Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 16. december 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det synes nu ganske sikkert, at Federal Reserve på aftenens rentemøde vil hæve styringsrenten for første gang i ni år. Vi forventer således, at Fed løfter området for Fed funds renten til 0,25%-0,75% fra de nuværende 0%-0,25%, svarende til en renteforhøjelse på 0,25%- point. Fed-chef Yellen Yellen har for nyligt signaleret dette. Således vurderede hun for nyligt, at de økonomiske udsigter er tilstrækkeligt gode til at bedringen på arbejdsmarkedet fortsætter og at det vil medvirke til at inflationen vil nå op på 2% s målet. Fokus vil således være på Fed s signaler for det fremtidige opstramningstempo, og vi føler os overbeviste om, at Fed vil gøre en dyd ud af at understrege den meget gradvise tilgang til rente-forhøjelser. Det kan blive understreget ved, at FOMC-medlemmerne eventuelt sænker sine dot-plot - forventninger for den fremtidige rente, eventuelt baseret på en samtidig sænkning af inflationsestimaterne og/eller endnu en gang af den langsigtede ligevægtsledighed. Ydermere mere bliver det interessant, hvorledes Fed ønsker at kommunikere om tempoet i renteforhøjelserne, men det er nok temmelig sikkert, at den vil gøre tempoet afhængigt af udfaldet af de økonomiske data. I den forbindelse vil det nok igen blive fremført, at renten ventes at stige langsommere end hvad der normalt har været tilfældet i en renteforhøjelses-cyklus. Fed kan således meget vel vælge en strategi, hvor den vil overdrive den gradvise tilgang til højere renter for at begrænse den initiale effekt på finansmarkederne af at renteopstramningerne nu langt om længe er i gang. Argumentet vil sandsynligvis være, at Fed vil være mere sikker på, at inflationen vil opfylde målet på 2%. I år har dette argument fået ekstra vægt fra de lave råvare-priser kombineret med den stærke USD. Vi mener dog, at den initiale effekt stort set bør være fuldt indpriset, i overensstemmelse med at Fed funds futuren viser 80% s sandsynlighed for en renteforhøjelse på 0,25%-point. Ser vi frem mod de kommende år, var Fed s seneste renteskøn fra september noget højere end vores aktuelle skøn samt det, der indpriset på finansmarkederne. Det kan betyde, at der skal en væsentlig reduktion af Fed s renteskøn til for at markederne ikke tager udfaldet negativt op. Fra euroområdet modtager vi PMI-indeks fra Markit angående december. Vi forventer at det sammensatte PMI vil stige en smule til 54,5 fra 54,2 i november. På den ene side synes der stadig at være yderligere støtte til service PMI-indekset fra et skyhøjt niveau for ECFIN s detailtillidsindeks, understøttet af lavere oliepriser. På den anden side har detailsalget skuffet markant i oktober, og tempoet i den faldende arbejdsløshed er aftaget. PMIfremstillingsindekset burde fortsat have en chance for at blive understøttet af lavere oliepriser samt en svagere EUR. Derudover er der fortsat et lidt mat indtryk af industristemningen globalt med fortsatte fald i USA s fremstillingsindeks, mens Kina stadig ikke formår at vise klare tegn på en stabilisering. Endelig skuffede ECB på det seneste rentemøde, hvilket kan begrænse optimismen, men dette var dog ikke specielt tydeligt i de seneste investor barometre Sentix og ZEW (jf. neden for). Derudover får vi britisk arbejdsmarkedsrapport, revideret HICP fra euroområdet samt påbegyndt boligbyggeri og industriproduktion fra USA. USA: Feds september renteskøn fremstår høje FOMC's medianforventning for Fed funds renten, i % ultimo Fed SHB Futures Kilde: Federal Reserve, Handelsbanken Capital Markets, Bloomberg Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne bedres op til Fed-rentemøde. Oliepris og statsrenter stiger og USD styrkes. USA: Forbrugerprisinflationen steg en tand mere end ventet i november til 0.5% y/y fra forrige 0.2% y/y. Det var ventet at årsbasiseffekten fra sidste års olieprisfald nu for alvor begynder at hive op i inflation. Samtidigt steg kerneinflationen som ventet til 2.0% fra forrige 1.9%, og vi skal nu mere end tre år tilbage for at finde højere inflation. Der er således tegn på, at den indenlandske skabte inflation i stigende grad trækker