uden sideeffekter Pris kr./t CO Rekreative muligheder Dubgaard Nitrat Danmarks Miljøundersøgelser, Sikring af grundvand Miljø- og Energiministeriet Biodiversitet Viden utilstrækkelig - Indirekte miljøkonsekvenser Skov- og Naturstyrelsen Værdi med sideeffekter Pris kr./t CO