Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

Transkript

1 24. november 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus IFO-indekset for det tyske erhvervsliv for november offentliggøres i dag. Vi forventer et lille fald til 108,0 fra forrige 108,2. Indekset har overrasket lidt på opsiden de seneste par måneder, hvilket især skyldes lidt uventede stigninger i forventningsindekset, som har elimineret det lidt bekymrende fald over sommeren. Vi forventer, at indekset vil falde en smule tilbage i overensstemmelse med den noget mere negative udvikling vi har set i ZEW s forventningsindeks. Her ventes især de seneste stigninger i IFO s service- og detailtillid ikke at kunne fortsætte i november, herunder indikeret af svagere faktisk detailsalg de seneste måneder. Det peger dog stadig på en vis bedring i væksten i begyndelsen af Samtidigt har et fald i IFO s vurdering af den aktuelle økonomiske tilstand peget på, at BNP-væksten ikke umiddelbart vil bedres i 4. kvartal, men vi tror dog at dette indeks stiger lidt i november. Der kommer også fransk industritillid i dag. Fra USA kommer Conference Boards forbrugertillidsopgørelse for november. Her venter vi en stigning til 99,5 i november op fra 97,6 i oktober. Det er især den seneste overraskende stærke udvikling i beskæftigelsen, der ventes at ligge bag fremgangen. Dertil skal lægges stadig lavere benzinpriser samt stigende aktiekurser, som har lukket hullet efter nedturen i august/september. En stigning i forbrugertilliden vil fastholde det robuste indtryk af forbrugspotentialet her op til den intensive juleshopping-sæson, om end det faktiske detailsalg fortsat har skuffet en smule ved ikke rigtig at være kommet op i omdrejninger de seneste to måneder. Vi får også reviderede BNP-tal for 3. kvartal. Her ventes en oprevidering af det initiale lidt skuffende estimat på 1,5% q/q annualiseret til omkring 2%. Det tilskrives et knapt så stort handelsunderskud i september som frygtet, kombineret med mindre fald i lagrene i september og august end først antaget. Endelig ventes de faste investeringer lidt højere, efter ordreindgangen viste sig større end ventet i september. Tysk IFO-indeks langt mere positivt end ZEW Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der var aktiekursfald på de fleste markeder i går, og det ser ikke bedre ud i Asien her til morgen. Det er stort set kun det japanske marked, som er i plus, måske pga. stærk japansk PMI. Der er relativt store fald på råvaremarkederne, og især prisen på industrimetaller er dykket. Råolie er dog steget lidt, måske fordi Saudi-Arabien har gentaget sit ønske som at samarbejde med OPEC og andre olieproducerende lande om at begrænse udbuddet. EUR/USD nogenlunde uændret, men relativt store obligationsrentestigninger i Europa. Japan: PMI for fremstillingssektoren steg fra 52,4 i oktober til 52,8 i november, det højeste niveau siden marts sidste år lige før momsforhøjelsen satte ind. Dermed peger PMI på, at japansk BNP havde positiv vækst i 4. kvartal efter to kvartaler med negativ vækst. USA: Fed-chef Yellen gentog i går budskabet om at pengepolitikken kun vil blive strammet ganske langsomt efter den første renteforhøjelse, og advarede om at for aggressive stramninger risikerede at tvinge Fed til at nedsætte renten til nul igen på et senere tidspunkt. Markits PMI-fremstillingsindeks faldt fra 54,1 i oktober il 52,6 i november. Der var ventet stort set uændret PMI. Markits PMI rettede således delvist ind efter det tilsvarende men mere anerkendte ISMfremstillingsindeks, som lidt skuffende er faldet de seneste fire måneder til blot 50,1. Salget af eksisterende boliger skuffede også ved at falde mere end ventet i oktober. Euroområdet: Det sammensatte PMI-indeks steg stort set som vi havde ventet i november til 54,4 fra 54,2 i oktober. Dermed nåede indekset op i det højeste niveau i 4½ år, om end indekset dog ikke har løftet sig meget over det stabile niveau fra de foregående otte måneder. Således peger det på, at den økonomiske vækst bør kunne komme lidt op i gear i 4. kvartal oven på et lidt skuffende 3. kvartal. Stigningen var større end ventet af konsensus. Tysk PMI steg til 54,9, mens Frankrigs skuffede en smule med et fald til 51,3. Sidstnævnte skyldtes et fald i service-pmi, hvilket meget vel kan skyldes terrorangrebet i Paris, som umiddelbart har nedtonet lysten til besøg på restauranter, hoteller mv. Dagens positive aflæsning af PMI-indekset giver ikke umiddelbart yderligere tyngde til argumenterne om, at risikoen er på nedsiden for ECB's vækstskøn. Flere ECB-medlemmer har understreget, at vurderingen af om der skal igangsættes ny stimulans på rentemødet i næste uge blandt andet afhænger af om vækstudsigterne skal nedjusteres. Euroområdet: Lille PMI-stigning til højeste i 4½ år Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. november 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,02% / indeks 1.027,02) endte stort set uændret på ugens første handelsdag til trods for, at de foreløbige PMI tal fra eurozonen endte i det højeste niveau i 4½ år. I bunden af indekset endte Carlsberg (- 2,20% / kurs 600,50) efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og sænke anbefalingen for aktien. I den anden ende af indekset var A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,10% / kurs ,00) at finde efter meldinger om, at konglomeratet ikke længere er med i opløbet omkring opkøbet af Singapore-rederiet Neptune Orient Lines (NOL), hvilket blev positivt modtaget af en række investorer. Samtidig steg olieprisen ud på eftermiddagen, hvilket også gav noget medvind til aktien. Uden for C20-indekset var Rockwool (-5,83% / kurs 1.018,00) i fokus efter selskabet i forbindelse med deres kapitalmarkedsdag fremlagde deres nye finansielle målsætninger om en organisk vækst på 2-4% om året for perioden og en gradvis forbedring af bruttomarginen til 10% i Det var dog mindre end markedet havde ventet, hvilket fik investorerne til at sende aktien ned. Renter Obligationsrenterne i Tyskland og dermed også i Danmark og en række andre europæiske lande steg en del i går. Det var nok den større end ventede stigning i den tyske Ifoerhvervstillidsindikator til det højeste niveau i 4½ år, som lå bag rentestigningen. Renten på både den 10-årige tyske og danske benchmark statsobligation steg således med omkring 5 basispunkter, idet den stærkere end ventede IFO ikke giver yderligere tyngde til argumenterne om, at risikoen er på nedsiden for ECB's vækstskøn. Flere ECB-medlemmer har understreget, at vurderingen af om der skal igangsættes ny stimulans på rentemødet i næste uge blandt andet afhænger af, om vækstudsigterne skal nedjusteres. ECB s Lautenschlaeger talte i går imod flere kvantitative lempelser. De amerikanske statsrenter fulgte først med op, men faldt så efter europæisk lukketid og endte lavere end i går morges dansk tid. Faldet hang nok sammen med skuffelser i både salget af eksisterende boliger og i Markits PMI for fremstillingssektoren. Valuta EUR/USD ligger nogenlunde uændret efter udsving i begge retninger i går. EUR fik ellers god støtte fra en større end ventet stigning i PMI for fremstillingssektoren til det højeste niveau i 4½ år, om end indekset ikke har løftet sig meget over det stabile niveau fra de foregående otte måneder. De amerikanske nøgletal skuffede til gengæld i går. En række råvareafhængige Emerging Markets valutaer svækkedes i går og her til morgen i takt med markante prisfald på især industrimetaller. Det var tilsyneladende ikke en opblødende faktor, at råolieprisen steg efter Saudi-Arabien har gentaget sit ønske som at samarbejde med OPEC og andre olieproducerende lande om at begrænse udbuddet. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 24. november 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 25/11/15 Royal Unibrew 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 23/11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov P /11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Nov P /11/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Nov P /11/15 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct /11/15 15:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Discuss Draft Budgets 23/11/15 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov P /11/15 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Oct 5.40m m 6.36m 24/11/15 02:35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Nov P /11/15 08:00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q F 0.3%/1.7% %/1.7% 24/11/15 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Nov /11/15 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Nov /11/15 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Nov /11/15 12:00 EMU EU to Release Proposal on Deposit Insurance 24/11/15 14:30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Oct -$61.900b -- -$58.633b 24/11/15 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 2.0% % 24/11/15 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Nov /11/15 15:00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.55%/5.18% %/5.09% 24/11/15 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Nov /11/15 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Nov Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.2%/-3.6% %/-4.0% 25/11/15 00:50 Japan BOJ Minutes for Oct 30 Meeting 25/11/15 06:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Nov /11/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Nov /11/15 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Nov /11/15 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Sep % 25/11/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 20. Nov % 25/11/15 14:30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Oct 0.3% % 25/11/15 14:30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.1% % 25/11/15 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Oct P 1.5% % 25/11/15 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Oct P 0.3% % 25/11/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 21. Nov k 25/11/15 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Sep 0.5% % 25/11/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Nov P /11/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22. Nov /11/15 16:00 USA New Home Sales Oct 500k k 25/11/15 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov F /11/15 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 4.8% % 26/11/15 13:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Dec /11/15 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Oct /11/15 00:30 Japan Jobless Rate Oct 3.4% % 27/11/15 00:30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Oct 0.0% % 27/11/15 00:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Oct -0.1% % 27/11/15 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Nov /11/15 02:30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Oct % 27/11/15 06:00 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY Oct % 27/11/15 08:45 Frankrig PPI (MoM/YoY) Oct %/-2.6% 27/11/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Oct % 27/11/15 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q P 0.5%/2.3% %/2.3% 27/11/15 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Nov /11/15 12/03 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct %/3.4% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

4 Research disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ), is responsible for the preparation of research reports. SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, in Finland by the Financial Supervisory of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information that SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accept any liability whatsoever for any loss, however it arises, from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been given to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approval the accuracy of the facts presented. The subject company has not been notified of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. The views contained in SHB research reports are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts at this date and are subject to change. There can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. Each analyst identified in this research report also certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report. Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalised investment advice and such reports or opinions should not be the basis for making investment or strategic decisions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. Analyst compensation is not based on specific corporate finance or debt capital markets services. No part of analysts compensation has been, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. From time to time, SHB and/or its affiliates may provide investment banking and other services, including corporate banking services and securities advice, to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. SHB may also seek corporate finance assignments with such companies. We buy and sell securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may also make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees may own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted Guidelines concerning Research which are intended to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank and to resolve any such conflicts by eliminating or mitigating them and/or making such disclosures as may be appropriate. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Information barriers ) on communications between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The Guidelines concerning Research also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines please see the Bank s website the bank/investor relations/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances. For company-specific disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: When distributed in the UK Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. UK customers should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business nor the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) for the protection of private customers apply to this research report and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). When distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). When distributed by HMSI, HMSI takes responsibility for the report. Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number ( ).

5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC