Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 21. januar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der er rentemøde i den Europæiske Centralbank (ECB) i dag. Vi tror, at eventuelle forventninger til at ECB på januar-mødet vil signalere øget sandsynlighed for yderligere stimulans er for tidlige. ECB vil sandsynligvis give udtryk for tillid til, at de "nye" december-tiltag vil virke, men det kræver mere tid at vurdere. Så tegn på, at ECB giver efter for stigende pres forventes at være begrænsede. Da ECB på decembermødet skuffede finansmarkederne med stimulusomfanget, understregede medlemmer af bestyrelsen i Styrelsesrådet, at ECB leverede præcis, hvad bestyrelsen havde foreslået, og at markedsforventningerne var gået for vidt. Men vi ved, at beslutningen ikke var enstemmig med nogle medlemmer, som stemte for færre stimuli. På den anden side foretrak nogle en rentesænkning på 20 basispunkter i indlånsrenten, og der var bred enighed om, at en revurdering af en udvidelse af de månedlige opkøb i QEprogrammet kunne foretages i fremtiden. Siden sidste rentemøde har økonomien vist tegn på at have udviklet sig ganske godt i overensstemmelse med diverse stemningsbarometre, mens industriproduktionen har skuffet. Endnu vigtigere er den årlige inflation steget mindre end ventet med lavere oliepriser, der har udhulet potentialet for den ventede positive årlige basiseffekt. Derudover har kerneinflationen også vist sig mere afdæmpet, formentlig påvirket af den svagere lønvækst. Begyndelsen af det nye år har budt på en eskalering i Kina-bekymringerne, fald på aktiemarkederne og i olieprisen og markedsbaserede inflationsforventninger er faldet. Den effektive EUR er tilbage på niveauet lige efter december-mødet (se figur), hvilket isoleret set ikke giver støtte til yderligere stigning i inflationen. Fra USA kommer der i dag den regionale industriaktivitetsindikator fra Philadelphia. Der ventes en pæn stigning i Philadelphia Fed s indeks efter det nedreviderede niveau i november, som med -10,2 var det laveste i tre år. Vi ser dog risiko for, at indekset skuffer, ikke mindst efter at Empire-indekset for New York allerede har budt på en markant skuffelse, da det i januar faldt til nyt laveste niveau siden Danmarks Statistik kommer med årets første temperaturmåling på de danske forbrugere i form af forbrugertilliden for januar. Efter at være faldet uafbrudt fra det næsthøjeste niveau nogensinde opgjort i marts og frem til oktober sidste år, bød årets to sidste måneder på lidt mere opløftende læsning med relativt fornuftige stigninger i forbrugertilliden. Årets første uger har imidlertid budt på massiv turbulens på de finansielle markeder, og udviklingen på aktiemarkederne ser ud til at have en relativ stor indflydelse på stemningen i husholdningerne, jf. figur. På den baggrund venter vi, at forbrugertilliden vil blive dæmpet i januar. Der er dog også sæsonmæssige faktorer, der normalt øger tilliden i januar, om end disse faktorer muligvis er blevet mere afdæmpede som følge af tendensen til udsalgskampagner i butikkerne også i perioden op til jul. Vi venter, at forbrugertilliden er steget fra 6,1 til 7,5 i januar. Renset for de sæsonmæssige faktorer er der dog tale om et fald fra 8,5 til 6,4. EUR rimelig uændret siden sidste rentemøde DK: Aktiemarkedet peger på fald i tillid Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Uroen vendte tilbage til markederne i går med dramatisk store aktiekursfald i både Asien og Europa. Olieprisen faldt tilbage under 28 USD/tønde hvor den ellers kun kortvarigt var under mandag morgen. De amerikanske aktiemarkeder lagde også ud med store fald, men en flot slutspurt sent i går aftes dansk tid begrænsede faldene. Asien fulgte i kølvandet på USA med pæne stigninger i nat dansk tid, men i morges vendte Asien rundt, så de fleste markeder i skrivende stund igen ligger i minus. Statsrenterne har fulgt udsvingene i risikoappetitten med store rentefald i Europa og USA i går dansk tid men stigninger i amerikanske renter i går aftes og i nat og nye fald her til morgen. EUR/USD uændret ift. i går men store udsving. USA: Forbrugerpriserne skuffede i december, idet inflationen kun steg til 0,7% y/y fra 0,5% y/y i november. Der var ventet en stigning til 0,8%, primært drevet af basiseffekten i energipriserne. På månedsbasis faldt forbrugerprisindekset med 0,1% m/m, hvor der var ventet uændret indeks. De seneste måneders nye energiprisfald medvirkede til faldet, men renset for fødevarer og energi steg indekset også mindre end ventet med 0,1% m/m. Trods skuffelsen steg kerneinflationen som ventet til 2,1% fra 2,0%. Dermed fortsætter det seneste års tendens til stigning, og det illustrerer godt den underliggende tendens til inflationsstigning, som især er drevet af den øgede indenlandske efterspørgsel samt stigende lønvækst. De svage inflationstal underbygger tendensen i markedet til at forvente færre og færre renteforhøjelser fra Fed i år. Markedet indpriser nu ikke den næste renteforhøjelse før i andet halvår. Byggetilladelserne faldt lidt mindre end ventet, mens det påbegyndte boligbyggeri faldt hvor der var ventet en stigning. Storbritannien: Arbejdsmarkedsrapporten for november viste, at arbejdsløshedsraten faldt til kun 5,1%, det laveste siden 2006 (ILO-opgørelse, 3-måneders glidende gennemsnit). Der var ventet uændret ledighed på 5.2%. Også beskæftigelsesfremgangen kom ud til den stærke side. Til gengæld faldt lønvæksten mere end ventet til 2,0% y/y fra 2,4%. Sammen med fortsat lav inflation er der ikke umiddelbart tegn på, at en renteforhøjelse fra BoE er blevet mere presserende. Kina: Centralbankens (PBoC) har indskudt den største ugentlige mængde likviditet i banksystemet i 3 år. PBoC s cheføkonom Ma udtalte i et interview i går, at likviditetstilførsel er et alternativ til at sænke reservekravet over for bankerne. Der bliver dog i vores øjne stadig brug for reservekravsnedsættelser for at understøtte økonomien i takt med den massive kapitaludstrømning, som dræner likviditet. USA: Kerneinflationen steg trods svage tal For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 21. januar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-3,30% / indeks 923,88) endte gårsdagens handel i negativt terræn. Den negative stemning var især drevet af en faldende oliepris, som fortsat skabte spekulationer om, at faldet i oliens pris delvist skyldes svag vækst i verdensøkonomien. I bunden af indekset endte blandt andet Genmab (-4,35% / kurs 802,50) selvom selskabet tidligere på dagen meddelte, at de amerikanske sundhedsmyndigheder, FDA, har godkendt kræftmidlet Arzerra til forlænget behandling af tilbagevendende kronisk lymfatisk leukæmi. Vestas (-4,22% / kurs 422,60) havde også en hård dag. Det til trods for, at vindmølleproducenten annoncerede en polsk ordre på 56 MW, med en tilhørende 15-årig serviceaftale. Uden for det ledende C20-indeks var NKT Holding (+4,28% / kurs 343,30) i fokus efter det i en artikel i Jyllands Posten blev fremhævet, at NKT Holding skulle have hyret investeringsbanken J. P. Morgan til, at vurdere mulighederne for et frasalg af kabelforretningen, NKT Cables. I løbet af dagen udsendte NKT Holding dog en fondsbørsmeddelelse hvor i de afkræftede, at en proces om frasalg af NKT Cables skulle være i gang.. Renter Faldende risikoappetit i takt med massive råvare- og især olieprisfald sendte investorerne over i de relativt sikre statsobligationer i går. Det fik de tyske og danske 10-årige statsrenter til at falde med hele 7 basispunkter. I den amerikanske handel fortsatte aktiekursfaldene initialt, og de amerikanske renter fulgte de europæiske nedad. Men stemningen vendte i går aftes dansk tid, så de amerikanske aktier og renter steg igen og eliminerede noget af faldet. Renten på den 10-årige amerikanske statsobligation handlet i Japan er dog her til morgen faldet i takt med at den ellers positive markedsstemning i Asien vendte til ny nedtrykthed. Den amerikanske statsrente ligger i skrivende stund nogenlunde på samme niveau som i går morges. Valuta EUR svækkedes i går over for USD i takt med sur stemning på de globale aktiemarkeder og nye oleiprisfald, men er styrket en smule her til morgen. Valutakrydset har dog ligget nogenlunde stabilt, de store udsving på aktiemarkedet taget i betragtning. JPY styrkedes markant i går over for USD, da den aftagende risikoappetit som sædvanligt gjorde JPY relativt mere attraktiv, I nat svækkedes JPY igen, kun for at styrkes her til morgen. Netto ligger JPY her til morgen lidt stærkere end i går morges. RUB svækkedes til det svageste niveau nogensinde over for både USD og EUR i takt med olieprisens fald til under 28 dollar / tønde. HKD er som bekendt pegged overfor USD i et snævert bånd, men nåede i går det svageste niveau over for USD siden 2007, da der spekuleres massivt i at Hongkong kan blive tvunget til at opgive fastkurspolitikken. HKD forblev dog inden for handelsbåndet og genvandt lidt styrke i går aftes. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 21. januar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 19/01/16 Novozymes A/S Helår 21/01/16 Tryg A/S Helår Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 18/01/16 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Jan %/7.4% 0.5%/6.5% 18/01/16 02:30 Kina China December Property Prices 19/01/16 03:00 Kina Industrial Production YoY Dec 6.0% 6.0% 6.2% 5.9% 19/01/16 03:00 Kina Retail Sales YoY Dec 11.3% 11.3% 11.2% 11.1% 19/01/16 03:00 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Dec 10.2% 10.3% 10.2% 10.0% 19/01/16 03:00 Kina GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q 1.8%/6.9% 1.9%/7.0% 1.8%/6.9% 1.6%/6.8% 19/01/16 08:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Dec F -0.1%/0.3% -0.1%/0.3% -0.1%/0.3% -0.1%/0.3% 19/01/16 10:30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.0%/0.2% %/0.1% 0.1%/0.2% 19/01/16 10:30 UK CPI Core YoY Dec 1.2% % 1.4% 19/01/16 11:00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.0%/0.2% %/0.2% 0.0%/0.2% 19/01/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Dec F 0.9% % 0.9% 19/01/16 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Jan /01/16 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Jan /01/16 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Jan (r) 60 20/01/16 Kina Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Dec 3.1% % -5.8% 20/01/16 08:00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.4%/-2.2% %/-2.5% -0.5%/-2.3% 20/01/16 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Nov 5.2% % 5.1% 20/01/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 15. Jan % 9.0% 20/01/16 14:30 USA Housing Starts Dec 1200k k 1149k 20/01/16 14:30 USA Building Permits Dec 1200k k 1232k 20/01/16 14:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.0%/0.8% %/0.5% -0.1%/0.7% 20/01/16 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.2%/2.1% %/2.0% 0.1%/0.7% 21/01/16 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Dec 50% -- 49% 50% 21/01/16 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Jan /01/16 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Jan /01/16 13:45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 21. Jan 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 21/01/16 13:45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 21. Jan -0.30% -0.30% -0.30% 21/01/16 13:45 EMU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 21. Jan 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 21/01/16 14:30 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jan /01/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 16. Jan 278k k 21/01/16 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Jan A /01/16 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.3%/-- 0.1%/-- 0.2%/1.1% 22/01/16 10:00 EMU ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters 22/01/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan P /01/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jan P /01/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan P /01/16 10:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.3%/4.4% %/5.0% 22/01/16 10:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Dec 10.5b b 22/01/16 11:00 EMU Euro Area Third Quarter Government Debt 22/01/16 11:00 EMU Euro Area Third Quarter Government Deficit 22/01/16 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Dec /01/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan P /01/16 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Dec 5.20m m 22/01/16 16:00 USA Leading Index Dec -0.2% % Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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