Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 6. november 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens hovedbegivenhed bliver den amerikanske arbejdsmarkedsrapport for oktober. Vi forventer, at beskæftigelsen vil komme op i tempo igen med en stigning på omkring personer op fra de skuffende personer i september. Selvom der har været tegn på, at beskæftigelsestempoet er kommet ned i gear ind til videre i 2. halvår, så har flere indikatorer peget på, at tempoet kan komme lidt op igen. Det er blevet indikeret af at antallet af nye ledige på overførselsindkomst senest er faldet til det laveste niveau siden Ydermere har ISM s vægtede beskæftigelsesindeks fortsat i denne uge peget på et nyt lille løft i beskæftigelsen (figur), og det samme gælder NFIB s tilsvarende indeks. Læg dertil tegn på, at den offentlige beskæftigelse vil tage til fremover, herunder fra stigende offentlige indtægter, samt at NAHB s indeks har peget på bedring i beskæftigelsen inden for byggeriet. Det bør kompensere lidt for ovennævnte nedgang i den private beskæftigelse inden for især service og fremstillingsvirksomhed. Med hensyn til arbejdsløshedsraten venter konsensus et nyt fald. Vi ser dog nærmere risiko for en stigning i oktober, hvilket er blevet antydet af et fald i Conference Board s arbejdsmarkedsindeks. Ydermere får vi et par taler om økonomi og pengepolitik fra Federal Reserves Brainard og Bullard, som kan vise sig interessante. I euroområdet er der fokus på tysk industriproduktion. Der har senest været en voksende bekymring om tilstanden i industrien, ikke mindst efter den højst uventede af-matning i august i produktion, ordre samt eksport. Der ventes dog kun en lille bedring i september, og det var endda før at vi modtog gårsdagens skuffende fabriksordre (jf. neden for). De seneste fald i industribarometre, herunder både i PMI og IFO, har således ikke signaleret den store aktivitetsbedring foreløbigt, og spørgsmålet er om støtten fra den svagere EUR først på året også så småt er tonet ud. Herhjemme venter vi et fald i industriproduktionen i september oven på den uventede markante stigning i august. Hvis vi får ret vil det betyde, at industrien vil bidrage 0,3%-point mindre til den samlede økonomiske vækst i 3. kvartal. Kina: Søndag morgen offentliggøres kinesiske handelstal, og efter skuffende eksportvækst det meste af i år, ser årsvækstraten ud til at rette sig lidt i oktober (blive mindre negativ), som antydet af oktobers rebound i underindekset for nye eksportordrer i Markits PMI. USA: Tegn på bedring i jobfremgang Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der rådede en vis stilhed på finansmarkederne forud for dagens arbejdsmarkedsrapport fra USA. Aktiemarkederne viste sig fra en let negativ side, men OMXC20CAP fortsætter dog op herhjemme. Olieprisen faldt, mens renterne steg en smule og EUR/USD-krydset trak lidt op efter de seneste par dages fald. USA: Antallet af nye ledige på dagpenge steg lidt overraskende til personer i sidste uge, efter at have holdt sig uventet lavt de forrige par uger indebærende det lavest 4-ugers gennemsnit siden En række Fed-taler indeholdt blandt andet en bemærkning fra Lockhart om, at renteforhøjelse snart er på sin plads. Han understregde dog også at det var snært, og at revideringer i hans forecast for outputgap nemt kan udvide perioden med nulrente. Bloomberg-forbrugertilliden faldt i sidste uge til laveste niveau i syv uger. Storbritannien: Som ventet var der ikke nye beslutninger på rentemødet i Bank of England, og referatet viste igen at blot ét medlem af rentekomiteen stemte for en renteforhøjelse. I den samtidige inflationsrapport sænkede BoE som ventet sine skøn. Nedjusteringen var dog ikke større end, at inflationen fortsat ventes over 2% om to års tid, hvilket antyder at renteforhøjelser bør overvejes tidligere end markedsforventningerne, som efterhånden peger på en første forhøjelse i begyndelsen af Euroområdet: EU-Kommissionen sænkede som ventet sine skøn for vækst og inflation i sin efterårsprognose til hhv. 1,8% og 1,0% for Mens nedjusteringen kan benyttes som pejling for hvad ECB gør med sine prognoser på december-mødet, skal det understreges at EU s opdaterede prognose nu blot er nogenlunde på linje med ECB s skøn fra september (på hhv. 1,8% og 1,1%), og dermed aktuelt ikke peger på behov for yderligere nedjustering. Detailsalget faldt uventet i september med 0,1% m/m mod en ventet lille stigning. Sammen med det seneste fald i forbrugertilliden er der således tegn på, at den seneste robuste fremgang i privatforbruget så småt bremsede op i slutningen af 3. kvartal, som ellers samlet viste sig robust. Tyskland: Fabriksordreindgangen skuffede igen, igen med et nyt fald på omkring 2% m/m i september (3. gang i streg). Det var især eksportordrerne der trak ned. Efter at have steget kraftigere end produktionen i 1. halvår (=lagernedbringelse) er hullet nu lukket (se figur). Sverige: Industriproduktionen stiger markant mere end ventet i september, og sammen med den store stigning i august sender det årsvækstraten op i 6,3% - det højeste i mere end fire år. Norge: Norges Bank fremstod mindre dueagtig på gårsdagens rentemøde end vi havde ventet. Godt nok erkendte banken at økonomien var svagere end ventet, men fremførte den svagere NOK samt den seneste finanspolitiske stimulans ifm. med budgettet for 2016 som modargument. Tyske fabriksordrer i stor rutsjetur Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 6. november 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,66% / indeks 1.004,43) endte i positivt territorium og fulgte dermed strømmen fra de resterende europæiske indeks. Den positive stemning var blandt andet drevet af en svækkelse af euroen mod dollaren efter centralbankchef i den amerikanske centralbank Janet Yellen fortsat indikerede, at en renteforhøjelse på mødet i december måned er i spil. På den danske scene var det endnu engang den igangværende regnskabssæson der var i fokus. I toppen af indekset endte Vestas (+5,21% / kurs 414,10) efter vindmølleproducenten rapporterede et særdeles opløftende regnskab for 3. kvartal 2015, som var meget bedre end ventet. Det betød, at Vestas opjusterede deres forventninger til helåret, mens de annoncerede et aktietilbagekøbsprogram. Det blev kvitterede af markedet, der sendte aktien op i det højeste niveau siden TDC (+2,77% / kurs 38,53) fulgte også godt med efter meddelelsen om, at Oister hæver priserne på de billigste af deres abonnementer. Derudover nød aktien godt af en styrkelse i dollaren. I den anden ende af indekset endte A.P. Møller- Mærsk (-1,72% / kurs ,00) forud for morgendagens regnskab. Renter Der var ikke de store ændringer over dagen på rentemarkederne, hvilket nok især skal ses i sammenhæng med der blev set frem imod dagens vigtige arbejdsmarkedsrapport fra USA. I euroområdet fik vi dog lidt bløde input i form af sænkede økonomiske prognoser fra EU samt lidt skuffende detailsalgstal og skuffende tyske fabriksordrer. En lidt mere duagtig melding fra BoE end ventet trak lidt ned i britiske renter, men smittede ikke rigtig af på tyske og danske renter. Det kunne skyldes at der over det meste af dagen rådede en let positiv stemning på aktiemarkederne. Den blev dog forsuret om eftermiddagen efter USA-børserne åbnede. Senere fik vi en lidt skuffende stigning i antallet af nye ledige i USA, samt lidt lavere end ventet enhedslønomkostninger for Q3. Heller ikke her kunne det tvinge renterne ned. Valuta EUR/USD udviklede sig rimeligt fladt. EUR fik lidt negative input fra sænkede EU-skøn, svagt detailsalg og skuffe tyske fabriksordrer. USD fik for sin del nok heller ikke den store støtte fra svage ledighedstal samt enhedslønomkostninger. JPY blev svækket en smule på trods af en overvejende let negativ stemning på aktiemarkederne. GBP blev svækket efter rentemøde samt inflationsrapport fra BoE. Således var der fortsat 8 mod 1 i rentekomitéen der var for uændret politik, og inflationsrapporten indeholdt nedjusteringer af vækst- og inflationsskøn. NOK blev styrket efter at Norges Bank viste sig lidt mindre dueagtig end hvad der var ventet i markedet på forhånd. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 6. november 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab TDC 3. kvartal Genmab 3. kvartal Coloplast 4. kvartal Bavarian 3. kvartal Lundbeck 3. kvartal North Media 3. kvartal Vestas 3. kvartal Zealand Pharma 3. kvartal A.P. Møller-Mærsk 3. kvartal SimCorp 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct F :45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Oct :30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Oct :00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Oct :30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Oct :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Oct :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct F :00 USA Construction Spending MoM Sep 0.5% % 0.6% :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Oct :00 USA Fed's Williams speaks :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Oct :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Oct :00 USA Factory Orders Sep -0.9% % -1.0% :00 EMU ECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt /2015 USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Oct 17.80m m 18.12m /2015 EMU EU's Moscovici Meets Greek Officials in Athens Nov :45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Oct Japan Consumer Confidence Index Oct :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct F :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Oct :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Sep -0.5%/-3.3% %/-2.6% -0.3%/-3.1% :30 USA Fed's Brainard Speak :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications Oct % -0.8% :15 USA ADP Employment Change Oct 180k k :30 USA Trade Balance Sep -$44.50b -- -$48.33b -$40.81b :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Oct F :00 USA Fed's Yellen Testifies on Bank Regulation :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Oct :30 USA Fed's Dudley Speaks on Economy :50 Japan BOJ Minutes for Oct. 6-7 Meeting :30 USA Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Sep 1%/1.8% %/1.7% -1.7%/1.0% :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct 0%/-1.4% 0%/-1.4% 0.1%/-1.4% 0.1%/-1.4% :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep %/2.4%(r) 2.0%/6.3% :30 Tyskland Markit Germany Construction PMI Oct :00 Norge Deposit Rates 05. nov 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% :10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Oct :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.2%/3.0% -- 0%/2.3% -0.1%/2.9% :00 EMU European Commission Economic Forecasts :00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Nov 375b 375b 375b 375b :00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 05. nov 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% :00 UK Bank of England Inflation Report :30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Oct % :30 USA Dudley, Lagarde, Fischer Speaks :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims Oct K k 276K :30 USA Unit Labor Costs 3Q P 2.2% % 1.4% :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 01. nov :30 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.5%/1.1% %/2.3% :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Oct b :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Sep % 2.7% :30 Sverige Average House Prices Oct m :00 Norge Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep %/3.1% :30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Sep -0.1%/1.3% -- 1%/1.9% :30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 182k 195K 142k :30 USA Unemployment Rate Oct 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% :30 USA Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.2%/2.3% -- 0%/2.2% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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