Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 8. september 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Blandt nøgletallene i USA vil der være fokus på NFIB s aktivitetsindeks for de mindre virksomheder. Indekset er overordnet faldet tilbage siden årsskiftet, men en lille stigning i juli betød, at indekset akkurat var over grænseværdien for fremgang og tilbagegang, som bedømmes til at være på 95,0. Vi forventer en ny stigning i august-indekset i overensstemmelse med den mere positive udvikling vi har set i forbrugertilliden samt detailsalget. Igen vi der fokus på beskæftigelsesindekset, som har peget på fortsat stabil beskæftigelsesudvikling i de seneste opgørelser. Ydermere vil vurderingen af lønudviklingen igen få ekstra opmærksomhed, ikke mindst efter at indekset steg markant i juli-opgørelsen (se figur). I USA skal Fed s Kocherlakota tale om pengepolitik. Han er kendt som due, men er ikke aktuelt medlem af rentekomitéen FOMC. Derudover kan der være lidt fokus på tyske eksporttal, revidering af BNPtal for euroområdet i 2. kvartal og herhjemme har vi lidt opmærksomhed rettet mod handels- og betalingsbalancetal for juli. USA: NFIB s lønindeks yderligere opad? Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Stille mandag påvirket af USA-lukket. Europas aktiemarkeder udviser en let stigning mens græske renter falder markant. Til morgen falder børserne i Asien tilbage efter handelstal fra Kina, men US-futures viser lille stigning efter lukningen på USA-børserne i går. JPY-svækkes. Kina: Handelstallene bød på et øget overskud i august, idet eksporten faldt i et lidt lavere tempo end frygtet med 5,5% y/y, samtidigt med at importen faldt noget kraftigere end ventet med 13,8% y/y. Selvom handelsvæksten således stadig er negativ var tallene ikke så svage som frygtet. Handelsaktiviteten var således sandsynligvis præget af havneulykken i Tianjin samt det seneste fald i råvarepriserne. At eksportsituationen ikke var så slem som frygtet skyldes dog næppe CNY-devalueringen i sidste måned, da det er for tidligt, og størrelsen af devalueringen var for beskeden til at få mærkbar effekt. Japan: BNP-væksten i 2. kvartal oprevideres til -0,3% q/q fra forrige - 0,4%, mens der var ventet en nedrevidering. Samtidigt viste fremtidsbarometreret fra de økonomiske iagttagere dog en større svækkelse end ventet i august til det laveste niveau i år. Euroområdet: Sentix s investorbaserede konjunkturbarometer faldt i august noget mere end ventet til det laveste niveau i syv måneder. Således er det tydeligt at den seneste uro med korrektion ned i aktiekurser samt en stærkere EUR har gjort investorerne mindre optimistiske på de økonomiske udsigter. ECB s QE-opkøb faldt i august til EUR 51,5 mia.. Det var det laveste siden opkøbsprogrammets start, og det fremhæver problemer med at leve op til målet på EUR 60 mia.. Spørgsmålet er om det skyldes sommerstilhed på markederne eller mere fundamentale problemer med at finde egnede opkøbskandidater? Tyskland: Industriproduktionen steg mindre end ventet i juli med 0,7% m/m, men det skete efter at faldet i juni viste sig knapt så stort efter en revidering. Selvom det var den største stigning i produktionen i år, er det stadig svært at få øje på en grundlæggende bedringstendens i aktivitet sådan som der har været forsigtige tegn på i PMI-indekset. Danmark: Industriproduktionen faldt med hele 3,7% m/m i juli, hvilket var større end ventet. Noget af faldet skyldes den meget volatile medicinalindustri, men selv renset for dette var der tale om en tilbagegang på 2,1% m/m. Således tog industrien negativt fat på Q3, og store lagre i forhold til efterspørgslen vurderes fortsat at sætte industrien under pres. Efter en overraskende stærk udvikling i juli, kom dankortforbruget ned på jorden igen i august. Det samlede dankortforbrug udviklede fladt over måneden, men hvis man tager højde for sæsonmæssige forhold, tendensen til at dankortet benyttes mere og mere samt at der i stigende grad sker pengeoverførsler med dankort via mobilen, så var der tale om et relativt stort fald i denne forbrugsindikator. Kina: Handelsvækst stadig negativ Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. september 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,10% / indeks 964,85) endte ugens første dag med moderate fald. Fra morgenstunden var der blevet offentliggjort tyske industriproduktionstal fra juli, som viste en stigning på 0,5% og en oprevidering af væksten fra måneden før til 0,9% fra 0,6%. Det var understøttende for en positiv start på gårsdagens handel. Men grundlæggende var stemningen afventende på en dag hvor det amerikanske marked holdt lukket. Investorernes fokus var fortsat på de kinesiske vækstbekymringer. Derfor var investorernes generelt set afventende forud for ugens opgørelser af nøgletal fra Kina. Blandt disse kan blandt andet nævnes import/eksporttal, inflation, detailsalg og industriproduktion. I toppen af det ledende danske indeks endte blandt andet Genmab (+4,00% / kurs 637,00) der fredag aften annoncerede, at selskabets cancermiddel Daramutamab havde fået priority review af de amerikanske sundhedsmyndigheder (FDA). Det betyder i praksis, at inden der er gået 6 måneder skal FDA have afsluttes godkendelsesansøgningen for Daramutamab. I modsatte ende af indekset endte FLSmidth (-2,10% / kurs 237,50) som fik sin anbefaling sænket til Sælg fra tidligere Sælg af en nordisk investeringsbank. Kursmålet blev også sænket fra 365 kr. til 250 kr. Renter Mandagen var rimelig stille på obligationsmarkederne, påvirket af markedslukket i USA. De tyske renter trak lidt nedad først på dagen, hvilket blev understøttet af et uventet stort fald i Sentix s konjunkturbarometer for august kombineret med at tysk industriproduktion ikke helt steg i det ventede omfang i juli. Senere på dagen vendte renteudviklingen til en lille stigning i tyske og danske toneangivende renter, hjulpet af en let positiv stemning på aktiemarkederne. I manglen på vigtige internationale økonomiske begivenheder var der også lidt fokus på Grækenland, hvor afgående PM Tsipras udtalte, at han var overbevist om at landet vil returnere til positiv vækst i 1. halvår af Derudover var han sikker på, at landet vil blive ledet sikkert på den anden side af valget trods den store usikkerhed. De græske renter faldt markant til det laveste niveau siden februar. Valuta Stille dag på valutamarkederne som følge af at der var markedslukket i USA, hvor man fejrede Labor Day. EUR/USD-krydset udviklede sig stort set fladt. Til morgen bliver EUR dog styrket over for USD, hvilket kan skyldes en mere sur stemning på Asien-børserne til morgen. En let positiv aktiestemning betød imidlertid at JPY blev svækket en smule. Til morgen kunne en oprevidering af Japans BNP-tal for 2. kvartal ikke ændre på dette. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. september 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab SAS 3. kvartal Harboes Bryggeri 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender D ato T id Land Indikato r P erio de Survey SH B F o rrige F aktisk Kina Foreign Reserves Aug $3580.0B $3651.3B $3551.3B :00 Japan Leading Index CI Jul P :00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA (M om /YoY) Jul 1.1%/0.3% 1.0%/ %/0.9% 0.7%/0.5% :00 Danmark Industrial Production (M om ) Jul -0.9% -2.0% 3.4% -3.7% :30 EM U Sentix Investor Confidence Sep Kina Exports/Imports (YoY) Aug -6.5%/-8.0% %/-8.1% -5.5%/-13.8% :01 UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) Aug 0.5% % -1.0% :50 Japan Trade Balance BoP Basis Jul B B 108.0B :50 Japan GDP SA (QoQ) 2Q F -0.5% % -0.3% :00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Aug :00 Tyskland Exports/Imports SA (M om ) Jul 1.0%/0.7% %/-0.8% :00 Tyskland Labor Costs SA (QoQ/YoY) 2Q %/3.2% :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Aug :45 Frankrig Budget Balance YTD Jul B :45 Frankrig Trade Balance Jul -3100M M :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jul 6.5B 6.0B 6.3B :00 Danmark Current Account NSA Jul 10.1B 11.5B 8.3B :00 EM U GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 2Q P 0.3%/1.2% %/1.2% :00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug :00 USA Labor M arket Conditions Index Change Aug :00 USA Consumer Credit Jul $18.600B -- $20.740B :15 USA Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks :00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Aug :30 UK Industrial Production (M om /YoY) Jul 0.1%/1.4% %/1.5% :30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/M n Jul :00 USA M BA M ortgage Applications 04. sep % :00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Aug % :00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Jul :01 UK RICS House Price Balance Aug 46% -- 44% :50 Japan M achine Orders (M om /YoY) Jul 3.3%/10.3% %/16.6% :30 Kina CPI (YoY) Aug 1.9% % :20 Frankrig Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 2Q F 0.1% % :45 Frankrig Industrial Production (M om /YoY) Jul 0.2%/0.6% %/0.6% :00 Danmark CPI (M om /YoY) Aug -0.1%/0.7% -0.2%/0.6% -0.1%/0.7% :00 Danmark CPI Harmonized (M om /YoY) Aug -0.2%/0.6% -0.3%/0.5% -0.1%/0.5% :00 Spanien Industrial output SA (YoY) Jul 4.3% % :30 Sverige Average house prices Aug M :30 Sverige CPI (M om /YoY) Aug -0.2%/-0.1% -0.2%/-0.1% 0.0%/-0.1% :30 Sverige CPI CPIF (M om /YoY) Aug -0.1%/0.9% -0.1%/0.8% 0.1%/0.9% :00 Grækenland Unemployment rate Jun % :00 Portugal CPI (M om /YoY) Aug %/0.8% :00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Sep 375B 375B 375B :00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 10. sep 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% :30 USA Import Price Index (M om /YoY) Aug -1.6%/-11.1% %/-10.4% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 05. sep 275K K :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06. sep :00 USA Wholesale Inventories (M om ) Jul 0.3% % :00 Tyskland Wholesale Price Index (M om /YoY) Aug %/-0.% :00 Tyskland CPI (M om /YoY) Aug F 0.0%/0.2% %/0.2% :00 Spanien CPI Core (M om /YoY) Aug %/0.8% :30 Sverige Unemployment rate SA Aug 7.4% 7.4% 7.3% :30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F 1.0%/3.0% 1.0%/3.0% 1.0%/3.0% :00 Italien Industrial Production (M om /YoY) Jul 0.8%/ %/-0.3% :30 UK Construction Output SA (M om /YoY) Jul 0.5%/0.9% %/2.6% :30 Rusland Key Rate 11. sep 11.0% % :30 USA PPI Final Demand (M om /YoY) Aug -0.1%/-0.9% %/-0.8% :30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (M om /YoY) Aug 0.1%/0.7% %/0.6% :00 USA U. of M ich. Sentiment Sep P :00 USA M onthly Budget Statement Aug -$83.6B Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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