op, hvilket er bedre i overensstemmelse med udviklingen i ledigheden (se figur). Tallene får dog nok ikke den store betydning for udfaldet af rentemødet i aften, og man skal være opmærksom på at Fed s tidligere foretrukne inflationsmål PCE Core fortsat befinder sig på et noget lavere niveau. Empire-fremstillingsindekset steg mere end ventet i december. Men selvom det var fjerde måned med stigning i træk befinder indekset sig på et lavt niveau i forhold først halvår. NAHB-indekset skuffede med endnu et fald i december, hvilket dog ikke ændrer på at indekset fortsat er tæt på det højeste niveau i ti år som det nåede i oktober. Repræsentanternes Hus får budgetaftale på plads for næste år indeholdende annullering af eksportforbud på olie mod forlængelse af skatterabatter for vedvarende energi. Der stemmes sandsynligvis om aftalen i begge Kongressens kamre torsdag. Japan: Nikkei PMI-fremstillingsindekset var stort i december på 52,6, og dermed stort set uændret for anden måned i streg. Tyskland: Det investorbaserede konjunkturbarometer fra ZEW steg i december mere end ventet. Det var især forventningsindekset som steg, hvilket var anden måned i streg oven på det massive fald de forrige syv måneder. Det skete på trods af de seneste pæne kursfald på aktiemarkederne kombineret med det skuffende ECB-rentemøde. Således ser der ud til at være en grundlæggende stabilisering i indekset, hvilket nok har fået hjælp af nye olieprisfald samt at ECB trods alt kom med nye tiltag. Storbritannien: Forbrugerprisinflationen steg i november mere end ventet til 0,1% y/y fra forrige -0,1% y/y. Således er det første gang at inflationen er positiv i fire måneder. Inflationen ventes at fortsætte opad de kommende måneder, dog bremset af de seneste olieprisfald kombineret med øget produktivitet. Sverige: Rentemødet resulterede som ventet ikke i nye lempelsestiltag fra Riksbanken, ligesom den heller ikke sænkede den ventede rentesti, som fortsat peger på en stabil rente ind til 1. halvår 2017, hvor der ventes en første renteforhøjelse. USA: Tydeligere tegn på øget inflationspres Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 16. december 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,89% / indeks 1.009,32) endte i et pænt positivt territorium og fik dermed brudt de seneste 5 dages negative trend. Det betød, at næsten alle aktier i det ledende danske aktieindeks endte i positivt terræn. Dagens kursmæssige vinder blev Nordea (+4,29% / kurs 74,15) og dermed fulgte banken den positive udvikling, som de europæiske banker var inde i, i dagens handel. Den pæne fremgang kommer efter en del modvind, som de nordiske banker har været inde i, efter flere udenlandske investorer netop har påpeget den lave toplinjevækst som en bekymring. Coloplast (+2,93% / kurs 544,00) fulgte godt med efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. Vestas (+2,11% / kurs 455,50) endte også højere efter selskabet modtog en forlængelse af en serviceaftale i Polen med 14 år. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,71% / kurs 9.215,00) til trods for at olieprisen steg i dagens handel. Renter Renterne på statsobligationer i Europa steg ganske pænt tirsdag, hvilket især hang sammen med en bedring på aktiemarkederne kombineret med stigende oliepriser. Det blev især set som en korrektion op mod rentemødet i USA i aften, hvor der trods alt ventes en renteforhøjelse med baggrund i en bedre amerikansk økonomi. Derudover var der lidt medvind fra højere end ventet tysk ZEWindeks i december samt højere britisk inflation. USA bød senere ind med en lidt større stigning i forbrugerprisinflationen end ventet, hvilket sammen med et lidt stærkere Empireindeks gav renterne et ekstra nøk op om eftermiddagen. På den anden side bremsede et svagere end ventet NAHB-indeks rentestigningen en smule. Valuta EUR blev styrket først på dagen hjulpet af en større-end-ventet stigning i det tyske ZEWindeks. Senere vendte udviklingen i overensstemmelse med bedring på aktiemarkederne, hvilket støttede USD op til aftenens rentemøde. USA-nøgletallene bød derudover på en stigning i forbrugerprisinflationen samt Empire-indekset, hvilket gav ekstra styrke til USD. EUR/USD-krydset endte således tirsdagen lavere. JPY blev svækket mod USD som følge af bedringen på aktiemarkederne der øgede risikoappetitten. GBP blev svækket mod EUR, hvilket skete til trods for at CPI-inflationen viste sig lidt højere end ventet. SEK blev styrket efter at Riksbanken var på standby på sit rentemøde, og nogle iagttagere havde ventet en form for lempeligere politik. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 16. december 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab SAS AB Årsregnskab Flügger 2. kvartal Harboes Bryggeri 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :30 Kina Retail Sales (YoY) Nov 11.1% % 11.2% :30 Kina Industrial Production (YoY) Nov 5.7% % 6.2% :30 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) Nov 10.1% % 10.2% :50 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Index 4Q :01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Dec %/6.2% -1.1%/-1.3% :30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Oct F %/-1.4% 1.4%/-1.4% :00 EMU Industrial Production SA (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.2%/1.2% 0.3%/ -0.3%/1.7% 0.6%/1.9% :00 EMU ECB's Draghi Speaks :00 EMU ECB's Costa, Krugman Speaks :00 EMU EU27 New Car Registrations Nov % 13.7% :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 15. dec -0.35% -0.35% -0.35% -0.35% :30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov -0.1%/0.0% %/-0.1% 0.1%/0.1% :30 UK CPI Core (YoY) Nov 1.1% % 1.2% :30 UK ONS House Price (YoY) Oct % 7.0% :00 EMU Employment (QoQ/YoY) 3Q %/0.8% :00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Dec :00 EMU ZEW Survey Expectations Dec :30 USA Empire Manufacturing Dec :30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.0%/0.4% %/0.2% 0.0%/0.5% :30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.2%/2.0% %/1.9% 0.2%/2.0% :30 USA Real Avg Weekly Earnings (YoY) Nov % 1.6% :00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Dec :00 USA Net Long-term TIC Flows Oct $33.6b -$16.6b :00 Japan Nikkei PMI manufacturing DEC P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Dec P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Dec P :30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Oct 5.3% % :00 EMU Trade Balance SA Oct b :00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov F -0.2%/0.1% -0.2%/0.1% 0.1%/0.1% :00 EMU CPI Core (YoY) Nov F 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 11. dec % :30 USA Housing Starts Nov 1130k k :30 USA Building Permits Nov 1153k k :15 USA Industrial Production (MoM) Nov -0.2% % :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Dec P :00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 16. dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.25% :00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 16. dec 0.25% 0.25% 0.00% :50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Nov b b :45 Frankrig Business Confidence Dec :30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Nov % 7.2% :00 Norge Deposit Rate Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.75% :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Dec :30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.5%/3.0% %/3.8% :00 EMU Construction Output (MoM/YoY) Oct %/1.8% :00 EMU Labour Costs (YoY) 3Q % :00 Grækenland Unemployment Rate 3Q 24.7% % :00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Dec :30 USA Current Account Balance 3Q -$123.0b -- -$109.7b :30 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Dec :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 12. dec k :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 13. dec :45 USA Bloomberg Economic Expectations Dec :00 USA Leading Index Nov 0.1% % Japan BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base 18. dec t Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement :00 Norge Unemployment Rate Dec 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% :00 EMU ECB Current Account SA Oct b :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Dec P :45 USA Markit US Composite PMI Dec P :00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Dec :00 USA Fed's Lacker gives 2016 Economic Outlook Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC