Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 1. december 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste nøgletal får vi i form af det amerikanske ISM indeks for fremstillingssektoren. Indekset har ligget og flirtet med boom-bust niveauet 50, men i markedet ventes der et lille rebound fra 50,1 til 50,5 i november. Denne forventning er formentlig primært drevet af den fornuftige stigning i det fremadskuende indeks for nye ordrer i forrige måned. Dog peger ordre-til-lager forholdet ikke på nogen markant bedring, ligesom de regionale indeks ikke for alvor peger på fremgang. Dette indtryk blev forstærket af det negative udfald af Chicago PMI i går. Vi vurderer, at risikoen for et fald til under 50 bestemt er til stede, understregende at fremstillingssektoren fortsat er under pres fra den stærke USD samt svag global efterspørgsel. Fra euroområdet får vi de endelige opgørelser af PMI-indeksene for fremstillingssektoren for november, som dog ikke ventes at afvige synderligt fra den foreløbige opgørelse. Vi vil dog holde øje med, om der er mere tydelige tegn på, at terrorangrebet i Paris har haft en større negativ indflydelse end hvad stigningen i det foreløbige PMI-indeks indikerede specielt naturligvis i Frankrig. De største effekter ventes dog fortsat på servicesiden. Vi får også tyske ledighedstal, som ventes at vise et nyt lille fald i antallet af ledige i november. Ledigheden for euroområdet som helhed ventes uændret på 10,8% - et niveau der bestemt ikke tyder på kapacitetspres i økonomien, som er et yderligere argument for ECB til at lempe pengepolitikken. Vi får ligeledes PMI-tal for fremstllingssektoren fra hhv. Norge, Sverige og UK. I Norge ventes et nyt fald at indikere fortsatte udfordringer for den olieafhængige økonomi, mens en stigning i det svenske PMI vil underbygge indtrykket af en mere solid økonomisk præstation, som også understreget af gårsdagens BNP-tal (se nedenfor). I UK ventes et fald i PMI.-indekset efter den overraskende kraftige stigning måneden før, hvilket ville være på linje med andre mindre opløftende indikatorer for fremstillingssektoren, som ligeledes er presset af en stærk valuta og svag efterspørgsel. USA: Risiko for nyt fald i ISM Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder steg pænt, men de amerikanske markeder ender i minus efter skuffende nøgletal. De asiatiske markeder stiger dog i nat Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland steg marginalt mens EUR her til morgen ligger stort set uændret over for USD. Kina: Det officielle PMI-indeks faldt fra 49,8 til 49,6 i november det svageste niveau i 3 år. Et fald i indekset for nye ordrer især på eksportsiden peger på, at situationen i fremstillingssektoren fortsat er udfordret fra svag ekstern efterspørgsel. Det officielle PMI afspejler imidlertid dog de store statsejede virksomheder og vi foretrækker derfor Caixins PMI der overraskende steg fra 48,3 til 48,6. Selv om indekset fortsat ligger under 50, kan det indikere, at hastigheden hvormed sektoren bremser op er aftagende. Det officielle PMI-indeks for servicesektoren steg fra 53,1 til 53,6, som understreger divergensen mellem sektorerne og den ønskede rebalancering over mod privatforbrug og service og væk fra industri og investeringer. Samlet er resultatet således noget blandet, men efter vores vurdering svagt positive især givet den tidligere store frygt for et kollaps i Kinas økonomi. IMF vedtog i nat at CNY vil blive inkluderet i valutafondens kurv af reservevalutaer fra d. 1/ med en vægt på 10,92% USA: Chicago-PMI faldt fra 56,2 til 48,7 i november, hvilket var væsentligt svagere end ventet, og som eliminerer det positive indtryk fra den kraftige stigning i forrige måned. Det verserende boligsalg steg kun med 0,2% m/m i oktober, hvilket var svagere end ventet. Dog blev tallene for september oprevideret, og dermed er det overordnede indtryk stadig, at vi ser en opbremsning i aktiviteten på boligmarkedet. EMU: Den tyske inflation steg fra 0,3% til 0,4% i november, som ser ser ud til at reflektere effekter fra energipriserne, mens kerneinflationen fortsat er yderst afdæmpet. Da den italienske inflation noget overraskende faldt fra 0,3% til 0,1% i november, var der ikke noget i inflationssignalerne, der vil kunne afholde ECB fra at lempe pengepolitikken yderligere på mødet på torsdag. Tysk detailsalg skuffer med et fald på 0,4% m/m i i oktober. Schweiz: KOF-indekset faldt mere end ventet fra 100,4 til 97,9 i november. Danmark: BNP-væksten i 3. kvartal endte på -0,1% q/q, hvilket var den første negative vækst siden foråret Det trak årsvækstraten ned fra 1,7% til 0,9%. Den underliggende vækst var dog endnu svagere, idet lagrene bidrog med 0,6%-point. Det var især et stort fald i vareeksporten, der sammen med en lille stigning i importen, var den primære årsag til vækstnedgangen. Privatforbruget skuffede dog også med en flad udvikling, holdt nede af et lavt forbrug af el og brændsel. Både de offentlige investeringer og boliginvesteringerne faldt. Dog bidrog de faste erhvervsinvesteringer til en svagt positiv vækst i de samlede investeringer. Overordnet føler vi os komfortable med vores skøn om en BNP-vækst i år på 1,3%. Arbejdsløsheden faldt med personer i oktober, svarende til en ledighedsprocent på 4,5%. Sverige: BNP-væksten endte på 0,8% q/q i 3. kvartal, hvilket var dobbelt så stærkt som ventet. Der var dog tale om en lille vækstnedgang fra kvartalet før, men udfaldet må alligevel siges at være yderst robust. Modsat i 2. kvartal var det primært den indenlandske efterspørgsel der trak væksten op. Eksporten steg dog også fornuftigt, men det blev modsvaret af en stigning i importen, hvormed nettoeksporten kun bidrog marginalt til den samlede vækst. Selvom Riksbanken har deres fokus på inflationen, vil den stærke vækst naturligvis ikke gå ubemærket hen, og det dæmper sandsynligheden for ny stimulans, selv efter de nye ventede lempelser fra ECB på torsdag. US: Stilstand på boligmarkedet?? DK: Vækstopbremsning i tråd med erhvervstillid For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 1. december 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,71% / indeks 1.054,98) endte i positivt territorium på ugens første handelsdag på en dag, som var forholdsvis tynd på makroøkonomiske opgørelser og begivenheder. I toppen af indekset endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+3,55% / kurs ,00) som følge af kvartalsvise justeringer af aktiernes vægt i vigtige indeks såsom det hjemlige KAX CAP-indeks, hvor rederiet er blevet vægtet op. Samme begivenhed fandt sted for både Danske Bank (+3,10% / kurs 189,50) og Chr. Hansen Holding (+3,05% / kurs 443,10). Carlsberg (+2,13% / kurs 600,50) endte også højere efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. Genmab (+1,96% / kurs 910,00) fulgte også godt med efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte TDC (-0,24% / kurs 37,09) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Obligationsrenterne i både Danmark og Tyskland steg en smule i går, til trods for lidt skuffende nøgletal. Således faldt det tyske detailsalg, og inflationen i både Tyskland og Italien pegede ikke på at inflationspresset er taget til. Det forstærker formentlig de allerede store forventninger til yderligere pengepolitiske lempelser fra ECB på torsdag, som muligvis var medvirkende til en relativt solid fremgang på de europæiske aktiemarkeder, som gav anledning til mindre appetit efter de sikre statsobligationer. Rentestigningerne blev dog holdt lidt i skak af skuffende nøgletal fra USA, med et stort fald i Chicago PMI og en mindre end ventet stigning i det verserende boligsalg, som trak ned i de amerikanske obligationsrenter. Faldet blev dog modvejet af nattens melding om at Kina fra 1/ vil blive optaget i IMF s kurv af reservevalutaer, som ventes at give anledning til mindre intervention fra Kina og dermed mindre efterspørgsel efter amerikanske aktiver. De kinesiske PMI-indeks var blandede, med fortsatte svagheder i fremstillingssektoren, om end med tegn på en vis stabilisering, mens servicesektoren viste fremgang. Valuta EUR blev svækket en smule over for USD fra morgenstunden efter skuffende tyske detailslag og svagere end ventede inflationstal fra Tyskland og Italien. Der var dog tale om marginale bevægelser. Skuffende nøgletal fra USA i form af et fald i Chicago PMI og svag vækst i de verserende bolighandler gav ikke anledning til de helt store udsving i EUR/USD krydset. GBP blev initialt svækket over for EUR efter at det nyeste medlem af Bank of Englands pengepolitiske komite udtalte, at han er komfortable med at holde renten på et rekordlavt niveau, men blev siden styrket i gen, formentlig primært som følge af en bevægelse over for USD efter de svage amerikanske nøgletal. SEK blev styrket efter at BNP-væksten i 3. kvartal viste sig dobbelt så stærk som ventet. TRY blev styrket efter weekendens forstærkede udsigter til nye forhandlinger om Tyrkiets ansøgning om medlemskab af EU, som altså vejede tungere end de russiske sanktioner over for landet. I nat blev det meldt ud, at Kina officielt vil blive optaget i Kinas kurv af reservevalutaer fra 1/ med en vægt på 10,92%. Der var ikke den store effekt på CNY, om end offshore CNY blev svækket en smule, formentlig som følge af forventninger om mindre intervention. EUR bærer størstedelen af inkluideringen med en nedjustering af dens vægt i SDR fra 37,4% til 30,93% Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 1. december 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab BoConcept Holding 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 30/11/15 00:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Oct P 1.8%/-0.9% %/-0.8% 1.4%/-1.4% 30/11/15 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.4%/2.9% %/3.5% -0.4%/2.1% 30/11/15 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Oct 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 30/11/15 09:00 Danmark GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 3Q P 0.0%/1.1% -0.1%/1.0% 0.2%/1.8% -0.1%/0.9% 30/11/15 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Nov (r) /11/15 09:30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q 0.4%/3.4% 0.4%/3.3% 1.0%/3.4% 0.8%/3.9% 30/11/15 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov P 0.1%/0.4% %/0.3% 0.1%/0.4% 30/11/15 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov /11/15 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct 1.0%/4.5% %/3.2%(r) 0.2%/2.1% 01/12/15 02:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Nov /12/15 02:00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Nov /12/15 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Nov /12/15 07:45 Schweiz GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q 0.2%/0.8% 0.1%/ 0.2%/1.2% 01/12/15 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Nov /12/15 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Nov /12/15 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Nov /12/15 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Nov 6.4% % 01/12/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F /12/15 10:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Nov /12/15 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Oct 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 01/12/15 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F /12/15 16:00 USA Construction Spending MoM Oct 0.6% % 01/12/15 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Nov /12/15 /2015 USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Nov 18.10m m 02/12/15 02:00 USA Fed's Brainard Speaks on Lower Neutral Rates 02/12/15 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Oct -0.4%/-3.2% %/-3.1% 02/12/15 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Nov 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 02/12/15 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Nov A 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 02/12/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 27. Nov % 02/12/15 14:10 USA Fed's Lockhart, Yellen, Williams Speaks 02/12/15 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Nov 190k k 02/12/15 14:30 USA Unit Labor Costs 3Q F 1.0% % 02/12/15 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Nov /12/15 20:00 USA U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 03/21/15 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Nov /12/15 07:30 Frankrig ILO Unemployment Rate 3Q 10.4% % 03/12/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Nov F /12/15 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Nov /12/15 11:00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.2%/2.6% %/2.9% 03/12/15 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Nov % 03/12/15 13:45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 03. Dec 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 03/12/15 13:45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 03. Dec -0.30% -0.30% -0.20% 03/12/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 28. Nov 270k k 03/12/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Nov F /12/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 29. Nov /12/15 16:00 USA Yellen Appears Before Congressional Joint Economic Coomittee 03/12/15 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Nov /12/15 16:00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Oct 1.4% % 03/12/15 19:10 USA Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks 04/12/15 06:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Nov /12/15 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Oct 1.2%/-2.5% %/-1.0% 04/12/15 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.0%/-1.3% %/-1.4% 04/12/15 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Oct -0.8%/4.0% 0.2%/5.4% 2.0%/6.3% 04/12/15 09:30 Tyskland Markit Germany Construction PMI Nov /12/15 10:10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Nov /12/15 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 200k 200K 271k 04/12/15 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Nov 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 04/12/15 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings YoY Nov 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 04/12/15 21:45 USA Fed's Bullard, Kocherlakota speaks Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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