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1 26. oktober 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagen byder på en række USA-nøgletal, herunder Markits Service-PMI, hvor der ventes en lille stigning til 52,5 i oktober, hvilket nok henter lidt inspiration fra ISM s overraskende store stigning i september. Derudover får vi lidt nyheder fra boligmarkedet i form af salget af nye boliger, hvor der vente et lille fald i september. Det vurderes dog ikke at ændre meget på det robuste indtryk oven på den seneste overraskende stærke udvikling over sommeren. I den forbindelse har realkreditansøgninger i forbindelse med boligkøb antydet en svagere udvikling (se figur), og vi modtager også opdaterede tal for disse i sidste uge. Ydermere byder USA ind med tal for handelsbalancen og engroslagrene. Euroområdet byder ind med de seneste nationale opgørelser over forbrugertilliden i Tyskland og Frankrig, hvor der begge steder ventes en rimelig stabil udvikling i overensstemmelse med den lille stigning vi så i ECFIN s foreløbige opgørelse over den aggregerede forbrugertillid i euroområdet i oktober. USA: Boligsalget har toppet for nuværende Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne lagde positivt ud tirsdag men stemningen forsuredes i løbet af dagen og vi endte med fald i Europa (og især herhjemme). USA.børser fulgte med ned efter lidt skuffende regnskaber (bla. fra Apple Inc.) og svigtende forbrugertillid. Olieprisen faldt markant efter at Rusland meldte ud at landet ikke vil deltage i OPEC s planlagte produktionsnedskæringer. Renteudviklingen rimelig endt rimeligt fladt. Til morgen fortsætter den negative stemning på børserne i Asien, især blandt energiselskaber. USA: Som ventet faldt forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board tilbage i oktober, men faldet viste sig større end ventet. Tilliden er dog fortsat robust (se figur) men faldet mere end udviskede de to forrige måneders pæne fremgang. Det var ventet at højere energipriser og en lidt mere negativ udvikling på aktiemarkederne ville nedtone tilliden (som allerede set i andre tillidsopgørelser), og derudover var det værd at bemærke, at vurderingen af forholdende på arbejdsmarkedet blev forværret. Eventuelt kan det større end ventet fald skyldes en vis usikkerhed frem mod præsidentvalget i næste måned. Derudover modtog vi lidt boligprisstatistikker fra FHFA samt S&P/CaseShiller, som begge viste lidt større prisstigninger end ventet i august, hvor især FHFA s priser udmærkede sig med den største stigning i fem måneder. Endelig fik vi endnu et regionalt fremstillingsindeks denne gang fra Richmond Fed som viste en lille stigning i oktober. Euroområdet: Vi fik et par nationale erhvervstillidsindeks fra Tyskland og Frankrig. Det tyske Ifo spejlede den positive overraskelse i PMI forleden, da det uventet (igen) steg mere end ventet i oktober til det højeste niveau siden april Dermed er der også herfra tegn på øget aktivitetsfremgang i begyndelsen af 4. kvartal samt at svaghederne i 3. kvartal blot var midlertidige. Og det var især da også især forventningerne til den økonomiske udvikling i de kommende tre måneder som trak i vejret. Det franske INSEE-indeks kunne ikke levere en tilsvarende overraskelse, da det i oktober bevægede sig sidelæns som ventet, men fra et nedrevideret niveau i september. Således har dette indeks stort set udviklet sig stabilt det seneste år. Til gengæld var der godt nyt fra Frankrigs arbejdsmarked, da den store og bekymrende stigning i ledigheden i august blev mere end reverseret i august, hvor ledigheden via et rekordstort fald næsten nåede ned i det laveste niveau i to år. USA: Tillid peger fortsat på robust forbrug Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. oktober 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (-0,94% / indeks 1.036,54) endte i negativt territorium efter de amerikanske forbrugertillidstal fra Conference Board faldt mere end ventet i oktober. I bunden af indekset endte blandt andet Novo Nordisk (-1,84% / kurs 276,90) efter at have ligget i positivt terræn fra begyndelsen af handel idet et nordisk finanshus havde hævet anbefalingen på aktien. Senere på dagen rapporterede Eli Lilly deres kvartalsregnskab, som på ny satte fokus på prispresset på diabetesmedicin i USA. Det øgede bekymringerne forud for Novo Nordisks kvartalsregnskab på fredag. I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr. Hansen Holding (+1,42% / kurs 386,60) forud for morgendagens rapportering af selskabets regnskab for 4. kvartal 2015/16.. Renter Obligationsrenterne svingede i løbet af tirsdagen mellem plus og minus, og endte stort set uændret i Europa (herunder Tyskland og Danamark). Først på dagen var der ellers støtte til renteudviklingen fra et positivt udfald af det tyske Ifo-indeks, men på den anden side viste fransk erhvervstillid sig lidt lavere end ventet. I løbet af dagen vendte stemningen på aktiemarkederne til negativ og det trak ned i renterne. USA-nøgletal kunne ikke bremse denne udvikling, idet forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board faldt mere end ventet i oktober, og så betød det mindre at et par boligprisindeks viste sig fra en mere positiv side end ventet. Sammen med et fald i olieprisen endte USA-renterne dagen med et lille fald. Valuta EUR endte tirsdagen med en lille styrkelse mod USD på en dag hvor vi fik et ganske positivt udfald af det tyske Ifo-indeks i oktober, men det spejlede naturligvis stigningen vi så i PMI forleden. Det franske erhvervstillidsbarometer viste sig samtidigt en tand lavere end ventet og stemningen på de europæiske aktiemarkeder forsuredes i løbet af dagen. Omvendt modtog vi positive ledighedstal fra Frankrig. USD blev dog senere svækket efter et større fald i forbrugertilliden end ventet, om end tilliden fortsat befinder sig på et robust niveau. Positivt overraskende boligprisstigninger samt en stigning i Richmond Fed indekset betød således mindre for USD. JPY blev svækket endnu en dag mod EUR på trods af den lidt overordnede lidt negative stemning som herskede på finansmarkederne. Det kunne skyldes spekulationer (bla. på Bloomberg New) om at BoJ venter med at foretage en pengepolitisk lempelse ind til Fed hæver renten for at få maksimal effekt på via en mulig JPY-svækkelse. GBP blev ligeledes svækket mod EUR tirsdag.det på trods af at BoE-chef Carney i høring udtalte, at der er grænser for hvor meget man vil se igennem fingre med et inflations-overshoot. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA USD/DKK Euroland EUR/DKK UK GBP/DKK Danmark CHF/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. oktober 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Parken Sport & Entertainmant A/S 3. kvartal Novozymes A/S 3. kvartal Chr. Hansen Holding A/S Helårsregnskab Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S 3. kvartal Jyske Bank A/S 3. kvartal Tivoli A/S 3. kvartal Novo Nordisk A/S 3. kvartal Danske Bank A/S 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Sep 211.0b b 349.0b :30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P :00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Oct :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Sep (r) :00 Kina Conference Board Leading Index :00 USA Fed's Dudley and Bullard Speaks :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P :30 USA Fed's Evans and Powell Speaks :45 Frankrig Business Confidence Oct (r) :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Oct :00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Aug 0.5% % 0.7% :00 USA S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.10%/5.05% %/4.98%(r) 0.24%/5.13% :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Oct (r) :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct :30 EMU ECB President Draghi Speaks :00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Sep :20 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks :45 Kina Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment Oct :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Nov :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Oct :00 Italien Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.4%/0.5% %/-0.2% :30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Sep :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 21. okt % :30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep -$60.8b -- -$59.2b :30 USA Wholesale Inventories (MoM) Sep P 0.1% % :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Oct P :00 USA New Home Sales Sep 600k k :30 Kina Industrial Profits (YoY) Sep % :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Aug 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Oct :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 27. okt -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% :00 Norge Deposit Rates 27. okt 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% :00 EMU M3 Money Supply (YoY) Sep 5.1% % :00 Italien Manufacturing Confidence Oct :30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.3%/2.1% %/2.1% :30 USA Durable Goods Orders Sep P 0.1% % :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Sep P -0.1% % :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 22. okt 255k k :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 23. okt :00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 1.1%/ %/4.0% :00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct :00 EMU ECB's Mersch Speaks :30 Japan Jobless Rate Sep 3.1% % :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Sep -0.5% % :30 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.3%/1.2% %/1.3% :00 Norge Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel (MoM) Sep 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% :45 Frankrig CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.2%/0.6% %/0.5% :00 Spanien CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P --/0.3% %/0.2% :00 Spanien GDP (QoQ/YoY) Q3 P 0.7%/3.1% %/3.2% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Oct :30 EMU ECB's Coeure Speaks :30 Sverige Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.3%/2.7% 0.7%/3.0% 0.6%/2.8% :00 Norge Unemployment Rate Oct 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% :00 EMU Economic Confidence Oct :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.1%/0.7% %/0.7% :30 USA Employment Cost Index 3Q 0.6% % :30 USA GDP Annualized (QoQ) 3Q A 2.5% % :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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6 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Eldestrand Head of Debt Capital Markets Sweden Måns Niklasson Head of Corporate Loans and Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Lars Henriksson Foreign Exchange Strategist Macro Research Ann Öberg Chief Economist Jimmy Boumediene Head of Forecasting Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman E. Europe, Emerging Markets, Japan Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research, Norway; UK Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Senior Economist, Norway Halfdan Grangård Senior Economist, Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Jaan Kivilo Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Fredrik Lundgren Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC